Iran's Regime Change, Future & The End of the Rules-Based Order? | Rodger Shanahan

Rodger Shanahan joins John Anderson to examine the true objectives behind U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. Is this about preventing a nuclear capability, dismantling Iran’s proxy network, or ultimately forcing regime change? Shanahan argues that while public messaging has been inconsistent, the rhetoric and targeting patterns increasingly point toward regime change — a strategic ambition with a poor historical record when pursued through air power alone.
The discussion unpacks Iran’s ideological foundations, its history of foreign intervention, the erosion of its “forward defence” strategy, and the real limits of military precision in shaping political outcomes. From contested nuclear claims to the future of the rules-based order, this is a sober, strategic assessment of whether the world will emerge safer — or more unstable.
Rodger Shanahan is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute specialising in Middle East security and strategic affairs. He holds a PhD in Arab and Islamic Studies from the University of Sydney and is a former Australian Army officer with operational deployments to Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan and East Timor, as well as diplomatic postings to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He has also served as an expert witness in more than 30 Australian terrorism cases.