Ten31 Timestamp: Partly Cloudy

Black Monday never showed up. Marty and John Arnold break down why markets shrugged off the weekend scare, and what the data under the surface is saying about AI spending, interest rates, and energy.

🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com

In this episode:

• Why Black Monday didn't happen and what markets did instead
• Anthropic's slowing revenue growth and the distillation fight
• Neo clouds, credit stress, and the cost of capital for the AI build out
• Hot inflation prints, the Fed, and bond market volatility
• Whether Treasury cuts 20 year issuance to deal with higher yields
• Diesel shortages, Gulf attacks, and Iran's economy
• China's export surge and what Europe might do about it

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Black Monday that wasn't

00:01:20 - Anthropic revenue growth slows ahead of IPO

00:01:38 - Distillation attacks and the irony of AI IP

00:05:12 - Neo clouds and credit default swaps under pressure

00:06:55 - Cost of capital for the AI build out

00:07:02 - Hot inflation and the Fed

00:07:57 - Ten year yields near 5% and forward guidance

00:10:13 - Convexity Maven on bond volatility and the MOVE index

00:12:57 - Treasury and the 20 year issuance rumor

00:15:39 - War driving up diesel prices

00:18:36 - Carney on maximizing diesel shipments to the US

00:19:27 - Iran GDP collapse and the blockade

00:21:29 - China's 36% export surge in September

00:22:14 - Robin Brooks and Michael Pettis on overproduction

00:24:35 - Jim Himes and bipartisan support for Europe and NATO

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