The Minsk Dialogue Rule

In this episode, Alisiya Ivanova is joined by Johnny Melikyan, Senior Research Fellow at the Orbeli Center in Yerevan. They discuss the role experts play in shaping Armenia’s foreign policy, why Yerevan is spreading its bets across many partners, why peace with Azerbaijan remains unfinished, and whether small states will still have room to manoeuvre between great powers.

(00:00) Introduction

(01:20) How working at a think tank makes Johnny a “half-diplomat”

(11:12) The end of Russia’s monopoly in the South Caucasus

(18:13) How is Armenia diversifying its arms supplies?

(19:49) Yerevan’s choices on the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO

(23:50) Railways, TRIPP and a possible bigger deal with Moscow

(29:42) Why isn’t Baku ready for a functional peace?

(32:32) Georgia and “de facto” regional cooperation

(40:08) Will great powers let small states keep up their balancing act?

(44:30) Conclusion

In this episode, Alisiya Ivanova is joined by Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, Armenia. They talk about how the end of Russia's security monopoly reshaped the South Caucasus, why Armenia is moving from one myth of security to another, the state of "no war, no peace" with Azerbaijan after the Washington deal, why Yerevan now sees "two Bakus", and what it takes for a small state to continue a balancing act in a world that has not yet agreed its new rules.

(00:00) Introduction

(01:16) Why Caucasus research had to move into the Caucasus itself

(05:36) Working across a divided region and funding independent research

(09:33) Three shocks that ended Russia's security monopoly in the South Caucasus

(18:06) "Complementarity" and security myths: what shapes Armenia's threat perceptions?

(25:26) Armenia's three main problems in the South Caucasus

(29:10) Why a treaty with Baku can't bring real peace

(39:12) Can outside players still shape the region?

(43:07) Türkiye: hard realities and diplomatic hopes

(50:26) If not Russia, who is Armenia's security guarantor?

(56:24) Why does Yerevan blame Moscow but keep the Russian military base?

(01:00:00) Why Armenia won't be another Ukraine, and the limits of turning to the EU

(01:07:48) A world without its Versailles: can small states keep up a balancing act?

(01:11:58) Conclusion

(00:00) Introduction

(01:15) Ömer's path to becoming an analyst

(02:23) What challenges and opportunities does the current security system present for Türkiye?

(06:22) Have Türkiye's top perceived threats changed in recent years?

(08:50) The roots of Türkiye's rivalry with Israel

(13:15) Is there a path forward with Israel?

(17:07) How do Türkiye's neighbours perceive its growing defence budget?

(21:50) The promise of the Mecca Pact and its role for Syria

(27:13) The US role in the Middle East after Trump

(30:38) How does Ankara see its position in NATO?

(31:18) How would Ankara approach a NATO–Russia war?

(35:42) A future security order shaped by middle powers

(39:54) Conclusion

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Yusuf’s career path and experience covering Belarusian military exercises in 2022

(03:54) Türkiye’s balanced approach to foreign policy

(11:37) What the collapse of the neoliberal order taught Türkiye

(19:22) Can the Mecca Pact ensure collective defence in the region?

(28:18) A post-American Middle East and Ankara’s nuclear deterrence

(39:03) Israel: the stand-off over Syria, reviving confidence-building measures, and the "elections triad"

(45:11) Why NATO can’t afford to alienate Türkiye

(55:51) Iran, Greece, Somalia: a wider tour of Türkiye’s threat map

(01:04:59) Can a multipolar world bring stability, and who will be the winner in it?

(01:16:05) Conclusion

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Attila’s work in academia and the Ministry of Defence, and writing fiction

(03:59) Did all those years at the Ministry make him hawkish?

(06:28) Did the post-Cold War order fail Hungary?

(11:46) What are Hungary's top threats today?

(16:10) Has Hungary now named Russia a threat?

(23:50) What is the “Ukraine threat,” and does the minority deal settle it?

(30:25) Energy security: does Hungary depend on Russia too much?

(35:10) A realistic regional order — and should a ceasefire come first?

(40:07) Conclusion

(00:00) Introduction

(01:16) Sándor's work at the HIIA, and why he leans realist

(02:58) Are most Hungarian analysts realists?

(04:07) Did the post-Cold War order fail Hungary?

(08:20) Why doesn't Budapest rank Russia as threat number one?

(12:30) Will Péter Magyar's government change its approach to Moscow?

(16:40) What exactly is the Ukraine threat for Hungary?

(21:49) Will the recently softened rhetoric towards Ukraine yield results?

(27:16) Do the Balkans still register as a threat for Budapest?

(31:19) How did Budapest and Serbia move past the migration crisis?

(34:50) What kind of security order could benefit Hungary?

(40:18) What is the Hungarian debate on regional security?

(42:14) Conclusion and next guest announcement

In our opening episode, hosts Alisiya Ivanova and Yauheni Preiherman are joined by Ambassador Thomas Greminger, Executive Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and former Secretary General of the OSCE.

They talk about whether there is still a place for cooperative security, why deterrence needs to be paired with dialogue, and why giving up is “not an option.”

(00:00) Welcome to the show.

(04:33) Is Ambassador Greminger an optimist or a pessimist?

(09:15) Lessons from an initiative that tried to prevent the war.

(13:37) Is there still a place for a Vancouver-to-Vladivostok vision?

(18:14) Why deterrence without dialogue isn’t enough.

(23:29) How small “islands of cooperation” can rebuild trust.

(28:05) Can the OSCE still play a useful role?

(33:20) Why Ambassador Greminger refuses to give up on dialogue.

(37:11) What’s missing from the way we talk about security.

(40:12) Closing remarks.