Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is Unacceptable — World-Class Coder Casey Muratori

Casey Muratori is one of the top programming educators on YouTube, with a four-decade career building videogames and popular videogame software.

We cover his positions on crypto, programming, AI’s impact on programming, and whether he takes the AI doom threat seriously.

Casey’s instinct is to break technology down like an engineer until he knows exactly how it’ll operate. Does that approach break down in the modern AI paradigm?

This is a ride on the Doom Train™ that lands on a wholly unexpected destination.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:31 — Introducing Casey Muratori

00:02:07 — Recap of Crypto Series: Is Crypto Dead?

00:11:46 — On Programming & Why Coding Agents Don't Faze Casey

00:18:51 — Coding Is a Craft: Drum Machine Example

00:36:24 — Pivoting to AI: Can We Forecast Its Capabilities?

00:43:36 — Debating if AI Can Acquire Taste

00:54:59 — What's Your P(Doom)™?

01:04:11 — Even 0.1% X-Risk Is Unacceptable

01:07:34 — Modeling Uncertainty: Bayesianism vs "Tie Goes to the Catastrophe"

01:09:34 — Is This Pascal's Wager?

01:17:12 — Casey's (Cynical) Mainline Scenario

01:24:22 — Would You Un-Invent the Internet?

01:27:18 — Let's Ride the Doom Train 🚂

01:27:51 — Can AI Become Ridiculously Powerful?

01:29:11 — Will AI Preserve Humanity (Orthogonality Thesis)?

01:32:26 — Will AI Seek Power (Instrumental Convergence)?

01:36:06 — Wrap-Up

Links

Casey’s podcast, Wading Through AI (with Demetri Spanos) — https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEMXAbCVnmY6U_pA-7GKuP9xiv9utLaP4

Casey’s YouTube channel, Molly Rocket — https://www.youtube.com/@MollyRocket

@cmuratori (Casey Muratori) on X — https://x.com/cmuratori

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