The Contrarians with Adam and Adir
- Folgen
- 264
- Erscheint
- mehrmals pro Woche
- Letzte Folge
- 13. Nov. 2026
Über den Podcast
Get the fearless truth about start-ups and corporate Australia from guys that give you the hard facts, not the company line. Hear Luxury Escapes co-founder Adam Schwab and Catapult Sports Exec Chairman Adir Shiffman provide the inside word on the biggest stories in business with a contrarian take from the guys who sit on both sides of the table. New episodes dropping weekly.
Folgen 264
Adir's Brutally Honest Advice on CEOs, Sales and Building a Business
How does Adir Shiffman seem to know something about almost every business? What makes a great CEO? And why does he think most companies misunderstand strategy, sales and marketing? Will joins Adir for a special …
Shownotes
How does Adir Shiffman seem to know something about almost every business? What makes a great CEO? And why does he think most companies misunderstand strategy, sales and marketing?
Will joins Adir for a special episode of The Contrarians, asking the questions he's always wanted to ask about how Adir thinks, learns and approaches building successful businesses.
They start with Adir's famously broad knowledge, why he doesn't prepare for the podcast, how he researches unfamiliar industries and the ways he uses AI to learn.Then they get into the practical side of running a company: when founders should hire a CEO, why replacing a founder can go horribly wrong, what strategy actually means, how to hire your first salesperson and why relationships could become even more valuable in the age of AI.
There's also a fascinating discussion about work-life balance, happiness, ambition, building a consumer brand from scratch and why great marketing starts on day one.
Plus, Adir shares some of the books and podcasts that have influenced the way he thinks.Whether you're a founder, investor, executive or simply interested in how great businesses are built, there's plenty to take away from this conversation.
CHAPTERS
02:12 - How Adir Learns, Thinks and Uses AI
13:54 - What Makes a Great CEO?
25:33 - Business Strategy, Growth and Ambition
36:42 - Sales, Marketing and Building a Great Business
Enjoyed this conversation with Adir?
Catch our recent special episode where Will sits down with Adam Schwab to discuss how he runs Luxury Escapes, builds high-performing teams and approaches business strategy.
How Adam Runs Luxury Escapes and Builds Great Teams
Listen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/id1703720734?i=1000797825812
Read or listen on The Contrarians:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/p/how-adam-runs-luxury-escapes-and-986
Catapult Sports:
https://www.catapult.com/BlueRock:https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrarians
Acquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrarians
Mastercard:
https://www.mastercard.com.au/
Aura Group:
https://www.aura.co/
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more:https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Australia's $38 Billion Gold Empire with ABC Bullion's Jordan Eliseo
Gold is having a moment. Prices have been soaring, investors are piling in, and one Australian business is right in the middle of it all. In this special Deep Dive episode of The Contrarians, Adam Schwab and …
Shownotes
Gold is having a moment. Prices have been soaring, investors are piling in, and one Australian business is right in the middle of it all. In this special Deep Dive episode of The Contrarians, Adam Schwab and Adir Shiffman sit down with Jordan Eliseo, General Manager of ABC Bullion, to get a proper look inside Australia's gold industry. ABC Bullion is part of Pallion Group, an Australian precious metals powerhouse that has generated an extraordinary $38 billion in annual revenue. But how does a business like this actually work? Where does all the gold come from? Who's buying it, and what happens to it once it's refined? Jordan takes us through the entire process, from refining and manufacturing to bullion trading, investing and secure storage. The boys also get into the bigger questions. Why has gold held its value for thousands of years? Is Bitcoin really digital gold? How does gold compare with Australian property, shares and cash? And with prices already surging, could gold still have much further to run? Plus, we explore what a gold bar is actually worth, how everyday Australians can invest in physical gold, and take a look inside the world of private gold vaulting. A fascinating conversation about one of the world's oldest assets and the Australian businesses helping power the modern gold economy. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Inside Australia's $38 Billion Gold Empire
07:00 - Physical Gold vs Gold ETFs: How Does Investing Work?
13:06 - Why Gold Holds Its Value (and Is Bitcoin Digital Gold?)
24:31 - Gold vs Property, Inflation and How to Buy Gold LINKS ABC Bullion: https://www.abcbullion.com/ ABC Bullion Insights and Market Research: https://www.abcbullion.com/insights The Contrarians: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/ **SPONSORED EPISODE** This episode is proudly sponsored by ABC Bullion. Thanks to ABC Bullion and Jordan Eliseo for supporting The Contrarians and helping us keep our content free. Thanks for listening! Follow The Contrarians on LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok.
Is Anthropic's IPO Dead? Jensen Honeypot Scandal, Atlassian Share Price Crash and we speak with Tech Legend Sam Kroonenburg about his $2 Billion Exit and Starting Again
It's another massive week in tech, and Adam and Adir have plenty to get stuck into. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is facing some uncomfortable questions following reports of a relationship with a suspected Chinese …
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It's another massive week in tech, and Adam and Adir have plenty to get stuck into.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is facing some uncomfortable questions following reports of a relationship with a suspected Chinese intelligence asset. Could the controversy threaten his position at one of the world's most valuable companies?
Meanwhile, the AI boom is showing signs of slowing down. Spending growth is flattening, Apple is reportedly tightening its AI budgets, and investors are getting nervous about Anthropic's enormous potential IPO valuation. The boys debate whether AI companies can keep spending at this pace, and whether AI agents are actually worth all the hype.
There's also a look at Atlassian's latest results, where some surprisingly strong numbers weren't enough to stop the share price taking a beating.
Then, they're joined by Sam Kroonenburg, the Australian entrepreneur who co-founded A Cloud Guru and sold it for more than US$2 billion at just about the perfect time.
Sam shares how he knew when to sell, why taking money off the table early was one of his smartest decisions, and what he's learned building his next business, AI advertising platform Cuttable.
Plus, Adir has a bone to pick with the Bureau of Meteorology, the boys revisit the troubles facing Australia's department stores, and Will shares what's been happening behind the scenes as The Contrarians grows on YouTube.
CHAPTERS
01:46 - Jensen Huang's Nvidia controversy and the future of the AI boom
09:08 - Adir takes on the Bureau of Meteorology
15:26 - The Contrarians' YouTube growth and the business of podcasting
29:27 - AI spending slows and the hype around AI agents
43:10 - Anthropic's trillion-dollar IPO problem
54:31 - Atlassian's surprising results and share price crash
01:03:01 - Sam Kroonenburg on his $2 billion exit, Cuttable and building startupsLINKS
Sam Kroonenburg's AI advertising platform Cuttable:
https://www.cuttable.com/The Contrarians:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/OUR PARTNERS
BlueRock – Business and wealth advice:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrarians/Acquire Intelligence – AI, automation and outsourcing:
https://acquire.ai/contrariansMastercard – Small business payments and resources:
https://www.mastercard.com/au/en/business/industry-segment/small-medium-business.htmlAura Group – Private credit:
https://aura.co/Thanks for listening! Follow The Contrarians on LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok.
WTF Just Happened at Heidi Health and Safety Culture Death March
It's been a brutal week for Australia's tech sector. Just days after Canva announced a major restructure affecting 22% of its workforce, AI healthcare unicorn Heidi Health has revealed plans to cut 18% of its …
Shownotes
It's been a brutal week for Australia's tech sector. Just days after Canva announced a major restructure affecting 22% of its workforce, AI healthcare unicorn Heidi Health has revealed plans to cut 18% of its staff, following the departure of two co-founders. All this shortly after a major capital raise that valued the business at more than $1 billion. Adam and Adir unpack what's going wrong at Australia's most celebrated startups, whether the venture capital industry encouraged unsustainable growth, and why mass redundancies can permanently damage the relationship between companies and their employees. They also revisit Canva's controversial return-to-office changes, debate whether founders should be blamed for overhiring, and question whether the optimism surrounding Australia's tech unicorns is finally coming back to earth. Plus, SafetyCulture, now known as Mitti, has reported slowing growth and another substantial loss. With a previous valuation of $2.4 billion, can the business make the numbers stack up? CHAPTERS 01:26 - Heidi Health's shock layoffs and the Australian tech reckoning 06:46 - Blackbird, startup valuations and the cost of overhiring 19:37 - Canva's redundancies, return-to-office controversy and employee trust 27:15 - SafetyCulture's $2.4 billion valuation problem Thanks for listening!
Canva Catastrophe: Revenue Flat and Thousands Axed
Canva has announced the biggest organisational shake-up in its history, with 1,271 people, or 22% of its global workforce, affected by redundancies, role changes and relocations. It comes after a brutal year …
Shownotes
Canva has announced the biggest organisational shake-up in its history, with 1,271 people, or 22% of its global workforce, affected by redundancies, role changes and relocations.
It comes after a brutal year for Australia's biggest private technology company. Reported internal figures suggest Canva's annualised revenue has stalled around US$3.7 billion while monthly active users have fallen by 12 million year-on-year, as increasingly powerful AI tools challenge its core design business.
Adam and Adir jump on for an emergency episode to unpack what the restructure really means, why Adir thinks this could be a move for survival rather than simple cost-cutting, and how AI has changed the economics of Canva's famous freemium model.
They also discuss what a major Canva downturn could mean for Australia's technology ecosystem, the dilemma facing employees holding private Canva stock, whether the company missed its "golden window", and what Mel Perkins and Cliff Obrecht need to do next.
CHAPTERS
00:08 - Canva's 22% Workforce Overhaul
10:09 - Is Canva Fighting for Survival?
20:01 - Canva's Golden Window and What Comes NextJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/OpenAI Funding Catastrophe, Australia’s Retail Apocalypse, Young Rich List Fail and Can Google Survive AI?
Could Australian interest rates really hit 6%? Adam and Adir look at the renewed inflation problem, why retailers are feeling the squeeze and what the trouble at David Jones says about the Australian economy …
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Could Australian interest rates really hit 6%? Adam and Adir look at the renewed inflation problem, why retailers are feeling the squeeze and what the trouble at David Jones says about the Australian economy.
Then they pull apart the 2026 AFR Young Rich List, questioning the valuations behind some of Australia's biggest young fortunes, from Canva and Firmus to Immutable and Nscale.
Plus, OpenAI falls well short of its latest fundraising target, Anthropic's economics come under the microscope again, and Adam and Adir debate whether AI represents a genuine threat to Google's extraordinary search business.
CHAPTERS
01:26 - Victoria, the Election and Muslim Vote Matters
12:14 - Could Australian Interest Rates Hit 6%?
18:52 - Eden's View From the Real Economy
23:56 - Australia's Retail Slowdown
31:53 - David Jones on the Brink
39:26 - The 2026 Young Rich List
59:00 - OpenAI's $30bn Funding Problem
01:08:41 - The Anthropic Economics Question
01:17:51 - Google Search vs AI
01:38:37 - Reddit and the AI Traffic ProblemLINKS
Mastercard:
https://www.mastercard.com/smallbusinessauAcquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrariansBlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrariansJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/Myer Kills WFH, has Netflix Jumped the Shark and the economics of Billionaire Matchmaking with Lauren Hunter
Myer is bringing its corporate staff back to the office five days a week, and Adam and Adir think it says something bigger about where the power now sits between employers and employees. They also ask what …
Shownotes
Myer is bringing its corporate staff back to the office five days a week, and Adam and Adir think it says something bigger about where the power now sits between employers and employees.
They also ask what Netflix actually is now that its explosive growth years appear to be slowing, whether its competitive advantage can survive YouTube and an increasingly crowded streaming market, and why the former FANG stock may ultimately become a very different kind of business.
Then billionaire matchmaker Lauren Hunter joins the pod to explain how she finds partners for celebrities, politicians and ultra-wealthy clients. She talks about clients with 150 non-negotiables, parents secretly hiring her for their children, screening out gold diggers, post-date feedback, $25,000 searches and the $350,000 package for billionaires.
CHAPTERS
02:21 - Myer Ends WFH and the Employer Power Shift
11:30 - Netflix's Growth Problem and the Streaming Wars
28:36 - Lauren Hunter: Billionaire MatchmakingLINKS
Mastercard:
https://www.mastercard.com/smallbusinessauAcquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrariansBlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrariansJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/Private Credit Explained: How Aura is helping close the $250bn Funding Gap
Adam and Adir sit down with Brett Craig from Aura Group to unpack what private credit actually is, why the industry exploded after the GFC and how non-bank lenders are filling a funding gap left by Australia’s …
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Adam and Adir sit down with Brett Craig from Aura Group to unpack what private credit actually is, why the industry exploded after the GFC and how non-bank lenders are filling a funding gap left by Australia’s major banks. Brett explains Aura’s “lending to lenders” model, why liquidity mismatches can force private credit funds to gate withdrawals, how invoice financing works, and why Aura even lends against sheep and cattle. They also discuss Australia’s estimated $250 billion business funding gap, the recent backlash against private credit, risk, diversification and what investors should actually look for inside these funds.
All information provided for use by Wholesale Clients and is for educational purposes only. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual investor.
Information is provided by Aura Capital Pty Ltd ABN 48 143 700 887 | AFS Licence 366230. Wholesale strategy performance since inception is 9.42% pa as at 30 September 2026 net of fees and expenses since inception date 1 August 2017.
Returns assume reinvestment of all distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and capital and income is not guaranteed. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Why Private Credit Funds Get Gated 10:55 - Why Private Credit Funds Get Into Trouble 21:39 - Choosing Lenders, Tough Markets and Investor Access Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Anthropic’s Massive IPO. Will it Sink?
Emergency pod! Anthropic has finally opened its books, giving Adam and Adir their clearest look yet at the economics behind Claude and one of the fastest-growing businesses in history. Join us on Substack for …
Shownotes
Emergency pod!
Anthropic has finally opened its books, giving Adam and Adir their clearest look yet at the economics behind Claude and one of the fastest-growing businesses in history.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
NextDC Disaster, is Canva's Comeback for Real, Airbnb Rule Change and Rich Investor Tax Shock
Adam and Adir unpack the tax shock hitting Australian venture capital and private equity, including why carried interest has historically received favourable treatment and what the government's new capital …
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Adam and Adir unpack the tax shock hitting Australian venture capital and private equity, including why carried interest has historically received favourable treatment and what the government's new capital gains rules could mean for fund managers.
They also look at France's extraordinary levels of government spending and the growing tension between generations over wealth, housing and welfare.
Then it's back to tech and business. Canva launches its own image generation model as it fights to stay relevant in the AI era, Airbnb finally cracks down on excessive checkout chores, NextDC loses more than 40% in a single day after delays to its Melbourne data centre, and Temple & Webster rallies after an update that leaves Adir even more convinced of his short thesis.
CHAPTERS
00:00 - Inside The Pod, Media and The Contrarians Live23:33 - Myeloma Australia and Adam's Family Story
27:12 - The 47% Carried Interest Tax Shock
43:48 - France, Government Spending and Generational Wealth
01:00:12 - Canva Fights Back With AI
01:09:07 - Airbnb Ends Excessive Checkout Chores
01:17:09 - NextDC Crashes 42%
01:32:46 - Temple & Webster's 31% Rally
LINKS
Myeloma Australia: https://myeloma.org.au/
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
How Adam Runs Luxury Escapes and Builds Great Teams
Adam and Will go inside the way Luxury Escapes is actually run, from the decisions Adam still personally signs off on to the systems, people and mental models behind one of Australia's biggest travel …
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Adam and Will go inside the way Luxury Escapes is actually run, from the decisions Adam still personally signs off on to the systems, people and mental models behind one of Australia's biggest travel businesses.
Adam explains why CEOs should never become blockers, why he dislikes traditional strategy days, how Luxury Escapes stays entrepreneurial with hundreds of employees, what makes a great salesperson, how he thinks about culture and when it's time to move someone on.
They also unpack Luxury Escapes' competitive advantages, its approach to brand and marketing, sustainable growth over inflated valuations, and why Adam treats mistakes very differently depending on whether someone was taking initiative or simply failed to act.
CHAPTERS
01:33 - The Schwab Method: How Adam Runs Luxury Escapes
08:32 - Why Adam Still Signs Off Every Deal
15:42 - Speed, Decisions and Never Being The Blocker
28:04 - Sales, Culture and Building High-Performance Teams
39:49 - Competitive Advantage, Growth and How Adam Thinks About MistakesLINKS
Adam recently joined Sarah Grynberg on A Life of Greatness to discuss building Luxury Escapes, taking risks and why success is about more than money:
Listen on Apple PodcastsLuxury Escapes:
https://luxuryescapes.comBlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrariansAcquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrariansBraze:
https://www.braze.com/Join us on Substack for articles, news and more:
https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/Anthropic’s $2tn Fever Dream, Firmus Tanks AI Globally, Maas' Week from Hell and is Software Dead?
Adam and Adir unpack the latest fallout from Australia’s surcharge ban, the rise of PayID and PayTo, Victoria’s new auction rules and a software developer recreating products like Photoshop with AI. Then they …
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Adam and Adir unpack the latest fallout from Australia’s surcharge ban, the rise of PayID and PayTo, Victoria’s new auction rules and a software developer recreating products like Photoshop with AI.
Then they turn to the growing cracks in the AI boom: the Firmus fallout spreading through CoreWeave and other data-centre names, MAAS Group’s brutal sell-off and aggressive buybacks, and Anthropic’s extraordinary growth, and whether a potential $2 trillion valuation can possibly be justified.
01:58 - Ticket Bots and Radiohead
07:15 - Springvale, Retail and PayID
14:12 - The Surcharge Ban
29:17 - Europe’s Biggest Companies Quiz
38:09 - AI Clones Software
44:31 - Property Density and Victoria’s New Auction Rules
53:25 - Firmus, MAAS, Anthropic and The AI Bubble
We're delighted to announce the next Contrarians Live, hosted at BlueRock!
Join us on the 8th December in Melbourne CBD for the best live pod recording in Australia. Special guests to be announced. Get your tickets now at the link below:
https://events.humanitix.com/the-contrarians-live-at-bluerock
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: The Contrarians
Soul Patts: The $18bn ASX Giant Most Australians Have Never Heard Of
Adam, Adir and Scott Middleton from Terem Capital take a deep dive into Washington H. Soul Pattinson, the $18bn ASX giant hiding in plain sight. They trace Soul Patts from its pharmacy roots through Brickworks …
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Adam, Adir and Scott Middleton from Terem Capital take a deep dive into Washington H. Soul Pattinson, the $18bn ASX giant hiding in plain sight.
They trace Soul Patts from its pharmacy roots through Brickworks, New Hope, NBN and TPG, unpack how permanent capital and patient dealmaking have compounded across generations, and examine the investment philosophy that has made the company one of Australia’s most enduring businesses.
Then they tackle the harder question: after more than a century of extraordinary results, is Soul Patts’ premium valuation still justified today?
00:08 - The Soul Patts Story
18:43 - How Soul Patts Compounds Wealth
30:10 - Is Soul Patts Too Expensive?
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Firmus’ IPO Fallout with Guest John Stensholt, Maas Smashed, Swipejobs’ $2bn IPO and Melbourne Marathon Chaos
Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Melbourne Marathon weekend, the surprising decline in alcohol consumption and the latest consequences of Australia’s surcharge changes, before John Stensholt joins the show …
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Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Melbourne Marathon weekend, the surprising decline in alcohol consumption and the latest consequences of Australia’s surcharge changes, before John Stensholt joins the show to break down the spectacular collapse of Firmus’ planned ASX float.
They dig into what went wrong with the $44 billion IPO, what it means for Oliver Curtis and MAAS Group, and where the data-centre story goes from here, before turning to Katrina Leslie’s remarkable Swipejobs story and its potential multi-billion-dollar listing.
01:34 - Melbourne Marathon Chaos
12:48 - Retail, Furniture and Property
15:40 - Is Australia Giving Up Alcohol?
19:52 - The Surcharge Ban and The ATO Backflip
25:40 - Australia’s Public Sector Productivity Problem
34:03 - John Stensholt On The Firmus IPO Collapse
59:30 - MAAS Group’s Firmus Fallout
1:05:24 - Swipejobs’ $2bn IPO Story
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Blackmagic Founder Cage Match, More Cettire Drama and is Bending Spoons the Real Deal?
Adam and Adir unpack the ugly founder and shareholder battle at Blackmagic Design, what it says about minority ownership and why a strong shareholders agreement matters. They then revisit Cettire after Dean …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack the ugly founder and shareholder battle at Blackmagic Design, what it says about minority ownership and why a strong shareholders agreement matters.
They then revisit Cettire after Dean Mintz buys another $2.7 million of shares and debate whether taking the company private could make sense, before turning to Bending Spoons’ acquisition of Miro and whether its highly leveraged “cigar butt” strategy can really create lasting value.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Firmus IPO Pulled: We go inside and explain what went wrong
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Jim’s Inflation Catastrophe, Credit Card Surcharge Backlash, Codan Goes Parabolic, Iran’s Negotiation Fail, Joby Takes Off and Mike’s Apology
Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Australia’s credit-card surcharge changes, why retailers and consumers may both end up worse off, and whether the policy risks adding more inflationary pressure. Mike …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Australia’s credit-card surcharge changes, why retailers and consumers may both end up worse off, and whether the policy risks adding more inflationary pressure. Mike apologises for GTAVI misinformation, discussing Codan’s extraordinary growth and valuation, and dig into Joby Aviation, autonomous aircraft and the future of flying taxis.
00:00 - Queenstown, Tourism and GTA 6
20:45 - Credit Card Surcharges and Retail
54:02 - Iran, Energy and Geopolitics
1:04:21 - Australia’s Biggest Tech Businesses
1:09:35 - Codan’s Incredible Run
1:17:43 - Joby, Flying Taxis and The Future Of Flight
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Retail Disaster, Firmus Goes to the Moon (Allegedly) and is Private Equity’s Golden Run Ending?
Adam and Adir unpack the brutal sell-off across Australian retail, where names like JB Hi-Fi, Nick Scali, Temple & Webster and Myer sit in the cycle, and whether the downturn is starting to create long-term …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack the brutal sell-off across Australian retail, where names like JB Hi-Fi, Nick Scali, Temple & Webster and Myer sit in the cycle, and whether the downturn is starting to create long-term bargains. They also dig into Mass Group’s surge, Firmus’ extraordinary valuation trajectory and the risks around the data-centre boom, before turning to private equity and why the industry is suddenly struggling to find exits. 00:00 - Retail Gets Crushed 11:46 - Mass Group and Firmus 23:58 - Private Equity Runs Out Of Exits Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
AI Money Furnace, Lottery Deep Dive, Fair Work Loses the Plot and AirTree Fight Goes Public
Adam and Adir dig into whether businesses are actually generating enough economic value from AI to justify the enormous amount being spent on it, before unpacking a controversial Fair Work ruling involving an …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir dig into whether businesses are actually generating enough economic value from AI to justify the enormous amount being spent on it, before unpacking a controversial Fair Work ruling involving an Uber driver. They also take a deep dive into The Lottery Corporation’s monopoly economics, digital migration and valuation, before turning to the increasingly public intrigue around AirTree, Eucalyptus and the AFR.
00:00 - Intro and The Grand Final Public Holiday
05:15 - Coles, Finish and Dishwasher Tablet Pricing
12:28 - The Cost Of Eating Around The World
20:10 - Is AI Actually Creating Economic Value?
41:33 - Uber and The Fair Work Commission
51:20 - The Lottery Corporation Deep Dive
1:20:39 - AirTree, Eucalyptus and The AFR
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Meta Comes Back, JB Hi-Fi Gets Cheap, and Hello World’s $135m Acquisition Gets Weird
Adam and Adir dig into Meta’s latest AI push and the risks of handing autonomous agents access to your personal data, before turning to JB Hi-Fi’s battered share price and whether GTA 6 can really move the …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir dig into Meta’s latest AI push and the risks of handing autonomous agents access to your personal data, before turning to JB Hi-Fi’s battered share price and whether GTA 6 can really move the needle. They also unpack Hello World’s $135 million acquisition of Crown Currency Exchange, and why the size, structure and disclosure around the deal raises so many questions.
Thank you to Visa for sponsoring today's episode. Find out more about how to turn business spend into better benefits with Visa here.
00:00 - Meta and The AI Race
18:55 - JB Hi-Fi, GTA 6 and Consumer Spending
28:54 - Hello World’s $135m Crown Currency Acquisition
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Commercial Property Cycle, Retail’s Comeback, Aged Care and Finding Value Where Nobody’s Looking: with Commercial Property Gun, Tim Slattery
Tim Slattery joins Adam and Adir to unpack his journey from becoming an ASX CEO at around 30 to selling APN Property Group to Dexus for more than $300 million and starting again with ASA Real Estate Partners …
Shownotes
Tim Slattery joins Adam and Adir to unpack his journey from becoming an ASX CEO at around 30 to selling APN Property Group to Dexus for more than $300 million and starting again with ASA Real Estate Partners. They dig into commercial property cycles, industrial and office markets, why shopping centres survived the e-commerce threat, and the unloved sectors, including specialised care property, where Tim sees opportunity.
This episode was part of a paid partnership with ASA Real Estate Partners. We thank them for supporting the pod and keeping all of our content free.https://www.asarep.com/Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Firmus Goes to the Moon, Anthropic’s Profit Problem, Founder Tax Chaos, Breakthrough Victoria Death March and Xero's Year from Hell
Adam and Adir unpack Anthropic’s unusual approach to profitability, the extraordinary valuation being floated for Firmus and what could eventually unwind the economics of the AI boom. They also dig into …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack Anthropic’s unusual approach to profitability, the extraordinary valuation being floated for Firmus and what could eventually unwind the economics of the AI boom. They also dig into Australia’s founder tax changes, Breakthrough Victoria and the National Reconstruction Fund, before turning to Xero’s executive pay fight, US strategy and brutal share-price decline.
00:00 - Adir's Gaming Sesh
12:31 - The US Open and The Focus of Winners
16:09 - Victoria’s Pothole Crisis
22:46 - Anthropic’s Economics and The AI Bubble
38:03 - Firmus and The $50bn Valuation
44:36 - Australia’s Founder Tax Changes
1:02:29 - Breakthrough Victoria and The National Reconstruction Fund
1:14:11 - Xero’s Pay Revolt and Strategy Problem
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Ask Us Anything: How Do We Get Real People Into Politics? + When Is It Time To Pivot? (with Chris Judd)
Live from The Commons in Cremorne, Adam and Adir are joined by Chris Judd for a special Ask Us Anything episode.This week:How do we attract more capable people into politics?What would actually improve …
Shownotes
Live from The Commons in Cremorne, Adam and Adir are joined by Chris Judd for a special Ask Us Anything episode.
This week:
- How do we attract more capable people into politics?
- What would actually improve productivity in Australia?
- When should founders, investors and operators pivot, hold course or walk away?
Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
HMC Capital Comeback Tour and AFG Fights Housing Slump: With Star Fund Manager Luke Laretive
Luke Laretive joins Adam and Adir to unpack how Seneca approaches active investing, why its small-cap fund uses an unusually aligned fee structure, and where he still sees opportunities in an increasingly …
Shownotes
Luke Laretive joins Adam and Adir to unpack how Seneca approaches active investing, why its small-cap fund uses an unusually aligned fee structure, and where he still sees opportunities in an increasingly passive market.
They dig into Australian Finance Group’s mortgage and lending business, HMC Capital’s brutal repricing, HealthCo and Healthscope, DigiCo, private credit and why the market may be overlooking some very cheap assets.
00:00 - Luke Laretive and Seneca
16:05 - AFG Deep Dive
32:14 - HMC Capital Deep Dive
40:11 - HealthCo, DigiCo and Private Credit
This episode was part of a paid partnership with Seneca Financial Solutions. We thank them for supporting the pod and keeping all of our content free.
Visit https://senecafs.com.au/ to learn more.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Live Show, Macro Investing King Chris Judd joins, Apple’s $3,500 Foldable Bet, Australia’s Housing Mess, Cogstate and the Firmus Moneyshot
Adam and Adir record live from The Commons in Cremorne, covering Australia’s worsening housing and rent crisis, Apple’s rumoured folding iPhone, the company’s pricing power, and whether AI’s frontier model …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir record live from The Commons in Cremorne, covering Australia’s worsening housing and rent crisis, Apple’s rumoured folding iPhone, the company’s pricing power, and whether AI’s frontier model economics can survive customers moving to cheaper alternatives. Chris Judd then joins to talk markets, uncertainty, inflation, US debt, Cogstate, MAAS Group, Firmus, data centres, founder-led investing and why the best returns often come from backing people prepared to think differently.
00:00 - Live From The Commons
03:07 - Australia’s Housing and Rent Crisis
19:02 - Apple’s Folding iPhone
30:30 - AI Models and Data Centres
35:10 - Chris Judd Joins Pod
46:31 - Chris Judd’s Macro View5
8:18 - Cogstate
1:03:37 - MAAS Group and Firmus
1:16:02 - Founder-Led Investing
A big thank you to the team at The Commons for hosting our first live episode of the pod (or something like that). You can link to their website here: https://www.thecommons.com.au/
Link to Cerutty Macro Fund: https://ceruttymacrofund.com.au/
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Is Yo-Chi our next Decacorn, AI Comes for the Lawyers and should CEOs also take Board Seats
Adam and Adir debate whether founders and senior executives should be allowed to sit on external boards while running a business, before turning to the coming pressure on big law fees as AI starts breaking the …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir debate whether founders and senior executives should be allowed to sit on external boards while running a business, before turning to the coming pressure on big law fees as AI starts breaking the traditional leverage model. They also unpack Yo-Chi’s extraordinary rise, its reported billion-dollar-plus valuation, global expansion plans, store economics, and why timing, product and execution can turn a good retail concept into a monster business.
01:05 - The CEO Board Seat Debate
09:26 - AI Comes For Big Law
24:29 - Yo-Chi’s $2bn Valuation
29:54 - Why Yo-Chi Worked
38:55 - Yo-Chi’s Global Upside
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Expert360 Heartbreak, CTM is Back, Iran Stalemate gets less Stale and The Athlete Rich List
Adam and Adir unpack Expert360’s painful sale, why founders need to think carefully about golden windows, and what CTM’s return to the ASX says about survival, short sellers and investor risk. They also dig …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack Expert360’s painful sale, why founders need to think carefully about golden windows, and what CTM’s return to the ASX says about survival, short sellers and investor risk. They also dig into Iran’s blockade problem, student politics at Monash, Alastair Clarkson’s messy North Melbourne exit, and the athlete rich list quiz that turns into a bigger conversation about brand, equity and celebrity power.
00:00 - Intro
12:20 - Alistair Clarkson & North Melbourne
25:08 - Student Politics at Monash
36:17 - The Athlete Rich List Quiz
50:30 - Iran and the Straight of Hormuz
1:02:30 - Expert360
1:16:04 - CTMJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Retail Deep Dive: Kogan shows the money and Cettire close to the edge
Australia’s retail stocks are getting smashed, but Adam and Adir think the sell-off could finally be creating opportunities in businesses like JB Hi-Fi, Kogan and Koala. Meanwhile, Cettire has lost 95% of its …
Shownotes
Australia’s retail stocks are getting smashed, but Adam and Adir think the sell-off could finally be creating opportunities in businesses like JB Hi-Fi, Kogan and Koala.
Meanwhile, Cettire has lost 95% of its value in two years and its latest results raise even more questions about how long the luxury retailer can keep going.
00:00 Australian Retail Stocks Are Getting Smashed
12:41 Kogan, Temple & Webster and Koala
16:40 Cettire’s Collapse & The Art of Contrarian InvestingJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
Canva’s Investor Dumpster Fire, Xero’s Shareholder Smackdown, CTM’s Lifesasver Deal and GTA's $3.5bn Bet
Adam and Adir unpack the investor fight building around Canva, AirTree and the painful question of when early backers should finally get liquidity. They also dig into Xero’s shareholder revolt, Corporate Travel …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack the investor fight building around Canva, AirTree and the painful question of when early backers should finally get liquidity. They also dig into Xero’s shareholder revolt, Corporate Travel Management’s surprise rescue deal, Zoox’s lost upside, the return of hardware startups, and why Disney might be one of the rare businesses with almost every major competitive power.
00:00 - Defcon Merch and Tansu’s First Week
07:14 - Zoox
16:31 - Vanguard Smart Glasses
23:05 - Leo Esaki's Five Don'ts
27:47 - Disney's Hidden Powers
35:53 - GTA VI
43:13 - Eureka Pet Co.
48:20 - Victoria's Crime Problem
58:04 - Canva
1:13:19 - Xero's Shareholder Revolt
1:20:40 - CTMThe first 20 listeners to use code "TCfirst20" at Tanssu.com will redeem the offer mentioned in this week's episode: https://www.tanssu.com/discount/TCfirst20. Add “The Set” to your cart in any colour. Then at checkout, the code will remove the cost of the tote.
Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
OpenAI Burns Billions, Temple & Webster Gets Crushed
Adam and Adir unpack the strange economics of AI, with OpenAI burning billions, Anthropic claiming explosive growth, and investors still trying to work out where the real profits will come from. They also dig …
Shownotes
Adam and Adir unpack the strange economics of AI, with OpenAI burning billions, Anthropic claiming explosive growth, and investors still trying to work out where the real profits will come from. They also dig into Temple & Webster’s brutal share price collapse, the limits of its retail model, and why even strong operators can struggle inside a brutally hard business.
00:00 - OpenAI, Anthropic and The AI Money Problem
14:39 - Temple & Webster Gets WhackedJoin us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/
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