US National Defense Strategy, deterrence by denial and the limits of alliance dependency

In this episode of the Contested Ground podcast, Steve Kuper and Major General (Ret'd) Dr Marcus Thompson are joined by Dr Malcolm Davis, Australian Strategic Policy Institute defence strategy and capability senior analyst, to unpack the strategic shockwaves emerging from the United States' 2026 National Defense Strategy.

The trio examine what Washington's shift towards an offshore balancing posture means for Australia, including renewed pressure to lift defence spending, the implications of deterrence by denial along the first island chain, and the risks of assuming unconditional US support in a rapidly deteriorating Indo-Pacific security environment.

They also explore the growing assertiveness of China, the fine line between stabilisation and accommodation, and whether Australia is approaching a modern-day version of World War II's "1939 tipping point moment" that demands greater self-reliance, expanded defence industrial capacity, and difficult conversations with the Australian public.

Finally, the discussion turns to force structure, autonomous systems, guided weapons, and the hard choices facing government as Australia seeks to balance immediate readiness, AUKUS, and long-term strategic resilience in an era of uncertainty.

Enjoy the podcast, The Contested Ground team