State of Play

U.S. and European leaders have accused Russia of stepping up sabotage, drone incursions, and cyberattacks in Europe, and some warn that Russia will test NATO's article 5 resolve by striking European states with drones or missiles. This week, Max Bergmann and Dan Byman discuss what Russia is trying to achieve, what European states can do in response, and what we should expect from the United States.

• Maria Snegovaya, Tina Dolbaia, Nicholas Fenton, and Max Bergmann, "Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?" CSIS, July 14, 2026.

• Seth G. Jones, Seamus P. Daniels, Riley McCabe, and Daniel Byman, "Wartime Footing: A Two-Front Strategy to Confront China and Russia" CSIS,  June 8, 2026.

• Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen,  "How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America," CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Last weekend, the Houthis conducted their deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia for over a decade. Amb. Michael Ratney and new CSIS senior fellow Allison Minor join Will to discuss how we got to this point, whether Saudi Arabia is more likely to escalate the military campaign or try to cut a deal with the Houthis, and what role the United States will play.

• Allison Minor, "Avoiding Another Long War in Yemen," CSIS, October 15, 2026.
• Allison Minor, "All Out War in Yemen," CSIS, October 15, 2026.
• Michael Ratney, "Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium," CSIS, September 24, 2026.
• Michael Ratney, "Is the United States Abandoning Saudi Arabia at Its Moment of Need?" CSIS, September 23, 2026.

Fighting has broken out between the Ethiopian government and an alliance of 7 opposition groups. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance, though officials from all three governments have denied this. This week, Aaron Stanley and Dr. Yonas Ashine Demisse discuss how we got to this place, how shifting geopolitics are shaping conflict dynamics, and what the most likely trajectory of the war is.

• Yonas Ashine Demisse, "Rethinking Pax Africana in Multipolar Disorder: A Genealogical Return to Pan-African Futures," Security Context, August 10, 2026.
• Aaron Stanley, "After the Supermajority: Ethiopia’s Trajectory Following the 2026 Election," CSIS, June 18, 2026.
• Oge Onubogu, "In the Shadows of the Iran War: The Horn of Africa," CSIS Into Africa, March 26, 2026.

The summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could cover a range of issues to potentially include trade, investment, AI, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. The morning after the summit, CSIS’s leading China experts will provide a rapid assessment of its outcomes in a live episode of State of Play on Friday, September 25, at 9:00 AM EDT. Amb. Edgard Kagan, Dr. Thomas Christensen, Dr. Scott Kennedy, and Dr. Bonny Lin will join host Will Todman to discuss how successful the summit was and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations. This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A recent opinion poll found that Filipinos have the most positive view of President Trump of any of the 36 countries surveyed. On the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, Amb. John Negroponte and Greg Poling join Will to assess the strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, the drivers of Filipinos' positive attitudes towards the U.S., and what might threaten bilateral ties going forward.

• "Manila Strategy Forum" CSIS, September 9 to 10, 2026.

When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Will talks with Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America.

• Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026.
• Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025.
• Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025. 

Cyberattacks targeting water and wastewater utilities have been reported in at least a dozen states across the United States since late July. Although there has been no widespread contamination or immediate threat to public drinking water, it is a serious and apparently coordinated attack. Nikita Shah, Caitlin Welsh, and Lauryn Williams join Will Todman to discuss why U.S. critical infrastructure is vulnerable, what can be done to respond, and if there is enough evidence to blame Iran.

• State of Play audience survey
• Nikita Shah, "The Cyberattacks on the U.S Water Sector and the Iran Question: Escalation or Opportunism?" CSIS, August 14, 2026.
• Franck Gbaguidi and Caitlin Welsh, "Rethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk," CSIS, August 5, 2026.
• Lauryn Williams, "Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems" CSIS, August 4, 2026.

President Trump is ramping up economic pressure on Cuba and has instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to find a new leader who could work with the United States – like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Christopher Hernandez Roy and William LeoGrande join Will to discuss how the Trump administration’s strategy on Cuba is evolving, how Cuban leaders are responding, and if we are nearing an inflection point.

• State of Play audience survey
• Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark Cancian, and Henry Ziemer, "The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba," CSIS, June 3, 2026.
• William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, "Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba?" Foreign Policy, May 22, 2026.
• Christopher Hernandez-Roy et al, "Preparing for the Consequences of Collapse in Cuba," CSIS, April 9, 2026.
• William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana, University of North Carolina Press, 2014.

A Chinese submarine recently launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific, and China has been on the hunt for a security foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the United States has cut assistance and reduced its diplomatic presence in the Pacific. This week, Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik join Will to discuss China’s ambitions in the Pacific, how U.S. interests in the region are evolving, and how Pacific countries are navigating geopolitical competition.

• State of Play audience survey
• Kathryn Paik, "Bolstering Pacific Resilience: A New Paradigm for Engagement by U.S. Allies and Partners," CSIS, July 21, 2026.
• Joseph Rodgers, Bonny Lin, and Charles Edel, "Unpacking China’s Recent SLBM Test into the Pacific," CSIS, July 17, 2026.
• Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik, "The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific," Foreign Affairs, October 10, 2024.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and competing national ambitions. But did these politics shape the tournament more than in previous years? Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, and Enoh Ebong join Will to assess the geopolitical dimensions of this year's World Cup in a live episode of State of Play. They examine how host nation diplomacy, soft power competition, and economic interests played out on and off the pitch, and what the tournament revealed about the emerging world order.

• Gretchen Scott and Andrew Friedman, "Protecting Human Rights at the World Cup: Progress on Paper, Gaps on the Ground," CSIS, July 15, 2026.
• Victor Cha and Andy Lim, "The 2026 World Cup: Sports and Conflict," CSIS, June 10, 2026.

The current Ebola outbreak comes after major cuts in humanitarian and health aid and is spreading in a deeply insecure environment. This week, Steve Morrison and Michaela Simoneau of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center join Will to discuss the degree to which politics have hampered the response. They assess the global response to date, the impact of the Trump administration’s policies, and the challenges of the local context.

• J. Stephen Morrison and Michaela Simoneau, "Managing DRC’s Ebola Crisis," CSIS, June 18, 2026.
• J. Stephen Morrison, "Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, Chair, Africa CDC Emergency Consultative Group: "Congolese doctors know how to treat Ebola patients," CSIS, June 22, 2026.
• Elizabeth Cameron and J. Stephen Morrison, "America knows how to defeat Ebola" UVA Miller Center, June 29, 2026.
• "Ebola in America: Epidemic of Fear" CSIS, May 19, 2016

The G7 Summit may have defied expectations. President Trump stayed until the end, there were no big bust-ups, and lots of joint policy statements. Victor Cha, Kristi Govella, Phil Luck, and Caitlin Welsh join Will to assess how meaningful the outcomes were, what the summit tells us about the United States’ relationship with its allies, and what the value of the G7 is in the evolving international order.

• Victor Cha, "Who Are G7’s Top Performers?" CSIS, June 12, 2026.
• CSIS scholars, "Press Briefing: Previewing the G7 Summit," CSIS, June 9, 2026.

The United States and Iran announced a framework deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. CSIS Middle East Program experts Mona Yacoubian, Michael Ratney, Paul Salem, and Susan Ziadeh assess the winners and losers of the deal, what challenges lie ahead, and what it means for the emerging order in the Middle East.

The recent Xi–Kim summit has further strengthened ties between China and North Korea, with potential implications for the broader dynamics among the CRINK countries and regional security.

Dr. Victor Cha, Igor Khrestin, Joseph Kim, and Dr. Maria Snegovaya will join host Will Todman to discuss CRINK’s key vulnerabilities and examine U.S. policy recommendations for addressing the challenges the grouping poses to democracy, human rights, economic security, and national security. The discussion will draw on the GWBI’s recent report on CRINK and explore the implications of growing alignment among these authoritarian actors.

Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon.

• Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May 14, 2026.
• Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy, "Reflections from Ukraine, Crisis in the UK, and the EU's Corruption-Fighting Toolkit ft. Kövesi," CSIS, May 22, 2026.

A flurry of diplomatic activity and a reported visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea has heightened speculation that something is afoot. Victor Cha, Tom Christensen, and Edgard Kagan join Will to discuss what these signals indicate, how relations between North Korea and China are shifting, and what a Trump-Kim meeting could achieve.

• Victor Cha and Andy Lim, “Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on the Korean Peninsula?” CSIS, May 4, 2026.
• Edgard Kagan, “Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s Most Important Relationship,” CSIS, May 8, 2026.

Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are.

• Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict,” CSIS, May 14, 2026.
• Mona Yacoubian, “Lebanon’s Moment of Reckoning,” Foreign Policy, April 21, 2026.

The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward.

• Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play,” CSIS, May 15, 2026.
• Scott Kennedy, “A Confident Beijing Welcomes President Trump,” CSIS, May 11, 2026.

North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like.

• Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026.
• Sydney Seiler, “North Korea in 2026: Intentions, Realities, and Response,” CSIS, February 2, 2026.

The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to discuss how the war has reshaped the Middle East.

• Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr, "Can Saudi Arabia Keep Hedging?" Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026.
• Mona Yacoubian, "Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran," CSIS, April 17, 2026.

Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe.

• Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election? Four Scenarios to Watch,” CSIS, April 3, 2026.
• Donatienne Ruy and Maria Snegovaya, “What Is at Stake in Hungary’s Election?” CSIS, March 11, 2026.

President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay.

• Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.
• Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects.

• Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026
• David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026.
• Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026.
• Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies.

• Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026.
• "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle East. On balance, are Russia and China gaining or losing more from the war with Iran?

The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change.

• “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026.
• Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.

To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play.

• Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026.
• Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, February 28, 2026.
• Mona Yacoubian and Samuel Zabin, "If Compute is the New Oil, War in the Gulf Significantly Raises the Stakes," CSIS, February 27, 2026.

President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region.

• Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026.
• Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, February 20, 2026.
• Henrietta Levin, "The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes No Sense" Foreign Policy, July 16, 2025.

Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe.

• Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025.
• Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better.

• "Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026.
• "America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28, 2026.