Budget week is here. Simple narratives versus complex reality. And some method acting.

• In this episode, Jim breaks down the Irish Department of Finance white paper and says the public finances still look strong, with a forecast general government surplus of 6.9 billion euro this year and 13.5 billion euro in 2027.
• The conversation focuses on corporation tax, which is forecast at 34.1 billion euro this year and 39 billion euro next year, but below an earlier projection of 35.3 billion euro.
• Jim stresses that October and November are still crucial months for corporation tax, so the apparent undershoot may not tell the full story yet.
• Chris raises the warning - yet again - that Ireland’s corporation tax base is becoming dangerously concentrated, with a small number of multinational companies accounting for a huge share of receipts.
• Jim notes that income tax, corporation tax, and VAT make up 89.9% of total tax take, showing how much the budget depends on a very small number of revenue streams.
• The discussion turns to the government’s likely 8.5 billion euro budget package, and the political impossibility of satisfying workers, businesses, unions, students, welfare recipients, and public service groups at once.
• Chris argues for a long-term strategy of explaining fiscal reality to the public, especially the danger of using temporary tax revenues for permanent spending.
• Jim pushes back, saying political reality makes that kind of strategy hard to deliver, especially under pressure from industrial action, election incentives, and short-term budget politics.
• We move to housing, using Spain’s snap election and housing protests to show that housing affordability is a global issue, not a uniquely Irish or British one.
• The episode includes a broader reflection on how people and politicians handle complexity, whether on immigration, Israel-Palestine, or fiscal policy, and how often narratives overpower data.
• And extra holes in belts.

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