Can CXMT and Kimi K3 Break the Memory Supercycle?

Memory chips have been the standout trade of the AI boom, but July brought a sharp reality check. Global semiconductor stocks whipsawed as investors began questioning the return on hundreds of billions in data-center spending. Market jitters deepened after Chinese startup Moonshot released its open-source Kimi K3 model at a fraction of the cost of US frontier AI architectures. Compounding these concerns is the rise of CXMT, China’s leading DRAM supplier, whose stock surged fivefold following a blockbuster IPO – raising fears of aggressive capacity expansion that could disrupt incumbents such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.

Jake Silverman, semiconductor analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. He unpacks why fundamental support for the memory sector remains solid, how high-bandwidth memory (HBM) creates a structural cap on standard DRAM supply, and why multi-year strategic supply contracts and extended fab construction lead times insulate incumbents from an immediate market collapse.

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