Top Traders Unplugged
- Folgen
- 619
- Erscheint
- mehrmals pro Woche
- Letzte Folge
- 14. Nov. 2026
Über den Podcast
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
Folgen 619
SI426: The Hard Part Isn't Buying Trend Following ft. Yoav Git
When markets turn against you, the strategy meant to protect your portfolio may be the last to respond. But is that a flaw in trend following, or have investors misunderstood what protection really means? With …
Shownotes
When markets turn against you, the strategy meant to protect your portfolio may be the last to respond. But is that a flaw in trend following, or have investors misunderstood what protection really means? With Niels away, Alan Dunne is joined by Yoav Git to explore the hidden trade-offs behind building a resilient CTA portfolio. From sudden market crashes to prolonged inflationary shocks, they uncover why different strategies respond to crises in fundamentally different ways, and why the timing of those responses can matter as much as the returns themselves. As they examine the role of bonds, commodities and fast versus slow trend following, a deeper question emerges: can you build a portfolio that survives not only the next crisis, but also the long periods of disappointment in between?
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why trend following can be so difficult to stick with
04:26 - November performance and the challenges facing CTAs
08:39 - Three different reasons to include CTAs in a portfolio
11:43 - What convexity actually means for investors
14:59 - The difference between return convexity and exposure convexity
20:02 - Why CTA exposure to bonds and equities behaves differently
26:19 - Where crisis protection really comes from in trend following
32:34 - How to tailor CTA allocations to different portfolio objectives
38:22 - Inflation, commodity trend and the future of AI
47:07 - Stagflation research and the limits of historical data
56:14 - Building a CTA portfolio for alpha or crisis protection
01:06:35 - Why chasing trend-following performance can backfire
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU154: Why Trend Following Isn't Crash Insurance ft. Philippe Jordan
What if one of the biggest misconceptions about trend following is what investors expect it to do? Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Philippe Jordan, President of CFM, for a conversation that …
Shownotes
What if one of the biggest misconceptions about trend following is what investors expect it to do? Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Philippe Jordan, President of CFM, for a conversation that challenges conventional thinking about systematic investing. Drawing on 35 years of experience, Philippe explains why even the most sophisticated models sometimes need human judgment, how AI is transforming the search for alpha, and why diversification matters more than any single strategy. They also explore the limits of scientific approaches to markets, the importance of investment culture, and why trend following’s greatest value may have little to do with protecting investors from the next crash.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Why trend following isn't crash insurance
01:05 - Can investment flows create lasting market edges?
02:33 - Philippe Jordan and the evolution of CFM
08:06 - What scientific models miss during extreme market crises
13:56 - Why CFM moved beyond traditional trend following
16:28 - Scientific rigor and the growing power of technology
20:51 - Why investment culture matters as much as technology
25:05 - How AI agents are transforming quantitative research
28:29 - Balancing model robustness with diversification
33:13 - The case for systematic investing beyond equity returns
42:08 - Alternative markets and the search for genuine diversification
50:48 - Knowing when human judgment should override the models
55:07 - How CFM has reinvented trend following
58:36 - What investors should realistically expect from trend following
01:02:23 - The long-term reality of trend following returns
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI425: Passive Investing Is About to Face a Real Test ft. Cem Karsan
What happens when the system holding global markets together begins to reach its breaking point? In the wake of the US midterm elections, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Cem Karsan for a conversation about …
Shownotes
What happens when the system holding global markets together begins to reach its breaking point? In the wake of the US midterm elections, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Cem Karsan for a conversation about the powerful forces converging beneath the surface of the global economy. Mounting debt, rising populism, geopolitical confrontation and the battle for control of the US dollar are creating pressures that Cem believes cannot be contained indefinitely. He lays out a provocative scenario in which a financial crisis becomes the catalyst for a historic transformation of economic policy. As the old rules begin to unravel, the conversation turns to a question every investor must confront: how do you prepare for a world that may look radically different from the one we've known?
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and the limits of passive investing
02:23 - Market developments and early-November CTA performance
05:23 - Volatility strategies, dispersion and pressure on hedge funds
08:45 - What the US midterm elections could mean for markets
12:40 - The four structural pressures threatening the US economy
19:44 - The US dollar, geopolitical power and the future of monetary policy
26:19 - Print money, buy stocks and the case for aggressive intervention
30:49 - Inflation, populism and the economic implications of AI
37:22 - The generational pendulum driving political and economic change
44:46 - Why Cem believes a crisis may be necessary for meaningful change
50:18 - Building resilient portfolios beyond the traditional 60/40 approach
59:59 - Cem's timeline for a potential financial crisis
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI25: What If Lower Volatility Is the Wrong Goal ft. Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin
Moritz Seibert is joined by QuantEdge CEO Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin to explore how one of Singapore’s most successful systematic firms approaches risk, diversification and long-term compounding. Suhaimi explains …
Shownotes
Moritz Seibert is joined by QuantEdge CEO Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin to explore how one of Singapore’s most successful systematic firms approaches risk, diversification and long-term compounding. Suhaimi explains why QuantEdge deliberately runs at a much higher volatility than most institutional portfolios, how the firm combines hundreds of independent risk premia across equities, bonds, commodities and insurance-linked securities, and why diversification should create room to take more risk rather than simply reduce it. They also discuss capacity, investor lockups, portfolio rebalancing and the lessons QuantEdge learned from surviving both the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID market shock.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Suhaimi on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:07 - How QuantEdge grew from $3 million to nearly $8 billion
07:29 - Why QuantEdge doesn’t fit neatly into the CTA bucket
09:10 - How risk premia create returns across markets
11:20 - Systematically investing in insurance-linked securities
15:18 - Building a portfolio from hundreds of independent bets
20:32 - Why QuantEdge targets around 25% volatility
25:24 - Where the firm’s returns have actually come from
27:06 - How the strategy evolved from 50 markets to nearly 300
29:34 - How much capital can QuantEdge realistically manage?
32:46 - Why the firm refuses to dilute its strategy for investors
37:11 - Why long lockups can actually protect investors
46:33 - The toughest periods in QuantEdge’s 20-year history
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI424: Can Your Portfolio Survive the AI Hangover? ft. Alan Dunne
How resilient is your portfolio if stocks and bonds fall together? Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to examine what stock–bond correlations can conceal and why owning more assets may leave investors …
Shownotes
How resilient is your portfolio if stocks and bonds fall together? Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to examine what stock–bond correlations can conceal and why owning more assets may leave investors exposed to the same risks. They explore how an AI boom could unravel, what that might mean for debt and monetary policy, and how trend following can help portfolios adapt without forecasting the next crisis. The conversation also tackles the patience diversification demands when equities race ahead, and whether greater resilience can improve long-term compounding.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Alan’s radar
15:17 - Trend following performance and manager dispersion
20:27 - The Fed’s new approach and what it means for markets
26:50 - What happens if the AI boom eventually unwinds?
35:26 - Why stock-bond correlation is more complicated than it looks
43:42 - Can trend following help diversify the bond side of 60/40?
46:23 - The economic scenarios that could hurt stocks and bonds together
49:57 - How to diversify without trying to predict the next regime
54:27 - What does portfolio resilience actually mean?
01:00:44 - Can a more resilient portfolio also deliver better returns?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Mission Value Partners on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Andrew’s path into Japan investing
05:05 - Why Andrew thinks Japan’s capitalism works better
11:32 - Manufacturing, industrial policy and the return of real investment
15:10 - Why investors may have misunderstood Japan for decades
19:56 - Is the era of financialization starting to reverse?
24:52 - AI, machine learning and Japan’s hidden advantage
31:11 - Japan versus China and two very different economic models
35:55 - Has Japan really changed or were investors simply wrong?
40:45 - What Warren Buffett saw in Japan
45:19 - Is Japan’s government debt really as dangerous as it looks?
52:40 - What happens if Japanese capital starts coming home?
56:33 - What Japan could look like ten years from now
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning
02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets
07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market
16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter
20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises
27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar
35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles
37:32 - Why today’s higher bond yields may actually be normal
45:31 - Are Treasuries losing some of their safe-haven advantage?
52:26 - Geoeconomic fragmentation and what it means for trend following
56:51 - Commodity shortages and why prices can suddenly go parabolic
01:02:12 - AI, crowded models and the shrinking half-life of alpha
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Jesper on Substack.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan
02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan
04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked
07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity
11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis
13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home?
17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics
22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster
25:46 - The yen, carry trades and the risk of a stronger currency
33:51 - Japan’s push into semiconductors, defense and industrial policy
38:18 - Energy security and Japan’s next major investment challenge
40:31 - Why Japan is taking a different approach to AI
44:18 - Could Japan outperform if the US AI boom slows?
47:16 - What the West can learn from Japan
52:35 - Corporate reform, generational change and consolidation
57:19 - Where Japanese rates could go next
58:16 - The key signals investors should watch from here
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar
06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers
11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation
17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios
21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly
28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change
31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world
41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection
47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return
52:38 - How investors end up timing liquid alternatives badly
58:12 - How institutions can make it easier to stay invested
01:02:50 - Can packaging trend with other assets solve the problem?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss …
Shownotes
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again
02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime
06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?
10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?
17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert
22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy
28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities
38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?
42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap
45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market
52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time
58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds
01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating
01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much more
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They …
Shownotes
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach
01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work
08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict
09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns
13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned
16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions
22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds
27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us
31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022
36:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs
38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital
44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns
50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult
54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie
01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details
01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager
01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look bad
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to …
Shownotes
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets
02:46 - How football results can move stock markets
07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment
11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals
16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge
21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative
26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle
30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes
35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities
37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions
39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers
44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions
47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters
52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions
55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion
58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the book
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming
00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar
03:34 - A strong year for trend following
05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?
09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries
12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically
18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?
19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth
25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system
33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market
37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock
42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets
46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead
48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next
50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?
54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns
01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Find out more about DUNN Capital.
Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention
01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500
04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world
08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following
12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike
15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive?
20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us
23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction
25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance?
27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help
29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers
32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation
44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?
50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult
55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?
58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives
01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and …
Shownotes
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Moritz on Twitter.
Follow Cory on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade
01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy
04:35 - How US power markets actually work
08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix
11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids
14:42 - What a power trader actually trades
19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops
21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather
28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders
30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like
33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader
36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable
38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy
40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory
43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders
48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders
50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power?
53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared
03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following
06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets
11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets
16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early?
21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets
25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems
29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes
35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets
40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist
42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax
50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves
54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market
58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed
01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future
01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predict
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the …
Shownotes
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market
00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt
03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history
07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market
12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability
17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset
24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries
28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?
32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born
39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds
44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying
48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income
49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity
55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve
57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break
02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds
05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends
07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?
14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies
17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets
20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far
23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?
31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?
36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy
40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling
44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading
52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following
55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same
01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Matt on X.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged
01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed
05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s
11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?
15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?
18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?
21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust
26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise
31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news
33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium
37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances
42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world
48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China
52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen
58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar
01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust
06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency
10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity
12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update
16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds
19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer
21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk
25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process
29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate
31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following
38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?
43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following
51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets
58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity
01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020
01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too …
Shownotes
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else
01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth
04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve
09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?
16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean
18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy
25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?
31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system
35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?
40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality
47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits
57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations
59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt
01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets
01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar
01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters
07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question
08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention
12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed
16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply
18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?
22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning
24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function
30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields
34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime
41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime
49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification
52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns
01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets …
Shownotes
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors
01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing
06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional
10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets
13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market
14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history
18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles
23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?
28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven
29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters
32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines
34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm
39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work
42:33 - Why investors have never had it better
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections
01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets
07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk
10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes
13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks
14:51 - August trend following performance
16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends
20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity
27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?
31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market
36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage
41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?
47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following
52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers
56:49 - The “podification” of trend following
59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles
01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from …
Shownotes
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Mike on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing
04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world
07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed
12:09 The return of fiscal activism
15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital
19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?
22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates
25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble
29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime
33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification
37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters
42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis
46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved
48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta
52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio
56:47 How AI could transform investment management
01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Tom on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania
02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment
06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow
08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026
10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing
14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience
17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance
22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape
24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs
29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage
32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control
37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?
42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs
50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha
55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading
01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks
01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs
01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance …
Shownotes
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Charles on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing
03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing
09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?
12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners
18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?
21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity
25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation
28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies
32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve
40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook
43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers
48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities
51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive?
57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today
58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investors
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA …
Shownotes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.
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JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments
09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review
18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance
22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience
30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research
36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters
46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks
56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios
58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules
01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following
01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies
01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai
Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how …
Shownotes
Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking
01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing
04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations
08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations
11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment
15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model
20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing
24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model
26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities
31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio
38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio
43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha
45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers
51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures
57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investors
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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