The Serfs Will Have Drones

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL

(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore

(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth

(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown

(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production

(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology

(13:39) - Can States Control AI

(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp

(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law

(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics

(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response

(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism

(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric

(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles

(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure

(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI

(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access

(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework

(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium

(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence

(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East

(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer

(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation

(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve

(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism

(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate

(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South

(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China

(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness

(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier

(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics

(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro