Other People’s Money with Max Wiethe
- Épisodes
- 86
- Parution
- hebdomadaire
- Dernier épisode
- 11 Nov 2026
À propos du podcast
A finance podcast about investing, markets, and the big things that are affecting my, your, and other people's money. New episodes weekly with top fund managers, analysts, and business leaders. Follow us on: Max's Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe OPM on Twitter: https://x.com/opmpod Watch OPM and our Partner Show Monetary Matters on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeyqw1Ns_cnhSJh5XvXPWgw
Épisodes 86
Too Much Compute: Why This Top Hedge Fund Manager Believes AI is Heading for a Massive Oversupply | David Orr
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ In this episode of Other People's …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with Militia Capital founder David Orr to discuss the recent unwinding of the massive AI infrastructure and semiconductor trade. Orr explains his contrarian thesis that AI compute is rapidly heading for a massive oversupply because the physical world will take years to catch up with our new abundance of digital intelligence. The conversation explores the deflationary impact AI will have on white-collar jobs, how it threatens the moats of major software companies, and the potential for a societal shift back toward hands-on physical trades. Finally, Orr shares his perspective on the downside protection offered by hyperscalers and how he is managing his fund's net exposure during a volatile market environment.
Read Militia’s new Substack: https://content.militia.com
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:30 AI Trade Unwinds
05:58 CapEx Drives Glut
08:13 Software Correlation
09:42 Hyperscalers Advantage
14:39 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:59 Antitrust And Search
21:18 Physical Bottlenecks
26:02 Demand Narratives Shift
27:14 White Collar Automation
32:20 The Impact on Skilled Labor
34:25 Software Moats and Deflation
38:31 Back to Physical World
44:53 Social Media Moats Debate
51:45 Market Exposure Wrap Up
Structural Flows Will Support Stocks Until the U.S. Treasury Crisis in 2027 | Cem Karsan & Noel Smith | Kai Asset Management
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Cem Karsan and Noel Smith, co-CIOs of …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Cem Karsan and Noel Smith, co-CIOs of Kai Asset Management, join OPM with Max Wiethe to dissect the volatility compression that is currently masking extreme dispersion across equity markets. Karsan explains why the current is one major catalyst away from a fat-tail Minsky moment, while Smith outlines the exact options strategies they are deploying to navigate the market's structural fragility. The duo also breaks down the macro shift toward populist, demand-side economics, predicting that structural inflation is here to stay and the value factor will crush growth investing in that environment. Finally, they reveal why an impending U.S. Treasury crisis will force the Federal Reserve to deploy massive quantitative easing, effectively bringing state-run intervention to U.S. equities to prevent a market collapse.
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Post Midterms Volatility Break
04:20 Crash Risk and Fat Tails
09:52 Catalysts and Timing Window
12:30 Skew Explained and Carry Trade
15:14 AI Calls and Rotation Flows
18:09 Sarmaya LENS ETF
19:36 December OPEX Flow Pressure
27:40 Do You Need a Catalyst?
30:12 Index Calm but Violent Sector Rotation
35:58 Populism Will Drive the Value Factor
44:22 Why Rates Stay Higher
48:50 Treasury Crisis and QE
52:38 Partnership and Process
54:15 Options Structures and Catalysts
57:36 Three-Legged Market Stool
01:04:04 Conclusion
Why This Short Seller Doesn’t Want to Short the AI Bubble | Russell Clark
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Russell Clark, founder of Brumby …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Russell Clark, founder of Brumby, joins Other People’s Money to unpack the market fallout from the recent US midterm elections. They explore the systemic shift toward pro-labor policies and wage-driven inflation, which Clark believes will persistently drive bond yields into the pain zone. The conversation also tackles the massive AI data center build-out, with Clark breaking down exactly why betting against this exponential trend remains an incredibly dangerous game for short sellers. Finally, they discuss the shrinking pool of global capital, what it means for private equity and US homebuilders, and why he believes Japan is quietly emerging as the most attractive market for investors.
Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com/
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Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:06 Midterms Blue Wave
03:00 Bond Market Fallout
05:17 Data Center Politics
09:08 AI Short Thesis
13:10 Equity Funding Still Flows
17:17 Sarmaya Partners LENS
18:44 Capital Scarcity Rising Yields
23:19 Short Ideas
26:38 Homebuilders
30:23 Fed Hikes And Sticky Inflation
33:11 Buybacks vs. Capex
42:14 Why Japan Looks Different
47:11 Which Trump Policies Persist
50:00 Iran War Politics and Risks
55:29 Conclusion
The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Vincent Deluard, Director of Global …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, breaks down why a broader equity bear market may already be underway beneath surface-level index strength. Deluard unpacks the approaching stagflationary squeeze, driven by persistent wage pressures, slowing fiscal subsidies, and a looming political gridlock that strips away both monetary and fiscal safety nets. He outlines a tactical rotation out of equities and into long-term Treasuries over the next six months, capitalizing on year-end liquidity, pension fund rebalancing, and debt ceiling constraints. Finally, the conversation looks abroad to the escalating fiscal spiral in France and the broader structural crisis facing the Eurozone, mapping out why currency devaluation or fragmentation may be inevitable.
Follow Vincent on X: https://x.com/VincentDeluard
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Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
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X https://x.com/opmpod
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:03 Bear Market Call
02:58 Why Treasuries Now
07:12 Secular Inflation View
08:46 AI Bubble and Taxes
11:38 Fiscal Boost to Margins
14:55 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:22 Fed Stagflation Trap
24:53 Oil Shock Tail Risk
29:24 France Debt Spiral
34:55 Euro Devaluation Fix
40:07 Weak Euro Politics
43:53 Euro Designed for Crisis
48:34 ECB Tightening and Succession
52:33 Brazil Election Shock and Flows
56:12 Brazil Terms of Trade Tailwinds
The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMO
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply. He also outlines how this equity supply in conjunction with a slowdown in the AI buildout from realizations of an AI overbuild could send the stock market down as much as 50% with even greater pain for the most AI linked companies.
Read GMO’s Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2026/gmo-quarterly-letter_3q-2026.pdf
Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
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X https://x.com/opmpod
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:10 AI Bubble Setup
06:12 Equity Supply Matters More
10:44 IPO Wave Math
15:32 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:59 Dotcom Fiber Parallel
20:32 Finding Non-AI Bets
24:06 Passive Flows and Liquidity
29:40 Credit Risks and Spillovers
37:51 Can Government Backstop AI?
41:48 Credit Stress Check
45:36 Energy Portfolio Benefits
48:13 Value Versus Growth Spreads
50:10 Ex-US AI Winners
54:34 Big Tech Commoditizes Compute
57:00 What If Mega Caps Go Sideways?
01:01:53 Memory: Cyclical Peak Earnings Trap
01:05:09 The Major Crash Scenario
01:10:44 Conclusion
Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions.
Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/
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Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
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X https://x.com/opmpod
Important Information
The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.
An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.
ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/
Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.
Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.
Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.
The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Are We in a Bubble?
04:14 Rates Growth and Bonds
07:04 Value Investing Reframed
09:37 Micron Peak Earnings Debate
11:20 Intel Foundry
15:24 Sarmaya LENS ETF
16:52 Sizing Themes and Diversifying
18:41 Undervalued Challengers: Lyft & Instacart
29:10 Energy Sector Setup
35:40 Portfolio Construction & Shorts
37:47 Shorting Texas Pacific Land Trust
41:24 Royalty Trusts and Mesabi
47:16 Retail Shorts: Casey’s & Grocers
52:43 AI Industrials, Quantum, & Aerospace
55:37 Offshore Wind and Conclusion
The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses …
Notes de l’épisode
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue
07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A
15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers
16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus
18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity
24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers
29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap
34:46 Why Interval Funds List
39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset
43:33 Permanent Capital Explained
50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity
54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity
01:04:17 Conclusion
Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 …
Notes de l’épisode
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein
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Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
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X https://x.com/opmpod
JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer
02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields
05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate
07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks
08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility
11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom
14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes
17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break
18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending
20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag
23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup
25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?
26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention
31:20 Korea Silicon Boom
35:43 Europe Under Pressure
39:25 Middle East Outlook
43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices
48:34 China Oil Strategy
52:10 Big Calls Wrap
Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his …
Notes de l’épisode
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.
Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K
05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates
09:24 Portfolio Positioning
12:28 Managing Miner Cycles
16:26 Plutus
18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer
20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories
33:23 Royalties as Exposure
36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies
42:48 Why Uranium Now
46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply
51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout
54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era
01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks
01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap
01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow
Hunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters Capital
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric …
Notes de l’épisode
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction
07:56 Fraud Report Origin
09:35 Block Models Explained
15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed
21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects
25:12 Venture Like Investing
28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising
33:43 Sentiment and Cycles
38:28 M&A Wave Ahead
43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging
46:57 Long Activism Approach
50:23 Scaling the Strategy
55:10 When Alpha Shows Up
The Certainty Premium: What’s Driving the Tech Sector Divergence? | Jeff Keller
Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is …
Notes de l’épisode
Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:13 Tech Sector Divergence
05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks
08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking
12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits
17:35 Retail Crowding Warning
20:15 2021Parallels
23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout
27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift
29:43 CapEx is Existential
35:17 Meta Breakdown
39:38 Investor Positioning Themes
41:34 Long Biased Long Short
43:55 What Would Break AI?
46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk
49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes
51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook
56:58 Year End Watchlist
58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect
01:01:06 Conclusion
Time to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren Pies
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro
In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector.
Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Why Macro Takes Over
03:19 Earnings Season Structure
05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts
08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced
10:37 Political Pressure on Fed
15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM
17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics
19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium
24:54 How to Position in September
26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks
30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check
34:40 Tech Leadership Needed
38:17 Data Center ROI Debate
40:36 Election and Policy Risk
43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats
47:35 Energy as Diversifier
51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact
55:01 Software Versus Semis
58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations
01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook
01:02:55 Conclusion
Is Private Equity Broken? Why the Buyside’s Problems Are Making 2026 “The Year of the Banker” | High Yield Harry
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment …
Notes de l’épisode
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path.
Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:45 Year of the Banker
03:38 Private Credit Redemptions
07:04 Retail Flows and Gating
10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring
13:17 Career Pyramid Reality
15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work
17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops
20:27 Operators and Real Economy
23:56 Agents and Human Edge
26:39 Who Gets Displaced?
31:46 Rates and Longer Holds
37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb
41:16 Choosing Your Career Track
47:22 Top Jobs and Trading
51:56 Closing Takeaways
54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs
57:03 Conclusion
Ex-Goya COO on the $1.4 Trillion Family Business Opportunity in Three Consumer Sectors | Andy Unanue
Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy …
Notes de l’épisode
Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy shares how his experience in a family-run business shaped his firm's strategy of partnering with lower-middle-market, family-run companies across those sectors and explains how AUA unlocks 15% to 30% operational efficiencies. The discussion dives into major consumer trends, including the humanization of pets, the rise of ethnic food markets, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on snacking habits. Finally, Andy offers actionable advice on navigating generational wealth transfers, building positive workplace cultures, and transitioning family enterprises for long-term success.
Learn more about AUA Private Equity Partners: https://auaequity.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:51 Goya Roots to PE
02:48 Market Size Focus
04:21 Operational Playbook
07:26 Exit Paths for Families
09:34 PE Exits and Buyers
13:18 Leaving Upside for the Next Buyer
16:17 Macro Trends Tailwinds
21:22 Beverage Bets and Risk
28:29 Authenticity Wins Consumers
31:41 Marketing and Internet Shift
36:10 Deal Sourcing and Moats
39:08 Co-Manufacturing Advantage
41:14 Regional Brands and Add Ons
44:56 Manufacturing Renaissance
53:34 Wealth Transfer and Family Offices
58:58 AUA Future and Wrap Up
Luke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.
Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:52 Bond Selloff Explained
04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics
08:22 Global Defense Stimulus
09:58 Real Yields Reality Check
13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy
15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise
16:57 AI Trade Meets China
20:52 Labor Data Warning
23:02 AI Backstop Coming
26:28 No Long Bond Floor
30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate
35:27 China Gold Buying Surge
36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage
39:19 Pain Contest with The West
43:22 Inequality and Instability
47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap
50:03 Buy the Dip
52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism
54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk
58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options
01:02:55 What Breaks First?
01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble
Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark
Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs In this episode of Other People's …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb
Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs
In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets.
Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com
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SOYB Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/soyb
Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund.
This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb.
Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky
04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds
08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary
14:12 Japan Leads
16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields
20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB
21:58 High Real Rates New Normal
26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise
29:09 Housing Tug of War
34:02 Politics Converge Anyway
36:03 Chips Are New Oil
38:38 Is AI a Bubble?
44:12 AI and Wage Politics
50:37 Strategic AI Spending
54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks
59:29 Private Credit Red Flags
01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links
Turbocharged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital
Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend …
Notes de l’épisode
Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:14 Do You Need Big Trends
03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends
05:00 Oil Curve Positioning
07:43 Model Design Not Discretion
09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ
16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks
19:04 Sizing Beats Entry
25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality
32:41 High Octane Philosophy
35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge
39:04 Why Trends End Late
41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals
46:28 What’s Trending Now
49:57 Spreads Underperforming
52:37 When Signals Die
57:49 Simple Robust Parameters
01:00:59 Design Without Optimization
01:05:43 Diversification and Investors
01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix
01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol
01:15:54 Conclusion
Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group
Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on …
Notes de l’épisode
Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on Japan as a new source of alpha, spurred by the country's historic corporate governance reforms, the unwinding of cross-shareholdings, and the new NISA guidelines driving unprecedented retail investment. Additionally, McGould breaks down how the AI capital expenditure arms race is shaping global equity issuance and explains why the multi-manager "pod shop" model is the true modern successor to Wall Street's legacy proprietary trading desks.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Japan Market Shift
01:29 Lighthouse Group
04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs?
10:43 Equity Issuance Signals
13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises
16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse
18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists
19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance
21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei
24:43 Korea Value Up Program
27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances
32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained
33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls
34:44 AI and Narrative Factors
41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity
44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation
50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns
53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate
57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity
Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter
Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market …
Notes de l’épisode
Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market landscape. Ritter analyzes the unprecedented potential for a wave of mega-IPOs from tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. He dives into the realities of staggering price-to-sales ratios, warning that while AI offers immense technological promise, eye-watering trillion-dollar valuations leave very little room for error. Ritter also cuts through the hype surrounding retail access to venture capital and private equity, explaining why extra layers of middlemen, "volatility washing," and an evaporating illiquidity premium mean average investors aren't actually missing out on a free lunch.
Professor Ritter’s IPO Data: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:58 Meet Mr IPO
01:40 2026 is Unprecedented
02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops
04:27 How IPO Pricing Works
05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks
09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor
13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves
16:17 Must Own AI Exposure
19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects
27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use
29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom?
32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch
35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking
39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps
49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways
Inside The Platform Helping Invest Like Substack & FinTwit's Top Researchers | Plutus
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Shashank Chiranewala, founder of the new investment platform Plutus, to explore the future of independent research and portfolio …
Notes de l’épisode
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Shashank Chiranewala, founder of the new investment platform Plutus, to explore the future of independent research and portfolio management. Shashank explains why his platform is fundamentally different from the copy trading trend, emphasizing the importance of aligning model portfolios with an investor's unique risk-reward needs rather than blindly following a single strategy. They dive into the technical nightmares of executing global, active strategies on your own—like navigating foreign market rules and tracking errors—and how Plutus provides an automated, seamless execution solution for both individual and professional investors. Finally, they discuss why top independent researchers from Substack and FinTwit are choosing to list their portfolios on Plutus rather than launching traditional fund vehicles.
Check out Plutus: https://www.runplutus.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:37 The Broken Options
03:54 From Research to Investing
04:28 Why Not Copy Trading
07:56 SPY and Portfolio Fit
12:25 Building Multi Portfolio Strategies
14:58 Menu vs Tools Debate
20:34 Execution Is the Moat
25:17 Meet the Research Partners
28:18 Who Uses Plutus?
32:04 Creators and Regulation
36:26 Big Vision and Tokenization
38:42 Taxes and Compliance
44:43 How the Platform Works
46:32 Conclusion
The US Manufacturing and Electrification Megatrends Are Here and They’re Way More Than AI | Chris Semenuk
In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Chris Semenuk, an investment partner at Tema ETFs, to discuss the massive secular tailwinds driving the US manufacturing and …
Notes de l’épisode
In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Chris Semenuk, an investment partner at Tema ETFs, to discuss the massive secular tailwinds driving the US manufacturing and electrification renaissance. Semenuk argues that after a three-year recession and decades of underinvestment, US industrial capacity and manufacturing are finally entering a powerful recovery cycle. Moving beyond the hype of AI and hyperscalers, they explore how "boring" short-cycle industrial companies like those producing essential components like ball bearings, pneumatics, and filters are primed for extraordinary earnings growth. They also discuss how America’s electrification mega trend goes beyond the AI data center buildout.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Manufacturing Recession Ends
00:46 Meet the Industrial Bull
02:00 Proof Reindustrialization Is Real
05:28 What Reindustrialization Really Means
07:49 Why Companies Build Here
12:45 Advanced Goods Not Old Jobs
15:52 AI Hype Versus Reality
17:27 Picking the Equipment Winners
21:46 Inside Factory Wall Plays
23:26 Short Cycle Sequencing
27:53 Destocking Rates Tariffs Fog
32:28 Why Stocks Held Up
37:03 Valuing Cyclical Industrials
45:05 Tariffs Drive Onshoring
50:31 Humanoids And Automation
54:31 Grid Demand Inflection
57:05 Behind the Meter Reality
01:01:10 Rural Utilities Winners
01:08:22 High Voltage Bottleneck
01:14:40 Service Backlogs and Duration
01:18:28 Secular Tailwinds Wrap Up
The AI Chip Bubble: Why South Korea & Taiwan Are In the Danger Zone | Michael Fritzell | Asian Century Stocks
In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Fritzell, author of Asian Century Stocks, to break down the massive valuation divergence playing out across Asian equity markets …
Notes de l’épisode
In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Fritzell, author of Asian Century Stocks, to break down the massive valuation divergence playing out across Asian equity markets. Michael explains why he believes the skyrocketing AI and memory chip sectors in South Korea and Taiwan have entered dangerous bubble territory, fueled by unsustainable profit estimates that ignore looming Chinese supply. Instead of chasing the tech hype, he highlights the massive upside hidden in overlooked South Korean small caps and Japanese growth stocks that are trading at single-digit multiples despite solid fundamentals. Tune in to discover how corporate governance reforms, insider buying trends, and a forming "New Cold War" are creating the ultimate stock-picker's market.
Read Asian Century Stocks: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Korea Chip Bubble Warning
00:42 Why Asia Diverges Now
02:26 AI Mania Hits Korea
04:37 Bubble Case for Memory
06:40 China Supply Response
09:18 Memory Versus Logic Chips
11:33 Speculation on the Ground
13:41 Western Investors Pile In
15:44 Japan Reforms and Yen Boom
18:26 Korea Governance Fixes
24:20 Korea Small Cap Hunting
25:45 K Beauty and Cultural Exports
30:52 Finding Ideas Before The US
31:57 Nintendo Versus Memory Costs
33:19 Nintendo Release Drought
35:36 Switch 2 Execution Questions
37:39 Family Console vs Roblox
38:25 Iran War Energy Shock
41:50 India & China Underperformance
45:17 China Crackdowns Risk
50:42 The China Gray Zone Trade
54:25 New Cold War Lines
56:54 Hunting Value Across Asia
01:02:19 Reforms and Value Programs
01:04:06 How Much to Allocate to Asia
01:07:41 Where to Follow Michael
How This Real Estate Investor is Betting on an AI Boom (It’s Not Data Centers) | Tom Shapiro
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Other People's Money, GTIS Partners founder and CIO Tom Shapiro breaks down how massive macroeconomic shifts, including …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm
In this episode of Other People's Money, GTIS Partners founder and CIO Tom Shapiro breaks down how massive macroeconomic shifts, including AI and inflation, are reshaping the global real estate landscape. He explains why his firm is heavily betting on a San Francisco recovery driven by the booming AI sector, and how they are scooping up properties at steep discounts to replacement costs. Shapiro also details the severe oversupply challenges currently stalling popular Sun Belt cities, alongside the firm's strategic push into industrial logistics to capitalize on domestic reshoring trends. Finally, he shares decades of expertise on navigating the complex Brazilian real estate market, offering a masterclass on global investment strategies in a high-interest-rate environment.
Learn more about GTIS Partners: https://www.gtispartners.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:30 Macro Shocks and Inflation
02:30 AI Disruption Risks
04:27 Tracking Jobs and Households
06:09 Immigration and Rate Politics
08:03 Build to Rent Bill Fallout
11:57 Affordability and Mortgage Rates
14:41 Fundrise Income Fund
16:36 Regional Winners and Losers
17:12 Sun Belt Oversupply Pain
19:57 San Francisco Comeback Thesis
24:35 AI Occupancy and Investment Plays
28:28 Picking Buildings Block by Block
30:02 Picking the Right Building
30:21 Safety and City Recovery
33:39 AI Jobs and Office Demand
35:17 Froth and Real Revenues
37:39 Data Centers NIMBY Debate
39:54 Reshoring and Warehouse Boom
44:09 Real Estate Capital Markets
49:07 Why Brazil Worked
52:46 Brazil Rates and Currency
55:15 Politics and China Pull
58:44 US Outlook and Wrap Up
Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm
Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector.
Follow Andreas Steno Larsen on X: https://x.com/AndreasSteno
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift
01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate
04:19 Bond Trade Timing
06:13 Steep Curve Playbook
09:41 Why Steepening Helps
12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk
14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds
16:51 India Data Versus Rupee
18:24 Energy Supply Countdown
21:23 LatAm Underperformance
23:27 AI Inflation Link
26:52 Korea Semis Surge
28:26 Momentum with Earnings
30:39 Quantum Hype Warning
32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question
34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip
39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation
43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed
46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade
49:21 Goods Inflation Returns
51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics
54:07 White Collar Disruption Map
59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts
01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge
01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap
Lending Where the Banks Won’t Go: What’s Fueling Europe’s Growing Real Estate Private Credit Market?
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Other People's Money, Thomas Lloyd-Jones, Co-founder and CIO of Zenzic Capital, joins the show to unpack the nuances of …
Notes de l’épisode
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm
In this episode of Other People's Money, Thomas Lloyd-Jones, Co-founder and CIO of Zenzic Capital, joins the show to unpack the nuances of the real estate private credit market. He explains how the media often conflates direct lending with the broader asset class, overlooking real estate and asset-backed lending. Lloyd-Jones details how increasing banking regulations are forcing traditional lenders to retreat, creating a widening gap for opportunistic credit funds to step in.
This podcast is for informational purposes only and not an inducement to invest with Zenzic Capital. Zenzic Capital’s investment products are limited to professional clients only. The information within this podcast should not be relied upon as tax, legal or investment advice.
Learn more about Zenzic Capital: https://zenziccapital.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:52 Private Credit Breakdown
03:32 BDCs And Redemptions
06:35 Allocation Failure Debate
08:47 Regulation and Fragmentation
12:07 Basel III Shift
14:10 Fundrise Income Fund
15:10 Systemic Risk and Leverage
17:36 Banks’ Retreat is Opportunity
20:56 Good vs. Bad Risk Premia
24:39 Senior Finance
28:44 Downside Protection and Spotting Bad Deals
37:48 Macro Matters for Exits
40:13 Finding Fixable Distress
43:22 Geopolitics and Rate Shock
47:01 Preferred Equity Playbook
51:49 When Development Risk Pays
54:52 Student Housing Reality Check
59:40 Macro Allocation Framework
01:01:59 Conclusion
SpaceX IPO: Why This Hedge Fund Manager is Fading the Hype | Moez Kassam
Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @MTSlive for live interviews and analysis breaking down the …
Notes de l’épisode
Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @MTSlive for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS.
Hosts Jack Farley and Max Wiethe are joined by Moez Kassam, the Chief Investment Officer of Anson Funds. Moez breaks down his strategy for generating alpha by acting as a contrarian and fading the crowd during times of rampant market speculation.
In this episode, we cover:
• The SpaceX IPO Rumors: Moez discusses the potential mechanics of the largest expected IPO in history and the rumors of early investor unlocks. He also details the "Day 9" trading strategy surrounding Nasdaq index inclusion.
• The Massive Cannabis Opportunity: Learn why Anson Funds believes the U.S. cannabis sector could see a 400% move in a few years. Moez breaks down the DEA's descheduling process and the elimination of the restrictive 280E tax code.
• Software and Activism: Why the indiscriminate selling of software stocks has created a massive opportunity for free cash flow investors and activist campaigns.
• Navigating Emerging Tech: A candid assessment of AI, Space, and Quantum technologies. Moez explains why Quantum is facing a massive discount rate and why investors should be wary of the "me-too" space stocks.
• Crypto & Private Credit: Insights from the recent Trump Crypto Conference and why the extreme negative sentiment around private credit makes its 10-15% yields highly attractive.
Follow Moez Kassam on Instagram: @munchingmoez
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:10 SpaceX IPO Setup
05:49 Index Inclusion Trade
07:21 S-1 Filing Reality Check
08:32 Elon Rolls Up Businesses
12:12 Shorting Space Me Toos
13:35 AI, Space, Quantum Hype
16:18 Software Selloff and Activism
18:42 Cannabis Contrarian Bet
21:44 Descheduling Mechanics
24:30 AI & Semis: Crowded Trade?
26:10 Crypto Mood Shift
29:29 Media Activism Plays
31:16 Software Cash Flow vs Hype
34:49 Measuring Market Sentiment
37:51 Bitcoin Crowd Psychology
40:06 Shipping and Energy Contrarian
41:16 Canada: Gold & Oil Pulse
43:35 Process Over Predictions
45:50 Private Credit Negativity
46:34 Outro
From Soros to Old Farm: How to Identify the Market’s Top Thematic Risk-Takers | Kieran Cavanna | Old Farm Partners
This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners
Kieran Cavanna, the founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners and former head of external managers at Soros Fund Management joins Other People’s Money to break down his high-conviction approach to thematic investing, explaining why "making the main thing the main thing" is the secret to capturing outsized returns in the public markets. From his time working under legendary macro investor Scott Bessent to his current focus at Old Farm Partners, Kieran shares how he identifies "asymmetric" opportunities where the upside is massive and the downside is protected. If you've ever wondered how the world’s most sophisticated allocators source managers and structure co-investments to beat the market, this is an interview you can't miss.
Listen to the Thematic Investors Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTSvmgAOiFVttgxmUaO4hSgMxutOwyS9T
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:17 Soros External Managers
03:36 What Makes Great Managers
07:01 Spotting Skill Vs Luck
08:47 Risk Management
12:37 Geography and Benchmarks
15:21 Style Drift and Communication
18:57 Fees and Multi Strat Debate
22:30 Spinouts and Independence
26:47 Co-Investing in Public Markets
30:06 Allocator Base and Drawdown Focus
31:12 Family Office Allocators
32:13 Private Credit Shift
36:57 Big Launches Small Wins
38:40 AI CapEx Main Event
41:26 Defense Tech Next Theme
42:44 Asymmetry Not Binary
44:51 Cross Sector Blind Spots
49:51 Crowded Trades Unwind
52:58 Macro Themes Bottom Up
57:37 Risks and Hedging
59:42 Thematic Investors Podcast
"I Don't Believe the Stagflation Narrative": How the Strong Consumer and AI Tailwinds Shape Sean Emory's Bullish Blueprint | Avory & Co
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&ut …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs.
Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):
https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm
Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):
https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm
In this episode of the OPM podcast, Avery and Co. founder Sean Emory explains why he firmly rejects the stagflation narrative and believes the consumer remains in fine shape. Emory argues that despite the psychological impact of higher gas prices, strong tax refunds and a stable housing market are continuing to support consistent consumer spending. He breaks down how this stable macroeconomic view aligns with his fundamental investment approach, detailing high-conviction bets on consumer-oriented companies like Clear Secure and First Watch. The conversation also explores how Emory leverages these macro insights alongside bottom-up analysis to identify long-term value in technology platforms such as Block, Zoom, and Omnicell.
Listen to Avory’s Podcast here: https://www.avory.xyz/insidescooppodcast
Follow Sean Emory on X: https://x.com/_SeanDavid
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:26 Avery Investing Style
02:56 Oil Shock Consumer Check
06:27 Housing Inflation Outlook
10:37 K Shaped Economy
13:50 AI, Employment, and Flows
18:06 Pictet AI-Enhanced Equity ETFs
19:41 Using AI for Investment Research
28:12 How AI is Making Trading More Short Term
31:09 Block ($XYZ) Investment Thesis
36:26 Zoom ($ZM) Investment Thesis
43:35 Defining Small Caps
45:57 Omnicell ($OMCL) Investment Thesis
53:42 Zillow ($Z) and Airbnb ($ABNB) Investment Thesis
54:58 Zillow Flywheel Explained
01:02:02 Housing Catalysts
01:04:30 Waiting Out AI Valuations
01:07:31 SpaceX IPO Speculation
01:09:31 Outro
"The Best Time to Invest": How AI Disruption is Reshaping Software Valuations | Ben Topor | Titan Capital Partners
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&ut …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs.
Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):
https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm
Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):
https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm
Max Wiethe sits down with Ben Topor, founder of Titan Capital Partners and author of Decoding the Software Landscape, to unpack the seismic shifts happening in the tech investment world. Topor explains how AI is commoditizing the software application layer and shares why the recent correction in software valuations makes this a prime time to invest. The conversation also delves into the booming secondary market, the structural differences between US and Israeli tech hubs, and how startups can build unbreachable AI-proof moats through distribution and proprietary data. Finally, Topor reveals the strategic tactics founders use to outmaneuver tech giants by moving in silence and misdirecting competitors.
Follow Ben Topor: https://x.com/ben_topor
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:10 Mapping the Software Landscape
03:45 What AI Changes in Software
09:13 AI Led M&A Wave
13:36 Valuations and Timing
15:34 Secondaries Liquidity Thesis
17:33 Pictet AI-Enhanced Equity ETFs
19:08 How Titan Buys Secondaries
21:07 Why Companies Stay Private
23:00 Finding Category Leaders
26:47 Reading Financial Symptoms
28:37 Mispriced Gems or Turnarounds?
31:25 Exit Paths Today
35:17 Investing in Israel
38:16 Cybersecurity Edge
41:08 Too Much Capital
43:38 AI Proof Moats
45:17 What Counts as Data
46:40 Private Credit Risks
50:36 Down Rounds Reframed
53:51 Titan’s Value Add
57:18 Competitive Maneuvering
01:02:37 Conclusion
Why Emerging Markets are Finally Outperforming Developed Markets | Robert Koenigsberger | Gramercy
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&ut …
Notes de l’épisode
This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):
Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):
Emerging market outperformance is turning investors’ heads and in this episode of Other People’s Money, Robert Koenigsberger, CIO and founder of multi-billion dollar EM alternative asset manager Gramercy, explains why the macro environment has emerging markets looking more developed than some developed markets, particularly in how swiftly their central banks acted to combat inflation. He also explains how passive index investing can do damage to an emerging market portfolio and why the typical EM approach focusing on exposure is all wrong. Koenigsberger also dives into the structural advantages of emerging market private credit over its developed market counterparts, emphasizing the importance of local networks, senior secured collateral, and having a positive influence on corporate governance.
Follow Robert Koenigsberger on X: https://x.com/GramercyRK
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Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:36 Pictet AI ETFs
01:54 How EM Investing Evolved
02:48 Why EMs Outperformed
04:08 Debt vs Equity Returns
06:09 Policy Convergence EM vs. DM
08:33 Diversifying Beyond Dollar
11:30 EM Private Credit
14:57 Pictet AI ETFs
16:32 Why Borrowers Choose Private
21:06 Defining EM Alpha
25:23 Index Construction Pitfalls
28:57 True Distress and Asymmetry
33:14 China Property Deep Value
35:15 Picking Winners at Five Cents
38:33 Sovereign Timing Checklist
40:07 Sanctions and “Uninvestibility”
43:37 Structuring Downside Control
44:58 Creditor Groups Collaboration
48:55 Restructuring Deal Template
50:23 Warrants Windfalls Risks
53:19 Governance in Private Credit
59:02 Underwriting People Networks
01:02:43 Hedging Without Shorting
01:05:49 Allocator Case for EM Credit
01:08:40 Liquidity Myths and Cycles
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