The Second Derivative
Notes de l’épisode
The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging
(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream
(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea
(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal
(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals
(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit
(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears
(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs
(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality
(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy
(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk
(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking
(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click
(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology
(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era
(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks
(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze
(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers
(58:30) - Politics And The Fed
(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals
(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics
(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth
(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update
(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns
(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space
(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview
(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard
(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions
(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate
(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro