The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
- Folgen
- 350
- Erscheint
- wöchentlich
- Letzte Folge
- 19. Okt. 2026
Über den Podcast
The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it. Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa's devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger. Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air. For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly. (Formerly "Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)
Folgen 350
Brazilianization
Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil …
Shownotes
Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil from the other direction. The wealthy world didn’t pull the laggards forward; it declined to meet them. A shrinking middle class, patrimonial politics, collapsing trust, gated condominiums and open sewers alongside WhatsApp. This is Brazilianization, and Hochuli joins from São Paulo days after Lula’s loss in the first round to explain what it looks like from inside. A bleak conversation, honestly held - and one that argues the center didn’t get stolen from. It ran out of things to say.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro
01:45 Alex Journey to Brazil
04:05 Election Shock and Polls
06:57 Why Voters Want Change
10:07 Lula Coalition and Constraints
12:54 Security and Cost of Living
15:28 Brazil in Regional Context
19:18 Scandals and Hyper Online Politics
23:02 Where Did the Left Go
24:03 Work Precarity and New Aspirations
28:50 Gambling Faith and Get Rich Culture
32:04 Evangelical Surge Explained
34:51 Urban Insecurity and Community
36:20 Religion Shifts Politics Right
37:18 Brazilianization Goes Global
38:44 Modernization Ends and Decay
43:48 Flexibility Era Revisited
45:45 China as an Exception
50:13 US China and Brazil Voice
53:46 Why Brazil Lacks a Project
57:10 Identity Crisis and Interior Boom
59:38 Hope Interregnum and Rightward Energy
01:03:21 Closing Anecdotes and Farewell
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Ethiopia's New War
Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? …
Shownotes
Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.
We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.
General Context:
Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.
Modern Conflict Timeline:
- 1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
- 1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
- 2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
- 2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
- 2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia
(03:33) - Development Model Shift
(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC
(09:13) - New War Regional Risks
(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF
(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam
(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter
(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere
(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained
(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones
(38:07) - What Happens Next
(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Circular Financing
Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless …
Shownotes
Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters
(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags
(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership
(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom
(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears
(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection
(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter
(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe
(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall
(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History
(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt
(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk
(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole
(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules
(35:03) - Universities Under Strain
(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play
(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation
(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players
(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash
(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer
(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Rubio Makin Moves
Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind …
Shownotes
Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Podcast Welcome
(00:44) - Recording In Amazon
(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima
(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia
(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop
(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed
(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal
(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move
(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet
(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region
(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox
(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing
(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves
(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region
(36:58) - Security As A Pretext
(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint
(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0
(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model
(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission
(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands
(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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The Sand Mafias
People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a …
Shownotes
People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro!
(01:20) - Jacob Meets Expert
(02:26) - Why Sand Matters
(04:08) - Which Sand Works
(05:45) - Where Demand Explodes
(09:05) - Scarcity And Prices
(12:02) - Dubai Imports Sand
(13:32) - Greenland Sand Boom
(19:04) - Africa And Mekong Mining
(23:36) - Alternatives And Recycling
(27:18) - Singapore Land Reclamation
(34:13) - Why Study Sand
(36:08) - Policy And Labor Dilemmas
(43:06) - Wrap Up And Takeaways
(46:50) - Outro And Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Mette Bendixon - https://www.mettebendixen.com/
Time Is Running Out For Sand (Nature) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02042-4
Reddit Thread - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1usi0ze/what_is_a_multibillion_dollar_industry_that_the/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Rabbit Season, Duck Season
Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country …
Shownotes
Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(00:10) - Meet Michael Every
(02:39) - Why This Debate
(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo
(06:07) - Every on Strategy
(10:15) - Canada EU China Options
(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain
(21:44) - Defense Reality Check
(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia
(31:07) - US Security Red Lines
(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada
(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy
(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback
(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China
(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft
(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense
(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach
(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance
(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran
(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back
(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools
(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System
(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps
(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance
(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US
(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow
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Referenced in the Show:
Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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The $10 Trillion Ocean
The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages …
Shownotes
The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives.
Do we want richer world or a better one?
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now
(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained
(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability
(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing
(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data
(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured
(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype
(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines
(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño
(34:31) - Warming World Impacts
(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs
(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña
(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained
(42:32) - Trillions in Damages
(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods
(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds
(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook
(01:05:42) - Closing and Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Boil the Frog
Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of …
Shownotes
Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:21) - Past Episode Reflections
(00:49) - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements
(01:58) - Luke Returns to the Show
(02:24) - Why Everything Feels Faster
(03:52) - Bessent and Bond Buybacks
(08:11) - True Interest Expense Alarm
(15:00) - Is It a Crisis Yet
(20:38) - Crisis Symptoms and Options
(26:54) - Japan Treasury Selling Fears
(29:06) - Allies Follow China Playbook
(34:01) - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act
(36:07) - No Silver Bullet
(36:48) - Inflation Over Bonds
(38:39) - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge
(39:09) - No Currency Alternative
(40:44) - China Gold Yuan System
(43:33) - Gold as Neutral Reserve
(48:31) - Multipolar Reserve Trap
(50:32) - Zugzwang and Supply Chains
(55:30) - Back to Gold Energy Link
(01:01:08) - AI Boom Then Bust
(01:04:00) - White Collar Disruption
(01:10:37) - Closing Thoughts and Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Forest For The Trees - https://fftt-llc.com/about/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Pulped
AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went …
Shownotes
AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Episode setup and guest intro
(01:22) - Mic check and welcome
(02:01) - Viral post and lawsuit context
(04:05) - Who is Charlie Becker
(10:40) - Amazon warehouse mystery
(13:02) - Which books are vanishing
(16:28) - FBA arbitrage and pulping
(18:53) - Amazon irony and AI layer
(22:11) - ISBN gap and metadata tool
(26:12) - Missing middle and preservation risk
(28:36) - Used Bookstore Churn Myth
(29:27) - Why Obscure Books Matter
(30:33) - AI Is Not Retrieval
(32:30) - Cookbook Chef Metaphor
(33:51) - Smaller Models Personal Agents
(34:38) - Houston Bookstore Renaissance
(37:31) - Book Crawl Themed Shops
(40:00) - Foreign Language Treasure Troves
(46:06) - Estate Libraries Rare Finds
(47:02) - Mystery Bulk Orders Explained
(51:22) - Optimism And Preservation Tool
(54:44) - Internet Slop Back To Bookstores
(57:22) - Closing Thanks And Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Cooler Heads Are Not Prevailing
Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new …
Shownotes
Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new legal tools - including a forgotten 1930 law now aimed at Canada - and companies have stopped investing because they can't guess what comes next :/ Also, Washington has quietly bought stakes in 37 companies, with no rules and almost no transparency around any of it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(00:27) - Why Tariffs Matter Now
(02:18) - Rapid Fire Tariff Tools
(03:29) - Supreme Court Fallout
(05:44) - Graham Sanctions Act
(10:22) - Smoot Hawley Meets USMCA
(11:35) - Canada Tariff Mechanics
(15:49) - What Trump Wants
(21:35) - USMCA Future Scenarios
(23:47) - After Trump Trade Path
(25:30) - Next President Tariff Reset
(28:21) - Trade Policy Inflection
(29:25) - Biden vs Trump Tariffs
(30:45) - China Tariffs Reality
(33:08) - Rules of Origin Loopholes
(35:52) - Democrats China Debate
(37:22) - Industrial Policy Needed
(39:25) - Drones Case Study
(44:14) - Manufacturing Culture Shift
(48:29) - Investment Needs Certainty
(50:41) - Government Equity Stakes
(52:13) - Sovereign Wealth Concerns
(56:03) - Wrap Up and Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Lessons Learned - Geopolitical Cousins
Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their …
Shownotes
Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.
Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap.
Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two
(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format
(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments
(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test
(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree
(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War
(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics
(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage
(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate
(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons
(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform
(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink
(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice
(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts
(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics
(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs
(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale
(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist
(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion
(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable
(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology
(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained
(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective
(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser
(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart
(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion
(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism
(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans
(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty
(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home
(01:06:18) - Can Places Change
(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory
(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis
(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset
(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis
(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains
(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question
(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken) - Geopolitical Cousins
Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three …
Shownotes
Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?
The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(02:05) - Reunion at the Table
(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format
(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization
(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout
(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash
(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate
(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn
(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check
(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear
(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios
(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame
(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves
(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke
(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate
(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union
(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks
(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession
(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear
(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum
(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario
(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion
(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints
(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash
(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster
(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons
(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation
(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate
(01:09:31) - End of Nation State
(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity
(01:12:04) - Broken World of More
(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse
(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand
(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply
(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal
(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions
(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown
(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Geography is Destiny: China, The Global South, & Energy
Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees …
Shownotes
Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.
*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos
(02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions
(03:33) - Meet Eric Olander
(05:32) - China’s Transformation Story
(07:54) - Global South Views of China
(10:26) - China as Daily Operating System
(13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained
(14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia
(17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US
(20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint
(21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes
(23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era
(28:19) - Japan’s Regional Influence
(30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance
(32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift
(33:05) - South China Sea Alarm
(33:28) - Iran War Global South
(38:37) - China Gains and Risks
(40:46) - No Alliance Expectations
(43:51) - ICBM Test Explained
(47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists
(50:35) - People to People Breakdown
(54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window
(58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale
(59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mentioned in this episode:
Check Out Future Hindsight!
If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/
Why Is China Bad at Soccer?
Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy …
Shownotes
Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up
(02:40) - Meet Chris Branch
(03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different
(05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics
(07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries
(10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans
(14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team
(15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America
(17:49) - Why MLS Struggles
(21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development
(29:22) - Women’s Soccer and Global Gaps
(33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga
(35:29) - Red Card Controversy
(36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma
(37:37) - Play Anyway Debate
(42:22) - Sports as Common Ground
(44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom
(56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future
(01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:
The Pulse - https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Mentioned in this episode:
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
Shipping for Dummies
Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of …
Shownotes
Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer
(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies
(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works
(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed
(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline
(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole
(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive
(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions
(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags
(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance
(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation
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Referenced in the Show:
Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyer
Website: www.vieresearch.com
Box book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819
Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
Mentioned in this episode:
Check out Marketplace Morning Report!
If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
Frontlines: Ukraine, Iran, oil markets, and what the World Cup reveals about global politics
Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging …
Shownotes
Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.
Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.
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Referenced in the Show:
Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Is The War Over?
Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief …
Shownotes
Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance
(03:49) - Is the War Over
(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War
(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran
(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility
(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate
(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock
(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition
(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics
(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception
(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook
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Referenced in the Show:
Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/
Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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The Cartel Math Isn't Mathing
Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the …
Shownotes
Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro and Framing
(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez
(02:44) - Victor Background and Career
(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption
(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism
(10:25) - Morena and Military Power
(15:29) - Future of Militarization
(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities
(22:26) - Will the US Intervene
(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout
(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies
(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification
(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation
(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks
(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong
(54:24) - Closing and Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?
ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Crosspost: Frontlines "Hormuz to AI"
You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from …
Shownotes
You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag.
Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Who Killed the Florida Orange?
Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon …
Shownotes
Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.
Alex's article below!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update
(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon
(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics
(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse
(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm
(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus
(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate
(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida
(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton
(24:25) - Oranges Through History
(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic
(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida
(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom
(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice
(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass
(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple
(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks
(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out
(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation
(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials
(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide
(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell
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Referenced in the Show:
Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Are the Cartels Winning?
Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The …
Shownotes
Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:33) - Name Pronunciation
(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved
(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained
(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality
(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy
(14:28) - US Role and Intervention
(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority
(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views
(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk
(27:11) - US Role In Mexico
(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate
(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions
(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose
(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs
(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits
(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like
(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat
(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting
(53:01) - Closing And Links
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Referenced in the Show:
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Static, Not Strategic
Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance …
Shownotes
Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:08) - Sim is Back
(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?
(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits
(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution
(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch
(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage
(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative
(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options
(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy
(26:15) - NATO Threat Question
(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline
(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO
(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality
(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative
(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate
(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five
(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck
(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic
(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran
(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge
(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro
--
Sim's Work:
AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/
Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Warp Speed for Everything
Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what …
Shownotes
Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introooo
(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons
(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium
(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think
(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations
(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability
(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery
(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible
(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too
(37:43) - China Fears Volatility
(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast
(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race
(42:05) - AI Slips Control
(43:09) - Energy Limits Return
(44:52) - Automation And Work
(47:22) - All Swans Black
(52:36) - Politics Need New Story
(57:50) - Cities For New Economy
(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government
(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox
(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Gross Diplomacy
Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a …
Shownotes
Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks
(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline
(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy
(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy
(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense
(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia
(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge
(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup
(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox
(26:38) - Instability Origins
(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs
(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo
(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy
(36:57) - US China Reality Check
(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers
(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism
(49:52) - No Offers From Washington
(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void
(56:44) - Closing and Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Fertilizer 101
Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the …
Shownotes
Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:15) - War Context and Stakes
(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three
(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters
(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage
(06:12) - Why US Lags Production
(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained
(10:47) - China and State Strategy
(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve
(16:25) - Investment Reality Check
(19:00) - Food Security Imperative
(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing
(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain
(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps
(26:44) - Survey Skepticism
(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots
(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts
(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles
(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply
(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia
(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three
(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits
(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality
(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers
(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits
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Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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The Off Ramp Is Right Now
Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher …
Shownotes
Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:36) - Prewar Oil Market Setup
(02:24) - War Impact and Price Paths
(05:15) - Ceasefire Doubts and Escalation
(09:02) - Markets vs Reality Gap
(10:32) - Supply Now Product Later
(12:47) - Trump Strategy and Nuclear Endgame
(16:03) - Drill Baby Drill Reality Check
(18:53) - Can Americas Output Replace Gulf
(20:57) - Energy Hegemony and China Angle
(25:18) - Allies Drift and US Quandary
(27:18) - Biofuels Reality Check
(29:38) - War Changes Everything
(31:13) - New Supply Hunt Worldwide
(32:59) - Policy Reversals for Security
(39:31) - Pipelines LNG and Takeaway
(40:38) - Global Plays Beyond Canada
(42:36) - 2030s Demand vs Efficiency
(46:19) - Portfolio Positioning in Energy
(49:48) - Risks That Break the Thesis
(51:39) - Closing and Sign Off
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Referenced in the Show:
Josef's Site - https://schachterenergyreport.ca/
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
The View From Delhi
Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians …
Shownotes
Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:57) - Global Economy Worries
(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja
(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained
(03:26) - Why Dubai Matters
(04:14) - India View on War
(06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home
(08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment
(11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour
(12:51) - What Can India Do
(13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality
(15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA
(18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust
(24:58) - China Perception and Border
(27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood
(28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight
(29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War
(30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge
(32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington
(34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage
(37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons
(39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus
(42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties
(44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome
(49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity
(54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff
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Referenced in the Show:
Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Soft Power is Underrated
Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss …
Shownotes
Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question
(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps
(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation
(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios
(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock
(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real
(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes
(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift
(33:32) - China Soft Power Play
(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes
(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery
(37:02) - What To Do With 401k
(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet
(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes
(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium
(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy
(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate
(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes
01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro
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Referenced in the Show:
Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
Renegade Scottish Economics
Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs …
Shownotes
Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome And Setup
(01:30) - Why Scotland Now
(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins
(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy
(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency
(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund
(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables
(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind
(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills
(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps
(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs
(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization
(31:20) - Searching For Analogies
(34:19) - Ireland And Independence
(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits
(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset
(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power
(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate
(46:41) -Future Growth Model
(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly
(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision
(53:56) - Closing
--
Referenced in the Show:
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
Firepower Is Not a Strategy
Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains …
Shownotes
Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate.
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Timestamps:
(00:27) - Why No US Attack
(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage
(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk
(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction
(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic
(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout
(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over
(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy
(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves
(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping
(15:06) - South Pars Escalation
(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage
(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken
(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting
(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy
(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock
(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe
--
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
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