Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist
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Über den Podcast
American Optimist, hosted by Joe Lonsdale: entrepreneur, investor, and founder of four multi-billion dollar companies and other mission-driven organizations. American Optimist is an alternative to the fear, cynicism, and zero-sum thinking in mainstream media. Learn from the innovators and leaders who are solving our nation’s most pressing challenges, and doing it in a way that will lift everyone up. Hope should dominate our discourse, and American Optimist will show you why.
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Ep 168: Sky Harbour CEO Tal Keinan on Why America Stopped Building Airports, the AI Wealth Wave & Private Jet Boom
In the 1930s and 40s, the United States built thousands of airports; today that number is virtually zero. What happened? Why is it nearly impossible to build major new airports or even find hangar space in …
Shownotes
In the 1930s and 40s, the United States built thousands of airports; today that number is virtually zero. What happened? Why is it nearly impossible to build major new airports or even find hangar space in large cities? And how will the coming AI wealth creation exacerbate the supply and demand imbalance? Tal Keinan, founder and CEO of Sky Harbour Group, is addressing these challenges in the private aviation industry.
Born in Miami, Tal moved to Israel after college and was drafted into the military where he served as an F-16 pilot in the Israeli Air Force. In 2004, he founded Clarity Capital, and played an instrumental role in the growth of Israel’s tech ecosystem. He’s also the author of “God Is in the Crowd: Twenty-First Century Judaism.” In 2015, he purchased his own airplane in New York and quickly realized there was nowhere to park it. His experience led to the creation of Sky Harbour Group.
We begin with Tal’s path from fighter pilot to investor and his role in Israel’s economic miracle. Next, we dive into the history of America’s airports — thousands built in the 1930s and 1940s as New Deal jobs programs and World War II pilot training. Yet, America hasn’t built a new major airport in decades. Tal explains why general aviation airports struggle to turn a profit, why the FBO duopoly has no incentive to build more hangars, and how Sky Harbour pioneered the home-based operator model. Next, we explore how Tal uses AI throughout his business, particularly to pinpoint new hangar locations, and how the coming wave of AI-driven wealth will create even greater demand for private aviation. Finally, Tal shares his reasons for optimism and why he believes America, despite its challenges, always finds a way to course correct.
(00:00) Episode intro
(01:45) Eighteen years as an F-16 pilot
(04:00) Clarity Capital and Israel's tech explosion
(08:16) “Nowhere to park it” / Why did America stop building airports?
(10:40) Why general aviation airports don't make money
(13:15) The FBO duopoly & why they love NetJets
(16:05) How Tal created the home-based operator model
(19:10) How the Sky Harbour business model works
(24:50) How Tal uses AI to scout customers and locations
(27:09) AI wealth wave & private aviation boom
Important Information: American Optimist is Joe’s personal podcast. This episode reflects the personal views of Joe and his guest, and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Joe is a principal of Eight Partners VC, LLC (“8VC”), and 8VC-managed funds currently hold shares of Sky Harbour Group Corporation (NYSE: SKYH) and may buy or sell those shares at any time without notice. 8VC-managed funds may also hold interests in other companies mentioned in this episode. Statements about future events, including industry trends and Sky Harbour’s plans, are forward-looking and may not occur.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 167: The Company That Evaluates the AI Labs — Vals AI CEO Rayan Krishnan on Measuring Frontier Models & the Race to Recursive Self-Improvement
Rayan Krishnan is the co-founder and CEO of Vals AI, a leader in the independent evaluation of frontier AI models. What is the science behind model evaluation? What role should independent evaluators play as we …
Shownotes
Rayan Krishnan is the co-founder and CEO of Vals AI, a leader in the independent evaluation of frontier AI models. What is the science behind model evaluation? What role should independent evaluators play as we debate AI oversight? How soon will models reach recursive self-improvement — and what happens next?
We’re joined by Rayan and 8VC Partner Vivek Gopalan for this timely conversation about AI progress and the frameworks for evaluating performance and risk. After interning at Microsoft in high school, Rayan studied computer science at Stanford. He went on to join Palantir, where he developed a feature the company later patented and productized, before launching Vals AI in 2023.
We begin with Rayan’s path to Palantir, key lessons from Alex Karp, and the origins of Vals. Next, we dive into how his team used Anthropic’s Fable to crack a 370-year-old cipher and whether AI is really making new discoveries and breakthroughs. Next, Rayan explains what model evaluation is, how to design new hills for models to climb, and why labs shouldn’t grade their own homework. Then, we cover recursive self-improvement and what happens once models begin creating their own successors. Rayan believes Anthropic will reach RSI by mid-2027 and talks about what might happen next. Finally, he addresses how models try to deceive evaluators, and why, despite serious challenges, he remains an optimist when it comes to AI.
(0:00) Episode intro
(2:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp
(7:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?
(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?
(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?
(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation
(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation
(26:45) Who will reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? Should we be worried?
(28:30) How models try to deceive evaluators
(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 166: Eric Glyman on Ramp's Meteoric Growth, Selling Outcomes vs Products, and the Future of White-Collar Work
Eric Glyman is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, the finance platform doing over two billion in annual revenue and growing over 100 percent year per year. How did a company built on the promise of helping …
Shownotes
Eric Glyman is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, the finance platform doing over two billion in annual revenue and growing over 100 percent year per year. How did a company built on the promise of helping customers spend less become one of the fastest-growing AI businesses? What’s Eric’s unique approach to managing small teams of exceptional talent? And what does Ramp’s view into corporate spend reveal about AI adoption and where the economy is headed?
Before Ramp, Eric and co-founder Karim Atiyeh built Paribus, a “prehistoric AI agent” that scanned inboxes and secured price-drop refunds on customers’ behalf. Capital One acquired it a year after launch, and the two spent their time inside the bank studying how misaligned incentives shape what financial institutions actually do. In 2020, they launched Ramp and quickly became the fastest-growing corporate card and expense management platform.
We begin our conversation with the origins of Ramp, specifically how learnings from Paribus and operating inside a big bank revealed new possibilities. Eric explains why Ramp is a “productivity company that happens to move money” and how its obsession with outcomes, rather than selling products, drives its meteoric growth. Next, Eric explains the small-team philosophy behind Ramp’s speed, and why he takes the unusual step of breaking up teams after they reach a certain size. Then, we get a look inside the U.S. economy via Ramp’s unique insights into corporate expenses. For example, Eric explains that AI inference spend has grown five-fold in the past few years but still only amounts to two percent of all white-collar wages. After seeing the surge in inference costs, Ramp launched Router, which dramatically reduces customer inference costs — an example of prioritizing outcomes and operating at a speed that competitors can’t match. Finally, we talk about the impact of AI on white-collar work, and what it would look like to apply Ramp’s transparency and cost savings to the federal government.
(00:00) Episode intro
(01:45) $2B in annual revenue; origins of Ramp
(05:20) "A productivity company that happens to move money"
(09:30) Could Ramp have been built before AI?
(11:15) Selling outcomes vs selling products
(15:10) Why Ramp beat Brex
(17:00) 3% of corporate cards, 97% to go
(20:00) AI spend is 2% of all white-collar wages
(22:45) How Router saves businesses 40% on AI spend
(24:00) Eric's small team philosophy and how to kill bureaucracy
(33:00) How Ramp maps the US economy
(39:10) Can Ramp modernize government spend? Audit the Pentagon?
(44:30) Future of work / optimism for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 165: OPM Director Scott Kupor on Shrinking Government, Bringing Merit Back, and Why America’s Best Minds Should Join the U.S. Tech Force
Scott Kupor is the Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and has achieved some of the most important reforms in DC in only a couple years. How has he reduced the size of the federal government for …
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Scott Kupor is the Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and has achieved some of the most important reforms in DC in only a couple years. How has he reduced the size of the federal government for the first time in generations? How is he bringing merit back to the civil service? And what is he doing to incentivize and make it easier for our best minds to serve in government?
Before joining the Trump administration, Scott was employee number one at Andreessen Horowitz. As Managing Partner, he helped build it into one of the world’s largest venture firms. He’s also the author of the bestselling “Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It.” In 2024, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, where he’s responsible for more than two million civil service employees and the policies governing their hiring, firing, and retention.
Recorded before a live audience at the University of Austin, we begin with Scott’s unlikely path to DC and the incentive problem at the root of government dysfunction. Learn how a consent decree over four decades ago killed entrance exams for federal jobs, and how Scott got it overturned — merit is coming back! He also explains how he executed the largest peacetime reduction in the federal workforce since 1930, while eliminating degree and experience requirements so we can get our top talent into government regardless of their background. Finally, Scott dives into the launch of the U.S. Tech Force and his effort to recruit an elite corps of software engineers to make government competent and functional again. He ends with his pitch to young Americans: if you want to take on some of the most complex problems that impact millions of your fellow citizens, there’s no better place than the U.S. government.
(00:00) Episode intro
(01:40) Why leave tech to be attacked in DC?
(06:27) Biggest federal workforce reduction in modern history
(08:45) How the left killed merit-based hiring
(14:40) How Scott is bringing merit back to DC
(15:50) Lessons from DOGE
(18:20) Hidden costs of outdated systems; billions wasted
(23:40) Building a U.S. Tech Force and hiring for skills
(26:20) Eliminating degree requirement to get the best talent
(27:16) Why should a young talented person serve in government?
(30:28) Optimism for DC; rejecting the blackpill
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 164: Inside Anthropic with Sholto Douglas & Nicholas Marwell — AGI, Optimism vs Risks, Regulatory Capture, Open Source & More!
Anthropic is one of the fastest-growing companies in history and sits at the forefront of the AI race. This week, we’re joined by two key leaders on Anthropic’s technical team — Sholto Douglas and Nicholas …
Shownotes
Anthropic is one of the fastest-growing companies in history and sits at the forefront of the AI race. This week, we’re joined by two key leaders on Anthropic’s technical team — Sholto Douglas and Nicholas Marwell — for an inside look at the AI frontier. Are we on the cusp of AGI — and what does that mean? What are they most excited about and most concerned about? And where does Anthropic stand on open source, as well as criticisms of its regulatory approach?
Sholto Douglas grew up in Sydney, Australia, where he studied robotics and taught himself Machine Learning research; he went on to work at DeepMind before becoming a tech lead in Reinforcement Learning (RL) at Anthropic. Nicholas Marwell, a San Francisco native, studied at Yale and joined Anthropic early in its journey to lead RL Science and now the Horizons team. We begin with the state of AI progress, and why Sholto and Nicholas believe AGI is likely within the next couple of years. We unpack their case for AI optimism, why biology is the most exciting next frontier, and whether a post-scarcity world is truly achievable. Then, they explain why the next decade “belongs to the generalists” and offer advice for young people entering the workforce in the coming years. Then we dig into the hard questions: offense vs. defense in cyber and bio, regulatory capture, open source, distillation, and competition with China. We also discuss the importance of virtue, faith, and institutions, and whether the leading AI researchers in Silicon Valley share the values of the heartland. Finally, they offer a few predictions for the years ahead and whether AI will soon win a Fields Medal or even a Nobel Prize.
NOTE: This conversation was recorded about a month ago, and delayed beyond our control, but it’s still timely.
00:00 Episode intro
02:00 Self-taught ML; Unlikely paths to Anthropic
04:13 What are the most exciting things you’re working on?
07:48 Have we reached AGI — and what comes next?
10:10 How to measure AI progress
14:05 Is biology the next great frontier?
16:30 Career advice & the decade of the generalists
19:10 What could go wrong? What are the biggest AI risks?
22:50 Offense vs defense; how technology evolves
24:50 Answering the regulatory capture critique
30:15 Anthropic’s stance on open source
31:30 Would you slow down and let China go ahead?
32:50 Anthropic’s view on distillation
39:50 Is a post-scarcity world achievable?
48:30 How do we preserve values, tradition & community?
54:45 Predictions for 2028
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 163: John Jovanovic on Turning Around the U.S. Export-Import Bank, Trump’s $12B Critical Mineral Reserve, and "Revenge of the Physical World"
John Jovanovic is the President and Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. After years of mismanagement, Ex-Im is now profitable and has become a key driver of American reindustrialization …
Shownotes
John Jovanovic is the President and Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. After years of mismanagement, Ex-Im is now profitable and has become a key driver of American reindustrialization. How did he turn the bank around? What's behind a new $12 billion critical mineral reserve to secure supply chains? And how is he seeing AI impact factory floors across America?The grandson of a Chicago steelworker, Jovanovic spent his career in energy, commodities, and supply chains — most recently as Chief Strategy Officer at Asplundh, the largest provider of critical infrastructure services across North America. He went on to serve in the first Trump administration at the Development Finance Corporation, where he opened the DFC's first overseas office to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Balkans. In the fall of 2025, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to lead the Export-Import Bank.We begin with Jovanovic's turnaround of Ex-Im: he lays out his key reforms and explains why he spent his first hundred days in the building instead of traveling the country. Next, we dive into Project Vault, the $12 billion public-private critical mineral reserve he announced alongside President Trump to shore up American supply chains. Then, we explore his thesis behind the "revenge of the physical world," why AI is a shot in the arm for reindustrialization, and what Jovanovic is seeing on factory floors across the country. Finally, we discuss the backlash against data centers and lay out the case for AI optimism and how to ensure all Americans benefit from this massive opportunity.
(00:00) Episode intro
(02:00) If you can’t manufacture, you can't innovate
(09:00) Grandson of a steelworker; John’s background
(11:18) Countering Chinese & Russian influence in the Balkans
(15:55) Senate confirmation & how to build bipartisan support
(21:45) How John made Ex-Im profitable again
(28:10) Securing supply chains: $12B critical mineral reserve
(35:40) Superhuman strength: AI & reindustrialization
(38:08) Addressing data center backlash & AI safety
(41:57) Optimism for DC & America’s future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 162: Brian Chau Built an AI That Uncovers Fraud — It Just Found a $21 Billion Racial Wealth Transfer
Brian Chau is an investigative journalist using AI to uncover widespread corruption and billions in fraud. He recently revealed how the Effective Altruism movement bought and planted AI doomer articles, and he …
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Brian Chau is an investigative journalist using AI to uncover widespread corruption and billions in fraud. He recently revealed how the Effective Altruism movement bought and planted AI doomer articles, and he exposed the firm behind the frontier lab hack that's fueling AI hysteria. Now he's breaking his newest story: a $21 billion racial wealth transfer in healthcare payments across 35 states. How is he using AI to uncover stories that no other journalist could find? Why does he believe that AI is ultimately on the side of liberty and transparency? And can AI-powered accountability rebuild trust in media?
We discuss these timely issues and more with Brian, founder of Effort News. At 15 years old, Brian was the youngest person in North America to win an IOI gold medal in competitive programming. He went on to study at Waterloo University before leading Alliance for the Future, an AI policy organization in DC. There he encountered the broken state of media firsthand and decided to build Effort News.
We begin with Brian’s path from competitive programming to the “dirty news business,” and how he saw a generational opportunity to save journalism by applying AI to uncover massive fraud and corruption. Next, we break his latest news: an investigation into Health Equity Incentives — a $21 billion discriminatory transfer of Medicaid and Medicare dollars away from White and Asian people to Black and Hispanic. Then, we discuss his recent investigation into the UK counterterrorism program that flagged the writings of Douglas Murray and George Orwell as terrorist threats, and how Effective Altruism NGOs are funding AI doomer articles. Despite the splintered, tribal nature of journalism today, Brian believes that provable, AI-verified reporting will become the standard and rebuild confidence in our key institutions.
00:00 Episode intro
01:40 Youngest American to win IOI gold
04:30 AI journalism; uncovering what legacy media can't
09:30 Is Effort News nonpartisan? Answering the critiques
11:25 Breaking news: $21 Billion Racial Wealth Transfer
17:30 Exposing the UK's counterterror incompetence
22:00 How Effective Altruism & AI doomers bought the media
24:00 Anthropic "whistleblower" connection to left-wing NGOs
28:50 How do you account for bias in your reporting?
34:30 How to build a media business in 2026
42:30 AI for liberty and accountability; optimistic vision for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 161: Generalist CEO Pete Florence on the Robot Revolution & Bringing General Intelligence to the Physical World
Until recently, robots were constrained to narrow, specific tasks. Think assembly lines, medical devices, or household vacuum cleaners. But now all that is changing. One robot trained by Generalist's foundation …
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Until recently, robots were constrained to narrow, specific tasks. Think assembly lines, medical devices, or household vacuum cleaners. But now all that is changing. One robot trained by Generalist's foundation model can do everything from folding clothes and washing dishes to sorting objects and repairing other robots. How are Pete Florence and the Generalist team bringing AI to the physical world? Why is intelligence, not hardware, the key unlock for robotics? And how could general-purpose robots unlock 10 times more scientific progress in the years ahead?Pete grew up in the Bay Area, earned his PhD at MIT, and became a star scientist at Google DeepMind. In 2023, he left to co-found Generalist, which builds robotics foundation models to help bring general intelligence to the physical world. Its latest model, GEN-1.5, can now train robots in a matter of seconds on simple tasks such as folding laundry and sorting objects. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Vivek Gopalan. We begin with Pete's entrepreneurial journey and his epiphany in grad school — walk into any robotics lab and the robots were standing still most hours of the day. Pete unpacks why robots, like humans, learn through data and experience, and why intelligence, not hardware, is the next frontier for robotics. At DeepMind he specialized in bringing multimodal learning (language models + vision models) into robotics, and he's now bringing that to the next level with robotic world models at Generalist. We dive into robotics' GPT-3 moment, the emergent capabilities Generalist is seeing — including self-taught ambidexterity — and the data moats that will shape the industry. Finally, we explore what a world of abundant robots means for science, reindustrialization, and American prosperity.
00:00 Episode intro
01:30 Bay Area to MIT and DeepMind
03:55 Pete's epiphany: robots sitting still
08:30 Why intelligence, not hardware, is the next frontier
13:20 The GPT-3 era of robotics
14:55 Why leave DeepMind?
16:50 How to train robot brains
18:30 Emergent ambidexterity
20:40 LLMs vs robot world models
23:50 GEN-0, GEN-1 & scaling laws in robotics
27:28 10x more science per year
32:50 Skilled trades, reindustrialization & future of robots
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 160: Box CEO Aaron Levie on Silicon Valley's AI Problem, Evidence for AI Job Creation & What Doomers and Accelerationists Get Wrong
Aaron Levie has spent two decades building Box into a cloud storage leader — and he's never been more excited for the future. What's next in the AI wave? Where is he already seeing evidence for new job …
Shownotes
Aaron Levie has spent two decades building Box into a cloud storage leader — and he's never been more excited for the future. What's next in the AI wave? Where is he already seeing evidence for new job creation? What do the doomers and accelerationists both get wrong? And why is Silicon Valley's biggest AI challenge self-inflicted?
We discuss these topics and more in this week's episode with Aaron. Originally a college project to access his files from anywhere, Aaron dropped out of USC in 2005 to build Box. He raised his first funding from Mark Cuban and pivoted to the enterprise. Today, Box is a multi-billion dollar company serving 120,000 global customers, and Aaron has become one of tech's leading voices on AI in the enterprise.
We begin our conversation with the state of model progress and the unprecedented speed of the AI era — companies going from zero to $500M in revenue in a year or two. We also discuss the Kimi K3 debate and China closing the gap on the U.S. in the AI race. Next, Aaron explains why diffusion, not intelligence, is the real rate limiter for AI adoption, and what the challenges will be at the enterprise level. Then we dive into the jobs debate: Aaron explains the 13 new types of jobs AI has created at Box, why law firms now need teams of engineers for their own custom AI models, and why mass job destruction means betting against markets themselves. Finally, we tackle Silicon Valley's self-inflicted AI crisis and why it may become the number one issue of the next presidential election.
(00:00) Episode intro
(01:15) AI wave / every two months is a year now
(06:30) China, Kimi K3 & open-source debate
(10:45) Diffusion is the real rate limiter
(15:50) Agent-first startups vs incumbents
(19:00) Nobody reads those contracts — AI’s new work
(23:35) Silicon Valley’s AI Problem / Larry David making AI models
(29:20) 13 new types of AI jobs at Box
(32:20) The origins of Box / dropping out of college
(37:00) Favorite angel investments right now
(40:20) Optimism for America’s future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 159: Aaron Cannon Is Building the Leading AI Customer Research Platform; It's About to Upend a $140B Industry
Aaron Cannon is applying AI to solve one of the oldest and most important challenges in business: understanding exactly what customers want and need. Traditional consumer surveys often provide low-quality data …
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Aaron Cannon is applying AI to solve one of the oldest and most important challenges in business: understanding exactly what customers want and need. Traditional consumer surveys often provide low-quality data, while one-on-one interviews are cost-prohibitive and not scalable. But AI unlocks profound new possibilities. How is Aaron using AI to conduct deep, insightful interactions at scale? What happens when organizations have always-on customer understanding? And what are the new opportunities for incorporating real-time feedback into product improvements?
Aaron Cannon is the co-founder and CEO of Outset, one of the fastest-growing, agent-led customer research platforms. Try it yourself here and help us improve American Optimist; we'll incorporate the top recommendations!
Prior, Aaron was the head of product at Untapped and Triplebyte and worked in senior product roles at Tesla, Pebble, and Monitor Deloitte. He launched Outset in 2022 after seeing an opportunity with large language models to fundamentally change how organizations learn from the people they serve. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Jack Moshkovich, who helped lead our investment in Outset.
We begin with Aaron’s path to founding Outset and the inefficiencies he saw in traditional customer research. Next, we explore how Outset’s AI-moderated interviews work in practice — from consumer studies to enterprise deployments at Microsoft, Google, and Uber. Learn how AI-led interviews can actually elicit more honest and in-depth responses than human-led conversations. Then, we dive into the explosive growth of the company — 8X revenue over the past year — and its “forward-deployed researchers" model. Finally, Aaron shares his vision for "self-driving research": AI that doesn’t just gather feedback but helps close the loop by identifying problems and even suggesting fixes — ultimately leading to improved products, experiences, and organizations.
00:00 Episode intro
01:10 Aaron’s entrepreneurial journey
06:00 How does AI-moderated research work?
09:25 Why people will talk to AI more than humans
13:40 How Outset landed Microsoft, Google & Uber
14:55 Are you replacing human jobs?
20:56 New possibilities for real-time product improvements
23:30 The pros and cons of synthetic research
28:00 Insane growth / how Outset 8X’d revenue
35:00 How AI is upending a $140B industry
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 158: Nima Ghamsari on Blend's Comeback & the Power of AI Agents and Infinite Workforce
Nima Ghamsari was a top talent at Palantir before founding Blend Labs to digitize the mortgage process. Blend became one of Silicon Valley’s hottest SaaS companies until the mortgage industry came to a …
Shownotes
Nima Ghamsari was a top talent at Palantir before founding Blend Labs to digitize the mortgage process. Blend became one of Silicon Valley’s hottest SaaS companies until the mortgage industry came to a screeching halt in recent years. Now, the AI wave has Blend poised for a comeback. What will the future of home buying look like? Why is Nima all-in on AI agents? And how can AI supercharge established tech companies with the will and talent to rethink things from scratch?
In this episode, we’re joined by the Founder and Head of Blend, Nima Ghamsari. We begin with his parents immigrating from Iran to the U.S. in the 1980s and how Nima made his way to Stanford. He quickly made a name for himself as a talented online poker player — winning millions of dollars and famously showing up to Palantir as a new hire in an Aston Martin. Learn about the lessons Nima brought with him from Palantir into building Blend, and how he took on the ambitious task of bringing the outdated, cumbersome mortgage process online. Next, we dive into Blend’s meteoric rise and fall as the U.S. mortgage industry hit the skids in recent years. Now, Nima believes AI has the company poised for a comeback. Learn about its AI agent, “Autopilot,” and why Blend has the most deployed agents in financial services right now. On this podcast, we talk a lot about new AI-first companies; Blend is a great example of a talented SaaS company embracing AI for a powerful Act II.
00:00 Episode intro
01:45 Millions playing poker to joining Palantir
06:00 Most important lessons from Palantir
07:30 Founding Blend / understanding the mortgage industry
11:25 How to win over banks and risk-averse customers
15:50 Blend’s meteoric rise and fall
19:00 Going all-in on AI agents / Blend’s Act II
22:55 Is Blend undervalued today?
26:50 Impact of AI on internal operations / increased productivity
32:00 The future of SaaS
36:20 The optimistic case for AI
Disclosure: Joe Lonsdale is a principal of Eight Partners VC, LLC (“8VC”), a registered investment adviser whose funds currently hold shares of Blend Labs, Inc. (“Blend”). Joe also has a longstanding personal relationship with Blend and its CEO, having served as an early investor, adviser, and board member. The statements in this episode reflect Joe’s personal views as of the date of recording and may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Nothing in this episode constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor should any statement be understood as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or invest in any 8VC-managed vehicle. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own professional advisers before making any investment decisions. American Optimist is Joe’s personal podcast; the views expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of 8VC or its affiliates.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 157: Scott Nolan on the AI Energy Crisis & America's Nuclear Renaissance
In 2010, the U.S. and China were at parity in electricity generation. Today, China boasts triple our capacity. We’re at the vanguard of the AI revolution but falling dangerously behind in energy production …
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In 2010, the U.S. and China were at parity in electricity generation. Today, China boasts triple our capacity. We’re at the vanguard of the AI revolution but falling dangerously behind in energy production. Scott Nolan has identified a key bottleneck in nuclear energy and is at the forefront of the effort to scale nuclear power and help America achieve energy abundance.
While studying at Cornell University, Scott landed an internship at Boeing. He quickly jumped to SpaceX as an early employee and worked on the Falcon propulsion systems and Dragon capsule. He later became Partner at Founders Fund, where he focuses on energy, infrastructure, biotech, and other key sectors. In 2024, he founded General Matter to rebuild America’s nuclear enrichment capacity.
We begin the episode with Scott’s entrepreneurial journey, the contrast between Boeing and SpaceX, and how to build a culture that prioritizes speed and performance in a highly regulated sector. Next, Scott explains the origins of General Matter and breaks down the science behind creating nuclear fuel. In the 1980s, the U.S. produced 80% of global enriched uranium; today that number is zero. Learn how post-Cold War disarmament destroyed our capacity to the point where we are now reliant on Russia, among others, for enrichment. Scott explains how China surged ahead in electricity generation, and what it will take to jumpstart America’s nuclear renaissance. Finally, we cover exciting new possibilities, including nuclear power in space and on the moon, and what a future of cheap, abundant energy could look like.
00:00 Episode intro
01:20 Boeing vs SpaceX / lessons on speed & performance
05:20 What made SpaceX unique?
09:05 General Matter / how to make nuclear fuel
16:45 Disarmament and relying on Russia
19:50 The AI energy crisis / falling behind China
24:30 Founders Fund and energy investing
27:15 How to scale nuclear energy
32:00 How to fund the nuclear buildout
36:15 Nuclear in space & new possibilities
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 156: Coleman Hughes Takes on America's Most Contentious Debate: the Legacy of Slavery
Is America’s national wealth built on slavery? Are disparities between races today attributable to past injustices? Will we ever overcome race politics? These difficult questions are at the heart of Coleman …
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Is America’s national wealth built on slavery? Are disparities between races today attributable to past injustices? Will we ever overcome race politics? These difficult questions are at the heart of Coleman Hughes’ new course at the University of Austin titled “The Legacy of Slavery.”
Coleman is one of the clearest voices confronting race-essentialism in America today. He’s the author of The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America, host of the Conversations with Coleman podcast, and a visiting professor at the University of Austin.
In this episode, Coleman takes us behind the scenes of his new UATX course, where he examines the two opposing philosophies that emerged from the civil rights era: Dr. King’s colorblind vision and Derrick Bell’s Critical Race Theory. He breaks these down into two camps -- minimalist and maximalist -- and explains how he equips students to weigh the merits of each side. He contrasts the UATX approach, where Thomas Sowell versus Ta-Nehisi Coates takes center stage, to his time at Columbia University and its obsession with racial grievances. Then we dive into a few legacy debates: Is America’s wealth due to slavery? Is the collapse of the two-parent black family a result of past injustice? Finally, Coleman lays out three steps toward an optimistic vision for race in America: get race out of the law (end affirmative action), stop programming children to see race, and foster a growing economy with opportunity for all.
00:00 Episode intro
01:40 Teaching the Legacy of Slavery
06:20 Coleman’s journey from Columbia to UATX
08:30 Dr. King vs Derrick Bell
11:20 Racial disparities by IQ and salary
13:00 Thomas Sowell & the Real History of Slavery
19:00 America’s Founding hypocrisy
24:00 Will the Left cancel Dr. King?
26:20 Understanding the 1619 Project
30:25 Breakdown of the black family
37:20 Is America wealthy because of slavery?
43:50 Are you worried about woke AI?
45:40 Three solutions for racial progress
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 155: Eric Scott on the Biggest Missed Opportunity in Venture Investing
As a former Principal at Founders Fund, Founding Partner at SciFi VC, and 8VC advisor, Eric Scott has invested in and helped build numerous technology leaders. He’s launching his new fund, Overlook Capital …
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As a former Principal at Founders Fund, Founding Partner at SciFi VC, and 8VC advisor, Eric Scott has invested in and helped build numerous technology leaders. He’s launching his new fund, Overlook Capital, where he sees missed opportunities in the market. How has venture investing evolved in recent years? Where does he see the dislocations? And how will AI change the game going forward?
After graduating from Claremont McKenna College, Eric emailed his way into Max Levchin’s network, becoming an early employee at HVF Labs where he learned to invest and build companies. He later spun out SciFi VC as its Founding Partner, before landing as a Principal at Founders Fund. He was an early investor in Anduril, Crusoe Energy, among others, and a senior advisor at 8VC where he helped us launch Harbor Health.
We begin our conversation with Eric’s journey — from persuading Max Levchin to hire him as a technical assistant to investing at HVF and launching SciFi VC. Next, we dive into the state of venture today. Learn why Eric believes that larger and larger fund sizes are concentrating capital into the hottest AI bets, creating real inefficiencies just below the top tier. He lays out the thesis behind his new firm and where he sees missed opportunities. Finally, Eric shares his optimistic vision for the years ahead and why he believes this is one of the best times in a generation to start and build important companies.
00:00 Episode intro
01:30 Meeting Max Levchin and learning to build
06:30 Launching SciFi VC & investment lessons
12:05 How VC is changing
13:40 Biggest missed opportunity in venture
16:15 Enormous dislocations in the market
21:30 How AI is changing the game
24:00 Overlook Capital
27:50 Optimism for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 154: Jacob Helberg on Pax Silica & the New Global Order in the AI Age
Jacob Helberg is leading the State Department's efforts to secure critical supply chains and win the global AI race. How is the U.S. shifting from dependency on China to building new partnerships around energy …
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Jacob Helberg is leading the State Department's efforts to secure critical supply chains and win the global AI race. How is the U.S. shifting from dependency on China to building new partnerships around energy, minerals, and infrastructure? Which economies will grow fastest in the AI era? Who will be left behind? And how will this impact geopolitics? We discuss these timely topics with Jacob, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. A tech policy veteran who worked at Google and Palantir before serving on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Jacob was confirmed last fall to help execute the administration’s economic statecraft agenda. He's the author of "The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power."We begin our conversation with Jacob’s mission at the State Department and the launch of Pax Silica: a new US-led economic security coalition to secure supply chains and help America dominate in AI innovation. We dive into Jacob's recent deal in the Philippines to build an AI-native industrial hub, and explore the contrast with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Next, Jacob makes the bull case for AI drawing on lessons from history: the PC revolution displaced 3.5 million jobs, he explains, but created 19 million more with the advent of the software industry! Finally, he explains why principled, positive-sum diplomacy is delivering results where old models failed, and how the AI revolution is transforming the global balance of power.
00:00 Episode intro
02:30 Historic deal with Philippines
05:25 Jacob's background
07:30 Why is Europe falling behind?
13:00 The asymmetric power of tech
15:35 Jacob responds to AI doomers & skeptics
19:15 Global Competition: China, AI, and Diverging Growth
21:45 What is Pax Silica?
23:45 New Global Order in AI age
29:30 Is China pushing back?
31:45 Optimism for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 153: Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar on Heretics, AI Weapons, and Rebuilding the Arsenal of Democracy
Shyam Sankar is one of my favorite American innovators. As CTO of Palantir, he's been a key leader for over 20 years and built much of what the company stands for. He's also a patriot, and recently commissioned …
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Shyam Sankar is one of my favorite American innovators. As CTO of Palantir, he's been a key leader for over 20 years and built much of what the company stands for. He's also a patriot, and recently commissioned as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. His new best-selling book "Mobilize" lays out the crisis of the American industrial base, how to revive what made us a global superpower, and what it will take to prevent the next great power conflict.
Shyam's father was raised in a mud hut in India. He and his family relocated to Nigeria but fled to the United States after armed robbers nearly murdered them. Shyam joined Palantir as the 13th employee, where he helped shape its unique culture, develop key business strategies, and scale Palantir into a $300+ billion global software giant. In 2025, he was commissioned as a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve's new Detachment 201: Executive Innovation Corps, and earlier this year, he released "Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III."
We begin our conversation with Shyam’s extraordinary journey to the U.S. and what this country means to him. Next, we reminisce about the early days at Palantir and what made the culture unique, from his famous Shyam-isms to living in the office for a month straight to earn free BBQ Fridays. Learn how Shyam coined the term "Forward Deployed Engineers" and proved that the best software is built shoulder-to-shoulder with the customer. Then we dive into his new book and the dangerous atrophy of America’s defense industrial base. Shyam reveals that the U.S. expended 10 years of production in 10 weeks of conflict, and explains how we can once again become the arsenal of democracy. We also discuss the culture at the Pentagon and why some heretics must be protected at all costs. Finally, we explore the clash between leading AI researchers and the Department of War, and how to bridge the gap between Silicon Valley and D.C. and secure the next great American century.
00:00 Episode intro
01:45 Mud hut in India to life in America
05:25 Employee #13 at Palantir
09:45 How Shyam created Forward Deployed Engineers
13:05 What are Shyam-isms?
14:55 Business discipline & learning to say no
19:20 The crisis of the American industrial base
24:00 Some heretics must be protected
29:00 The factory is the weapon
34:00 Magical AI weapons
43:00 Optimism for America's future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 152: Ben Black Runs America's $200B Foreign Investment Fund; Here's His Plan to Counter China & Rebuild American Influence
Ben Black is the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Backed by a $205 billion budget, his mandate is to invest in U.S. strategic interests, build new markets, and deliver real …
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Ben Black is the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Backed by a $205 billion budget, his mandate is to invest in U.S. strategic interests, build new markets, and deliver real returns for taxpayers. What projects is the DFC prioritizing? How is he countering China's trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative? And how is the Trump administration shifting from a paternalistic view of foreign aid toward investing with accountability and an expectation of returns?
A history major at the University of Pennsylvania, Ben began his career in finance at Goldman Sachs before earning a JD and MBA at Harvard. He worked in private equity at Apollo Global Management before founding the investment firm Fortinbras. Last fall, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as CEO of the DFC. His drive to serve was shaped by his grandfather, a WWII tail gunner in the Aleutians, and by watching his father build Apollo into a global powerhouse.
We begin our conversation with Ben’s entrepreneurial journey before diving into the history of U.S. foreign aid. Learn how the U.S. regressed from the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt Europe and fostered investment in America, to promoting a culture of waste and dependency in foreign aid — and how the Trump administration is reversing course (check out our essay from January 2025 on these issues). Next, Ben lays out the flaws in China's extractive Belt and Road model and explains how the DFC is developing trusted partners, promoting free-market principles, and investing strategically. From maritime insurance in the Strait of Hormuz to rare earth mining, Ben reveals some of the DFC's recent wins and where he sees new long-term partnerships in South America and Asia. Instead of showering NGOs with taxpayer dollars and creating charity cases abroad, the Trump administration is restoring discipline and accountability — and Ben is a key leader in executing this vision and generating returns for the American people.
00:00 Episode intro
01:25 Ben’s path to DFC
08:30 $205 billion to invest abroad
10:00 Rethinking foreign aid
13:00 From Marshall Plan to waste and fraud
18:50 The Trump administration’s new approach
21:50 Countering China’s Belt & Road Initiative
28:00 Post-WWII order is changing / new opportunities
33:10 Maritime insurance and Strait of Hormuz
37:00 Optimism for America’s future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 151: The Myth of Michael Milken with Richard Sandler
Michael Milken revolutionized American finance and democratized access to capital for thousands of companies that Wall Street had previously written off. Yet he was unjustly attacked in the 1980s in one of the …
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Michael Milken revolutionized American finance and democratized access to capital for thousands of companies that Wall Street had previously written off. Yet he was unjustly attacked in the 1980s in one of the most controversial prosecutions in U.S. history. As one of Michael’s key defense lawyers, Richard Sandler sets the record straight in his new book: Witness to a Prosecution: The Myth of Michael Milken. How did Michael transform capital markets through high-yield bonds? Why was he unfairly targeted? Why did he ultimately agree to a plea deal? And what are the lessons about government power that everyone should learn?
We dive into these topics in this week’s episode with Richard Sandler, Partner at the law firm of Maron & Sandler and Executive Vice President and Trustee of the Milken Family Foundation. Richard and Lowell Milken, Michael’s younger brother, met in first grade while growing up in Los Angeles. After practicing law with his father, Richard joined Michael and Lowell’s firm -- Drexel Burnham Lambert -- to help the high-yield bond team. He saw firsthand the entire saga: the explosive rise and fall of Drexel, the unprecedented investigation, and ultimately, President Trump’s pardon of Michael in 2020.
We begin with Michael’s breakthrough in high-yield bonds. Learn how he almost single-handedly transformed the “junk bond” market from $70 billion to $700 billion in a decade, and helped finance the growth of great American entrepreneurs and companies — Ted Turner, Steve Wynn, MCI Communications, among others. Next, Richard walks us through the investigation: the unprecedented use of RICO against Drexel, the targeting of Lowell as a “hostage,” and the novel charges Michael ultimately pled to (none of which had been prosecuted before or since). Finally, we explore the deeper lessons about prosecutorial power, media narratives, and Michael’s extraordinary resilience. He has pushed forward medicine, science, and education in myriad ways, while inspiring many of our great leaders today.
00:00 Episode intro
01:35 Richard’s career & Michael Milken’s legacy
06:25 Why write this book?
08:00 How Michael Milken transformed finance
14:00 Why did they go after Drexel & Michael?
19:30 Using RICO to bring down Drexel
22:30 Prosecutorial abuse & the power of government
26:30 Why did Michael agree to a plea deal?
33:25 Trump grants Michael a full pardon
35:00 Lessons on government power, media influence & Michael’s resilience
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 150: How AI Is Transforming Diligence, Decision-Making & the Future of Investing with John Melas-Kyriazi
John Melas-Kyriazi is the co-founder and CEO of Standard Metrics, which powers portfolio management for more than 150 venture capital firms and 10,000 companies. He runs a high-growth SaaS company at the …
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John Melas-Kyriazi is the co-founder and CEO of Standard Metrics, which powers portfolio management for more than 150 venture capital firms and 10,000 companies. He runs a high-growth SaaS company at the leading edge of the AI wave. How is AI transforming how investors source and diligence deals? How are agents parsing pitch decks, prepping board meetings, and building powerful new workflows? And as competitive advantages shift, what are the new moats for SaaS companies in the AI age?
We discuss these and other timely topics with John. At an early age, he fell in love with science fiction and built vacuum-tube amplifiers in his parents' basement, before studying physics and materials science at Stanford. There he became a research scientist until pivoting to investing, first at StartX and later Spark Capital. Born out of firsthand experience, he co-founded Standard Metrics alongside the 8VC Build team to create a better solution for portfolio management software.
We begin our conversation with John’s path from academia to investor and founder. Next, we explore how Standard Metrics centralizes data, improves portfolio intelligence, and powers smarter investment decisions. Then we dive into the new possibilities with AI, from technical diligence copilots and investment stress-testing to new workflows and internal AI analysts. In an era of new agentic tools and shifting competitive advantages, we discuss new moats for existing software companies built around network effects, data, and more. The world of finance is changing quickly; John offers a unique perspective on the AI wave and how top investors are leveraging new workflows to get ahead.
00:00 Episode intro
02:10 Academia to investor and founder
08:00 The pain point that led to building Standard Metrics
12:10 How AI is transforming venture capital
14:20 AI as a technical copilot
17:10 AI Analyst vs human in the loop
19:20 Parsing pitch decks and new AI tools
23:10 How AI search is changing marketing
28:30 New capabilities and workflows
33:47 How quickly is everything changing?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 149: Will Fry on the Small Business Succession Crisis & New Opportunities in the AI Age
In the coming years, over two million small businesses will change hands or close their doors as Baby Boomers retire. Will Fry, Founder and CEO of American Operator, is on a mission to save Main Street and …
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In the coming years, over two million small businesses will change hands or close their doors as Baby Boomers retire. Will Fry, Founder and CEO of American Operator, is on a mission to save Main Street and seize this opportunity for the next generation of local owners and operators. How does the operate-to-own model work? Should talented young people think twice about traditional careers and pursue ownership opportunities instead? And why is Will especially bullish on small business in the AI age?
Raised in a small town in North Carolina, Will developed an early love for building, starting with electronic kits and later unique apps. After studying at Penn and Wharton, a trip home revealed the looming crisis: millions of local businesses that lack succession plans. This sparked the creation of American Operator, which pairs retiring owners with high-agency operators, along with the capital and know-how to build a thriving business.
We begin with Will’s entrepreneurial journey and the coming “Silver Tsunami.” Will explains why only 48% of small business owners have succession plans and what this means for the next generation of owner-operators. He highlights stories like Greenway Painting in Jackson, Wyoming, and how American Operator is helping create millionaires on Main Street while keeping local business local. Next, we explore the historical and cultural importance of small business in America, dating back to John Hancock’s import-export firm and Ben Franklin’s printing shop. Looking ahead, we examine AI’s impact on small businesses. Learn why Will believes SMBs are a great AI hedge, while also having unique upside as new AI tools make small cohorts of people dramatically more productive. Finally, Will explains the operate-to-own model and how American Operator aligns incentives so that original owners become valuable advisors, new operators can earn their way into majority ownership, and American Operator remains a committed partner over the long run.
00:00 Episode intro
01:25 Will’s entrepreneurial journey
04:15 The small business succession crisis
06:40 American Operator’s approach vs. private equity
11:55 Does AI mean boom or bust for small business?
15:55 Forget law school? Buy a small business instead?
21:20 AI use cases for small business
23:00 Why many business owners shut down instead of sell
26:00 How the operate-to-own model works
33:50 Optimism for Main Street America
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 148: JoeBen Bevirt, Founder & CEO of Joby Aviation — Flying Cars Have Arrived
Last year, JoeBen Bevirt joined the show to discuss the vision behind Joby Aviation and bringing air taxis to life. Now, he's back to talk execution and getting to market this year! What states will be first to …
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Last year, JoeBen Bevirt joined the show to discuss the vision behind Joby Aviation and bringing air taxis to life. Now, he's back to talk execution and getting to market this year! What states will be first to offer Joby rides — and when? How is Joby ramping up manufacturing to meet the moment? And how is AI making Joby’s top scientists over 10X more productive and accelerating decades of advancement into the next few years?" As Founder and CEO of Joby Aviation, JoeBen has spent more than a decade building Joby into the leader in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and we begin with its unique design: 100 times quieter than a helicopter and dramatically safer to operate with layered redundancy across six propulsion stations, dual motors, and dual battery packs. Next, we talk about the significance of Joby's partnership with Toyota, how they're ramping up manufacturing, and why they're massively expanding their Ohio facilities. Then, JoeBen lays out their regulatory progress, from achieving their first FAA-conforming aircraft to the White House's historic pilot program that will bring air taxis to 12 states starting this year, including Texas!Additionally, we explore the coming age of autonomy, why Joby is partnering with NVIDIA to build out its autonomous flight stack, and how AI is transforming everything from aerodynamics research to back-office tasks. You'll also learn about Joby's breakthrough hydrogen-electric program — unlocking long-range commercial and defense applications — and why staying ahead of China is critical for American leadership in this next age of flight. Finally, JoeBen shares his grand vision for an electric era of aviation and a future without traffic — something we can all get behind.
00:00 Episode Intro
01:50 What sets Joby aircraft apart
04:50 Key partnerships with Toyota & NVIDIA
06:50 Closing in on FAA Certification
08:00 Air Taxis coming to 12 states this year!
13:35 Autonomous flight is the future
20:00 Hydrogen aircraft for the Pentagon
24:10 Why AI is a game changer
28:15 Expansion in Ohio and Global Competition with China
34:40 Addressing critics / future vision
35:50 Making air travel ubiquitous
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 147: Scott Wu & Russell Kaplan on the New Era of Software Abundance
Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan, co-founders of Cognition, are leading one of the fastest-growing, talent-dense AI companies. Their mission: make expert software engineering ubiquitous. What does a world of …
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Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan, co-founders of Cognition, are leading one of the fastest-growing, talent-dense AI companies. Their mission: make expert software engineering ubiquitous. What does a world of software abundance look like? How is Cognition delivering massive productivity gains inside some of the largest companies and organizations? And can AI finally modernize the broken, $100 billion government IT systems?
We discuss these and other timely topics with Scott and Russell. Scott was a three-time gold medalist at the International Olympiad in Informatics and world champion at age 17. After high school, we hired him at Addepar, where he became a top software engineer. Russell began his career as a machine learning engineer on Tesla’s Autopilot team before selling his video data company, Helia, to Scale AI. In 2023, Scott and Russell co-founded Cognition, and a year later, they shocked the technology world with the release of Devin, the first AI software agent.
We begin our conversation by discussing the incredible collection of young talent at Cognition, and why the next generation has new advantages in the AI era. Next, we catch up on Cognition’s explosive growth: Devin usage in the first few months of 2026 already surpassed all of 2025. Scott reveals that Cognition engineers no longer write code and explains how they’re able to test and ship new products faster than ever before. Then, we dive into the new era of software abundance and what it means if everyone has access to high-quality engineering, from modernizing large legacy enterprises to supercharging small businesses. We also discuss Cognition’s recent foray into government services and its work to modernize complex outdated systems. Finally, we explore the talent flywheel that has drawn so many former founders to Cognition, and why Scott and Russell believe we’re moving from Minecraft “survival mode” to “creative mode” — where the only limit to building is imagination itself.
00:00 Episode intro
01:35 Why technical talent & execution matters in AI
06:10 Do young people have an edge in the AI era?
08:26 Cognition’s rapid growth
11:55 The new era of software abundance
14:30 Cognition engineers don’t type code anymore
19:20 “Never sleep while Devin is idling”
21:25 The case for AI disinflation
23:50 How Devin generates 12X productivity gains
28:25 Cognition for government / taking on complex, broken systems
36:40 The AI race / competition with Anthropic
39:00 Forward deployed engineers?
43:40 How fast are LLMs improving?
47:10 AI-led small business explosion
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 146: Jake Paul & Geoff Woo on Building Anti Fund, the Future of the Creator Economy & How to Change the Culture
Jake Paul is a social media influencer-turned-entrepreneur and boxer. He’s not only one of the most popular figures on the planet among Gen Z, but also an outspoken patriot, capitalist, and builder. Together …
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Jake Paul is a social media influencer-turned-entrepreneur and boxer. He’s not only one of the most popular figures on the planet among Gen Z, but also an outspoken patriot, capitalist, and builder. Together, he and Geoff Woo founded Anti Fund and have backed OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, among others. Why did Jake decide to speak out on politics? How do we win over the next generation? And how is AI changing the culture, from new social media platforms to prediction markets and the revival of in-person events?
We recorded this conversation the day after Jake appeared with President Trump at a Kentucky rally. He explains why he’s speaking out on politics, even if it costs him financially, and why authenticity is key to cultural influence. Next, we explore the origins of Anti Fund, and how Jake and Geoff had the conviction to back Anduril before defense tech was in vogue. They also invested in OpenAI and were instrumental in rolling out Sora; learn about the strategy behind the launch and the challenges around AI slop and identity authentication. Additionally, Jake is the co-founder of Betr, and we discuss its recent partnership with Polymarket, what’s next for prediction markets, and how to build guardrails for customers. Finally, we explore Jake’s success in pioneering the creator economy and building consumer brands. In the 1960s and 70s, most kids aspired to become astronauts. Today, they want to be content creators, in part because of Jake’s influence. We conclude with Jake’s advice for young people in the AI era, and how we can persuade the next generation to love their country and embrace a builder mindset.
00:00 Episode intro
02:20 On stage with President Trump
06:00 Attention is the most valuable currency
08:00 The origins of Anti Fund and backing OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, and others
09:10 Betr + Polymarket and the future of prediction markets
14:58 Launching Sora with OpenAI
16:14 Are you worried about AI slop?
19:10 How AI is changing culture; revival of in-person events
21:20 Who should become a creator?
24:30 Fighters as cultural icons
31:30 How to win the culture
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 145: SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler on Exposing Billions in Fraud & What AI Means for Small Business
Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler is playing a pivotal role in our nation on two fronts: supporting the next generation of small business owners, while exposing and combating billions of dollars in …
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Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler is playing a pivotal role in our nation on two fronts: supporting the next generation of small business owners, while exposing and combating billions of dollars in fraud. How is AI impacting small businesses? Could this be a golden age for Main Street America? What's the staggering scale of fraud she's uncovering? And how is she working with Palantir and other top talent to ensure it never happens again?
We discuss these timely topics and more with Administrator Loeffler. Growing up on a farm in rural Illinois, Kelly raised cattle and was exposed to the challenges of small business early on. She became the first in her family to graduate college and built a distinguished career in financial services at Intercontinental Exchange. In 2018, she became the founding CEO and first employee of the fintech startup, Bakkt, which brought institutional infrastructure to crypto. Kelly was appointed to serve in the U.S. Senate in 2020 and later confirmed as Administrator of the Small Business Administration in February 2025.
We begin our conversation with Kelly's entrepreneurial journey, before diving into her mission at the SBA. Her leadership comes at a pivotal juncture: a $10 trillion generational wealth transfer amid a technological revolution. As Baby Boomers retire and new AI tools emerge, Kelly believes young talent should think twice about traditional pathways and consider small business ownership instead. She lays out the administration's agenda, including expanding SBA loans for reindustrialization and bolstering the manufacturing jobs of the future. Next, we dive into her other core responsibility: exposing fraud. Learn how the SBA uncovered over $400 million of COVID-era fraud in Minnesota, $9 billion in California, and they're just getting started. She's also investigating 8(a) minority contracting — a program for disadvantaged communities hijacked by the Biden administration for race-based contracting and grift. The SBA is bringing in top talent and technology, including Palantir, to expose the fraud, revamp the programs, and protect taxpayers.
00:00 Episode intro
01:40 Farming to finance
04:46 Building Bakkt & institutional infrastructure for crypto
09:00 AI & the future of small business
13:58 How to supercharge manufacturing in America
16:15 Exposing billions in fraud
18:50 The scandal of minority contracting
20:25 Using Palantir to investigate fraud
27:15 The NGO grift scheme
29:50 Optimism for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 144: Jared Isaacman's Bold Vision for Moon Bases, Nuclear Power in Space, and Returning NASA to Greatness
As a teenager, Jared Isaacman built a billion-dollar payments company. He then pursued aviation, acquiring the world's largest private air force and creating “Top Gun as a service,” before commanding the first …
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As a teenager, Jared Isaacman built a billion-dollar payments company. He then pursued aviation, acquiring the world's largest private air force and creating “Top Gun as a service,” before commanding the first all-civilian spaceflight. Now, he's taking on his greatest challenge: returning NASA to greatness. Can we beat China back to the Moon? Will we reach Mars within a decade? And how close are we to making nuclear propulsion, space colonies, and other sci-fi futures a reality? We discuss all this and more with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. We begin with his upbringing and the origins of Shift4 Payments, which now processes more than $200 billion annually. A prolific pilot, he went on to build Draken International and acquire over 100 fighter jets for adversary training — at one point, he owned the 12th largest air force in the world! Next, we dive into his experience as a commercial astronaut and why he sought the helm of NASA. Jared outlines his bold vision to reform NASA, starting with his announcement to increase the Artemis launch cadence and ensure a return to the Moon by 2028. We discuss the challenges of building a permanent Moon presence, and why nuclear power and propulsion in space is a NASA-unique mission that will attract top talent and help the agency achieve greatness again. Finally, we explore the growing space economy and exciting sci-fi realities we will experience in the years ahead. NASA is a storied American institution; we are fortunate to have a talented leader like Jared who wants to see it not only thrive again, but reach even greater heights.
00:00 Episode intro
01:30 Top Gun as a service
07:40 Founding a billion-dollar payments company
09:30 Pioneering private spaceflight
12:00 What happened to NASA?
14:40 Getting back to the Moon by 2028
20:47 Jared announces new plans for Artemis
25:15 Future of the space economy
27:50 Nuclear power in space
29:00 Sci-fi futures becoming reality
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 143: JD Ross on the New Invention Era & Building with AI in 2026
JD Ross is one of my favorite entrepreneurs. I hired him out of college at Addepar where he quickly became Head of Product. He went on to co-found Opendoor with Keith Rabois and is now building WithCoverage — …
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JD Ross is one of my favorite entrepreneurs. I hired him out of college at Addepar where he quickly became Head of Product. He went on to co-found Opendoor with Keith Rabois and is now building WithCoverage — one of the fastest growing AI-first service companies. JD believes we're entering an "invention era" again. What are the new possibilities with AI? What does it mean for legacy software companies? And why is he especially excited for young talent entering the workforce today?We discuss all this and more, starting with JD's entrepreneurial journey, from founding a moving company in college (that still generates +$10M a year in sales!) to joining Addepar and later founding Opendoor. We discuss some of the breakthroughs and challenges at Opendoor, and why its meme stock moment is infusing new energy and ideas into the company. Next, we dive into WithCoverage and his mission to upend the insurance brokerage industry by combining new AI tools with human expertise — think Ramp for risk management. Initially backed by 8VC, WithCoverage already serves more than 700 enterprise customers and recently closed a $42 million round led by Sequoia and Khosla Ventures. Talented builders like JD are scaling and iterating on new products faster than anything we've seen before — learn what this means for the startup ecosystem, as well as existing SaaS companies looking over their shoulders. Finally, JD explains how AI is leveling the playing field and why he believes this is the best opportunity for new entrepreneurs in recent decades.
00:00 Episode intro
01:28 JD's entrepreneurial journey
05:18 Wins and challenges at Opendoor / meme stock moment
09:55 WithCoverage and upending insurance brokerage with AI
13:11 Mimetic frameworks for entrepreneurs
15:45 How AI is changing the way companies are built
20:21 The impact of AI on existing SaaS
26:50 How to stop AI spam and imposters
31:27 How should young people prepare for the AI era?
34:20 The new invention era / why AI levels the playing field
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 142: Understanding the AI Wave with 8VC's Alex Kolicich & Jack Moshkovich
Advances in AI are occurring at a pace we haven’t seen before in Silicon Valley. How do we know what’s real versus hype? What does it mean for large software incumbents? And how are the top investors and …
Shownotes
Advances in AI are occurring at a pace we haven’t seen before in Silicon Valley. How do we know what’s real versus hype? What does it mean for large software incumbents? And how are the top investors and builders thinking about the new possibilities? This week, we talk with two of my partners at 8VC, Alex Kolicich and Jack Moshkovich, who are on the ground working with the leading AI talent to get their perspective on what’s really happening.
Alex Kolicich is a Partner at 8VC, where he specializes in IT and Bio-IT investments. Prior, he was a Partner at Formation 8 and worked alongside Peter Thiel at Mithril Capital Management. Alex was also an engineer and early-product advisor at Clarium, Palantir, and Google. Jack Moshkovich began his career at 8VC and helps lead our investment practice alongside Alex out of San Francisco, where he focuses on enterprise software.
We begin with Silicon Valley’s most recent technological wave: smart enterprise. In 2013, we published our smart enterprise thesis, predicting the B2B software explosion that drove tremendous value creation over the past decade. Now, we’re entering the next landmark shift: the AI wave. Learn why AI is fundamentally disruptive (you can find our thesis here), and the enormous leap from data retrieval to automated decision making and from linear to non-linear problem solving. Next, we dive into the six layers of the AI investment stack, and why we are focused on level five: the application layer. We dissect the tremendous opportunities for AI-native upstarts, as well as the challenges — and upside — for smart enterprise pioneers that can reorient around AI. Finally, we discuss some of the key questions in the years ahead: When and where will we see massive productivity gains in the economy? Will LLMs become commodities, or is each frontier model sufficiently differentiated? And are we entering a bubble, or is the AI wave just getting started?
00:00 Episode intro
01:40 Smart enterprise thesis
04:00 Did enterprise software dramatically boost productivity?
08:30 Understanding the AI wave
11:45 Are LLMs becoming commodities?
17:10 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Meta vs Grok
20:30 Frontier models vs enterprise incumbents
25:20 What did Palantir get right?
32:30 AI case studies/new possibilities
43:00 The most surprising aspect of the AI wave
46:10 Are we entering a bubble? Or just getting started?
52:40 Biggest concern with AI
58:00 Biggest reason for optimism
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 141: AI Hackers Are Here; Cybersecurity Legend Kevin Mandia Is Building the Answer
When Kevin Mandia’s phone rings, it’s often a Fortune 500 CEO or government leader with a billion-dollar problem. How did he become the go-to expert in cybersecurity? What new threats from AI led him back into …
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When Kevin Mandia’s phone rings, it’s often a Fortune 500 CEO or government leader with a billion-dollar problem. How did he become the go-to expert in cybersecurity? What new threats from AI led him back into the arena? And what is he building to protect the good guys?
Kevin began his career in the U.S. Air Force, defending the U.S. military from some of the earliest cyber attacks. He went on to found and lead Mandiant, scaling it into an industry leader which Google acquired in 2022 for over $5 billion. In 2013, he famously exposed China’s massive state-sponsored cyber espionage inside America. Kevin has also served on the National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) and the CISA Cybersecurity Advisory Committee. He recently launched Armadin to address new AI possibilities in the cyber domain.
To begin, Kevin takes us behind the scenes of the early cyber skirmishes in the 1990s, and what it was like confronting some of the first cyber incursions from Russia and China, as well as the rise of criminal cyber enterprises. In the early 2000s, Kevin noticed glaring gaps in conventional antivirus approaches and launched Mandiant. Learn how he quickly became the first person that CEOs and governments would call if they’d been hacked. After scaling Mandiant and exiting to Google, Kevin is now back in the arena building cutting-edge solutions to new AI cyber threats. He explains the dramatic increase in the productivity and sophistication of AI agents, and why it’s upending how we build cyber defenses. Find out what he’s most worried about in 2026, and what steps governments and CEOs need to take to secure their networks and infrastructure.
0:00 Episode intro
01:30 Kevin's journey into cyber; early attacks from Russia & China
05:00 The evolution of cyber espionage and crime
08:00 Founding Mandiant; why Fortune 500 CEOs call Kevin
13:30 What's it like getting hacked by Russia?
21:30 AI hackers are here; Kevin's warning
27:00 Protecting critical infrastructure; harnessing AI for cyber defense
31:30 Engineers vs AI agents
36:40 Optimism for the future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 140: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Making IPOs Great Again, Crypto's Comeback & New Rules for Retail Investors
America’s capital markets are the envy of the world, but in recent years, misguided policies have driven innovation offshore and stifled the number of companies going public. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is …
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America’s capital markets are the envy of the world, but in recent years, misguided policies have driven innovation offshore and stifled the number of companies going public. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is reversing course. What’s his plan to make IPOs great again? What will it take for America to become the crypto capital of the world? And does he think we should expand access to private markets for retail investors?
This week, we’re honored to feature a conversation with Paul Atkins, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. He also served as a commissioner at the SEC from 2002 to 2008, and worked on the staff of two SEC chairmen from 1990 to 1994. Prior to returning to the SEC in 2025, Chairman Atkins was the founder and chief executive of Patomak Global Partners, a financial services firm he founded in 2009.
We begin with Chairman Atkins’ visit to Texas, the significance of Texas’ new business courts, and the importance of innovation in our financial markets. Whereas his predecessor, Gary Gensler, took an adversarial, regulation-by-enforcement approach, he’s embracing new technologies and regulatory clarity. In this vein, the Chairman lays out his strategy for making IPOs great again. Learn why the number of public companies has dropped by nearly half since 2007, and how Chairman Atkins is reforming the rules around litigation and corporate governance to deter activists from harassing America’s builders. We also discuss President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world, and what it looks like to provide clear guidelines that promote innovation and protect investors. Finally, we explore the steps he’s taking to enable retail investors to access private markets and other alternative assets.
0:00 Episode intro
1:35 Texas' new business courts / evolution of U.S. markets
7:20 The SEC's new approach to crypto
16:00 Making IPOs and public companies great again
25:00 Weaponization of shareholder proposals and ESG
32:10 National security concerns / China's bad actions
36:30 New rules for retail investors & private companies
44:35 Optimism for America's future
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.comEp 139: Make Government Beautiful & Functional Again with America's Chief Design Officer Joe Gebbia
First, he digitized the entire federal retirement process, cutting it from six months to a few days. Now, he’s overhauling the U.S. government’s online presence, one website at a time. And Joe Gebbia has been …
Shownotes
First, he digitized the entire federal retirement process, cutting it from six months to a few days. Now, he’s overhauling the U.S. government’s online presence, one website at a time. And Joe Gebbia has been in Washington, D.C. less than a year! Learn why he stepped up to serve, and the impact our best minds can have on D.C., in a conversation with our nation’s first Chief Design Officer.
As co-founder of Airbnb, Joe turned a living-room experiment into a multi-billion dollar global brand. Then, he launched Samara, helping homeowners reimagine their yards with state-of-the-art Accessory Dwelling Units. He also sits on the boards of Airbnb, Airbnb.org, and Tesla. Last February, he joined Elon Musk and the DOGE team in D.C. to overhaul retirement for federal workers, before setting his sights on modernizing the nation’s 27,000 .gov websites.
We begin with Joe’s journey to D.C., and how a former Democrat came to support President Trump and take on problems that have plagued government for decades. His first challenge: federal retirement and “the mine” — a storage facility inside a Pennsylvania mountain that houses all federal employees’ retirement paperwork. Learn how Joe worked alongside career civil servants to transform a broken, six-month slog into a digital-only process that takes mere days. Now, he’s set his sights even higher: overhauling the government’s digital portals and delivering an Airbnb-like experience, starting with the Trump Gold Card, TrumpRX.gov, and, more recently, RealFood.gov and TrumpAccounts.gov. We go inside the Oval Office and Joe reveals his conversations with Pres. Trump on the importance of aesthetics, functionality, and design. Drawing inspiration from President Nixon’s beautification initiative, he worked with Pres. Trump to launch the government’s first digital makeover. It’s inspiring to see Joe’s leadership, and if you, or someone you know, wants to join his elite team of designers and engineers, there are a few spots remaining.
00:00 Episode intro
01:15 Lifelong Democrat to Trump White House
07:50 Text from Elon / Joining DOGE
10:20 “The Mine” & fixing federal retirement
13:50 “What if we did it in a week?”
21:45 What happened to DOGE?
23:30 Becoming America’s Chief Design Officer
26:45 Inside the Oval Office with Pres. Trump
31:00 Fixing 27,000 .gov websites
34:00 Making America beautiful & functional again
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.joelonsdale.com
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