Fermilab’s Scott Dodelson on Cosmology’s Crisis - #565
Notes de l’épisode
Scott Dodelson spent ten years on the Dark Energy Survey testing the standard model of cosmology. It passed and missed by 2.5 sigma. The Director of Fermilab’s Cosmic Physics Division on why the theory he helped build may be wrong, why nobody can find dark matter, and what it takes to change a scientific consensus. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation.
Dodelson is Director of the Cosmic Physics Division at Fermilab, Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of Chicago, and author of Modern Cosmology, the textbook a generation of cosmologists learned the field from.
Lambda-CDM predicts how the early universe’s tiny fluctuations grew into the structure we see today. The Dark Energy Survey was designed to check that prediction. The answer came back two and a half sigma off. That is both the most precise measurement ever made of how the universe grew, and a crack he cannot stop looking at. His question is not whether the model is close. It is whether close is enough to trust.
We get into the Sigma-8 tension and what it actually takes for a scientific community to change its mind, the Dodelson-Widrow mechanism and his 1994 proposal that sterile neutrinos produced in the early universe could constitute dark matter, and the Neptune vs. Vulcan history of getting dark matter right and wrong. Asked which of those two situations we are in now, Dodelson’s answer is: I have no idea.
What you’ll hear:
Why the April 24, 1992 CMB discovery may have been the only science story ever to lead the New York Times front column
The Dodelson-Widrow mechanism: how ordinary neutrinos in the early universe may have oscillated into the dark matter we see today
Why Brian told Neil deGrasse Tyson to his face that we have already detected dark matter
What it means when a theory can accommodate any result and whether inflation has that problem
Why the particle physics community still does not trust cosmology’s neutrino mass measurements
What cosmology looks like in 2036 if Lambda-CDM breaks
Killing the model is my dream.
0:00 None of it has been found in a lab. How many free passes do we get?
0:44 Dodelson helped build Lambda-CDM. His dream is to kill it.
2:10 10 years. One prediction. Two and a half sigma off.
5:42 "You're in charge" — what mentorship in science actually looks like
6:56 April 24, 1992: cosmology stopped being speculation
9:48 Geoff Burbidge went to his grave a steady-state believer
11:04 What a neutrino is and why it barely interacts with anything
12:36 Brian told Neil deGrasse Tyson we already detected dark matter
18:08 How ordinary neutrinos may have become dark matter
23:24 Lambda-CDM predicts Manhattan's density 13.7 billion years later
26:42 Two and a half sigma: technically a 1% chance the theory is right
28:04 Neptune was dark matter. Vulcan wasn't. Which one are we in now?
31:20 Dark matter, inflation, dark energy: none found in a lab
36:46 If both cracks are the same crack, Lambda-CDM is finished
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Featured Guest:
Scott Dodelson Substack: https://scottdodelson.substack.com/about
Scott Dodelson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-dodelson-b6ba429/
Scott Dodelson on Twitter/X: https://x.com/ScottDodelson
Modern Cosmology (book): https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/monograph/9780128159484/modern-cosmology
Dark Energy Survey final results: https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/news-and-results/darchives/
Dodelson and Widrow 1994, Sterile neutrinos as dark matter: https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9303287
Previous ITI episode with Kyle Dawson on DESI: https://youtu.be/LPx4oiwGp2k?si=u_ZJWfJG5AhvBAEv
My books:
Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA
Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu
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Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un
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