The DeFi Report
- Épisodes
- 46
- Parution
- hebdomadaire
- Dernier épisode
- 11 Nov 2026
À propos du podcast
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
Épisodes 46
Bitcoin Breaks the 50-Week Moving Average. Is the Early Bull Over?
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Notes de l’épisode
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Bitcoin has lost the 50-week moving average, breaking the bull-market structure Mike expected to hold. So why isn't he panicking? Mike and Ryan examine historical breakdowns, cycle indicators, extreme fear, and capital leaving crypto. They also discuss the AI selloff, midterm fallout, a potential drop to $67.8K, and the $58.5K level that could invalidate the early-bull thesis.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:20 Bitcoin Breaks the 50-Week Average
1:23 Why the Early Bull Thesis Still Holds
4:54 Bitcoin Sentiment and the Five-Year Return
9:08 Cycle Metrics and the “Golden Zone”
14:26 Past Breakdowns Below the 50-Week Average
17:25 Extreme Fear and Bearish Market Control
20:04 Stablecoin Supply and Liquidity
22:47 Midterm Election Results and Crypto Policy
29:23 Watching AI Markets and Bitcoin’s Recovery
33:36 The Bearish Scenario and a Potential Fat Pitch
36:06 Building Cash for Market Opportunities
38:30 What Would Invalidate the Early Bull Thesis?
41:06 Portfolio Strategy and Closing Remarks
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Crypto Survived the $6.3B Binance Hack...Is the Bull Market Still Intact?
A $6.3 billion Binance hack should have crushed Bitcoin. Instead, BTC barely fell, and Mike is more bullish than before. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin held its critical 50-week moving average, what the …
Notes de l’épisode
A $6.3 billion Binance hack should have crushed Bitcoin. Instead, BTC barely fell, and Mike is more bullish than before. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin held its critical 50-week moving average, what the selloff revealed about its holder base, and whether the final market reset is now complete. They also cover ETF outflows, post-election macro risks, the key levels to watch next, and why Mike still expects months of chop before the next major move.
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RESOURCESThe Watch List: Pump Fun (PUMP) & the Social Trading Market
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-pump-fun-pump-the-social-trading-marketThe Commanding Heights
https://commanding-heights.com/----
TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:22 Bitcoin’s Biggest Test Yet
1:47 Why People Make Bitcoin Volatile
3:15 The $6 Billion Hack Test
8:59 Diamond-Handed Bitcoin Holders
11:20 The Slow Leak of Selling
16:13 Altcoins After the Sell-Off
20:19 ETFs, Stablecoins, and Market Signals
22:44 Midterms and Crypto Markets
26:34 Reading the Credit Spreads
29:59 Bitcoin’s Early-Bull Outlook
34:22 The Case for Pump and Social Trading
40:04 Closing Thoughts and Disclaimers----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Can Crypto's Early Bull Survive the Stealth Bear Market?
Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a bear market. So why is Mike still bullish on Bitcoin? Mike and Ryan unpack the stealth selloff in stocks, AI financing fears, rising yields, and the looming …
Notes de l’épisode
Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a bear market. So why is Mike still bullish on Bitcoin? Mike and Ryan unpack the stealth selloff in stocks, AI financing fears, rising yields, and the looming midterms. They also break down Bitcoin’s stronger market structure, signs of seller exhaustion, and the $76K support level that could put the early-bull thesis to the test.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:16 Crypto’s Early Bull Faces a Wall of Worry
3:48 Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Test and Market Catalysts
6:41 Who’s Buying Bitcoin—and Will They Hold?
13:14 ETF Flows, Miner Confidence, and Altcoin Resets
17:48 Ethereum’s Struggle Against Bitcoin
22:19 Is a Stealth Bear Market Already Underway?
28:19 Has the Worst of the Market Selloff Passed?
33:05 Midterms, Market Risks, and Political Uncertainty
39:03 Bitcoin’s Key Test: The 50-Week Moving Average----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Is Crypto Ready for Its Next Leg Up?
Fear has returned to crypto, but the next rally may be closer than it looks. Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s resilience amid a sharp altcoin selloff, the holder rotation driving its consolidation, and why …
Notes de l’épisode
Fear has returned to crypto, but the next rally may be closer than it looks. Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s resilience amid a sharp altcoin selloff, the holder rotation driving its consolidation, and why seller exhaustion could set up the next move. They also discuss the $87K breakout level, mounting stress in AI debt markets, Bitcoin’s divergence from the Nasdaq, and whether quality altcoins are becoming attractive again.
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RESOURCESThe Watch List: ETH Q3 Update
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-eth-q3-updateThe Watch List: SOL Q3 Update
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-sol-q3-update----
TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:13 Bitcoin Holds Strong as Altcoins Fearful
4:00 Bitcoin’s Cycle Signals & Capitulation
11:19 Bitcoin Dominance and Strategy’s Next Move
17:51 AI Debt Fears & Credit Spreads
22:30 Treasury Yields, Stocks, & Capital Flows
31:42 Debt Risks, Bitcoin, & Government Intervention
35:30 Bitcoin Versus & Nasdaq
39:11 Altcoin Dips and Portfolio Strategy
43:02 Ether, Solana, & Closing Thoughts----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Early Bull Reset? Why 2026 Looks Like 2023
An early bull market doesn’t always feel bullish. Mike and Ryan compare today’s crypto setup to 2023, when Bitcoin chopped sideways for seven months before its next major rally. They break down Mike’s 90% …
Notes de l’épisode
An early bull market doesn’t always feel bullish. Mike and Ryan compare today’s crypto setup to 2023, when Bitcoin chopped sideways for seven months before its next major rally. They break down Mike’s 90% early-bull conviction, the critical 50-week moving average, and why BTC could remain range-bound between $80K and $95K. Plus, the altcoin reset, whether Robinhood Chain could become this cycle’s Solana, and the macro risks shaping what comes next.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:13 Early Bull Reset
2:42 2023 Market Echo
6:59 Bitcoin At The 50-Week
16:57 Altcoins Versus Bitcoin
26:38 Robinhood Chain Speculation
32:09 CPI And Yields Jump
37:37 Debasement And Policy
40:51 Reset Opportunities In Alts
44:04 Closing The Loop
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin Leads the Next Move…$78K or $90K?
Bitcoin is entering a critical decision point. Mike and Ryan break down why a pullback toward $78K could still be healthy, what a move through $90K could unlock, and why Bitcoin’s next move may set the tone for …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is entering a critical decision point. Mike and Ryan break down why a pullback toward $78K could still be healthy, what a move through $90K could unlock, and why Bitcoin’s next move may set the tone for the broader market. They also cover improving macro conditions, stock-market strength, and how to manage risk in the early bull.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:12 Bitcoin’s Next Move
3:56 Zooming Out on Crypto
7:48 The Summer Rebound
11:58 Bitcoin Leads the Cycle
16:41 Profit-Taking Pressure
18:43 Stablecoins and Liquidity
23:19 Macro Shifts and Jobs
26:21 Market Damage Beneath
33:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels
38:00 Breaking 90K Resistance
40:28 Holding Through the Bull
46:28 Investor Journal Close----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Macro Concerns? Crypto’s Bull Case vs. Rising Rates
Crypto is acting like a bull market even as macro risks keep building. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin and altcoins are shrugging off rising yields, rate-hike fears, and oil volatility, what the market …
Notes de l’épisode
Crypto is acting like a bull market even as macro risks keep building. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin and altcoins are shrugging off rising yields, rate-hike fears, and oil volatility, what the market reset is signaling, and why Mike still believes crypto is early in a new cycle. They also cover the risks that could finally challenge that view.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:24 Macro Second Look
4:01 Crypto Outperforms Macro
6:26 Market Structure Reset
10:12 Macro Risk Tour
20:53 Liquidity and Volatility
24:53 Bull Case Holds
29:23 Stocks and AI Breadth
32:15 Bull Market Price Targets
38:04 New Referral Program----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Is the "Early Bull" Actually Confirmed?
Mike is finally ready to call it: Bitcoin has likely entered the early-bull phase. Mike and Ryan break down the Golden Cross, the reclaim of the 50-week moving average, the market-structure reset, and why …
Notes de l’épisode
Mike is finally ready to call it: Bitcoin has likely entered the early-bull phase. Mike and Ryan break down the Golden Cross, the reclaim of the 50-week moving average, the market-structure reset, and why seller exhaustion has pushed Mike’s confidence to 85%. They also cover fading macro fears, Saylor’s return as a buyer, and the key levels that could confirm or challenge the new cycle.
----
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:14 Early Bull Emerges
4:24 Coin Rotation Strengthens
10:14 Golden Cross Confirmed
12:56 Bull Case Checklist
17:09 Buyers Reappear
22:52 Macro Noise Fades
30:58 Ben Concedes Bull
34:08 Key Levels Ahead
38:12 Riding Winners Higher
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Guide to Navigating the Next Crypto Bull Run
Bitcoin may be entering the first inning of a new bull market, and TDR thinks this cycle could be bigger than the last. Mike and Ryan break down the signals that would confirm the shift, the four stages of a …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin may be entering the first inning of a new bull market, and TDR thinks this cycle could be bigger than the last. Mike and Ryan break down the signals that would confirm the shift, the four stages of a crypto cycle, and how they plan to position through each phase. They also cover the sectors showing early strength, why onchain activity matters, and what could drive the next major wave of crypto adoption.
----
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:10 Guide to the Coming Bull Market
3:12 TDR Portfolio Up 95%
6:27 The Four Crypto Cycle Stages
12:54 Early Bull Signals
17:19 How to Play the Early Bull
21:43 The Wealth Creation Phase
30:03 When to Start Going Risk-Off
35:09 Why This Bull Market Could Be Bigger
40:54 Fast DeFi & Social Trading
47:01 Onchain Perps & Lighter
52:00 How to Think Like an Investor
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Onchain Activity is Heating Up…What Comes Next?
Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. Mike and Ryan break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. Mike and Ryan break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares with early 2023. They also dive into PUMP vs. PONS, Robinhood Chain’s breakout, mobile-first crypto trading, and whether this new wave of risk-taking is just getting started.
----
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:12 Bull Market Setup
3:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels
9:20 Golden Cross Explained
13:33 Alt Season or Not
19:36 2023 Speculation Replay
24:09 PONS and Robinhood Surge
36:20 ETH’s Role in the Rally
39:55 Macro Risks Ahead
43:49 Portfolio Risk Management----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Bitcoin’s Early Bull? The $69.4K Test
Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. Mike and Ryan break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. Mike and Ryan break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K is the key level to watch, and how the Treasury “put” is reshaping the macro backdrop. They also cover Saylor’s return to buying, rising onchain speculation, and whether investors are still early to the next cycle.
----
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
0:18 Bull or September?
3:17 Speed-Running the Cycle Low
17:52 Mixed Signals, Early Bull
26:54 Debasement Trade and Macro
38:50 September Cooldown Ahead
43:19 Mindset and Missed Gains----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.The Case for a New Crypto Bull Market
Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and how Treasury intervention in long-term yields changed the macro setup. They also cover Strategy’s $1.6B Bitcoin war chest, the return of crypto animal spirits, and the key $81.8K level that could confirm the next bull market.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:14 Regime Shift Begins
2:11 Bullish Catalyst Emerges
6:59 Reading Bitcoin Market Structure
12:20 Capitulation Metrics and Volume
17:01 Crypto Reflexivity Returns
19:58 Treasury Buybacks and Yields
28:56 The 1940s Playbook
35:02 Debasement Trade Reassessment
39:41 Key Bitcoin Levels
42:09 Portfolio Goes Risk On
45:29 Early Bull, Still Active
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle?
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Notes de l’épisode
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AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. Mike and Ryan unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:13 AI Trade Setup
3:12 On-Chain Milestone
6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall
10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift
14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine
25:24 AI Bull vs Bear
30:21 Real Yields Surge
36:03 Bear Market Outlook
39:04 The Next Fat Pitch
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test
Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup
3:33 On-Chain Cohorts & Capitulation
10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling
13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold
17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher
26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence
32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead
38:20 Pump Thesis & Cycle Upside
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Is This Rally a Trap?
The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions …
Notes de l’épisode
The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest BTC sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin
2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained
6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check
13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress
16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift
22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ
26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run
34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes?
The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be …
Notes de l’épisode
The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead
2:36 Market Signals Tighten
6:37 Fed Independence Questioned
11:10 Economy Under Pressure
16:32 Housing Fault Lines
21:14 Dollar Strength Warning
24:17 After the Sell-Off
28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook
31:00 Portfolio Patience
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming?
Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation
8:10 Time-Based Selloff
13:07 Searching for Demand
16:13 Miners Under Pressure
18:45 Strategy and Saylor
21:25 Iran and Oil Risk
28:28 AI Speculation Peaks
34:06 Macro or On-Chain?
37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch
41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio
Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and …
Notes de l’épisode
Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE----
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well
10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha
13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market
17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run
23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility
31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors
36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI
42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates
46:33 Final Grade for the Year
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Is the Bitcoin Low Really In?
Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play.----📣GALAXY | …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE----
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not?
5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto
6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower
12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate
19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check
23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash
34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush?
Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate
4:57 Key Cycle Indicators
8:39 Rotation Still Missing
14:50 Macro Risks Ahead
27:02 Patience And Returns
30:24 Price Levels To Watch
35:11 Drawdown And Outlook
36:48 More Reports Coming
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle?
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base
15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium
20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow
23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles
26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage
32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks
34:29 Miner Capitulation
37:12 Why Four Years?
40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin’s Bottom Case, ETF Outflows & The No-Buyers Problem
Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles
5:03 Shallower Drawdowns?
7:22 ETF Flows and Demand
9:34 Saylor’s Canary
15:32 Realized Losses Review
23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq
25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto
28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation
33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split
38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum
40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?"
Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about …
Notes de l’épisode
Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited
5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals
11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind
18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin?
22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion
25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq
26:33 AI Boom Or Bust
35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation
43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy
48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Bitcoin’s $60K Test Just Got More Serious
Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake market confidence, why ETF outflows are piling up, and why assets like Zcash, HYPE, Lighter, and NEAR are breaking out while Bitcoin weakens.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:22 Crypto Cycle Turning
4:42 Bitcoin Near Key Support
9:16 STRC Signals Stress
20:42 ETF Outflows Mount
23:58 Robinhood & Portfolio Bets
28:49 DeFi Builders Gain Ground
31:54 Bullish on Crypto Alpha
35:24 Meme Coins Still Stick
35:46 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin’s Unfinished Pain & Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?
Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why ETF outflows and Saylor’s bond move matter, and the macro risks that could force another leg lower.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
3:46 Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?
13:06 Measuring Bitcoin Bear Market Pain
22:50 ETF Outflows & Whale Selling
29:25 Iran, Inflation, & Macro Risks
37:35 Bitcoin Levels and Summer Positioning
42:55 Closing & Disclaimers----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.Signs of a Cycle Bottom?
Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer cohorts are still signaling, and how inflation, rising yields, and a potential Fed hike could force one more drop.
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The Watch List: Zcash (ZEC)
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-zcash-zec
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
4:16 Realized Cap Signals
12:17 Supply Profit Check
14:11 RSI & Cycle Lows
18:01 Coins Still Need Rotation
20:51 Inflation & Yields
31:00 Key Levels & Scenarios
34:17 Altcoin Rotation Watch
36:52 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising
Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:45 Bear Market Symmetry
6:00 Comparing Past Cycles
14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K?
19:23 Weak Market Conditions
23:10 Momentum Starts Fading
27:37 June’s Historical Weakness
29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels
32:40 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Are we still in a bear market rally?
Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence
5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning
10:04 Spot Market Analysis
15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand
19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis
21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ
26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin
30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook
33:17 The Marshmallow Test
34:17 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time
Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes next. They also break down the key level that decides the market, and how to position if this rally is on borrowed time.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:57 Bitcoin Market Dynamics
6:51 Short-Term Holder Insights
15:22 Fed Policy Implications
19:31 Liquidity and Economic Outlook
27:44 Crypto Portfolio Strategy
30:09 Navigating Altcoin Markets
38:47 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
Why This Rally May Be Too Early
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles …
Notes de l’épisode
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend.
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TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro
1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins
5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data
8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts
10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns
14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles
18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis
26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion
32:07 Closing & Disclaimers----
Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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