Ask a Professional Scrum Trainer - Estimation and Planning with Ludwig Harsch

Why are forecasts so often late, or short of what was planned? In this live Ask a Professional Scrum Trainer session, Professional Scrum Trainer Ludwig Harsch answers audience questions on estimation and planning for Scrum Teams. He draws on his training and consulting work to explain why estimation should be tested and adapted to each team's context, not treated as a universal rule.

Ludwig explains how teams can move from unreliable hour estimates to relative sizing. He discusses when Planning Poker is worth the effort and when a lighter approach fits better. He also covers how to forecast when support work, context switching, and external dependencies eat into capacity. He makes the case for giving stakeholders projected dates with probabilities rather than fixed promises, and explains how Monte Carlo simulations can support that conversation.

In this episode:

• Moving from hours to relative sizing, and what "size" should mean
• Using Planning Poker and facilitation to build shared understanding
• Knowing when to stop estimating
• Using AI in estimation without losing team discussion
• Choosing a planning horizon, including for regulated products
• Handling support work, dependencies, and shifting priorities
• Comparing velocity, throughput, and capacity-adjusted metrics
• Why Scrum Teams commit to the Sprint Goal, not a fixed number of backlog items
• Advice for newly formed teams still collecting data

Tune in for some great insights on Estimation and Planning in Scrum.