How Iran Outlasted Trump | Trita Parsi

Will Trump make a deal with Iran, escalate, or walk away? Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, puts the odds of a deal at less than 50% and says the most likely outcome is a quiet walkaway, with the blockade and sanctions left to decay. But he warns the risk of escalation hasn't passed.

Parsi was one of our first guests after the Iran war began, when he told us Tehran would drive up energy prices to swing the midterms against Trump. He's back to explain why the next four weeks matter, how Iran is cushioning the blockade, and whether the Gulf states and China could anchor a new regional security order.

In this episode:

(00:00) New Supreme Leader Rejects Gray Zone

(00:46) Trita Parsi Returns to One Decision

(01:54) Trump Three Iran Policy Options

(05:22) Nuclear Enrichment as Iranian Leverage

(08:50) Trump Legacy and Iran Vindictiveness

(13:42) Military Escalation Warning Signs

(15:28) What Finishing the Job Means

(17:36) Israel Mowing the Lawn Strategy

(21:58) Gulf States Pushback Against War

(23:44) Iranian Economy Under Blockade

(28:37) Why Status Quo Is Unsustainable

(32:31) Houthis and Regional Ceasefire Challenge

(37:04) Future Gulf Security Architecture

Show Notes:

Trita Parsi's Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)

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