Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
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Über den Podcast
In-depth conversations on the conflicts and rivalries shaping our world, explored in the detail the subject deserves. Dmitri Alperovitch speaks with the military commanders, intelligence officials, diplomats, historians, and strategists who shape events and study them closely — on the war in Ukraine, strategic competition with China and the future of Taiwan, nuclear deterrence, sanctions and semiconductors, and the changing character of warfare. Throughout, the aim is to understand not merely what has happened, but why — and what is likely to follow.
Geopolitics Decanted is hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch — chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator in Washington, D.C., national bestselling author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century, and co-founder of CrowdStrike.
Folgen 81
The Miracle Is Over: Inside China's Slow-Motion Economic Decay
China's boom ran on the largest credit expansion ever recorded — roughly a third of global GDP in eight years. Rhodium Group's Logan Wright, who spent fourteen years tracking the financial plumbing from Beijing …
Shownotes
China's boom ran on the largest credit expansion ever recorded — roughly a third of global GDP in eight years. Rhodium Group's Logan Wright, who spent fourteen years tracking the financial plumbing from Beijing and Hong Kong, argues that engine has been shutting down since 2018 and the economy behind the headline numbers is growing at 1.5–2%, not 5%. China peaked at 18.5% of global GDP in 2021 and has been sliding ever since. The US has quietly outgrown it every year since.
Wright and host Dmitri Alperovitch talk through why PPP flatters an economy suffering from deflation, why $52 trillion of RMB penned behind capital controls makes outflows inevitable, and why the widely-cited pivot from property to EVs, batteries and AI doesn't survive contact with the data. Rhodium tracks industrial land sales and local-government revenue bonds: strategic industries went from 2% to 6% of issuance while the share of loans priced at or below the prime rate climbed to 59%. The story of China's credit of the last decade: not reallocation to productive industries but forbearance.
What emerges is a picture with no Lehman moment and no bank runs. Just deflation, a 9.5%-of-GDP deficit buying less each year, export competitiveness that comes from weak domestic demand rather than strength, and a decade that looks uncomfortably like Japan's.
00:00 Introduction
01:16 China's economic decline
03:25 How the US has outgrown China for five years
06:11 Why China's PPP lead doesn't matter
12:41 Beijing's fear of capital outflows
16:39 What could trigger a financial crisis
17:14 Credit is flowing to the least productive sectors
19:31 Throwing good money after bad
26:59 China's dependence on Europe
34:19 Can China boost domestic demand?
38:58 The Chinese economy in 2035
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How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide
Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is …
Shownotes
Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026.
In this episode:
How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all.
A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base.
How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two.
00:00 Introduction
00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game
07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe
09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game
13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia?
15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise?
17:10 How to Defend the Baltics
24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles
27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition?
29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma
35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk?
40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026
48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare?
49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority
How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.) …
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Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy.
00:00 Introduction
01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz
03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait
05:19 Cruise Missile Threat
11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem
19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf
26:43 Kharg Island
31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf?
36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem
What Happens if the Supreme Court Kills Trump’s Tariffs?
Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes …
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Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them. 00:00 Introduction 02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place 12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds 14:33 Alternative Tariff Options 22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs 31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs 38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA TariffsKapitel
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Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.
00:00 Introduction
01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting
08:43 The Rare Earths Truce
11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal
12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments
16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year
17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World
18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal
20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export
Keeping Russian Economy Afloat: Kremlin's Economic High Wire Act
Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going. 00:00 Introduction …
Shownotes
Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.
00:00 Introduction
01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy
10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending
19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions
30:10 Economic Headwinds
32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries
Why Drones Can’t Replace Traditional Firepower
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats.
00:00 Introduction
00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones
09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types
15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense
26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems?
28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare
29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery?
31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems?
34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses
36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses
38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics
44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s
NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones
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Why America's Nuclear Deterrence Strategy Needs to Change
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Israel-Iran War
11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats
13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight a Nuclear War?
18:04 Debating Counterforce vs. Countervalue Nuclear Targeting Strategies
24:32 Is Nuclear Extended Deterrence Believable to Allies?
40:02 Is Pakistan Building ICBMs to Target the United States?
42:44 Does America Need Mobile ICBM Launchers?
How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-new-nuclear-age-narang-vaddi
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Assessing the Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program
07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution?
09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow?
11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue
12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility?
13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War?
16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists
18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles
20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs
22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment?
24:45 Was The War Worth It?
32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?
The Israel-Iran War: Possibilities and the Dangers of Overreach
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran.
00:00 Introduction
01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran
07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility
08:16 Shocking Success
11:20 Danger of Euphoria
14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies?
15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz
18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions
20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change
23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East
Why North Korea Is Planning a Second Korean War and How to Stop It
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats …
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Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?
15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?
18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use
22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea
27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia
29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia
35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship
40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?
44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs
47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea
51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea
54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers
01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea
01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?
Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html
The One Factor That Could Crash the Russian Economy
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sanctions have been the most impactful, and the one thing that could potentially trigger a crash and give Ukraine leverage to negotiate an acceptable peace dealPutin’s Nuclear Meltdown
Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.
They discuss:
- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration
- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects
- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory
- Putin's real redlines
- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine
- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM
- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup
- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence
Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886
Inside the Drone War Arms Race in Ukraine
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine. They discuss: - How Ground Unmanned Vehicles …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine.
They discuss:
- How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle
- 3rd Generation FPV drones
- Quadcopter bombers
- Mass-market EW systems
- Fiber optics C2
- EW recon units
- Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare
- Impact of Chinese export controls
- Thermite 'Dracarys' drones
- Mothership drones
- Long-range deep strike drones
- Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones
- How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage!
- How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia's hands
- Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different
- Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems
Ukraine Invades Russia: What’s Next? Interview with Ukrainian Combat Vet
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with their August 6th offensive into Russian Kursk oblast, the achievable objectives of this operation and the risks that it brings.
They discussed the achievements to date, the potential for holding newly captured Russian territory and the challenges that the Ukrainian forces currently face there.
Constantine also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, LibertyUkraine.org, is providing vital and life saving combat support engineering equipment like excavators and generators to Ukrainian troops.
Ukraine Finally Has F-16s. What Now?
After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons …
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After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform?
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine."
They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems.
Music: Zaporizhian March
How China Might Invade Taiwan: A World on the Brink Scenario
Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook …
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Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the book that lays out in great detail how China is likely to go about its invasion of Taiwan.
In addition, Dmitri and Garrett discuss:
- Why they wrote this book
- What’s a stake in the potential conflict with China over Taiwan
- Dmitri’s battles against Chinese IP theft over the course of his career
- Why Taiwan matters to the United States
- Why America will not achieve chips independence from Taiwan for the foreseeable future
- Why Taiwan never fully belonged to China
- Timeline for potential invasion and why invasion is unlikely to take place in 2027
- Why we are in a Cold War II with China that is remarkably similar to Cold War I with the Soviet Union
- Strategy for victory in Cold War II
- How to deter an invasion of Taiwan
If you found this podcast interesting, please consider ordering the book from your favorite book stores or online at https://WorldOnTheBrink.com and writing a review!
New Secrets From the Cold War and Lessons for Cold War II With China
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives.
They discussed China's role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that caused the Korean War and Brezhnev's attempts to prevent Nixon's downfall in Watergate.
Sergey and Dmitri also discussed their upcoming books, which are both publishing in the next few weeks, on Cold War I history and the history and strategy of Cold War II with China, respectively. They talked about what lessons the first conflict may offer for the second, whether it is possible to revive the detente strategy of the 1970s, and how America can achieve victory.
Dmitri Alperovitch's book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" publishes on April 30th (https://WorldOntheBrink.com).
Sergey Radchenko's book "To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power" publishes on May 30th (https://www.amazon.com/Run-World-Kremlins-Global-Power/dp/1108477356/).
How the US Planned to Respond to Russia Using a Nuke in Ukraine
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation. They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was estimated to be at 50/50 and how the US planned to respond to that outcome. Bill and Dmitri also debated the proposal to limit the power of the President to launch a first nuclear strike and discussed the destabilizing implication of the recent news that Russia may be seeking to put a nuclear weapon into space.
Please check out Dmitri's book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" which comes out on April 30th. https://worldonthebrink.com
The Trinity Revolution in Warfare: Precision, Sensors and Comms
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolution, the challenge presented by electronic warfare and its logistical needs, whether unmanned systems are truly offering a radically new capability or are cheap replications of existing systems like torpedoes and cruise missiles, whether hypersonic missiles are worth the cost and the high manpower requirements of unmanned platforms and cyber weapons.
Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Why North Korea is Probably Not Planning a War
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.
They discuss whether the nearly $130 billion that the US is planning to spend to modernize its land-based nuclear arsenal is money well spent, whether the nuclear deterrent triad of land, submarine and bomber-based nuclear weapons still makes sense in this day and age, the cyber risk of the nuclear modernization program, why the US does not have any land-based mobile missile launchers, whether Chinese nuclear build up might actually perversely benefit the US, how Camp David Egypt-Israel Peace Accords caused more missile proliferation and whether we have a chance to slow down North Korean production of missiles it is supplying to Russia. Plus: Is nuclear nonproliferation dead? And much more!
Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Why China Can’t Blockade Taiwan
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They discuss the implications of the recent Taiwan elections on the island's military readiness and the future of US-Taiwan relations, the challenges Taiwan faces in reforming its defense force and strategy, why an invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most difficult military operations ever conducted in the history of warfare, the evolving Taiwanese national identity and why the Taiwanese have little interest in unification with mainland China. Plus, why the world's dependence on Taiwan's semiconductors is unlikely to go away in the foreseeable future.
If you are interested in this topic, please preorder Dmitri's upcoming book that dives in great detail into these and many related issues: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2 Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJFkCK_Ex2U
Battle of Wills: Ukraine’s Path to Victory
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, about his new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War …
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, about his new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence." They discussed why the Russians lost any chance of capturing Kyiv in the first day of the war by failing to take Hostomel airport, why Ukrainian war preparations were quite uneven (stronger in the north than in the south), why the peace talks never had a chance, the strategic problem with the design of last year's counteroffensive and what the path to Ukrainian victory could look like.
Please check out Yaroslav's book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/B0CFYPX267/
And Dmitri's upcoming book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2 Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzsruxnYwRQ
The Drone Wars: How Consumer Tech Is Shaping the Ukraine War
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV drones and countermeasures to them are changing the nature of warfare in Ukraine.
They discuss:
- Advantages and disadvantages of these new platforms
- The development of new tactics and force structures employing them
- The challenge Ukraine is having with developing and procuring munitions for drones
- The cat-and-mouse battle in electronic warfare countermeasures used by both sides
- Whether FPVs provide an advantage to defense or offense
- The implications of drones on counterbattery and naval warfare
- How Ukraine has emerged as a testing ground for these new technologies and the vital need for Western militaries to better absorb lessons learned from this conflict
- How drones are becoming the cheap 'generic', albeit lesser capable, alternatives to expensive 'brand-name' weapon systems such as missiles, torpedoes, ISR platforms, etc.
Andrey also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, UkraineDefenseFund.org, is helping train new Ukrainian FPV operators at the total cost of just $500 in 3 weeks.
All Things AI: An Interview With White House AI Guru Ben Buchanan
Dmitri Alperovitch comes to the White House to interview Dr. Ben Buchanan, the White House Special Advisor on AI, about: - The risks and benefits of AI - What the US government is trying to achieve with the …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch comes to the White House to interview Dr. Ben Buchanan, the White House Special Advisor on AI, about:
- The risks and benefits of AI
- What the US government is trying to achieve with the President's Executive Order on AI
- Why Terminator AIs are not coming to kill us but evil people using AI just might
- What the requirements to report to US government about the development of cutting-edge foundational models is all about
- How the US can maintain its lead in this technology
- White House's thinking on open source AI models
- US government's international AI strategy
- The plan for how to use AI inside US government
- The purpose and mission of the new AI Safety Review Board
- And why US government is concerned about China's use of AI
- And much more
Ben Buchanan's last book on AI (The New Fire: War, Peace, and Democracy in the Age of AI): https://www.amazon.com/New-Fire-War-Peace-Democracy/dp/0262046547
His previous book on cybersecurity (The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics): https://www.amazon.com/Hacker-State-Attacks-Normal-Geopolitics/dp/0674987551
Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Why Chinese Economy Is Heading For Stagnation, Not Collapse
Dmitri Alperovitch and guest co-host Patrick Gray interview Alicia García-Herrero, a Spanish-born economist based in the indo-Pacific and who specializes on China. They discussed why China has exhausted its …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch and guest co-host Patrick Gray interview Alicia García-Herrero, a Spanish-born economist based in the indo-Pacific and who specializes on China.
They discussed why China has exhausted its growth potential and is now facing structured deceleration, which will be a major global deflationary trend.
Other topics covered: why the real-estate bubble will likely not cause a dire crisis, why stimulus spending will not solve China's fundamental problems, why China has not yet experienced the full impact of its demographics collapse, why their economic productivity is not improving and the impact of their economy on the future of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Why Quantum Computing May be Overhyped but AI isn’t: Interview with the NSA
Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at the National Security Agency (NSA) and a member of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee. They discussed the current …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at the National Security Agency (NSA) and a member of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee.
They discussed the current state of quantum computing, why its current applications outside of breaking certain types of public key cryptography are highly limited, why we may not see a useful quantum computer for many years and why AI will deliver faster and more revolutionary progress to our daily lives than quantum computers. They also dived into the present challenges of the AI technology and why we need to develop a theoretical basis for addressing errors and hallucinations in AI models.
If you are interested in understanding quantum computing, quantum sensing and quantum communication and the real-world applications of these technologies, this is the episode you do not want to miss!
Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
How Ukraine Can Benefit From ATACMS Missiles
ATACMS episode: - What variants of the missile exist - What unique advantages they offer over already provided Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs from UK and France - How many missiles may exist in the US inventory and …
Shownotes
ATACMS episode:
- What variants of the missile exist
- What unique advantages they offer over already provided Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs from UK and France
- How many missiles may exist in the US inventory and why some can be provided to Ukraine without jeopardizing US military readiness
- Why the German Taurus missile is also a much needed munition for Ukraine
- The state of production of the next-generation Precision Strike Missile and its advantages over ATACMS
- How ATACMS usage in Ukraine might enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Colby Badhwar, a Canadian security analyst, who has written an extensive X thread on ATACMS, to discuss these topics
Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Colby's ATACMS thread: https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1703757651623162271
Starlink in Ukraine: Why the Story Is Not So Simple
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Patrick Gray, host of Risky Business podcast, about why the Starlink-Elon saga is much more complicated than it might seem at first glance. Blaming Elon for his Crimea action is …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Patrick Gray, host of Risky Business podcast, about why the Starlink-Elon saga is much more complicated than it might seem at first glance. Blaming Elon for his Crimea action is probably unfair, but he does deserve both praise and criticism for his contributions to Ukrainian battlefield successes and challenges. And so does the Department of Defense for taking too long to come up with an appropriate solution, which they thankfully ultimately did
Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2
Why 702 is America’s most valuable intelligence program: Interview with the FBI
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, to discuss why FISA Section 702 is by far the most valuable intelligence program in the US government's arsenal and …
Shownotes
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, to discuss why FISA Section 702 is by far the most valuable intelligence program in the US government's arsenal and is responsible for the majority of the most valuable intelligence the country collects.
In this episode, Vorndran provides some examples of 702 successes including disrupting attempted assassination plots of American officials by a foreign country and identifying the perpetrator of the Colonial Pipeline hack and recovering the paid ransom. Vorndran also highlights compliance issues that the FBI has faced with the program and what it is doing to address them going forward.
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