In Moscow's Shadows 269: White Flags and Red Banners

This week's conversation between Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre and Vladimir Putin certainly ruffled some feathers. Setting aside the did-he-didn't-he fluff about whether Putin delivered another of his historical lectures (anonymous sources say so, but I'm willing to believe the on-the-record denials from Stubb and Støre), it's a useful start (and no more than that) to European diplomacy with agency. Europe cannot outsource dialogue with Moscow to to the White House and then act surprised when it lacks leverage.

Meanwhile, it's looking at a rare piece of good news from a ghastly conflict: the temporary Oleshki ceasefire and humanitarian mission. Even a small ceasefire, properly observed by both Russia and Ukraine, matters. It shows what can be achieved through unexpected intermediaries and professional coordination, and why dismissing every contact as “just propaganda” risks missing the building blocks that any future settlement will require.

(PS: originally, I managed to get Kharkiv and Kherson mixed up! Has been edited to correct)

After the break, I shift to Russian domestic politics and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation: election setbacks, protest voting, budget posturing, and the widening gap between a pro-Kremlin leadership and a more restless grassroots. I look at inequality arguments, the convenient “bad boyars” alibi, and the growing pressure on regional activists who take opposition too seriously.

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