Is Iran Secretly Building a Bomb at Pickaxe Mountain? A Nuclear Physicist Answers (w/ Ali Vaez)

Israel and the US may have extraordinary intelligence on Iran. But intelligence isn't the same as comprehension, according to nuclear physicist and 2015 Iran deal negotiator Ali Vaez.

Vaez joins John Raine and Sir Richard Dearlove to break down what Iran's nuclear capabilities really look like after the 12-day war. Plus, how Iran's Supreme National Security Council stays united under duress, how the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains primacy over the regular army, and why sanctions now at "nine out of ten" still won't force collapse. Iran doesn't need to win this standoff. It just needs not to lose.

In this episode:

(00:00) Ali Vaez on wartime Iran

(02:39) Is Iran's leadership a monolith or divided?

(03:55) Power centers: the SNSC, the Basij, and the IRGC

(10:09) The mystery of Mojtaba Khamenei

(12:00) Economic and military pressure on Iran

(15:00) A forever war? Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis

(27:47) What does the Iranian public actually think?

(32:33) Iran's nuclear program: what do we really know?

(42:18) Israeli intelligence, diplomacy, and the Ahmadinejad theory

(52:19) The decision only Donald Trump can make

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

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