Joe Consorti: Binance Hack, Midterms and Bitcoin vs AI Stocks
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin and macro analyst Joe Consorti joins Jody Flournoy and Avi Mash on The Daily Stack for midterms week. Joe breaks down the Binance hot wallet hack, why bitcoin only fell about 4% on it compared with 25% during FTX, and why on-chain sleuths point to North Korea rather than an inside job. They cover Kalshi midterm odds and a Mark Moss stat that stocks were up one year later in 17 of the last 19 midterm years, the Tucker Carlson tweet on Iran and oil, bitcoin vs gold, and the bitcoin vs memory stocks chart with Micron and Sandisk. Joe also explains why he sees money rotating out of AI names and into bitcoin, why he is a buyer of the Anthropic IPO about a year from now, plus Apple earnings, AI capex risk and treasury yields.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:15 Cold open
0:44 Joe Consorti and Avi Mash join for midterms week
1:15 The Binance hack: a backdoor into a hot wallet
2:41 North Korea, not an inside job
5:07 Bitcoin fell only 4% vs 25% during FTX
6:02 Binance's SAFU fund covers user losses
11:06 CZ, Binance and the bitcoin ethos
12:31 Midterms: what Kalshi odds and polls say
14:10 Gas prices and incumbents
18:00 Stocks and bitcoin one year after midterms
19:09 Tucker Carlson's tweet, Iran and oil
24:13 Eli Lilly: the largest company in the world?
24:56 Bitcoin vs gold rotation
26:45 Bitcoin vs memory stocks: Micron and Sandisk
27:31 Rotation out of AI ahead of the Anthropic IPO
28:56 Buying the Anthropic IPO a year from now
33:50 Anthropic, watermarking and AI profitability
34:32 AI in schools: The Great Gatsby essays
35:28 Apple earnings and AI capex risk
37:52 Midterm candidates vs data centers
39:10 Apple played AI right
41:25 Treasury yields, Fed rates and inflation
43:03 Wrap up and this week's guests
44:43 Outro
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