Global Trade Deciphered

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In this exclusive episode of Global Trade Deciphered, Justin Hayden Miller is joined by Chad Bown, former Chief Economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden-Harris and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Soumaya Keynes, leading FT columnist and former Economics Editor at The Economist, and

They dissect the real mechanics of trade wars in 2026: President Trump’s tariffs on almost everyone, the deeper China challenge, the breakdown of the WTO rules-based system, and their view why China’s non-market subsidies and state-owned enterprises creates issues for dispute settlement.

The conversation examines trade strategy through the lens of real wars — defence, logistics, vulnerabilities, stockpiling — and the attack phase of tariffs and controls. They explore companies as reluctant or obedient “soldiers” in these conflicts, Europe’s simultaneous battles with Chinese EV and solar floods alongside U.S. tariff pressure, and the evidence on whether tariffs actually deliver the terms-of-trade gains economic theory once promised.

Soumaya Keynes — great-great-niece of John Maynard Keynes — reflects on how geopolitics is forcing economics to evolve, citing new research by Christopher Clayton and Jesse Schrager on supply-chain concentration and weaponised dependencies.

Chad Bown draws on White House Situation Room experience to test what a smarter, China-focused strategy might look like.

Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and supply-chain strategists who need to understand the new rules of global trade before the next tariff headline lands.

Published by Simon & Schuster, How to Win a Trade War is out today.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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As of July 1st, the €150 de minimis threshold has been abolished. In this episode, recorded just prior to the changes, I break down exactly what the new rules mean - also laying out what the rules were before the change - and why this is important.

*****

From 1 July 2026 the EU is scrapping its €150 customs de minimis threshold. Cheap parcels just died. Every low-value package from outside Europe now faces a new flat-rate €3 customs duty per product type — plus France’s extra €2 “"taxe sur les petits colis" (TPC) and a potential patchwork of national fees.

In this episode I explain exactly why the EU followed Trump’s lead to abolish De Minimus, how Temu and Shein gamed the old system with 91% of small parcels from China, and why even experts can’t keep up with the constant rule changes.

The Paradox Bomb: Rules designed to make trade fairer and crush e-commerce fraud are actually making everything more complicated, more expensive, and potentially hurting the very businesses and consumers they were meant to protect.

So what for business leaders? Higher friction costs, a massive incentive to shift to EU fulfilment centres instead of direct shipping from the UK, US or Asia. Listen to the podcast for more details.

If you send or receive small packages to Europe — e-commerce, cross-border gifts, online shopping — this is essential listening.

Keywords / Tags: EU de minimis 2026, end of €150 threshold, low value packages customs, low value consignments, small parcels EU, customs duties July 2026, Temu, Shein , EU rules, e-commerce imports Europe, cheap parcels, EU customs changes 2026, global trade podcast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This episode does not constitute advice in any form. Get expert advice from an expert, specific to your circumstances, before relying on any information contained in this episode. Rules, legislation, practice guidance and thresholds can also change.

The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, engage an appropriately qualified person. Views expressed are my own.

Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for unfiltered briefings on the policies, trends and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Share with anyone who’s ever cursed at a parcel notification.

Photo credit: Photo Credit: Breathe Icon Team: Sebastian Porta, Cory Kontros, Andrew Starr-Bochicchio, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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📌 Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat

The 28-year WTO ban on customs duties for electronic transmissions has just lapsed. For the first time since 1998, countries can now tax downloads, streaming (Netflix, Spotify), e-books, SaaS subscriptions, cloud data transfers and every other electronic flow — exactly like physical goods.

In this relaxed Fireside Chat, Justin Hayden Miller breaks down:

• Why this is “MEGA” for businesses and consumers (and why the US and EU fought so hard to keep it)
• The new patchwork of digital border rules that compliance teams will have to track
• Why this changes everything we thought we knew about customs in the 21st century
• Plus: latest Hormuz crisis update, aversion therapy strategy, Suez & Panama chokepoints, UNCTAD trade figures, and what it all means for global supply chains

A genuine “Paradox Bomb” episode: in the age of seamless digital globalisation, the rules designed to keep data borderless have just crumbled.

🎙️ Fireside Chat format — no script, straight talk from the armchair.

Send Justin a voice message or fan mail directly from this episode page (link at the top of the description) — he reads and replies to every one.

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional for your specific situation.

#DigitalTariffs #WTO #EcommerceMoratorium #GlobalTrade2026 #HormuzCrisis #SupplyChainRisk

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Tintin warned us in the 1950s. In 2026 the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz are exploding just like the comic – and $150 oil is no longer science fiction.

In this episode I crack open Hergé’s Tintin: Land of Black Gold and show how its 1950s story of sabotaged tankers, exploding fuel and Middle East intrigue is playing out in real time in the 2026 Red Sea Houthi crisis and Hormuz oil shock.

Here’s what you’ll hear:

• The eerie parallels between the comic’s desert kingdom of Khemed and today’s Red Sea Houthi attacks, Iran tensions, tanker routes and underground facilities
• Why a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or fresh Red Sea shipping disruption isn’t just a shipping headache – it’s a global supply chain shock that could slam trade balances, ignite inflation and hand the next recession its starter’s pistol
• How the 1970s oil crises (the ones that forced Europe to invent summer time) are already repeating in the 2026 Middle East oil crisis
• The demand-side playbook smart governments and businesses can use tomorrow – no lectures, just pick-and-choose moves that actually work while everyone else waits for calm seas

Hergé never wrote a sequel to Land of Black Gold.
But the sequel to today’s Red Sea and Hormuz events is unfolding every morning in the news.

If you’re a business leader, policymaker or anyone tracking energy security, oil prices and global trade disruption in 2026, hit play now.

IEA Press Conference Link: https://www.iea.org/events/video-statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-iea-oil-stock-release

Global Trade Deciphered – decoding what matters before it hits balance sheets.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In this episode we discuss how businesses might handle the compliance chaos of the Strait of Hormuz blockade—ships stalled, oil prices soaring, supply chains crumbling etc.. How are businesses dodging compliance pitfalls amid this geopolitical storm? Maersk's innovation Lead and expert, William Petty, reveals insider strategies.

• Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Seafarers at risk, vessels rerouted—what's the real knock-on for your global trade ops?
• COVID parallels: Bottlenecks, piracy, Suez flashbacks—are we in for another black swan era?
• Compliance wake-up call: Why your supply chain, logistics, and customs teams must sync now to slash delays and costs.
• Non-traditional regs exploding: CBAM carbon taxes, EU deforestation rules, US forced labor bans—ready to track geolocated trees or cotton spinners?
• Tariffs
• Trade fragmentation frenzy: Bilateral deals, sectoral carve-outs—navigating the spider's web of evolving tariffs and borders.
• AI and tech lifelines: Shrinking the haystack with data analytics—spot misclassifications, prioritize 80/20 risks, unlock duty savings.
• Digital product passports revolution: Real-time data sharing for friction-free borders—could this transform your imports forever?
• 2026 trends alert: UK CBAM incoming, forced labor regs spreading—opportunities in digital corridors or more compliance headaches?

William Petty, Maersk's Trade and Customs Consulting innovation Lead with 20+ years from World Economic Forum to global alliances, joins host Justin Hayden Miller to decipher it all.

Global trade pros: Is your business resilient enough? Tune in for actionable hooks on supply chain disruptions, customs compliance strategies, and logistics innovation. #StraitOfHormuzCrisis #CustomsCompliance #SupplyChainDisruptions #MaerskInsights #CBAM #DigitalTrade #GlobalTradePodcast

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts for more on geopolitics reshaping trade. Share if this hits your supply chain nerve!

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Iran Hormuz Crisis escalates and is now closed: US-Israel strikes trigger Iranian retaliation, IRGC warnings halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply at risk). Brent crude prices surging, with analysts warning $100-150+ if disruptions persist. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) suspend transits—shipping chaos compounds delays and fuel costs.

At the same time, Trump's defiant response to February Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs: 10% global import duty under Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 150 days max), with indications to hike to 15%. Shadow trade wars emerge via licensing schemes, potential fees, and workarounds bypassing oversight—adding volatility to already strained supply chains.

Host Justin Hayden Miller (global trade strategist, ex-Big 4/ top law firm) unpacks the paradox: independent crises amplifying each other. Hear his prescient Nov 2025 warning (Episode 15 clip) on fuel spikes + tariffs—now playing out.

Key takeaways & survival guide:

Oil hedging, supply chain delays, tariff inflation, rethink strategy, vertical integration, renewables self-sufficiency, onshoring, hyperlocal model, navigate uncertainty, pre-clearance, licensing shifts, multipolar trade realignment

Essential for business leaders, importers, CFOs facing compounded risks. We're in a gale—prepare for the hurricane.

Disclaimer: Not legal/tax/financial/business advice—consult qualified professionals concerning your specific circumstances.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump's IEEPA Tariffs – Historic 6-3 Ruling Breakdown

February 20, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court rules President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariffs is illegal. No presidential authority for tariffs under IEEPA—Congress holds taxing power. Invalidates 10% baseline global tariffs, higher targeted duties on China, Mexico, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea, and "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs.

International rade lawyer Jeremy Page (Page-Fura PC, Chicago) gives expert analysis: Why the Court rejected IEEPA as a tariff/emergency tool, refund possibilities via Court of International Trade: alternatives (Section 232, 301, etc.).

The episode discusses the consolidated US Supreme Court cases Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc.

• Why this Supreme Court tariff case is historic
• IEEPA basics: No tariffs mentioned, revenue power stays with Congress
• Trump's IEEPA uses: Fentanyl, immigration, deficits, Liberation Day
• Court: IEEPA Tariffs aren't authorized
• Unwinding tariffs & country responses
• Importer refunds? CIT role & injunction questions
• 6-3 vote details (Roberts' leading opinion)
• Plan B: Other tariff statutes explored

Essential for importers, businesses, lawyers tracking U.S. trade policy. Subscribe for more global trade insights!

Thumbnail Photo: Supreme Court. Author: Quercusvirginiana. Photograph made available under the Creative Commons Attribution CC01.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce in 2026, hitting highs above $5,600 in January. What is driving this dramatic rally—and what does it signal for global trade and financial global order?

Justin Hayden Miller breaks down the key forces behind gold's explosive move, including surging safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and growing discussions around de-dollarization. The episode examines renewed calls in Germany, Poland, and Italy to repatriate gold reserves from US vaults—prompted by geopolitical strains in transatlantic relations under the second Trump administration and concerns over asset risks.

Drawing on historical patterns of gold accumulation and movements ahead of major conflicts, the discussion explores whether these developments indicate eroding trust in the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and potential fractures in global alliances.

Key subjects covered:

• Germany's push to bring home gold held in the US
• Broader European repatriation debates and trust issues
• Historical precedents of gold hoarding before military conflicts
• The paradox of gold's heightened role in today's free-floating market versus the classical gold standard era
• BRICS nations' hedging against sanctions/trade pressures
• Implications for dollar dominance, global trade finance, supply chains, and multipolar alliances.

Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers, investors, and analysts monitoring geopolitics, reserve currencies, and international trade dynamics.

Keywords : gold price 2026, $XAUUSD, gold $5000, de-dollarization, gold repatriation Germany, dollar reserve currency, geopolitics gold, central bank gold, US Europe relations Trump, global trade risks, gold surge 2026.

Micro-clip of Marco Rubio leaving for Munich Security Summit: C-Span

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Justin Hayden Miller breaks down Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's explosive Davos speech at the World Economic Forum. From tariffs weaponized as leverage to supply chains exposed as vulnerabilities, explore how great powers are accelerating chaos in international commerce. Is this a rupture or a salvageable transition? Miller unpacks the geopolitics with sharp insights, drawing on analogies from science and history to make sense of the turmoil.

Key Topics Explored:

• The end of the rules-based international order: Carney's blunt take on economic integration turning into coercion.
• Middle powers' survival strategies: Building alliances, strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals.
• Tariffs and trade wars: Reactions from figures like François Hollande on balancing power with the US, plus insights from US trade attorney Peter Quinter on free trade's role in global peace.
• Geopolitical risks: From EU's anti-coercion tools to the prisoner's dilemma in modern trade negotiations.
• Forward-looking trade shifts: Multiplex alliances, resource cartels, and the race for critical materials like copper.

Featuring audio snippets from Carney's iconic address and a voiceover of François Hollande's advice concerning European trade policy regarding the US.

Link to Mark Carney’s speech on the excellent WEF World Economic Forum website: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/

See also: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-how-middle-powers-are-reading-the-global-moment/

Global Trade Deciphered is essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and anyone tracking global economy trends.

Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts for more unfiltered analysis on global trade, geopolitics, tariffs, Davos insights, Mark Carney, World Economic Forum, trade policy, critical minerals, supply chain vulnerabilities, and international relations. Share with your network and join the conversation!

Thumbnail image of Mark Carney, © Lëa-Kim Châteauneuf, reproduced by kind permission: licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license, c.c. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2025-11-14_InaugurationREM_Deux-Montagnes_Mark_Carney.jpg ; photo cropped and lightly modified by Global Trade Deciphered.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In this episode of Global Trade Deciphered, host Justin Hayden Miller discusses and analyses the newly signed EU-Mercosur trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay).

Signed on January 17, 2026, after 26 years of negotiations, this landmark deal eliminates tariffs on over 90% of goods, boosts access to critical minerals like lithium, and covers investment, intellectual property, and sustainable development. But is it Europe's strategic move to counter U.S. trade policies under Trump?

Justin analyzes the geopolitical implications, including how U.S. foreign policy is pushing nations toward closer ties with China, as seen in Paraguay's president's remarks on strategic partnerships. He explores farmer protests in France and Europe, opposition from countries like France, Poland, and Hungary, and the challenges of ratification—including potential vetoes, European Parliament approval, and even a possible European Court of Justice review.

Key discussions include:

• Tariff reductions on industrial products, cars, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wine, and agriculture (with quotas for sensitive items like beef).
• Safeguards for EU standards on labor, environment, and deforestation.
• Broader trends: Deglobalization, anti-globalization protests echoing 1999, and predictions for 2026 global trade shifts.
• Audio clips from Paraguay's President Santiago Peña, U.S. President Donald Trump, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen.

This episode is essential for understanding 2026 trade policies, EU-Mercosur impacts on global supply chains, Trump tariffs' ripple effects, and the future of international business amid farmer revolts and geopolitical pivots.

Timestamps:
00:02 – Intro: Arctic Tensions & Episode Overview
03:11 – Paraguay President Peña on China Partnerships
03:38 – Trump's Policies Pushing Allies Toward China
12:15 – Trump on EU Challenges
12:26 – EU Decision-Making Complexities
14:33 – Von der Leyen on Trade Growth Estimates
14:51 – Analyzing the "Substantial" 9 Billion Euro Projection
15:10 – Von der Leyen on Investments in Cars & Chemicals
15:38 – Putting Trade Figures in Perspective
End – Predictions: Ratification Rollercoaster & Anti-Trump Deals

Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a Paris-based global trade advisor and strategist with 25+ years of experience, former partner at a top-tier European law firm, and senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices. Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade, geopolitics, and the economy with expert insights for business leaders, policymakers, and trade enthusiasts.

Reference press articles mentioned during the episode:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/greenland-new-shipping-routes-hidden-minerals-and-a-frontline-between-the-us-and-russia

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/greenland-national-defense-maps-6f53c339

Subscribe for more on EU trade deals, Trump policies, global supply chains, and 2026 predictions.

Follow on X: @JustinHaydenM. Send questions or guest ideas!

#EUMercosur #MercosurAgreement #TrumpTradePolicies #GlobalTrade2026 #FarmerProtests #Geopolitics #InternationalTrade #SupplyChain #TradePolicy #ChinaPartnerships #Deglobalization

About the Host
Justin Hayden Miller advises multinational corporations on customs, tariffs, and trade strategy. With deep expertise in international business, he deciphers complex global trends for leaders worldwide.

Thanks for listening—rate, review, and share to support the show!

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Maduro in U.S. custody. Venezuela's oil under American influence. A pending Supreme Court decision that could ignite a new trade war. Welcome to 2026—it's already explosive.

Just days into the new year, host Justin Hayden Miller unpacks the geopolitical shockwaves ripping through global trade. From U.S. control of Venezuelan energy to the tariffs showdown at the Supreme Court, this episode delivers razor-sharp analysis on the forces reshaping supply chains, alliances, and power balances in 2026.

Why this episode demands your attention right now:

• How Maduro's capture could hand the U.S. unprecedented leverage over Latin American trade—and why China won't stay silent
• The Supreme Court tariff ruling hanging over Trump’s agenda: massive importer refunds or escalating trade war?
• Why oil is suddenly more critical than ever—and what AI's insatiable energy hunger has to do with it
• Could the U.S. turn Venezuela into an economic proxy inside Mercosur, upending EU negotiations?
• Expert takes: Will China absorb Taiwan with barely a ripple? Is globalization crumbling under AI and robotics?
• 2025 predictions that hit the bullseye—and the bold calls for what's next

Highlights include:

• US International Trade attorney Peter Quinter on why the Supreme Court might force congressional approval on future tariffs
• Shipping expert Simon Ward's provocative outlook on China's growth and Taiwan
• Insights from former EU Labour leader Richard Corbett and senior BMW executive Dr. Jürgen Guldner

Perfect for executives, investors, and policymakers tracking:
#MaduroCapture #VenezuelaOil #TrumpTariffs #SupremeCourtRuling #GlobalTrade2026 #Geopolitics #AIEnergy #TradeWar #ChinaTaiwan #Mercosur

Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Drop a 5-star review if you're ready for unfiltered insights on the trade battles defining 2026.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In this special Christmas episode, host Justin Hayden Miller examines 2025's record-breaking global trade—surpassing $35 trillion—through the lens of Father Christmas and the challenges posed by Trump's tariffs, Arctic geopolitics, and climate change.

Key Topics

• Trump's tariffs and their impact on holiday imports, toys, and global supply chains
• Melting Arctic ice opening new shipping routes (Northern Sea Route, Northwest Passage) amid rising US-Russia-China tensions and Trump's Greenland discussions
• Geopolitical volatility from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting energy and grain markets
• Resilience in global trade despite barriers, with insights on Brexit customs rules and air cargo logistics

Outlook

A reflective year-end analysis on trade resilience, potential 2026 risks, and the evolving energy revolution.

Track Santa's journey: NORADSanta.org

Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for expert insights on international trade policy, geopolitics, and economic trends. Happy holidays!

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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How could the EU CBAM Carbon Border Tax 2026 reshape global trade, sparking US trade war risks and highlighting EU over-regulation? Essential listening for importers, exporters, and supply chain pros navigating emerging trends in green policy and international relations.

• Why CBAM Matters Now: Two major events this December 2025 could change how you import goods into Europe—discover the hidden bureaucracy behind "green" taxes.
• US NSS Critique: The 2025 US National Security Strategy slams EU regulatory suffocation—could it signal retaliatory tariffs and fractured alliances?
• CBAM Breakdown: From cement to hydrogen, learn how the world's first carbon border tax hits high-carbon imports starting January 1, 2026—what's the real cost?
• Carbon Leakage Trap: EU claims CBAM prevents offshoring emissions, but is it protectionism in disguise that disadvantages non-EU producers?
• Administrative Nightmare: Importers must declare embedded emissions or face sky-high defaults—could this expand to everyday items like washing machines?
• Trade War Sparks: Echoes of Canada's failed attempt—how might US criticisms of WTO violations lead to reciprocal actions and global supply chain chaos?
• Broader Impacts: Unpack how EU over-regulation stifles innovation and fuels tensions with China, India, and the US—your business at risk?
• Related Regulations: Ties to EU Batteries Regulation and more red tape—why this isn't just about carbon, but the future of free trade.

Including:

• Game-changing events for EU imports
• US NSS roasts EU bureaucracy
• What is CBAM really?
• Products hit hardest
• End of just declarations, start of taxes
• Emissions math decoded
• Green policy or trade war trigger?
• Bureaucracy's hidden costs
• EU red tape expands
• Outlook for global trade

and:

• Could CBAM ignite a US-EU trade clash?
• Why importers can't ignore emissions defaults
• CBAM's potential to upend your supply chain

Call to Action:

• Please share if CBAM affects your trade—rate/review on Apple Podcasts to boost visibility for global trade insights.

#EUCbam #CarbonBorderTax2026 #USTradeWar #EUOverRegulation #GlobalTrade #ImportingToEurope #WTO

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Episode Description

The UK just delivered its Autumn Budget 2025 – and it’s sending louder signals to global trade and geopolitics than most people realise.

In this unscripted, coffee-accompanied episode, Justin Hayden Miller zooms out to explore the global trade and strategic implications of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ announcements – why the UK is rapidly becoming the world’s real-time economic laboratory, and what the rest of us should be watching for.

Key global trade and policy signals discussed:

• “If you build here, Britain will back you” – the UK’s carrot version of Trump’s industrial-policy stick
• The end of the £135 de minimis threshold: full customs duties and VAT on every imported parcel from March 2029 (yes, the same policy Trump is pushing in the US)
• Pay-per-mile road pricing for EVs from 2028 – and why it risks sending exactly the wrong green signal
• Defence spending heading to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 and Europe’s quiet pivot to a war economy
• Phasing out hotels for asylum seekers + the surprising question: will humanoid robots soon face immigration quotas?
• Why simultaneous reindustrialisation + export-led growth for every major economy is mathematically impossible

This is not a budget line-item recap. It’s a strategic conversation about protectionism dressed in new clothes, the return of industrial policy, and the fast-changing intersection of trade, technology, and geopolitics.

Essential listening for anyone involved in international supply chains, customs planning, EV strategy, geopolitical risk, or industrial policy – in any country.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Can Elon Musk be right about both of these at the same time?

• Collapsing birth rates are the biggest threat to civilisation
• AI + humanoid robots will make almost all human jobs obsolete in the next 10–20 years

If robots do all the work… why is he Elon Musk asking the world to have more babies? And what does this paradox mean for the future of corporations and global trade?

- Elon Musk’s births and robot paradox

- Global fertility collapse – the shocking numbers

- Musk’s comments at the 2025 Saudi Investment Forum: “Work will be optional… money may become irrelevant”

- Universal High Income and the real future problem

- Mr Nelson’s 1980s prediction vs today’s self-checkout hell

- Ronald Coase, zero transaction costs, and the coming death of the corporation

- Electronic personhood for robots – the 2017 EU Parliament resolution

- R2-D2

- Could droids get bank accounts and become consumers?

- Intra-firm trade and the blockchain future

- The Tesla that does 0-100 mph in 2 seconds when the speed limit is 55

- What every company must do before the AI asteroid hits (McKinsey 2025)

- Kodak, the East India Company… and the morning the multinational dies

Elon Musk | AI | Robotics | Optimus | Birth Rate Crisis | Fertility Collapse | Future of Work | Global Trade | Universal Basic Income | Transaction Costs | Corporate Death | Demographics | Automation | Tesla | Trade Policy | Geopolitics

Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller – global trade advisor & strategist, former partner at a top-tier European law firm and former senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices.

If this episode made you think differently, please leave a quick 5-star rating — it’s the #1 way new listeners discover the show.

Subscribe and stay ahead.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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In October 2025, the International Maritime Organization's (IMO’s) Net-Zero Framework—designed to introduce carbon levies on high-emission fuels and raise up to $10 billion annually for developing nations—was delayed by a 57-49 vote until October 2026.

This episode examines:

• The U.S. role in blocking the measures and reported use of diplomatic leverage

• Saudi Arabia’s contrasting approach with economic incentives

• China’s $18 billion investment in alternative-fuel shipyards and its vote alongside the U.S.

• The current state of green-fuel technologies: LNG leakage risks, hydrogen supply challenges, ammonia toxicity, and early-stage nuclear options

• Indirect military dimensions: low-emission propulsion for naval stealth and endurance, e.g. the US Virginia class (SSN-774 class) nuclear submarine

• The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its potential ripple effects on high-carbon supply chains

• A parallel from France’s delayed Crit’Air vehicle-emission scheme

The episode also includes clips of an an interview discussion between me and shipping expert Simon Ward, in May 2025, which somewhat predicted US IMO involvement and the result, some 6 months before it happened!

Keywords: US China trade, shipping standoff, IMO blocked, levy blocked 2025, US China shipping, IMO $10B, green levy blocked, carbon tax shipping

I’ll deliver the closing address at ENSM’s conference “When Geopolitics Intrudes on Global Maritime Trade” on 20 November in Le Havre. Join in person or online—details below.

ENSM Conference – 20 November, Le Havre

Register: https://lnkd.in/e8tueJZX

Contact: [email protected]

Sources:

• UNCTAD – 80% of trade by sea

• IMO MEPC 82 – vote details

• Reuters – U.S. diplomatic tactics

• The New York Times – strong-arm reports

• Climate Change News – Saudi incentives

• Yale Climate Connections – cost projections

• U.S. Navy – Virginia-class

• BBC – AUKUS deal

• Global Times (20 Oct 2025) – CSSC statement

• China Briefing – retrofit investments

• Truth Social – Trump quote

• Connexion France – Crit’Air

• European Commission – CBAM

Email: [email protected]

X: @justinhaydenm

#GlobalTrade #Maritime #Geopolitics #GreenShipping #ENSM

A Privileged Discussions Production

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Episode 14: AI Tsunami - Global Trade Boom or Bust?

AI's Impact on International Trade: Boom or Deglobalization?

Host Justin Hayden Miller, global trade lawyer at a top European law firm, analyzes AI's dual impact on global trade. Will it boost efficiency and growth, or drive localization and self-sufficiency? Insights from historical AI milestones, 2025 trade forecasts, and quantum computing trends for European policymakers.

Tailored for senior executives, policymakers, trade professionals and those interested in geopolitics.

Keywords: AI impact, international trade 2025, globalization deglobalization, AI supply chain optimization, 3D printing robotics, onshoring reshoring, WTO AI projections, Deloitte Tech Trends 2025, UNCTAD trade uncertainties, how AI affects global supply chains, quantum computing trade.

Meta Description: Explore AI's impact on global trade in 2025. Boom or bust? Insights for executives on globalization, 3D printing & more.

Episode Highlights:

• AI Boosting Trade: Optimizes logistics, predictive chains, tokenized docs, and customs. UNCTAD: Trade uncertainties cost developing countries billions—AI mitigates risks.
• AI Driving Localization: Accelerates robotics and 3D printing, eroding offshoring. Bamboo Lab's PrintMon Maker enables text-to-3D; market to hit $88B by 2030.
• Adoption Speed: Deep Blue (1997) vs. ChatGPT (100M users in months); beats 50-year video tech lag.
• Key Projections: WTO: 34-37% trade rise by 2040 with AI. Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI fuels efficiency.
• Risks & Outlook: Data wars, regulatory Luddism, quantum computing acceleration.

Timestamps:

• Intro: AI's Trade Tsunami
• History: Kasparov vs. Deep Blue
• AI Trade Enhancements: Logistics & UNCTAD
• Tech Adoption: Video Calls to AI
• WTO/Deloitte Projections
• Localization: Robotics & 3D Printing
• Policies: Tariffs & Onshoring
• Risks: Data, Regulations, Parallels
• Conclusions

Resources:

• WTO World Trade Report 2025: AI to boost trade 34-37% by 2040. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/wtr_15sep25_e.htm
• Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI in business transformation. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends.html
• UNCTAD: Uncertainty as the new tariff, costing developing economies. https://unctad.org/news/uncertainty-new-tariff-costing-global-trade-and-hurting-developing-economies
• 3D Printing Market: $88.2B by 2030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/3d-printing-industry-analysis
• Bamboo Lab PrintMon Maker: AI 3D model generator, Oct 2024. https://www.allaboutbambu.com/2024/10/18/printmon-maker-is-now-globally-available/

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Strap in for an exclusive test drive of BMW's game-changing iX5 Hydrogen prototype—hitting roads in 2028! Join host and test driver Justin Hayden Miller at BMW's iconic Munich FIZ Center - with BMW hydrogen Lead and Hydrogen Council founder, Dr. Jürgen Guldner, riding in the passenger seat.

Feel the instant torque, whisper-quiet EV ride, and zero-emission fuel cell speed: with sub-6-sec acceleration. Blending battery perks with gas-station ease, it's the future of sustainable mobility. Must-hear sequel to our previous hydrogen trade episode!

Key Highlights:

• Thrilling Test Drive: Feel the raw power—125kW fuel cell + 170kW battery boost for highway dominance and sports-mode adrenaline. Justin calls it "driving in the future"!
• Behind-the-Scenes: Live from Munich's innovation hub with 20,000+ experts, plus a nod to the BMW i3's EV legacy.
• Tech Deep Dive: Dr. Guldner explains fuel cell magic: Hydrogen + oxygen = electricity + pure water exhaust. Learn about regenerative braking, 6kg hydrogen tanks, and 3-4 minute refuels.
• BMW-Toyota Partnership: Over 10 years of collaboration culminates in this prototype, with series production hitting roads in 2028 as a complement to battery EVs.
• Sustainability Edge: Why hydrogen beats batteries for long-haul drivers—no home charging needed, just gas-station convenience with zero emissions.

Guest: Dr. Jürgen Guldner, Head of BMW Hydrogen Projects, Vehicle Dynamics Pioneer, founding member of the Hydrogen Council and Global Hydrogen Advocate.

Why Listen? Echoing Top Gear's iconic test drives, discover how hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are revolutionizing mobility, decarbonizing transport, and challenging Tesla-style EVs. Ideal for auto enthusiasts, green tech fans, and global trade pros eyeing Europe's energy transition.

Call to Action: Subscribe now for more episodes decoding global trade trends! Rate and review on Buzzsprout, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Follow @JustinHaydenM on X for updates. Missed the main episode? Check "Driving the Future: Europe's Hydrogen Mobility Revolution" first!

#HydrogenCars #BMWHydrogen #FuelCellTech #ElectricVehicles @BMW #SustainableTransport #AutoInnovation #TopGear

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Recorded live at BMW’s Cutting-Edge Innovation FIZ Center in Munich. Join global trade lawyer Justin Hayden Miller in conversation with Dr. Jürgen Guldner, having headed BMW's Dynamic Development he is Head of Hydrogen Projects at BMW Group, being a founding member of the Hydrogen Council. Elon Musk’s call for automotive disruption sparks debate as Europe navigates energy transition and global trade shifts. Could hydrogen technology be a game-changer?

• Elon Musk’s views on automotive disruption
• H2-ICE vs. fuel cell vehicles: Hydrogen powertrain options
• BMW-Toyota collaboration: Decade-long partnership
• Hydrogen as an energy carrier: Imports, storage, grid support
• Battery electric vehicles vs. hydrogen: User needs and applications
• Hydrogen infrastructure in Europe: Current state and future networks
• Supply chain for hydrogen technology: Europe’s capabilities
• Trade policy and hydrogen: Regulatory frameworks
• Global hydrogen race: China, Japan, Korea developments
• BMW hydrogen 2028: Pilot fleet and production plans

The episode includes key topics for trade professionals, policymakers, and industry leaders concerning hydrogen’s potential in Europe’s energy and trade landscape. Essential for shaping hydrogen energy policy, trade strategy, or corporate sustainability.

Share with your network to ignite discussions on Europe’s green trade future.

Don’t miss the next bonus episode: Justin test-drives BMW’s hydrogen prototype, launching in 2028. Subscribe to the podcast for more global trade trends and analysis, and connect via X @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email on [email protected].

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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We've rebranded to "Global Trade Deciphered" to better reflect our sharper focus on global trade and business and to make the podcast more accessible and discoverable online.

While the name has changed, our commitment to bringing you insightful analysis and expert perspectives on global trade remains the same.

For full details, and more, listen to the episode.

Trade Policy 2025

Please share the podcast with friends and colleagues who might find it valuable. Contact me with episode ideas or feedback at [email protected] or follow me on X @justinhaydenm.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at [email protected]

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for listening!

Episode Description

Is the new US-EU trade deal an historic win or a dangerous pitfall? Join host Justin Hayden Miller, global trade and international lawyer with 30 years' experience, as he dissects the high-stakes agreement unveiled by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen.

From tariffs to massive energy and military deals, this episode uncovers the details and hidden risks. Listen now.

Key Topics Covered

• Differing interpretations of the Trade Deal
• Geopolitical Secrets: What’s behind EU Trade Commissioner Shekvovich’s cryptic hints about security and Ukraine?
• Criticisms of the deal by senior political figures
• How Europe can optimise and take advantage of the situation
• Global Ripple Effects: and could Ireland face trade and political complications because the deal?
• Justin Hayden Miller’s take on what European governments and companies might do.

#TrumpTradeDeal #USTariffs #EUEconomy, Trade Policy 2025

Audio of the US / EU Press Conferences used for non monetised purposes, courtesy of:

© C-SPAN, 2025

© European Union, European Commission’s Audiovisual Service, 2025

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Renowned U.S. international trade attorney Peter Quinter speaks on how likely it is that the US Supreme Court will overturn President Trump's tariffs.

Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade lawyer, sits down with Peter to unpack the legal battles surrounding Trump’s controversial trade policies. From whether they are constitutional to Trump's unprecedented use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, we dive into whether his tariffs will ultimately stand up in U.S. courts, or whether the US State will have to reimburse importers the tariffs already paid.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Trump’s Tariff Strategy: How President Trump’s executive orders since January 20, 2025, have reshaped U.S. trade policy.
• Legal Challenges: Two landmark cases (VOS Selections Inc. vs. United States and Learning Resources Inc. vs. Trump) headed to the U.S. Supreme Court, questioning the president’s authority under IEPA.
• U.S. Constitution and Tariffs: The role of Congress vs. the President in imposing tariffs, and the non-delegation doctrine’s impact on these cases.

Guest Spotlight: Peter Quinter

Peter Quinter, an equity partner at Gunster and chair of its U.S. Customs and International Trade Law Group, brings 35 years of expertise to the conversation. A globally recognized international trade attorney ranked in Chambers USA, offers unparalleled insights into their legal and economic ramifications.

Notable Quotes

• Peter Quinter: “These are the two most extraordinary cases that I’ve ever seen in my 35 years as a U.S. customs and international trade lawyer.” (On the Supreme Court-bound cases)
• Justin Hayden Miller: “Tariffs are somewhat on trial before the American people as well”

Trade Policy 2025

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Join host Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade lawyer, as he interviews Richard Corbett, former Leader of the European Parliamentary Labour Party and CBE recipient, on Brexit and the recent UK-EU Reset Summit. Recorded the morning after the summit on 21 May 2025, Corbett shares his insights on Brexit, its economic consequences, its trade and business impacts as well as the summit's outcomes. Key discussions include:

- Brexit’s Economic & Trade Impacts: Corbett reflects on the 2016 referendum, the flawed Remain campaign, and Brexit’s economic toll, with a 4-5% GDP loss and £40 billion in annual lost tax revenue, as per the OBR.

- UK-EU Reset Summit: The summit addressed trade barriers, security cooperation, and agriculture, but Corbett notes it’s a modest step, not fully resolving customs union and single market challenges.

- Trade Challenges: From red tape to rules of origin, businesses face ongoing hurdles, with limited summit relief for most sectors.

- Security & Geopolitics: Post-Brexit, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and US policy shifts under Trump highlight the need for UK-EU collaboration.

- Future Relations: Corbett sees the summit as a mindset shift, paving the way for deeper UK-EU ties, potentially rejoining the EU by 2033.

Corbett also discusses Margaret Thatcher’s European stance, the summit’s “reset” terminology, and possible future Labour representation in the European Parliament. A must-listen for insights into UK-EU relations and global trade dynamics.

Trade Policy 2025

Margaret Thatcher clips: © UK Parliamentary Recording Unit, All rights reserved

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller is a Global Trade lawyer (with 25 years' experience) formerly at the Big 4 and now partner in one of Europe's largest commercial law firms.

In this episode, we dive into President Trump’s ambitious “Made in America” policy, exploring whether his push to bring manufacturing back to American soil will succeed—or falter.

Trade Policy 2025

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- Subscribe: Don’t miss an episode—subscribe on Buzzsprout, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform!

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Don’t forget to rate and review to help us grow!

**Resources & References**

- IBISWorld Report: [Canada’s Shrinking Auto Industry](https://www.ibisworld.com/canada/industry-trends/biggest-exporting-industries/)

- BBC Article: [Challenges of Relocating North American Auto Industry](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn7vjlv7pzdo)

- David Ricardo’s *Comparative Advantage* (1817): Learn more about this foundational economic theory.

- Adam Smith’s *The Wealth of Nations* (1776): The roots of *Absolute Advantage*.

Tags: #TrumpPolicies #MadeInUSA #ComparativeAdvantage #EconomicsPodcast #Tariffs #GlobalTrade #PersonalProductivity

**Next Episode Teaser**

Brexit!

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller (Global Trade lawyer) discusses steel - its history, its place in the 1929 Wall Street Crash, through to its future.

The episode is published to coincide with the NASCC: The Steel Conference event in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 2, 2025,

In particular, the episode addresses:

- Comparisons between today’s economic events and those of the 1920s and 1930s

- The importance of steel as a commodity. Steel commodity prices per ton and steel production in the1920s

- Reasons for the drop and crash in steel prices in 1929

- Steel as architectural frames: the art deco New York Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building

- Properties of steel

- Steel used for spaceship components; Space X and Elon Musk’s Starship; The role of steel for any manned mission to Mars

- Stainless steel’s invention by Harry Brearley, and the story of stainless steel in Sheffield ("rustless steel”)

- Steel as a barometer of the world economy

- the current price of steel and oversupply

- US steel demand and tariffs

- European Union Steel Safeguard Measures: the EU Tariff Rate Quotes (TRQ) and Anti-Dumping tariffs

- An explanation of Absolute Quota Systems and Tariff Rate Quotes (TRQ), using analogies

- Trade Diversion and protective measures

- A comparison between the properties of steel and those of world and economic leaders

ARTISTIC REFERENCES:

$100 Bill (Song) Rap, Hip-Hop

Written by Jay-Z and Producer, Evan Mast.

Written for the 2013 film adaptation The Great Gatsby.

Recorded May 6, 2013.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/4XP935ZDMy36SyYGB8wadP?si=924c9d14548f4875

The Great Gasby (movie) 2013

Directed by Baz Luhrmann; Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire and Carey Mulligan.

Release Date: May 1, 2013 (New York City)

Star Wars (Movie) 1977

Written and Directed by George Lucas.

Release Date: May 1977

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller (Global Trade & Customs lawyer) invites Simon Ward (shipping expert, broker and Professor of Shipping). They discuss global shipping and whether Chinese shipping represents a risk to the United States and world trade, as well as issues such as the Panama Canal.

In particular, the episode addresses:

- Why shipping is important.

- How the shipping industry operates.

- The decline of British and US shipbuilding. Port of Liverpool, LFC, The Titanic, White Star Line; liner trades

- Present shipbuilding. China, South Korea and Japan

- Whether the Chinese practice unfair competition in shipbuilding against the United States

- The US' potential to industrialize using shipbuilding; Japanese shipbuilding, demographic pressures

- Global Shipping Disruptions. Disruption created by Covid; Putin; Ukraine; Suez Canal closure because of Houthi rebels and the Panama Canal: the effects

- Chinese shipping dominance and influence

- The Panama Canal Its significance; global shipping routes

- TBaltimore and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse; US infrastructure concerns, and re the Panama Canal

- Globalisation and protectionism

- Suez Crisis 1956

- Shipping and inflation, container pricing

- Tariffs and the consequences for the shipping industry

- Predictions concerning China; Taiwan; demographic considerations

Artistic references: Titanic (1997 film) Directed by James Cameron and starring Leonardo DiCaprio & Kate Winslet. Paramount Pictures, 20th Century Fox

CONTACT DETAILS:

Justin Hayden Miller’s contact details:

Twitter: @JustinHaydenM

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-hayden-miller-7b2a695/

Email: [email protected]

Simon Ward’s contact information:

- Blog : https://ursashipbrokers.gr/

- LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-ward-ursa/

- email: [email protected]

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at [email protected]

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name.

Episode Description

In this episode, Justin Hayden Miller, a Global Trade & Customs lawyer and consultant, using clips of Margaret Thatcher, analyses latest developments of President Trump’s trade and tariff policies.

The episode concludes considering:

• Risks of Rule-Changing: Analyzing the potential consequences of the U.S. reshaping global trade rules, which could inadvertently advantage competitors like China.
• Comparisons with Darwinism: The theory of Survival of the Fittest, with modern day approaches to trade, drawing parallels with current events.

It considers:

• U.S. Tariff Policies: 2025 U.S. Trade Policy. Exploring President Trump's perspective on tariffs as a tool for economic dominance, with references to a pre-World War II "golden age" of U.S. trade funded by tariffs rather than income tax.
• Margaret Thatcher’s Legacy: Featuring archival clips of Thatcher defending her economic policies, Justin draws connections between her views on wealth creation and modern trade strategies.
• Soft Power vs. Hard Power: A discussion on the shift from diplomatic influence to economic coercion, with references to Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power and its relevance to U.S. global positioning.
• Economic Ideology: Debating the merits of free trade versus protectionism, with references to Adam Smith and the ideological underpinnings of current U.S. trade strategies.

Thatcher clips © : By permission: UK Parliamentary Recording Unit, All rights reserved

Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for listening!

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Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade lawyer, explores Donald Trump’s tariff policies from their historical roots in mercantilism and protectionism, their modern implications, and how these relate to Trump’s trade agenda.

Key Topics Discussed

• Tariffs Explained and Trump’s Tariff Plans: Taxes on imported goods that affect prices and economies. Trump's intended tariff policy.
• Mercantilism History:
  • Spain: Bullionism
  • France: The Great Colbert. Tariff protections for industries and boosted manufacturing.
  • England: Splendid Isolation and trade independence.
  • Germany: Friedrich List’s tariff approach for emerging industries.
• Mercantilism vs. Protectionism:
  • The differences between the two.
• Trump’s Strategy: Mercantilism (trade surpluses), Protectionism (US industry support) and Colbert-like industrialization efforts.
• Historical Impact: British mercantilism, the Boston Tea Party and American independence.

Call to Action

• Subscribe: Listen to Episode 4 on Free Trade and Trump’s tariffs.
• Rate: Help others find the podcast with a quick rating.

Legal Disclaimer

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Views are those of Justin Hayden Miller and not that of any law firm or third party.

About the Host

Justin Hayden Miller, a French advocate and partner at a top European law firm, specializes in global trade, customs, and VAT with over 25 years of experience.

Tune in for Episode 4 to explore the free trade angle.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at [email protected]

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Privileged Discussions is now Global Trade Deciphered, a sharper reflection of our focus on global trade and business. Same expert insights, new name. Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

Episode Description

In this episode, I interview CHRIS TAILBY CBE, former Head of Tax Policy at UK Customs and Head of Anti Tax Avoidance at the UK Tax Authorities (HMRC).

Tax which is due is a cost for any business and Tax Avoidance is an area of the law that we should all be aware and wary of.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Chris Tailby’s Career Journey: From barrister to tax partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, to Director of Tax Practice and head of the UK Anti-Avoidance Group.
• Tax Avoidance vs. Evasion: Exploring the legal and ethical boundaries, with insights into landmark cases.
• Duke of Westminster Case: How this precedent shaped tax planning by prioritizing the letter of the law.
• Halifax Case: A pivotal European Court decision that redefined VAT planning and tackled abusive tax practices.
• The IRS & JITSIC & Gordon Brown: Chris’s role in signing the treaty establishing the Joint International Tax Shelter Information Centre.
• Jaffa Cake Case: The quirky legal battle over whether Jaffa Cakes are cakes or biscuits, impacting VAT liability.
• Management Style: Chris’s hands-off approach and emphasis on empowering teams.
• What is required to fight tax avoidance : Analytical skills, attention to detail, and cross-sector expertise as key to a successful legal career.

Do subscribe to the podcast so that you don’t miss future episodes.

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at [email protected]

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

Send us Fan Mail

Episode Description

This episode introduces the concept of the series.

Do subscribe to the podcast so that you don’t miss future episodes.

Global Trade Deciphered is a Privileged Discussions Productions podcast. Thanks for joining us!

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at [email protected]

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.