Challenging market consensus

Markets can become crowded around consensus views. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Brian Kuritzky from our Rates Sales team to explore potential investor complacency, from expectations for the Fed to the way political risk is being priced.​

The conversation focuses on three ideas Kuritzky believes deserve more attention: the risks around energy and inflation expectations, the great wealth transfer and its potential impact on US economic resilience, and the headwinds facing the AI CapEx cycle including the domestic political pushback against data centre expansion.​

They also discuss why a more resilient US consumer could make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates, why dips in rates may create investment opportunities, and why market volatility may not be fully reflecting the uncertainty around policy, election and cross-asset risks.​

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​

• AI adoption and productivity: Early evidence​

Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:​

• Episode 39: Opportunities in Asian Equities​
• Episode 35: US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?​

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