Bets on Brazil

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeats Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday's runoff, catching prediction markets off guard after weeks of gains in Brazilian assets priced around a Bolsonaro win. Stock ETFs, the real, and bonds all look set to reverse sharply. Elsewhere, France narrowly escapes a Moody's credit downgrade even as street protests resume in Paris for a second weekend.

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Today's recommended read: How Trump's energy dominance turned into hubris, Ron Bousso

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