Flies to Poop
Notes de l’épisode
The Houthis have an email address. You send them your ship's name, your transponder number, and they send you back a bank account. It's all very cultured. And the Iranians could have taken oil to $200 back in March but... They didn't. The Houthis could have flattened the East-West Pipeline seven years ago but... They didn't. So when everybody on Twitter is losing their toupees over Brent at 110, ask the better question: not what could happen, but why it hasn't. This is piracy, not jihad. These guys want to get P - A - I - D.
Plus: Brussels quietly builds a fake 28th country, and Sam Altman melting GPUs is just regulatory capture in a hoodie.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Travel-Mode Quick Intro
(00:44) - Pipelines Hit and Houthis Return
(02:24) - Piracy Logic and Getting Paid
(03:18) - Targeting Precision and IRGC Help
(05:15) - China Rumors and BRICS Diplomacy
(06:50) - Backchannel Talks and US Pullback
(09:57) - Oil Prices and Gulf Infighting
(12:04) - Midterms Leverage Debate
(19:16) - Capabilities Aren't New
(23:13) - Energy Diversification Reality Check
(24:26) - World Adapts to Tanker Wars
(25:07) - EU Speech Reality Check
(25:59) - EU Inc and Tax Plans
(28:04) - Single Market Stalled
(30:19) - Two Speed Europe Shift
(31:24) - Telecom Scale Problem
(33:45) - Will Europe Execute
(34:58) - Why This Time Different
(38:20) - Ukraine in the Revival
(41:43) - Freeze Conflict Strategy
(45:33) - AI Regulation Capture
(49:30) - China World Models Next
(50:46) - Wrap and Next Episode
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro