In Moscow’s Shadows
- Épisodes
- 292
- Parution
- hebdomadaire
- Dernier épisode
- 8 Nov 2026
À propos du podcast
Russia, behind the headlines as well as in the shadows. This podcast is the audio counterpart to Mark Galeotti's blog of the same name, a place where "one of the most informed and provocative voices on modern Russia", can talk about Russia historical and (more often) contemporary, discuss new books and research, and sometimes talk to other Russia-watchers.
If you'd like to keep the podcast coming and generally support my work, or want to ask questions or suggest topics for me to cover, do please contribute to my Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/InMoscowsShadows
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
Épisodes 292
In Moscow's Shadows 270: Hoax Bombs and Difficult Language
Russia's 'hybrid war' on Europe seems to be hotting up - but can one confidently blame Moscow for the recent spate of hoax bomb threats? The first instinct is to say “it must be Russia” and it …
Notes de l’épisode
Russia's 'hybrid war' on Europe seems to be hotting up - but can one confidently blame Moscow for the recent spate of hoax bomb threats? The first instinct is to say “it must be Russia” and it very probably is, but we need to understand what we can honestly claim, what we merely suspect, and we can respond when proof is partial by design.
This is about the language we use to assess the threat, but encoded within that is also a guide to European policy options. Likewise, Putin’s recurring use of the term “strategic defeat” also offers a guide both to his own fears and also his strategic communications -- and thus how the West can respond to that, too.On the two assets I discuss:
RUMINATOR is at https://ruminator.xyz and up to 50 listeners can get 25% off the subscription by using the code SAVE25-2QFSPA. Just request access at ruminator.xyz with a mention that you come from In Moscow’s Shadows, and when approved, you can use the code on the payment page.
SCARS OF DONBAS can be entered through the dedicated page at https://scarsofdonbas.org/in-moscows-shadows and the peace survey I mentioned is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 269: White Flags and Red Banners
This week's conversation between Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre and Vladimir Putin certainly ruffled some feathers. Setting aside the did-he-didn't-he fluff about whether Putin …
Notes de l’épisode
This week's conversation between Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre and Vladimir Putin certainly ruffled some feathers. Setting aside the did-he-didn't-he fluff about whether Putin delivered another of his historical lectures (anonymous sources say so, but I'm willing to believe the on-the-record denials from Stubb and Støre), it's a useful start (and no more than that) to European diplomacy with agency. Europe cannot outsource dialogue with Moscow to to the White House and then act surprised when it lacks leverage.
Meanwhile, it's looking at a rare piece of good news from a ghastly conflict: the temporary Oleshki ceasefire and humanitarian mission. Even a small ceasefire, properly observed by both Russia and Ukraine, matters. It shows what can be achieved through unexpected intermediaries and professional coordination, and why dismissing every contact as “just propaganda” risks missing the building blocks that any future settlement will require.
(PS: originally, I managed to get Kharkiv and Kherson mixed up! Has been edited to correct)
After the break, I shift to Russian domestic politics and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation: election setbacks, protest voting, budget posturing, and the widening gap between a pro-Kremlin leadership and a more restless grassroots. I look at inequality arguments, the convenient “bad boyars” alibi, and the growing pressure on regional activists who take opposition too seriously.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 268: Peace and (Info) War
A peace deal is easy to sketch and brutally hard to land. The latest reported shape of US-led talks offers some promise, especially with the talk of genuinely solid security guarantees for Ukraine and European …
Notes de l’épisode
A peace deal is easy to sketch and brutally hard to land. The latest reported shape of US-led talks offers some promise, especially with the talk of genuinely solid security guarantees for Ukraine and European involvement, although the last portion of the Donbas remains a seemingly-insuperable roadblock. Nonetheless, at least the announced ceasefire around Oleshky sounds like a little good news amidst the misery.
From there, I turn to the part of modern conflict that gets blamed for almost everything: information operations. Yes, Moscow runs disinformation and political influence campaigns, but should we respond in kind? Striking back sounds satisfying, but it comes with legal, moral, and practical costs and the biggest danger is the feedback loop: bluster creates bluster, trust at home erodes, and miscalculation becomes more likely even when nobody is looking for a shooting war.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 267: Once Upon A Time In... Chelyabinsk?
A mid-sized gang in Chelyabinsk should not be front page news, and that is exactly why it is so useful. When the Artakovsky criminal group is rolled up, the details point to bigger trends in the Russian …
Notes de l’épisode
A mid-sized gang in Chelyabinsk should not be front page news, and that is exactly why it is so useful. When the Artakovsky criminal group is rolled up, the details point to bigger trends in the Russian underworld: how gangs recruit, Chechen criminal 'franchising,' the AUE threat, how they govern themselves, and how the state is learning to prosecute them with sharper tools.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 266: Diesel and Delusion
Donald Trump's diesel deal is, of course, in effect a birthday present for Putin, explained by The Donald’s transactional self-interest and hunger for a headline before the midterms, not baroque theories …
Notes de l’épisode
Donald Trump's diesel deal is, of course, in effect a birthday present for Putin, explained by The Donald’s transactional self-interest and hunger for a headline before the midterms, not baroque theories about hidden loyalties. Even if not a single barrel of diesel ever ships, though, this is undoubtedly good for Moscow. Maybe some revenue (if need be, Putin can starve domestic markets to export), but above all a political gain. Washington is again at odds with an angry Kyiv, while Europe is again left looking clueless and weak.
In part, Europe may have been wrong-footed by its failure to consider brutal questions of national interest. Why does it depend so much on comfort-blanket mantras about the Russia-Ukraine war? To a degree, it is the power of groupthink, and this brings me to the Leonid Ragozin case in Latvia and my wider worry about democracies sliding towards silencing dissent instead of winning arguments.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 265: Valdai and Putin on Peace
The annual shindig of the Valdai Discussion Club is one of those Kremlin set pieces that invites two equally lazy reactions: treat it as sacred insight into Vladimir Putin’s mind, or wave it away as pure …
Notes de l’épisode
The annual shindig of the Valdai Discussion Club is one of those Kremlin set pieces that invites two equally lazy reactions: treat it as sacred insight into Vladimir Putin’s mind, or wave it away as pure Russian propaganda. It's a bit of both, but does give an insight into Russia's changing foreign policy priorities, as much from who is invited as what is said.
(And a side-note on the questioning of Ian Proud, host of the Peacemonger podcast, on his return to the UK.)
Of course, the keynote is Putin's address and the Q&A hosted by Fyodor Lukyanov, and while much of this year's was familiar and formulaic, there were some points that made listening to this lengthy monologue of value, from how hinting at strikes on Western defence enterprises may be a new information weapon to his signals on ending the war in Ukraine: Putin’s narrowing focus on the remaining slice of Donbas, talk of neutrality, hints about cultural and language rights, and the bid to frame any settlement inside a wider European security architecture.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 264: Russia’s Bear(s) On The March
A fat, smug bear sits at the heart of Russia’s politics right now and it is not just a party logo. The State Duma election has handed United Russia - whose logo is the bear - its biggest ever share of seats. Of …
Notes de l’épisode
A fat, smug bear sits at the heart of Russia’s politics right now and it is not just a party logo. The State Duma election has handed United Russia - whose logo is the bear - its biggest ever share of seats. Of course, the vote was rigged, but what does Putin do with this mandate now? A quick look at the state of the Ukraine war (where it's heading to be a nasty winter) then leads to a few words about the threat the Russian bear poses Europe: not a direct military one, but increased and potentially risky hybrid war operations.
Then in the second half, a detour into Russia’s surge in sometimes fatal bear encounters. Is this thanks to climate change and shrinking habitats, or - and here I may be indulging my own whimsies here - considering the powerful role of the bear in Russian folklore, a Sign?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 263: Voting for War Putinism
In Russia’s elections, the ballot box is no longer a measure of consent but rather a tool for manufacturing it. It's only two days into the three days of elections to the State Duma, but I catch up on the …
Notes de l’épisode
In Russia’s elections, the ballot box is no longer a measure of consent but rather a tool for manufacturing it. It's only two days into the three days of elections to the State Duma, but I catch up on the latest and consider what to look for, before addressing the growing concern/hysteria about the Russian threat to the West (no, Putin didn't try to kill Boris Johnson), mobilisation and the BRICS summit.
In the second half, I use Dmitry Medvedev’s striking line that Russia is “either a great power or nothing at all” to unpack how status, insecurity and strategic autonomy shape Russian foreign policy, alongside insights from Hanna Notte’s excellent book We Shall Outlast Them (Norton, 2026). Russia is changing, and "War Putinism" is building something that is often ugly and hardly always efficient, but in some ways is closer to the Putin/Medvedev vision of a "great power."
Some links:
- Russian Election Monitor is here.
- The Reading Russia Right event is here
- Medvedev's interview in Vedomosti is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 262: Jaw-Jaw Not Ending The War-War
I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and …
Notes de l’épisode
I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and the SCO summit in Bishkek that was likely more significant than either of the above. (And medieval counterfeiting, for good measure...)
In the second half, I look at Russia's drone strike on the SBU HQ in Kyiv and the signs of a SBU-GUR rivalry, driven by both politics and also the thriving criminal call centre fraud industry.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 261: Happy Days for Putin?
Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these …
Notes de l’épisode
Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these days, and hence the fear that he might do something dangerously escalatory.
But is he? Things might actually look rather more encouraging from his perspective. So, in this episode, I try and peer through the Kremlin's windows, to understand how he believes things are going, in war and potential peace.
Finally, I look at Nicole Grajewski's excellent new book, Russia and Iran. Partners in defiance, from Syria to Ukraine (Hurst, 2026) and what that may say not just about the Moscow-Tehran relationship, but also our understandings of the world.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 260: Digging (Relics) For Victory
The war seems to be getting (even) nastier, in part perhaps - and this may be over-optimistic - as both sides seen an endgame almost in sight, as well as out of growing desperation on both sides. The …
Notes de l’épisode
The war seems to be getting (even) nastier, in part perhaps - and this may be over-optimistic - as both sides seen an endgame almost in sight, as well as out of growing desperation on both sides. The desperation even extends to digging up Prince Dmitri Donskoi's bones for propaganda purposes.
Then again, in the second half this gives me an excuse to talk about a couple of archaeological stories that have no real political importance, but interested me...
The episode of the Peacemonger podcast I mentioned is here. The comments are, well, quite something.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 259: A Bite Out Of The Apple
When the Kremlin changed its mind and decided to ban the opposition party Yabloko (Apple) from running in September's elections, it demonstrated its concern that this could become the new vessel of the …
Notes de l’épisode
When the Kremlin changed its mind and decided to ban the opposition party Yabloko (Apple) from running in September's elections, it demonstrated its concern that this could become the new vessel of the 'coalition of the fed-up.' After all, this seeming no-hoper party was suddenly being boosted by a guerrilla meme campaign and looked as if it might even cross the 5% threshold to get into the Duma. This could not be allowed. The Kremlin is not frightened of Yabloko winning, it is frightened of people discovering one another and forming horizontal ties in a system that relies on atomisation and apathy.
From there, I look at The Successor, Mikhail Fishman’s major new biography of Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician murdered in 2015, using it to explore the dilemmas of opposition politics under Putin: charisma versus organisation, symbols versus power, and why the 1990s still poison today’s reputations. This is also live argument splitting the exiled opposition and Western commentators: should the priority be sanctions and isolation to weaken the regime, or protecting Russians while trying to build a credible future political force? It’s dissident moral authority versus politician’s ambition, with the added warning that collapsing systems can usher in something worse.
The articles I mention are Nigel Gould-Davies's first in the Spectator, then Ilya Yashin's rebuttal in the Moscow Times, followed again by Gould-Davies here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 258: The Ukraine War and Russia's Khaki Election
Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russia is no longer just about spectacular refinery fires. When Kyiv pivots towards softer targets like logistics hubs, it can hit morale, prices, and everyday life in ways …
Notes de l’épisode
Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russia is no longer just about spectacular refinery fires. When Kyiv pivots towards softer targets like logistics hubs, it can hit morale, prices, and everyday life in ways that pure military targets do not. It is also a reminder of the innovation cycle in the war: Ukraine shifts tactics, Russia adapts, and both sides hunt for the next gap in air defences and the next pressure point that the public cannot ignore. What is the political intent behind these strikes, and how may Moscow respond?
In the second half, I look at the political battlefield ahead of State Duma elections. Putin suddenly tried to present himself as the caring tsar, parties fight for the grey vote, and the only credible liberal option, Yabloko, faces a squeeze. How far will the political technology go, and can a managed election still look credible during a real war?The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 257: A Tale Of Two Systems
Zelensky sacks a defence minister, then removes his commander-in-chief, and suddenly the question is not “who is better?” but “who controls the politics of war?” I use this as an opportunity to explore the …
Notes de l’épisode
Zelensky sacks a defence minister, then removes his commander-in-chief, and suddenly the question is not “who is better?” but “who controls the politics of war?”
I use this as an opportunity to explore the systemic warfighting capacities of Ukraine and Russia defined not so much in military but political terms: political focus, generating and motivating soldiers, and learning. Russia can concentrate resources and recruit with money longer than many expect, but morale, discipline, and selective adaptation bite hard when reforms threaten the regime’s control. Ukraine looks more politically contested, yet its civic autonomy and bottom-up innovation can translate into faster learning and stronger buy-in. Which matters more in the end, mass or legitimacy?
The books I discuss are:
Serhiy Kudelia, Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine (Oxford UP, 2025)
Edward Crowther, War in Ukraine, Vol. 1: Armed Formations of the Donetsk People’s Rep 2014-2022 (Helion, 2022)
Illya Sekirin, Rise of the Machines – Drone Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War, edited by Andrew Simms (Helion, 2026)
The articles I mention are:
Balász Jarábik, 'Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?,' Carnegie Politika, 24 July 2026
Fabrizio Minniti & Giangiuseppe Pili, ‘Russia’s Selective Adaptation: Command, Control and the Limits of Learning in War,' RUSI, 22 July 2026
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 256: Desperation, Escalation, Mobilisation
Putin is being pressed by some within the elite to call it quits and freeze the war on the current front line, by others to step up and try and impose a quick military solution. His natural impulse is to put …
Notes de l’épisode
Putin is being pressed by some within the elite to call it quits and freeze the war on the current front line, by others to step up and try and impose a quick military solution. His natural impulse is to put off decisions, but Kyiv's campaign against Crimea may make that impossible. He seems determined to hold out for the last bit of the Donbas, so he has to escalate. With other options, from nuclear demonstration to stepping up the covert campaign in Europe not being viable, all he has is expanding the force in Ukraine, and that will require an unpopular and dangerous mobilisation.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 255: Chekistocracy? Or, Power and the Spooks in Putin's Russia
“Russia is run by the spooks” is a satisfying line, but it is also a lazy one. Despite talk of a 'Chekistocracy' run by the intelligence and security services, the FSB, SVR and GRU are better …
Notes de l’épisode
“Russia is run by the spooks” is a satisfying line, but it is also a lazy one. Despite talk of a 'Chekistocracy' run by the intelligence and security services, the FSB, SVR and GRU are better understood as competing institutional actors than as a single all-powerful caste pulling every lever in the Kremlin.
In that context, "power" itself is a complex phenomenon, and I outline a framework of six different kinds of power: the ability to dictate policy, the court politics of access and trust, the quiet art of resistance, the deeper pull of conceptual dominance through briefings and narratives, the pre-emptive authority that makes leaders avoid a fight, and the transactional coalitions that get things done below the apex.
In the second part, I look at three excellent journalistic accounts of covert operations:
- Shaun Walker, The Illegals. Russia’s Most Audacious Spies And The Plot To Infiltrate The West (Profile Books, 2025)
- Drew Hinshaw & Joe Parkinson, Swap, A Secret History Of The New Cold War (Harpercollins, 2025)
- Bojan Pancevski, The Nord Stream Conspiracy (Hutchinson, 2026)
The SSEES event I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 254: Endgames
A collection of stories to discuss, but all of which in one way or another come down to endgames: the death of Sergei Ivanov, the "drone siege" of Crimea, the debate over the use of non-strategic nuclear …
Notes de l’épisode
A collection of stories to discuss, but all of which in one way or another come down to endgames: the death of Sergei Ivanov, the "drone siege" of Crimea, the debate over the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, and a shell-shocked soldier threatening mutiny. How far, to put it fancifully, does what feels like the increasing the emergence of all kinds of false prophets, end is nigh doomsayers, cultists and rabblerousers tell us something about the mood in Russia?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 253: The Fall Of Antikvar
A 74-year-old port magnate known in the underworld as Antikvar is arrested by an FSB team, hauled into Moscow’s Basmanny Court, and suddenly the ghosts of St Petersburg’s wild 1990s feel very alive. Ilya …
Notes de l’épisode
A 74-year-old port magnate known in the underworld as Antikvar is arrested by an FSB team, hauled into Moscow’s Basmanny Court, and suddenly the ghosts of St Petersburg’s wild 1990s feel very alive. Ilya Traber's career took him from from antiques monopolies to oil terminals, in the murky interface between “authoritative business” and outright organised crime. And much of it thanks to his relationship with Putin in and since the 1990s.
Traber's name has run through the bloody annals of 'Banditsky Peterbug,' so why act now? My theory: he overstepped the bounds of the new rules, at a time when serious figures within the FSB, including First Deputy Director Korolev, had reason to go after him.But this would have come to nothing had Traber's old partner Putin not given the green light. When the decision is made at the top, even yesterday’s “untouchables” can become expendable.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 252: All the Pieces of Peace in Ukraine
Peace gets talked about as if it is a destination we can spot from the front line, but the closer we look, the more it feels like a mirage. Ukraine’s mid-range strikes and tactical gains tempt commentators into …
Notes de l’épisode
Peace gets talked about as if it is a destination we can spot from the front line, but the closer we look, the more it feels like a mirage. Ukraine’s mid-range strikes and tactical gains tempt commentators into declaring a decisive shift, and then into assuming peace is near. Real progress matters, but overconfident stories can set the public up for disappointment and push policymakers towards shortcuts.
I take an article by British ex-diplomat Ian Proud on what he thinks a peace would require - I agree with many of his diagnoses, but not with a lot of his prescriptions - as a starting point to explore the different moving parts within any peace process. I don't end up feeling especially optimistic, although Russia could still just stop fighting at any time.
The Proud article, by the way, is here: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-europe-talks/
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 251: The Near Abroad Recedes: Armenia and Belarus
Russia still talks about the “Near Abroad” as if the map never changed, but the region is changing anyway. After a quick touch on Zelensky's open letter to Putin and the St Petersburg International …
Notes de l’épisode
Russia still talks about the “Near Abroad” as if the map never changed, but the region is changing anyway. After a quick touch on Zelensky's open letter to Putin and the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, I dive into the relative trajectories of Armenia, currently at the polls, and Belarus, emphatically not. Despite its continued use of this problematic, imperialist term the "Near Abroad," in different ways, Moscow’ is finding its influence fraying across the former Soviet space, and why the Kremlin is leaning harder on pressure, deniability, and narrative spin to compensate for a shrinking sphere of influence.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 250: Moscow's Comms Playbook (And Why It's So Bad)
A Russian drone hits a Romanian apartment block, two civilians are injured, and suddenly a stray weapon becomes a case study in how Putin’s Kremlin handles bad news. Why does the Kremlin’s crisis management …
Notes de l’épisode
A Russian drone hits a Romanian apartment block, two civilians are injured, and suddenly a stray weapon becomes a case study in how Putin’s Kremlin handles bad news. Why does the Kremlin’s crisis management default to a belligerent, self-sabotaging sequence that turns a manageable incident into a wider political problem?
It comes down to the priorities of an insecure, personalistic authoritarian system that equates any admission of failure with weakness, that regards information as a battlefield, and which lacks institutional filters between personality and policy.
Details of the 23 June event in Potsdam I mentioned are:https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/marc-galeotti-autocracy-vs-technocracy-explaining-ukraine-war-6107930
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 249: Pragmatism in Asia
After Putin's Beijing visit - long on rhetoric, short on results - I look more broadly as Asia: the limits of the "friendship with no limits" with China, heding with India, and the ebbing of hegemony in …
Notes de l’épisode
After Putin's Beijing visit - long on rhetoric, short on results - I look more broadly as Asia: the limits of the "friendship with no limits" with China, heding with India, and the ebbing of hegemony in Central Asia. In short, everyone is a transactional pragmatist, behind the talk of "all-weather partnerships" and "eternal friendships." But then again, isn't everyone everwhere, these days?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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In Moscow's Shadows 248: What If?
First, a round up of some current issues: Putin heading to China, two governors out (and two men with Ukraine war connections in), party politics and the jostling for second place, and how the Council of Europe …
Notes de l’épisode
First, a round up of some current issues: Putin heading to China, two governors out (and two men with Ukraine war connections in), party politics and the jostling for second place, and how the Council of Europe is implicitly encouraging Putin to stay in power until he dies...
In the second half, the opening episode of a series of alternative history (the rest will be available to paying Patrons) exploring some of the great what-ifs. This time, what if Kyiv had surrendered to the Mongols in 1240 and never lost its pre-eminence? Following that single fork in the road leads to a different centre of gravity, different institutions, and maybe even a world where “Ukraine” never emerges in the way we know it.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 247: Victory Day Without The Victory
No tanks, great camera work. Victory Day is supposed to be Russia’s most unshakeable story, the moment when the state proves its strength, its allies, and its confidence on Red Square. Yet watching this year’s …
Notes de l’épisode
No tanks, great camera work. Victory Day is supposed to be Russia’s most unshakeable story, the moment when the state proves its strength, its allies, and its confidence on Red Square. Yet watching this year’s parade, I can’t escape the sense that the symbolism is working harder than the reality: fewer troops, no heavy hardware in Moscow, and security concerns hanging over the whole performance.
In the rest of the podcast, I look at a leaked report on spinning peace and wonder if it part of an attempt to lobby Putin indirectly, the appointment of a new commander of Aerospace Forces, Colonel General Chaiko, and that (to me, pretty dodgy) 'European intelligence report' that has caused such a storm.
The bigger point is simple and uncomfortable: disinformation and psychological warfare are part of how this conflict is fought, and they thrive on our appetite for certainty.
The Kyiv Independent report I mentioned is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 246: Is Russia A Great Power?
A battlefield setback in Mali sparks a much bigger question: what kind of power is Russia now, and what kind of power can it afford to be? Is it a superpower? No. Is it a great power? It depends what you mean …
Notes de l’épisode
A battlefield setback in Mali sparks a much bigger question: what kind of power is Russia now, and what kind of power can it afford to be? Is it a superpower? No. Is it a great power? It depends what you mean. It certainly is not just the "gas station with nukes" of the cliche.
Putin’s language of “sovereign civilisation” recasts greatness as resistance rather than dominance, especially as Victory Day messaging leans on endurance. I argue Russia is a middle power that can pivot, triangulate and sometimes punch above its weight without shaping the world order.
That's no bad thing. Russia (and Putin) are not "failures" as some would suggest, even if they have by no means hit their grand, aspirational goals. Russia would be a lot happier if it accepted this status but for Putin and his Homo Sovieticus peers, alas, this is not enough - and that is what has lead us all to the present unhappy place.
The article I mentioned from The i Paper is here, and the Deutsche Welle video is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 245: Belousov And The War Machine
Putin didn’t pick a battlefield hero to run Russia’s Defence Ministry. He picked Andrei Belousov, an economist with a planner’s instincts and a technocrat’s patience. Thats what the Kremlin thinks it needs most …
Notes de l’épisode
Putin didn’t pick a battlefield hero to run Russia’s Defence Ministry. He picked Andrei Belousov, an economist with a planner’s instincts and a technocrat’s patience. Thats what the Kremlin thinks it needs most right now: a 'Quartermaster-in-Chief,' who wouldn't tangle with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, but instead focus in procurement that works, production at scale, drones that reach units fast, and a defence industrial complex that can keep up with an ugly, grinding war economy.
He is satisfying Putin, the generals and society -- for now. But his legitimacy depends on results, he is boxed in by a team of deputies representing other factions and interests, and in many ways the real tests begin when the war ends.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 244: The War Word And The Clickbait Trap
The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: politicians who want public backing for big defence spending, media …
Notes de l’épisode
The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: politicians who want public backing for big defence spending, media outlets that live on attention, and all of us who share first and think later.
I look at two particular examples: the current fascination in the British press with the idea that Russia may launch an attack using long-range missiles, and a truly insane essay by Konstantin Malofeyev in his Tsargrad media outlet fantasising about a tactical nuclear strike to end the Ukraine war.
The British article is here, the Russian one here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 243: Who Controls The Story In Russia?
Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds where modern Russia tries to control what people see as true …
Notes de l’épisode
Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds where modern Russia tries to control what people see as true, normal, and inevitable, and where society still finds ways to push back even when formal protest is risky, whether in framing Harry Potter, or surviving in the occupied Donbas.
The books in question are:
- Alexis Lerner, Post-Soviet Graffiti. Free Speech in Authoritarian States (University of Toronto Press, 2025) - see also her Eurasian Knot podcast interview here.
- Michael Gorham, Networking Putinism. The rhetoric of power in the digital age (Cornell University Press, 2026)
- Eliot Borenstein,The Politics of Fantasy. Magic, Children’s Literature and Fandom in Putin's Russia (University of Wisconsin Press, 2025).
- Greta Lynn Uehling, Everyday War: The Conflict Over Donbas, Ukraine (Cornell University Press, 2023)
- David Lewis, Occupation. Russian Rule in Southeastern Ukraine (Hurst, 2025)
- Martin Laryš, Rebel Militias in Eastern Ukraine, from leaderless groups to proxy armies (Routledge, 2025).
Details of the Times event on 7 May I mentioned are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 242: Igor Sechin, Sharpening Putin's Pencils for 30 Years
Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmistakably in the background. The idea seems to have been …
Notes de l’épisode
Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmistakably in the background. The idea seems to have been initiated by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s gravel-voiced boss and one of the most polarising figures in Putin’s circle. After keeping a low profile since 2022, why is he coming back into the news? Because of the 'Prigozhin Syndrome': if you are a crony, not a friend, if you want something from the boss, you also need to demonstrate your utility.
That early podcast from 2022, by the way, In Moscow's Shadows 2: Mishustin, Sechin, Institutional vs Personal Power, is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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In Moscow's Shadows 241: When Attack Dogs Turn
A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Russian-speaking Estonian “Narva People’s Republic” look like a …
Notes de l’épisode
A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Russian-speaking Estonian “Narva People’s Republic” look like a Kremlin disruption operation: manufacturing attention, stoking anxiety, and forcing journalists and officials into a no-win choice between silence and amplification.
Rather more significant is the case of St Petersburg lawyer and Kremlin-friendly smear merchant, Ilya Remeslo, who has abruptly posted “Five Reasons Why I Stopped Supporting Vladimir Putin”, and then reportedly ended up in a psychiatric ward. A genuine conversion, a breakdown, a trap to catch dissidents, a pretext to shut down Telegram amid internet restrictions, or a very old-fashioned quest for money and status?
Maybe the regime really is under a kind of threat, not from a coup, but a slower, messier dissolution: elite resource fights, regional pushback over internet outages, war weariness, nationalist critiques from different directions. Russian political life is not dead, merely defrosting.Details of the event at the University of Chester on 16 April are here.
You can find details of my books, in English and translation, at my In Moscow's Shadows blog page, here.
Tom Adshead's New Kremlinology substack is here.
And if you want to know more about Russians With Attitude, look here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.Chapitres
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