Where Is This War Going?

Ukraine might be facing the most difficult winter in its recent history due to Russian strikes on vital civilian infrastructure. But the crisis is already unfolding since August: Ukraine is nearly defenseless against Russian ballistic missiles and is finding it increasingly difficult to shoot down jet-powered drones. The Russian army is trying to make Ukraine unlivable, yet Ukrainians continue to resist. On the frontline, Russia is losing nearly fifty thousand men killed or wounded per month, with its total losses reaching one and a half million. Meanwhile, Ukraine is slowly liberating occupied territories, reclaiming almost 1,000 square kilometers this year. So, where is this war heading? We try to explain. You’re listening to the Explaining Ukraine podcast. *** Explaining Ukraine is a podcast by UkraineWorld, an English-language media outlet about Ukraine brought to you by Internews Ukraine. Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher and the editor-in-chief of UkraineWorld. Guest: Tetyana Ogarkova, a Ukrainian literature scholar and journalist, head of the international department at the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, and author of the French-language podcast L'Ukraine face à la guerre. *** Listen on various platforms: https://li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine UkraineWorld: https://ukraineworld.org/en *** SUPPORT: You can support our work on https://www.patreon.com/c/ukraineworld Your help is crucial, as we rely heavily on crowdfunding. You can also contribute to our volunteer missions to frontline areas in Ukraine, where we deliver aid to both soldiers and civilians. Donations are welcome via PayPal at: [email protected]. *** CONTENTS: 0:00 Intro 0:28 What is the contrast between the front-line situation and the security in Ukraine's rear? 3:00 How has the security situation in Kyiv worsened, becoming the worst since 2022? 3:17 What new tactics, including drone attacks with different types of drones, did Russia deploy against Kyiv since August? 5:50 What specific successes have Ukrainian forces achieved on the front line, including the Veles and Vivaldi operations? 8:02 Are there ongoing counter-offensive successes in the southern regions, including the liberation of previously occupied villages? 11:47 How has Russia's "deportation by missiles" strategy become systematic, aiming to force civilians out and destabilize the economy? 13:35 What economic impacts are constant air alerts and blockades having on Ukrainian industries like steel production and grain exports? 19:44 Why is Ukraine expressing concern over US moves to pressure it, rather than increasing pressure on Russia, and what is the impact on aid and resources? 21:29 What issues arose with Starlink and StarShield services, and how did they affect Ukraine's defense against new, faster Russian drones? 28:08 Is Russia's war truly about Donbas, given its constitutional changes and broader historical ambitions for Ukrainian territory? 30:03 What are the current prospects and conditions for negotiations, and why are Ukrainians skeptical about a ceasefire without recognizing Russian occupation? 33:06 What propositions did Zelenskyy make regarding Ukraine stopping attacks on Russian oil refineries in exchange for US support against Russian attacks?