That was ugly, but are we just getting started?
Notes de l’épisode
Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more, including what is spooking this market and where to focus next as earnings season hits full stride next week. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- John's The FX Trader piece from today.
- I made an error on the podcast, it was not Michael Every himself but Every reposting a comical Luke Gromen X post asking whether this Fed will reflexively hike merely based on the direction of the oil price, in which case its monetary policy is in the hands of Iran and the IRGC.
- Coverage of China's treasury holdings and whether it is merely shifting these to custodian banks outside the US rather than reducing them materially.
- WSJ exclusive covers the Trump-Ukraine spat and wonders about the sequence of events leading to the shutdown of Ukraine's access to StarLink satellites.
- WSJ investigates on the weapons the US Space Force used in its decapitation assault on Venezuela's regime.
- For the astronomy nerds out there, an investigation based on new evidence of what dark matter is and what it isn't. Again, HT FTAlphaville.
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