(Preview) Brussels and Beijing Make a Deal; Weak Holiday Spending Data; Xi’s Reported Rest Breaks; Peak Dove?

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an extended survey of EU-PRC trade dynamics in the wake of an eventful week. Topics include: a deal on hybrid exports that may have averted a trade war, potential loopholes that may complicate the effectiveness of that reform, the tools proposed by France and Germany that may have forced a compromise, tensions that remain unresolved as the EU Council meets later this week, and a word on currency reforms as the PBOC rejects international methods for assessment. From there: Holiday spending per trip hits a four-year low amid analysis that suggests debt may be constraining stimulus measures. At the end: reactions to a report on Xi’s rest breaks at the White House, Xi succession questions, a report on the F-35 mishap, and speculating on the future of US-China relations and whether the current administration has passed peak China dove.

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Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism

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EU-China talks; PBoC on RMB; Measures for protecting the rights and interests of gig workers; Holiday spending; AI safety — Sinocism

Germany, France Push New Trade Weapon Before EU-China Talks — Bloomberg

China agrees to slash EU hybrid car exports in half, putting brake on trade war — SCMP

How China and the EU pressed pause on trade war – and what it took to get there — SCMP

EU’s fight to break China’s raw material dominance isn’t going well — Politico EU

Europe’s Final Warning — Sharp Text

The People’s Bank of China’s Policy Position on the Renminbi Exchange Rate — Sinocism Translation

China Golden Week spending per trip hits four-year low amid overseas travel jump — Reuters

China’s growing debt burden limits space for economic stimulus — FT

Chinese Bonds Become Source of Cheap Money for Global Borrowers — Bloomberg

The Bond Market’s Threat to American Hegemony — Bloomberg

Unusual Rest Breaks for Xi Jinping Sucked Hours Out of Summit With Trump — WSJ

Friends Without Benefits — Sharp Text

Trump urged Xi to talk to Takaichi and lift export curbs on Japan, sources say — SCMP

US slows aircraft-part exports to China as Trump seeks leverage in trade negotiations, sources say — Reuters

UPS Worker Missed Email, Letting China Get F-35 Parts — Bloomberg