In Moscow's Shadows 268: Peace and (Info) War

A peace deal is easy to sketch and brutally hard to land. The latest reported shape of US-led talks offers some promise, especially with the talk of genuinely solid security guarantees for Ukraine and European involvement, although the last portion of the Donbas remains a seemingly-insuperable roadblock. Nonetheless, at least the announced ceasefire around Oleshky sounds like a little good news amidst the misery.

From there, I turn to the part of modern conflict that gets blamed for almost everything: information operations. Yes, Moscow runs disinformation and political influence campaigns, but should we respond in kind? Striking back sounds satisfying, but it comes with legal, moral, and practical costs and the biggest danger is the feedback loop: bluster creates bluster, trust at home erodes, and miscalculation becomes more likely even when nobody is looking for a shooting war.

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