A Veteran's Warning on Asia's Private Credit Risks

The post-pandemic era transformed private credit into one of the hottest areas in finance as investors chased double-digit returns, creating a multi-trillion-dollar industry. Now, the narrative is quickly shifting as default rates climb, high-profile bankruptcies expose hidden leverage, and some major funds suddenly freeze withdrawals. So just how worried should we be, and what about Asian private credit specifically?

Steve Smith, co-founder of Maybole Capital Partners and a finance veteran who has weathered eight credit cycles over his 40-year career, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. He outlines why he believes Asia is already in the "bust" phase of the credit cycle and explains why the region's bespoke, multi-jurisdictional private credit market is inherently riskier than the highly standardized US market. Smith also discusses his family office's strategic investments, highlighting catastrophe bonds as an alternative fixed-income asset offering highly consistent, uncorrelated returns.

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