Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski
- Episódios
- 329
- Publicação
- semanal
- Último episódio
- 9 nov 2026
Sobre o podcast
EVERY MONDAY A NEW EPISODE. I READ ALL MY EMAILS - contact form on my website - www.bogumilbaranowski.com. TELL ME YOUR STORY. I’m Bogumil Baranowski, an author, a TEDx speaker, an investor, and an investment advisor to families and individuals. Intimate conversations about money, wealth, and living a rich and fulfilling life. We talk about big ideas, big inspirations, big topics. We take on the hardest subject of all – money: how to make it, save it, keep it, but our conversations lead us to an even bigger question — what it means to live a rich life beyond money. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Episódios 329
Joseph Foresi: Anatomy of a Stock: How the Pros Really Analyze a Stock. Moats, Models, and Managements
Joseph Foresi, equity analyst, portfolio manager, finance lecturer, and author of Anatomy of a Stock, joins Talking Billions to explain what it really takes to own a business through the stock market. Episode …
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Joseph Foresi, equity analyst, portfolio manager, finance lecturer, and author of Anatomy of a Stock, joins Talking Billions to explain what it really takes to own a business through the stock market.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal—link in show notes for a two-week free trial plus 15% off https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/He opens with the story of mailing his book to Warren Buffett and receiving "the nicest sort of Dear John letter." He also explains how Bernard Baruch's challenge, to examine the market the way a physician studies anatomy, gave the book its name.
Joe credits Jack Bogle with doing enormous good for everyday investors. He also warns that passive investing has drifted from Bogle's low-cost, own-the-market idea toward pricey, opaque ETFs and an index driven by a handful of stocks. Calling himself "an active fundamentalist," he argues that the real edge is experience, and that it can't be rushed.
He walks through his five-factor framework: competitive advantage, catalyst, valuation, quality of management, and market psychology. Along the way he reminds us that you can be right on the numbers and still lose on the stock. Models are a healthy checkpoint but never the leader, as Long-Term Capital Management learned. A MasterCard case study shows the factors at work in a "toll booth" business. A conversation on trust explains why management should have to earn it.
Joe closes with market cycles and why bottoms are easier to spot than tops. He explains why twelve months is too short to judge a manager and names his one golden rule: "Cash is King." Finally, he says why he defines success as process and the journey itself.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Unhurried Goals, Seeing Past Your Lifetime, and “Will You Be Eating With Us?”
As Talking Billions nears its fourth anniversary and 250 guests, I look back on a month of conversations, the ideas I’ve been carrying with me, and the questions you’ve sent in. I recap episodes with Eric So on …
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As Talking Billions nears its fourth anniversary and 250 guests, I look back on a month of conversations, the ideas I’ve been carrying with me, and the questions you’ve sent in. I recap episodes with Eric So on protecting our judgment in the age of AI, Octavian Graf Pilati on saving his family’s centuries-old estate, Michel Ingenbleek on the psychology of long-term investing, and Neeraj Khemlani on The Coffee Can Investor. I also share a special 100 Year Thinkers conversation that Matt Zeigler and I recorded with Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom.From there, I go through ideas from your emails. I talk about why the best leaders are often reluctant ones, and about looking past retirement to wealth that outlasts us. I explain why strict deadlines can sabotage our goals, and why I prefer a relaxed range of outcomes. I offer a simple test for any advice: “Will you be eating with us?” I also cover why investing rarely moves in a straight line, why we all need a small win, and why great businesses stay far from perfect competition.I close with what I’m reading, David Robson’s The Expectation Effect. I also share two research habits: sleeping on every big decision, a lesson from my grandmother, and studying the stocks that have moved most from their 52-week highs and lows to understand the bigger picture.Links:The Power of Reluctant Leadershiphttps://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/p/the-power-of-reluctant-leadershipNapkin Portfolioshttps://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/p/napkin-portfolios-a-forest-youllWrite to me: [email protected] Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Eric So: The Collision: What AI Does To Us, Why We Need to Stop Outsourcing Our Judgment
Eric So, an MIT Sloan professor and former Nasdaq researcher, bridges investing, behavioral science, and AI in his book The Collision.MIT Sloan professor Eric So, a former Nasdaq researcher who studies …
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Eric So, an MIT Sloan professor and former Nasdaq researcher, bridges investing, behavioral science, and AI in his book The Collision.
MIT Sloan professor Eric So, a former Nasdaq researcher who studies investing, behavioral science, and artificial intelligence, joins Talking Billions to discuss his new book, The Collision: What AI Does To Us. The book began with a moment of unease. Eric finished a colleague's email with ChatGPT, felt the rush of efficiency, and then realized he had removed his own brain from the process. That "splinter" set him on a quest to understand what our growing reliance on AI is doing to us.
He revisits Steve Jobs' bicycle for the mind and argues that AI has become a motorcycle: more power, more risk, and increasingly the one setting the direction. Eric explains why so much work comes in "bundles of inseparable tasks." If you skip building the model or the slides, you lose the ability to defend them. He warns of cognitive short-termism in companies that reward AI usage over capability. He also draws on Walter Camp, Socrates, chess grandmasters, and the USS Vincennes to show how tools reshape the people who use them.
We explore why AI is built to flatter, how that can harden disagreements, and his simple trick of asking AI to explain why a colleague's idea is wrong. Eric contrasts a Turkish study, where unrestricted AI access hurt learning, with a Nigerian program designed as a tutor that delivered strong gains. He closes on agency, calibration, and the one thing he'd urge everyone to stop outsourcing: judgment.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Octavian Graf Pilati: Burning the Sails to Save the Ship: Saving a Centuries-old Family Estate at 25
My guest today is Octavian Graf Pilati — a member of an Austrian aristocratic family whose lineage traces back nearly a thousand years, and the founder of The Antifragile Family. At 25, he was handed …
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My guest today is Octavian Graf Pilati — a member of an Austrian aristocratic family whose lineage traces back nearly a thousand years, and the founder of The Antifragile Family. At 25, he was handed responsibility for saving his family's centuries-old estate through a devastating financial crisis, a story so instructive that Harvard Business School turned it into a case study — Burning the Sails to Save the Ship. Since then, Octavian has built a body of work around what actually makes multigenerational families endure: governance, conflict, succession, and the human systems that either hold a legacy together or quietly tear it apart.
At 25, Octavian Graf Pilati was handed responsibility for saving his family’s centuries-old Austrian estate, a crisis triggered by a bankrupt Costa Rican teak company his father had guaranteed. The story became a Harvard Business School case study: Burning the Sails to Save the Ship.
Octavian recalls walking into creditor meetings with an engineer’s mindset, expecting to solve a problem together, only to learn the other side mostly wanted to get paid fast. He reflects on selling a forest and a palace held for 300 years, and why every asset, legacy assets above all, must serve a clear purpose rather than become a burden for the next generation.
He traces deeper roots of fragility: the fall of the Habsburg Empire, when the family “became just a wealthy family” and lost its sense of purpose, and 1945, when Soviet occupation scattered the family and the estate came back a decade later stripped of half its forest. He explains why he chose to research his family’s wartime past himself, and recounts a COVID-era scheme in Costa Rica involving a forged passport and a stand-in for his father.
Octavian lays out the crisis ladder, from incident to catastrophe, and why family catastrophes almost always combine slow-building internal tension with an external shock. He walks through the five capitals of family wealth, argues that spouses strengthen a family, and offers a line worth keeping: “the currency of love is time.”
He closes with what he’d tell his children at 25: understand how your brain works, look after your body, and remember that practice without rest doesn’t make a master.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
100 Year Thinkers: Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Companies, Index Risk and Who Really Wins From AI
Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much of a portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners …
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Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much of a portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?
On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧 I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from the Excess Returns team. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.
Topics covered:Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistake
How client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limits
Chris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentives
Robert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinks
The bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistake
What Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adapt
Why identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returns
Whether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to users
How customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantages
Balance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position
Chris Davis / Davis Funds https://davisfunds.com/
Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass / https://www.equitycompass.com/
Chapters:
00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits
06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk
12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives
19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson
30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth
36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?
40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users
45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust
51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing
55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle
01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI
01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Michel Ingenbleek: Staying Intact: The Behavioral Discipline of Long-Term Investing
Find me on Substack!Today on Talking Billions, I'm joined by Michel Ingenbleek — an investor and writer whose career took an unusual road here: from leading teams in the Dutch Korps Commandotroepen and Royal …
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Find me on Substack!
Today on Talking Billions, I'm joined by Michel Ingenbleek — an investor and writer whose career took an unusual road here: from leading teams in the Dutch Korps Commandotroepen and Royal Netherlands Marine Corps, to two decades running offshore energy projects and corporate strategy at companies like Subsea 7 and Technip. These days he writes Capital and Character, a weekly Substack on the psychology of long-term investing, and his debut book, Staying Intact, turns two decades of his own investment mistakes into a framework he calls the behavioral margin of safety.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Michel's path to investing began a hundred meters down, inside a pumped-dry habitat on the seabed, finishing a days-long weld on a 48-inch pipeline and asking himself, "is this it?" The former Dutch commando and Royal Netherlands Marine went on to project and strategy roles at Subsea 7 and Technip, and chose to invest his offshore bonuses himself rather than hand them to a wealth manager. The mistakes that followed became his book, Staying Intact.
At its heart is the behavioral margin of safety. Graham's margin tells you the price at which an asset is worth buying; Michel's tells you the size you can hold without your judgment breaking if the position falls further before you're proven right. He shares the story of selling ASML and Nvidia in 2022, then realizing his follow-up research was really a search for reassurance: "I get fooled so easily basically by feelings."
We trace the recurring ingredient of every bubble, from tulip mania to GameStop: not a lie but a truth, until rising prices get mistaken for evidence. Michel applies that lens to AI without pretending to forecast it. He separates loud, fast narrative risk from quiet, slow economic risk, explains why a deliberate pause can save a position better than more information, and revisits Long-Term Capital Management as a lesson in what models can't see. We also talk about red-teaming your own ideas, the strength in saying "I don't know," why "enough" is a horizon rather than a destination, the neglected years of simply owning, and his current work on what happens to investors when intelligence becomes commoditized.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Neeraj Khemlani: The Coffee Can Investor: A Stock-Picker's Journey to Build Generational Wealth
Find me on Substack!My guest today is Neeraj Khemlani, the former president and co-head of CBS News and Stations, a veteran 60 Minutes producer and media executive, and the author of The Coffee Can Investor, A …
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Find me on Substack!
My guest today is Neeraj Khemlani, the former president and co-head of CBS News and Stations, a veteran 60 Minutes producer and media executive, and the author of The Coffee Can Investor, A Stock Picker’s Journey to Build Generational Wealth, who uses the story of a Midwestern portfolio manager’s decades-long search for 100-bagger stocks to make the case that patient, concentrated ownership of exceptional businesses can build truly generational wealth.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/Neeraj Khemlani, former co-head of CBS News and Stations and longtime 60 Minutes producer, grew up in a lower-middle-class immigrant family in New York, where education was his path forward. He wrote The Coffee Can Investor "largely out of mission," wishing someone had taught him the basics of investing much earlier.
The book began on an annual call with Matt, a portfolio manager he met in Denver in 1999 and his longtime "Marvin the Explainer." Matt had studied every hundred bagger since 1980. He planned to put $5 million of his own money into potential future ones, untouched for thirty years, as a gift to his three daughters. Neeraj's reaction: "Holy shit, that's a book."
The idea traces back to Robert Kirby. One of Kirby's clients had a husband who quietly bought every stock Kirby recommended and never sold. After the husband died, he left behind a coffee can of stock certificates that beat the managed account, including a Xerox position that went to $800,000.
Neeraj explains why holding is the hard part through Matt's early sale of Fastenal, which went on to grow roughly nineteenfold: "you don't learn to have patience until you learn what happens when you don't have patience." He shares the chessboard parable of doubling grains of rice. He also walks through Matt's findings: most hundred baggers were founder- or family-run, many grew through acquisitions, and 68% sold to other businesses. Neeraj saw the same pattern firsthand at Hearst, where Fitch became the biggest profit contributor. As he puts it, "the sexiest things are usually the least lucrative."
The conversation closes at Thanksgiving, when Matt and his wife told their daughters about the coffee can. "The girls never once asked for anything," Neeraj recalls. The lesson for both fathers: "we already won. They already won."
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
On Urgency, Consistency, and Sensible Investing: Unfiltered Coffee August & September 2026
In this Unfiltered Coffee episode, I share some thoughts that have stayed with me through recent conversations, listener emails, books, podcasts, and my own work with investors and families.I reflect on a …
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In this Unfiltered Coffee episode, I share some thoughts that have stayed with me through recent conversations, listener emails, books, podcasts, and my own work with investors and families.
I reflect on a different kind of urgency—not the manufactured urgency of expiring offers or opportunities that supposedly require an answer by Friday, but the urgency that comes from within. It’s the realization that something in your financial life may need attention today because being off by an inch now can mean being off by a mile five or ten years from now.
I explore the difference between benign neglect and costly neglect, the extraordinary effects of compounding over time, and why what got us here may not always be the path forward.
I also talk about consistency and what it means to be a constant in someone else’s life. Consistency isn’t perfection. It’s returning to a calm and thoughtful place after life tests us, showing up again, and remaining dependable through changing circumstances.
Another recurring theme is family fortune and multigenerational wealth. I share why I increasingly think about family wealth through the lens of stewardship rather than ownership—and why what we inherit, care for, and pass along extends far beyond financial assets.
Finally, I return to a deceptively simple question: what does it mean to invest sensibly? Capital can eventually begin doing some of the heavy lifting that once depended entirely on our own efforts. How we put that capital to work is deeply personal, but perhaps we make investing more complicated than it needs to be.
Along the way, I revisit recent conversations with Paul Johnson, Lee Freeman-Shor, Alexander von der Vellen, Jan Petke, Jared Dillian, Peter Lazaroff, Ian Cassel, Owen Zidar, and Eric Zwick, and share a few things I’ve been reading and listening to lately.
Some of the ideas in this episode:
- The difference between internal and manufactured urgency
- Benign neglect versus neglect that quietly costs us money
- Why small financial decisions can compound into enormous differences
- Luck, risk, and revisiting assumptions that have worked in the past
- Consistency as a practice in investing and in life
- What it means to be a constant for other people
- Family fortunes, stewardship, and multigenerational thinking
- The transition from earning money to letting capital do more of the work
- Why investing doesn’t have to be unnecessarily complicated
I always enjoy hearing from you, so if you have a question, thought, or story to share, write to me at [email protected] not com. Save it somewhere—I’ll only keep it here for a little while.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Peter Lazaroff: The Perfect Portfolio: A Proven Guide to Smart Investing for Long-Term Success
Find me on Substack!My guest today is Peter Lazaroff, CFA, CFP®—the Chief Investment Officer of the $10-billion-plus RIA Plancorp, chair of its investment committee, host of The Long-Term Investor, and author …
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Find me on Substack!My guest today is Peter Lazaroff, CFA, CFP®—the Chief Investment Officer of the $10-billion-plus RIA Plancorp, chair of its investment committee, host of The Long-Term Investor, and author of Making Money Simple, and a new book The Perfect Portfolio, whose central message is that the best portfolio is not the historical winner but the one tailored to an investor’s goals, capacity for risk, and ability to stay disciplined.
Peter Lazaroff's first stock arrived on his twelfth birthday: a single share of Nike from his grandmother. He was disappointed until a one-dollar dividend check showed up in the mail. "I didn't even have to work for this," he recalls, and he was hooked. Today, as CIO overseeing more than $10 billion and author of The Perfect Portfolio, he argues that the best portfolio isn't the historical winner but the one built for your life.
He opens his book with a steak dinner, burned on a cheap grill in the backyard of his first home, because the perfect portfolio, like the perfect meal, is personal. He tells the story of a client whose blue chip stocks and mutual funds were chosen to impress others rather than to fund his goals. A portfolio, Peter says, is "a piece of their identity," and it changes over a lifetime as your human capital, balance sheet, and heirs come into view.
On market timing, he reminds us that "You do have to be right twice," and that taxes can turn a bad call into a "permanent bear market." Rather than predicting declines, plan on them. He explains exposure therapy for investors, why narratives scare us more than percentages, and why our instinct to run from the rustle in the bushes makes beating the market so hard.
Peter reveals his own guardrail, "It's to not do it yourself," shares why bond indexes lend the most to the most indebted, and makes the case for goals-based benchmarks: "am I still on track?" He closes with a controversial plea to read twenty minutes a day, and with the idea at the heart of his book: the perfect portfolio is the one you can stick with.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Ian Cassel: The Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street
Find me on Substack!Ian Cassel is the founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, specializing in underfollowed public companies led by exceptional owner-operators — pairing …
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Find me on Substack!
Ian Cassel is the founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, specializing in underfollowed public companies led by exceptional owner-operators — pairing rigorous, boots-on-the-ground research with the patience to hold rare compounding businesses through volatility. He became a full-time private investor at 28 and has spent his career hunting for undiscovered small public companies, and the founders who run them, before Wall Street ever notices. Today, we discuss his new book, The Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Ian Cassel didn’t take the conventional path into investing — he skipped it entirely. Raised in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania’s blue-collar, Amish-adjacent farm country, Cassel became a full-time private investor at 28, guided for years by a single line he wrote on a napkin at 22: “10K and two ten baggers equal millionaire.” It took six years to make it true.
That patience defines everything Cassel does now as founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. He makes the case for microcaps as one of the market’s last true structural edges — citing research showing 87% of stocks that returned 10x or more over the past decade started as microcaps, and 91% of those were already profitable businesses, not speculative stories. Institutions, he argues, are locked out not by risk but by illiquidity itself.
Cassel also opens up about the mentors who shaped him, including a message-board trader named Skip who taught him that a stock is “a buy or a sell,” never a hold — and that if you’re not willing to put your money where your mouth is, you should keep quiet. He’s candid, too, about his own losing streaks, the temptation to double down on losing positions, and a Porsche-and-Rolex purchase he now looks back on with some embarrassment.
The conversation closes on something bigger than markets: Cassel’s belief that “the secret to compounding” isn’t just financial — it’s showing up, present, for the people you love, today, rather than waiting for some future payoff.
The book: The Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick: The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There
Join me on Substack! Look up my name.Today I'm joined by two economists who spent a decade inside a room most of us will never see — the basement of the U.S. Treasury Department — building the first database …
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Join me on Substack! Look up my name.
Today I'm joined by two economists who spent a decade inside a room most of us will never see — the basement of the U.S. Treasury Department — building the first database that ever linked confidential tax records to the individual owners of America's private businesses.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/Owen Zidar teaches at Princeton, Eric Zwick teaches at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and together they've written a book that completely reframed how I think about wealth in this country: The Everywhere Millionaire.
Their argument, backed by data nobody had ever assembled before, is that America's real fortune isn't sitting with the Forbes 400 on the coasts — it's sitting with three million "ordinary" business owners: car dealers, dental practices, gutter manufacturers, hiding in plain sight in nearly every town in the country. They define an "everywhere millionaire" as a private business owner worth $5 million or more, and collectively, these three million households hold thirteen times the wealth of the Forbes 400.
We trace the hidden engine behind that wealth, and they share story after story of the individuals who built it. We go beyond the economic power of this group into the political influence it quietly carries too.
Their book is eye-opening and genuinely inspiring. It makes the case that the American Dream is very much alive, and that there are far more paths to it than most of us realize. Some readers may even find themselves seeing, for the first time, that they're not alone — that they're part of a much larger, wealthier, more established group than the billionaires who steal all the spotlight. And maybe that's exactly where they want to be: financially successful, politically influential, yet comfortably out of sight, living among the rest of us.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Jared Dillian: The Awesome Portfolio: Why Smoother Returns Beat Bigger Ones
My guest today is Jared Dillian—former Lehman Brothers index-arbitrage and ETF trader, founder of the 18-year-old professional market letter The Daily Dirtnap, registered CTA, author of seven books, and an …
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My guest today is Jared Dillian—former Lehman Brothers index-arbitrage and ETF trader, founder of the 18-year-old professional market letter The Daily Dirtnap, registered CTA, author of seven books, and an unusually multidimensional market thinker whose work joins macro trading, practical personal finance, risk control, writing, mental health, and electronic music.
Today, are we talking about his new book The Awesome Portfolio, a simple, stress-free approach to investing.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/Jared unpacks the origin of The Awesome Portfolio — born from testing model portfolios with a subscriber-turned-advisor, later validated by Nick Maggiulli's own optimization research.
Core thesis: "to make people make stupid decisions" is, in Jared's telling, the whole purpose of volatility — Vanguard's own data shows investors rarely capture the returns their funds actually post.
Vanguard's "advisor alpha": simply having someone stop you from trading boosts returns by 3%. But Jared argues even a good advisor can't erase the stress of a 50% drawdown.
The Awesome Portfolio's worst-ever year: down 12%, versus an 89% max drawdown for the S&P since 1929. "Drawdowns affect psychology."
The "life hedge": your job and the market tend to move together, amplifying your life's volatility. The ideal hedge would move opposite — nothing fully does.
Risk of ruin, via a $300M Powerball thought experiment: "wealthy people think about the risk of ruin and middle-class people don't."
Reflexivity: the top 7 stocks make up 35% of the index, so buying the index means buying concentration.
The five 20% slices — stocks, bonds, gold, cash, real estate — rebalanced once a year, deliberately simple.
Why crypto got cut: even a small Bitcoin allocation would dominate investor attention and undercut the whole stress-free premise.
Stress-tested against a literal nuclear war, Jared still can't find a scenario where all five assets fail together.
Closing candor: "Books succeed when they tell people things they already believe" — which is why he expects pushback, not a bestseller.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Paul Johnson: Why "Value Investing" Was Never the Right Name. Fundamental Investing — Not Value vs. Growth Is the Real Divide in Markets
My guest today is Professor Paul Johnson, a veteran value investor, long-time Columbia and Fordham professor, and co-author of The Enduring Value of Roger Murray, Pitch the Perfect Investment, and The Gorilla …
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My guest today is Professor Paul Johnson, a veteran value investor, long-time Columbia and Fordham professor, and co-author of The Enduring Value of Roger Murray, Pitch the Perfect Investment, and The Gorilla Game. He's taught in the same value investing tradition that runs from Benjamin Graham through Roger Murray, and he brings both a practitioner's and a historian's eye to our conversation today.
02:10 – Origin story: a teenage bet on a gold penny stock turned $250 into $2,500 and hooked Paul on markets with "no physical labor."
08:46 – Debut theory: the '73–'74 crash plus the rise of relative performance permanently reshaped investing after Graham.
10:54 – Buffett's 1991 letter: value and growth investing are "basically the same thing" — the label "value investing" is redundant.
24:54 – Correction for the record: David Dodd, not Murray, taught Security Analysis until 1961.
27:04 – Murray's core contribution: rigor and discipline — illustrated by the Leon Cooperman "400-number table" story.
33:26 – The magnet metaphor: intrinsic value pulls price toward it over time, though price can overshoot or undershoot.
42:28 – Paul pushes back on his own construct: ignoring the future still means betting value stays stable.
47:39 – Bruce Greenwald's addition: sustainable competitive advantage, and the 1997 "Competitive Advantage Period" paper with Mauboussin.
51:53 – Why growth concentrates in mega-caps: scale, internet infrastructure, and the "optionality" to acquire threats early.
58:45 – Framing device: "What if AI is just a normal disruptive technology?" — like electricity or the internal combustion engine.
01:16:14 – "I say the key to investment" — a superior value estimate plus the ability to hold through volatility.
01:17:33 – A Buffett-adjacent friend rode $10K to $1B because he "didn't want to disappoint Warren."Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Bob Robotti: We Asked a Value Legend Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers (Excess Returns Podcast)
Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI …
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Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today’s neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.
I join Matt Zeigler for one more special episode of Excess Returns. I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work; links below.
Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobotti
Robotti & Company
https://www.robotti.comTopics covered
How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power
Why his “grassroots macro” process starts with company-level supply and demand
How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets
Why North America’s natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle
Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples
Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today’s dominant technology companies
How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers
Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity
Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor
Why he is skeptical of today’s private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios
The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early
Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Jan Petke: The Meteor Every Heir Sees Coming - On Inheritance, Integration, and Why Money is the Smallest Part of the Fortune
My guest today is Jan Petke, a dynastic architect and strategic consigliere to sovereign and leading global entrepreneur families, who designs continuity architectures so that power, capital, and culture …
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My guest today is Jan Petke, a dynastic architect and strategic consigliere to sovereign and leading global entrepreneur families, who designs continuity architectures so that power, capital, and culture compound across generations — not just portfolios.
3:00 — Jan traces his path from a McKinsey-spinoff consultancy through private equity (Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s First State Investments) to advising “centi-millionaires” — first-gen tech entrepreneurs with liquidity events over €100 million.
5:25 — Jan rejects “advisor” and “wealth manager” as labels: “wealth has nothing to do with money” (6:14).
7:35 — The shift from “next generation” to “rising generation,” and from financial capital to human and intellectual capital.
11:04 — The “meteor” metaphor: inherited wealth arrives with a weight of responsibility most heirs are unprepared for (12:55).
20:43 — On the shirtsleeves proverb: “This proverb is real and serious, because that is physics” — though every family has “free will” over whether it repeats (21:45).
25:04 — Jan’s own 100 Year Family Project, built with his four children: “my mantra is I eat my own cooking.”
32:25 — Declining birth rates and families transforming into institutions.
38:53 — New “tribal” dynasties forming around purpose, not bloodline. 2,000–5,000 new dynasties expected within a decade — 40% female-led (41:19).
43:51 — Women as an “underestimated” force in the wealth transfer.
50:43 — Bringing elders into governance through an “elder council”: “you can’t Google wisdom” (54:12).
54:51 — The 1,000-year vision — inspired by Hong Kong’s Lee Kum Kee family and echoed across scripture.
58:42 — Why Jan avoids “legacy” in favor of “lineage impact.”
1:03:20 — On success: “if I can inspire someone to do better.”
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Thomas Chua: The Lunch Break Investor, How Busy People Can Build Wealth in One Hour a Day
Thomas Chua is a friend, an investor, an investing educator, and the founder of Steady Compounding, where he shares lessons from great businesses and great investors with a global audience. He’s also the author …
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Thomas Chua is a friend, an investor, an investing educator, and the founder of Steady Compounding, where he shares lessons from great businesses and great investors with a global audience. He’s also the author of a brand-new book, The Lunch Break Investor, about how busy people can build wealth thoughtfully in roughly an hour a day.
(03:00) Title story: his father pawned his mother’s wedding jewelry; Thomas vows “the lights will never go off again.”
(06:00) Library autobiographies over role models; “failure in itself is nothing to be embarrassed about.”
(08:00) Singapore’s 4-year bond funded university — career freedom traded for $30K to compound.
(11:00) Trader-to-owner shift: prices checked every 15 min, until Buffett’s line on tickers landed.
(15:00) “Forgotten money”: Guy Spier’s dislike of trading; Adam Mead forgetting his own login.
(17:00) Core thesis: “invest to live and not the other way around” — one hour a day.
(20:00) Lynch’s line: “nobody ever wished on their deathbed that they wish they spent more time in the office.”
(24:00) Ronald Reid (janitor, $8M) and Anne Scheiber (IRS auditor, left $22M).
(28:00) A moat as treasure inside a castle worth defending.
(31:00) ROIC and Munger’s “gravity” — a moat’s trajectory beats its size.
(33:00) AI capex wave: Meta’s ad growth vs. debt-heavy new cloud entrants.
(38:00) Red flag: Peloton’s CFO denied a capital raise days before doing one.
(41:00) The “wallet test” for management; Bezos’s “Ouch” letter.
(43:00) Buying in three tranches, letting the business prove itself.
(44:00) Selling as “an admission that I was wrong” — the Lululemon case.
(48:00) One-hour checklist: “why does this business deserve to be bigger five years from now,” plus scanning your card statement for moat clues.
(50:00) Writing Steady Compounding publicly sharpened his thinking, built his audience.
(53:00) The Malacca trip with his grandmother that never happened; Munger’s tuna regret.
(56:00) After 200+ episodes: permission to take the walk, take the trip — you’re safe now.Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
The Things We Have to Do: Bogumil on Just Press Record with Matt Zeigler
I’m reposting today an interview that Matt Zeigler kindly conducted with me recently. It just so happens that today is my birthday, which makes it feel like the right moment to share this deeply personal …
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I’m reposting today an interview that Matt Zeigler kindly conducted with me recently. It just so happens that today is my birthday, which makes it feel like the right moment to share this deeply personal conversation about a chapter in my life and career when uncertainty was at its peak and the road ahead felt anything but clear.
In this impromptu conversation, recorded one summer morning, I reflect on what happened during that time, what I learned from it, and how those experiences continue to shape me today. Along the way, you’ll hear stories and moments I’ve never shared publicly before.
I also encourage you to read the thoughtful profile Matt wrote about me on his wonderful Cultish Creative blog, linked here. While you’re there, take some time to explore—and follow—his beautifully written, thoughtfully curated work. I’m grateful for the care and generosity he brings to every conversation and every story he tells.
Bogumil Baranowski joins Matt Zeigler to explore why failure is feedback and how persistence can turn rejection, uncertainty, and personal obstacles into life-changing opportunities. Bogumil shares his journey from Poland to a career in New York investing, the green card rejection that nearly ended it, and the unlikely path that eventually led him to ask Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.
Topics covered:Why failure should be treated as feedback rather than defeat
What Joseph Moore’s struggle to publish How to Get Rich in American History teaches about resilience
How personal conviction helps people continue when success appears statistically unlikely
Why creating a podcast can preserve valuable conversations and connect overlooked ideas
How podcast hosts cross-pollinate insights between investors, authors, and thinkers
Bogumil’s decision to leave Europe and build an investing career in New York City
The visa challenges and green card rejection that almost forced him to leave America
How hope and persistence helped him restart the immigration process
The unlikely story of asking Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question at Berkshire Hathaway
Why obstacles can help people develop strengths that others do not possess
How an outsider’s perspective can create an advantage in investing and creative work
Why people should embrace the experiences that make them different
Timestamps:
00:00 Why some goals become things you have to do
03:00 Joseph Moore and the history of getting rich
06:04 Why location matters when building and preserving wealth
08:20 Failure is feedback
09:30 Why important ideas often face rejection
13:03 Turning private conversations into a public podcast
16:40 Learning through other people’s experiences
18:08 Cross-pollinating ideas between great investors
20:24 Bogumil’s decision to pursue investing in New York
21:42 Visa problems and a rejected green card application
24:00 Starting the immigration process again
26:14 Why persistence matters more than the size of the goal
27:46 Asking Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question
31:42 Why failing is part of trying
33:53 The unexpected connection to The King’s Speech
35:29 Turning perceived weaknesses into strengths
37:29 Where to find Bogumil’s writing and podcasts
Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Lee Freeman-Shor: Why Being Right Less Than Half the Time Can Still Make You Rich, The Five Behavioral Tribes — and Why Stock Picking Matters Less Than What You Do Next
Lee Freeman‑Shor is a former multi‑award‑winning fund manager turned bestselling author and researcher who has spent years inside the decision‑making of the world’s best investors to uncover how they get it …
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Lee Freeman‑Shor is a former multi‑award‑winning fund manager turned bestselling author and researcher who has spent years inside the decision‑making of the world’s best investors to uncover how they get it wrong most of the time and still make millions in the markets. He gave 45 elite investors real money and studied 30,000 trades to decode execution. He shares what he learned in the process. Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Episode Notes
03:00 — Lee's working-class Nottinghamshire upbringing; didn't know what a stock was until university.
04:11 — Stumbled into fund management after a law degree, then built the "Best Ideas" fund range at Scander Investment Group.
07:07 — The spark: a manager with a 30% hit rate who still made a fortune for the fund.
09:51 — Analyzing 30,000 trades: hit rates cluster near 50% — "it's definitely not about the stock idea."
19:30 — Lee unveils his five investor tribes: rabbits, assassins, hunters, raiders, connoisseurs.
20:30 — Why investors freeze: "you don't want to be a rabbit."
22:42 — The biases behind it: "endowment bias, sunk cost bias... regret aversion bias."
24:15 — His gut-check question for holding a losing name: would you buy it today with fresh money?
25:43 — Averaging down done right — hunters start small so they can "lean into the name."
38:16 — Stock Market Maestros research: the "lumberjack" archetype (John Barr), tiny starting positions, decades-long 100-baggers.
44:54 — "Incrementalists" like Andrew Hall and James Hambro trim and add in small steps instead of exiting outright.
48:34 — Behavioral alpha score and payoff ratio — metrics that predict future manager skill.
53:15 — Takeaway: "when you're losing, do something... try and be an assassin."
58:43 — Lee's personal lesson: "expect to be wrong."
1:00:41 — Closing reflection on what success really means after stepping back from money management in 2018.Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
100 Year Thinkers: Warren Buffett Published His Whole Playbook | Robert Hagstrom on Why Only One Tenth of 1% Uses It
Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.They discuss …
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Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.
They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral.
Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.
Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧
I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from the Excess Returns team. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio - 25th Anniversary Edition
Robert Hagstrom on X
Equity Compass
Topics covered
Why Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theory
Why Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing risk
What Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformance
The difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexing
How benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active management
What loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behavior
Why Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for markets
Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculation
The El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop working
Why options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casino
How to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earnings
Why permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investing
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance
11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration
17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors
22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory
26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets
32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor
37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction
42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts
46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike
51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs
56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics
01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focused investing
01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Alexander von der Vellen: Money Is Not Freedom — It's Pressure
Alexander von der Vellen is a Cambridge-educated former British Army officer who left private banking at Barings and JPMorgan Chase to become an independent fiduciary advising over 100 entrepreneurial families …
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Alexander von der Vellen is a Cambridge-educated former British Army officer who left private banking at Barings and JPMorgan Chase to become an independent fiduciary advising over 100 entrepreneurial families, and author of a trilogy on trusteeship and stewardship.
Spend more time with Alexander here, his own recorded podcast series of lectures with some precious advice for inheritors and their families.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
3:00 — Alexander explains banking is the rare industry where age is a perceived advantage; he once asked his London barber to add gray hair for private banking credibility.
8:52 — Childhood: born in Spain to an Austrian father and English mother, raised in the Canary Islands speaking four languages, boarding school at age 7.
16:04 — The old Barings model: clients paid double the nearest competitor, and money itself was the one taboo topic at client events — “the money was the byproduct of the relationship.”
20:11 — The Lord Darby anecdote: a JP Morgan banker meets Fleming’s Lord Darby, learns he rides alone with the Queen in her carriage, and asks, verbatim, “why is she not a client?” — Alexander’s illustration of the shift from relationship-driven to transactional banking.
31:19 — Trusteeship as a human skill set: diligence, duty, loyalty, discretion — qualities that must be consciously developed, not assumed.
43:16 — The JP Morgan $30 million marker: past that point wealth “will outlast you,” triggering a different family conversation entirely — stewardship, not spending.
49:44 — Key quote: “money is not freedom, it’s pressure” — the more you buy, the more pressure it adds to your life.
58:33 — A boy-band client years later: “you do realize this is all because of you... you saved me from myself.”
1:01:02 — Quoting Patton: “good plan delivered with energy today is far better than an excellent plan delivered next week.”
1:04:30 — Success, defined: “it’s about continuity with meaning every time.”
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
On Consistency, Ownership, and Unconditional Giving: Unfiltered Coffee Q&A, July 2026
This month on Unfiltered Coffee, I share more about the machinery behind both the podcast and the investing practice — the 200-some episodes, the 2 decades of client relationships, the daily habits, and the …
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This month on Unfiltered Coffee, I share more about the machinery behind both the podcast and the investing practice — the 200-some episodes, the 2 decades of client relationships, the daily habits, and the things that simply take time and can't be rebuilt in a day, even if you wanted to.
I share the idea of decision and choice fatigue: how templating the small stuff (the shoes, the shirt, the quarterly letter format) frees up mental capacity for the decisions that actually matter, and how consistency is the quiet, unglamorous compounding force behind almost everything worth building. I also talk about cultivating an ownership mindset with clients — wanting them to see their portfolio not as a list of tickers, but as part ownership in a handful of businesses worth understanding and holding.
I also revisit a few books with fresh eyes: Scott Stillman's I Don't Want to Grow Up on the nonlinear relationship between money and lifestyle, David Schwartz's Thinking Big on belief as the foundation of getting help from the world, and John Kay's Obliquity on why profit, happiness, and most worthwhile goals are only ever reached indirectly.
A paper from Steve Shaw and Gideon Nave on AI and "cognitive surrender" gets me thinking about the difference between reciting knowledge and actually understanding it — a distinction I trace back to a classmate from high school who could quote a textbook verbatim but didn't understand it. On the market side, I push back gently on the all-time-high headlines — you'll see why.
I close with a personal story about an early client, and a round-up of recent conversations worth revisiting: Paul Johnson on Roger Murray and fundamental investing, Marion Fogli on the triple taboo of money, Robert Miles on 25 years of Berkshire CEO character studies, and a rebroadcast recommendation of the Jay Hughes episode on courage over knowledge. I end on an open question I'm still sitting with: can a gift ever really be unconditional? Listen, why the answer matters.
Tune in to hear more.Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
James E. Hughes, Jr.: Great Advisors Offer Courage, Not Just Knowledge, The Five Capitals, 100-Year Thinking, and What It Takes to Help a Family Flourish
Find me on Substack, search for my name.This is a summer classic — a re-release of an enhanced, longer audio episode that originally aired in late 2022, with my added intro and commentary. It’s among my most …
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Find me on Substack, search for my name.
This is a summer classic — a re-release of an enhanced, longer audio episode that originally aired in late 2022, with my added intro and commentary. It’s among my most cherished Talking Billions episodes of all time. If you missed it, this is your moment. If you’ve heard it before, welcome back.
It’s a heart-to-heart conversation with a dear friend, a mentor, who has shaped me and my career in so many wonderful ways.
James E. “Jay” Hughes, Jr. is a widely respected voice in family wealth, governance, and legacy planning, known for helping families think beyond financial assets to the human and relational side of multigenerational success. He is the author and co-author of several influential books, including Family Wealth: Keeping It in the Family and Family: The Compact Among Generations, and his work has shaped how family offices and advisors approach long-term stewardship.
Jay traces his own path to this work back to childhood: overhearing his parents argue about money, and learning that his mother’s family had lost everything overnight when her grandfather’s bank failed. That experience is the root of the proverb he’s spent his career trying to help families escape — “shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations.”
Jay lays out the five capitals of family wealth — human, intellectual, social, spiritual, and financial — and argues the profession’s obsession with the last one, in isolation, is precisely what causes families to fall apart. He illustrates this with a simple hand gesture: thumb up alone is, in his words, “the death of a family.” Turn the hand over, and purpose, joint decision-making, lifelong learning, and thriving people all emerge, with financial capital finally in service of something.
He explains why 70 to 85 percent of wealthy families lose their cohesion by the third generation — not usually from conflict, but from inertia, from never building a working system for making decisions together. That system, he says, is what separates families that endure from those that quietly disperse.
Jay also unpacks what elders actually do in successful, long-lived tribes: they think in 100-year increments and mediate rather than decide, citing the Haudenosaunee’s tradition of honoring seven generations back and seven generations forward. He connects this to a piece of advice from his own father — that clients don’t come to an advisor seeking knowledge, since knowledge is fungible, but seeking courage to do something difficult.
The conversation closes on money and parenting, with Jay offering a simple reframe for any parent standing in a toy store: never say “we can’t afford it” — say “we’re choosing not to have that today.” It’s a fitting note for an episode built around Jay’s foundation’s larger mission — helping families flourish so they can, in turn, build a flourishing society.
Find out more about James E. Hughes here: The Foundation, Jay’s website.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Robert P. Miles: What 20 Berkshire CEOs Taught Him About Character, Inside the Temperament, the Moat, and the Culture that Keep Compounding
Find me on Substack, search for my name.Robert P. Miles is an author, educator, and the world's foremost authority on Berkshire Hathaway's management culture. Robert has written three bestselling books on …
Notas do episódio
Find me on Substack, search for my name.
Robert P. Miles is an author, educator, and the world's foremost authority on Berkshire Hathaway's management culture. Robert has written three bestselling books on Warren Buffett, created the only graduate MBA course dedicated to Buffett's philosophies, and founded the Value Investor Conference in Omaha. His journey from an entrepreneur to a globally recognized Buffett scholar began with a single Berkshire annual meeting in 1996 — and Warren Buffett himself has been paying attention ever since.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Notes:
3:00 – Bob Miles is introduced as the world's foremost Berkshire Hathaway culture scholar, author of three (now four) bestselling Buffett books and creator of the only graduate MBA course on Buffett's philosophies.
5:30 – His path began with Napoleon Hill's Think and Grow Rich and a failed high school "movie day" venture. The lesson that stuck: "you got to understand what business you're in."
7:23 – His first 1996 annual meeting: Buffett tells a small shareholder, "between you and I we own half the company," and calls Wall Street "the legal pickpocket of the average investor."
14:24 – The Dairy Queen story: a self-published "101 Reasons to Own Berkshire Hathaway," a line around the block, and Buffett walking through the door — leading to a two-book deal with Wiley.
31:18 – On concentration: Buffett put 65% of his $20,000 net worth into Geico at 19, tied to his "star player" basketball analogy for conviction investing.
36:41 – The three unchanging lessons of The Intelligent Investor — stocks are businesses, your partner is a manic-depressive Mr. Market, and margin of safety — because "principles are principles because they don't change."
42:59 – A contrarian aside: private equity "has done more harm than good," with the Berkshire system as its inversion.
53:43 – On Berkshire's real edge: "I see the moat as cash," the roughly $400 billion war chest that lets Ajit Jain write insurance the day after disasters strike.
1:08:58 – On character over credentials: concentrating on admirable traits "there's no cost," regardless of background.
1:10:34 – Miles' definition of success: stay humble enough to be taught, and "go to bed a little bit smarter" every day.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Marion Fogli, Finance Made Human: Money a Triple Taboo, Three Money Questions, and Talking Early About Inheritance
Find me on Substack, search for Bogumil Baranowski.Marion Fogli, a Swiss digital banking pioneer who co-founded Switzerland’s first digital private bank, now teaches what she calls Finance Made Human …
Notas do episódio
Find me on Substack, search for Bogumil Baranowski.
Marion Fogli, a Swiss digital banking pioneer who co-founded Switzerland’s first digital private bank, now teaches what she calls Finance Made Human, translating money into a language that real people can actually understand, use, and feel at peace with.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
3:02 – Growing up “rich in love, not money” — Marion’s father’s story shapes her definition of wealth.
5:29 – Building Switzerland’s first digital private bank taught her: “The math is visible, but the behavior is where everything actually happens.”
8:07 – The human touch problem: digital banks see anxiety in login patterns hours before a client ever picks up the phone.
13:03 – On AI and investing: technology can hand you 30 stock picks, but not the conviction to hold them.
15:18 – Money scripts, explained: childhood beliefs about money live in the body, not the words — “a shallow breath, tight shoulders, a nervous laugh.”
17:21 – Three questions to surface your own money script: your body’s reaction, the sentence you heard most as a child, and the gap between what you say and what you do about money.
20:38 – The surgeon who earned over half a million and had no idea where it went: “You have income, and you have financial peace, and they’re not the same currency.”
23:07 – The cash experiment: Marion paid her kids in physical cash for a month instead of transfers — they ended up saving more.
27:48 – Why money is the last taboo: “It actually reveals your vulnerability.” It exposes worth, achievement, and security all at once.
32:06 – Unequal help given quietly to one child can destroy a family once it surfaces after a parent’s death.
36:16 – The three-bucket system: Oops Fund, Projects Fund, Freedom Fund — “I called it the Oops Fund.”
39:41 – “It’s about giving each Franc a job so the person can finally rest.”
45:41 – Financial education starts with one question: what do you want your money to do, short, medium, and long term?
52:48 – Marion’s definition of success: “It’s not what you accumulate. It’s what you can give without losing yourself.”
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Unfiltered Coffee Q&A, June 2026: On Trying, Waiting, and Learning to Receive
Find me on Substack, search for Bogumil Baranowski. See you there!This month's Unfiltered Coffee finds me recording thoughts from the road after a few weeks of travel that pulled me away from daily news and …
Notas do episódio
Find me on Substack, search for Bogumil Baranowski. See you there!
This month's Unfiltered Coffee finds me recording thoughts from the road after a few weeks of travel that pulled me away from daily news and toward ideas with a longer shelf life. I share reflections from Nir Eyal's book Belief, including the idea that successful people accumulate more losses simply because they try more things, and from Ray Madoff’s book Immortality and the Law, which traces how trusts extend the wishes of the dead into the lives of the living — a theme I see playing out more and more with clients and listeners alike.
I also revisit familiar ideas from new angles: why rules matter more than exceptions (even when someone's great uncle smoked and lived to 102), why liquidity makes stock ownership fundamentally different from owning a car or a private business, and why AI hasn't sped up the one thing that still can't be rushed in investing — waiting for conviction to pay off. I reflect on value as something constantly exchanged in daily life, not just in markets, and on how removing time constraints and billing pressure can free both investors and professionals to do their best work.
I close the episode with a round-up of recent standout conversations — Mike Nicoletti, Jack Schwager and George Coyle, Eric Pachman, and a rebroadcast of the Byron Tully episode on old money rules — plus a personal note on practicing receiving, not just giving, after a month of leaning on friends for help on a few occasions.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Everybody Inherits Something: Bogumil Baranowski on Money, Mortality & Living a Rich Life (The Gravitas Podcast with Anna Fata Shemin)
Reposted here is my interview on Anna Fata Shemin's wonderful podcast, the Gravitas Podcast. Sign up, follow her incredibly thoughtful work: https://open.spotify.com/episode/432S3SNi56e0njlHgjAa1B?si=nT910BvxRO6 …
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Reposted here is my interview on Anna Fata Shemin's wonderful podcast, the Gravitas Podcast. Sign up, follow her incredibly thoughtful work: https://open.spotify.com/episode/432S3SNi56e0njlHgjAa1B?si=nT910BvxRO6Y267cdG-IuA
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"Old money" is more than a TikTok aesthetic trend. There are real lessons to learn from the families who cultivate generational wealth, and they go far beyond the money.
This week I sit down with Bogumil Baranowski, a Polish-born investor who came to New York to live the American dream and has spent two decades managing wealth for families. He's the author of four books, a TEDx speaker, and the host of the podcasts Talking Billions and co-host of 100 Year Thinkers.
We talk about his childhood in communist Poland and how it influenced his career as an investor and Warren Buffett devotee. We discuss stewardship and how lasting family wealth has less to do with trust funds and more to do with family culture. He also discusses how money is not a prerequisite for living a truly rich life.
Links from this episode:
📚 Read Bogumil Baranowski's books and essays on managing money, wealth, and family legacy:
🎙️ Listen to Talking Billions, Bogumil Baranowski's podcast on investing, generational wealth, and living a rich life:
💼 Learn more about Blue Infinitas Capital, Bogumil's investment advisory firm:
Connect with Bogumil Baranowski: Website:
Connect with Gravitas: Instagram: @GravitasPodcast X: @annafatashemin Newsletter: http://annafatashemin.substack.com/
Write to me: [email protected]
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Byron Tully: The Secret Life of Old Money: What Wealthy Families Know That They Don't Talk About
Find me on Substack!This is a summer classic — a re-release of an enhanced audio episode that originally aired in 2023, now among the most listened-to Talking Billions episodes of all time. If you missed it …
Notas do episódio
Find me on Substack!
This is a summer classic — a re-release of an enhanced audio episode that originally aired in 2023, now among the most listened-to Talking Billions episodes of all time. If you missed it, this is your moment. If you've heard it before, welcome back.
Over the years, I've had the pleasure of spending time with Byron Tully beyond this microphone — in person at a Parisian café, and on Zoom — and he joined the show a second time as well. His writing continues to find new readers around the world, and for good reason.
Byron Tully is the author of The Old Money Book — with over 700 five-star reviews on Amazon — a grandson of a newspaper publisher, son of an oil industry executive, and a Paris-based writer who has spent a decade translating the time-tested values of America's wealth-preserving upper class into an accessible, practical guide for anyone willing to embrace them. https://theoldmoneybook.com/
3:00 — Byron shares his upbringing outside Houston, TX: comfortable, only child, grandfather in newspapers, father in oil. Grandfather's early advice: "You're gonna have to learn how to manage your behavior."
5:30 — Byron meets his wife from Boston; gets "neck deep" in old money culture — three-plus generations of wealth, manners, education, and core values.
8:00 — The 2008 financial crisis revelation: L.A. friends who "looked rich" — Beamers, McMansions — lost everything. Boston friends? Unaffected. Flash vs. substance. His wife tells him to stop complaining and write the book.
12:00 — Key insight: you don't need money to adopt old money values. The irony — follow the values and you'll start accumulating money because you stop chasing the next product. "The real awakening is to see money as an option-generating... freedom to choose."
18:00 — On conspicuous consumption: old money views extravagance as "the fear of poverty." The question to ask — who are you dressing for? "Maybe nobody. Maybe I'll just dress discreetly and appropriately."
24:00 — Sudden wealth and inheritance: Byron's personal experience with four inheritances. His advice: blow 1% first to purge the urge to consume, then ask how this windfall can change your life with purpose.
34:00 — Old money values unpacked: health, education, politeness, modesty, financial independence, work ethic. "You can't borrow money and say I'll pay you back with time. You just can't."
40:00 — Delayed gratification and long-term thinking: Amazon Prime erodes patience; the most precious things in life take time and "cannot be taken away from you."
47:00 — Honoring inherited wealth: Byron reflects on his father working past 10pm. "It's the love that my parents had for me." Why can't he waste it?
52:00 — On time: "Tomorrow is a promissory note, and yesterday's a canceled check." Social media is the enemy of time. Walking through Paris, looking at your phone — "What are you doing?"
57:00 — Definition of success: being of service. Parents giving The Old Money Book to the groomsmen. "That's success to me."
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Daniel Kertesz: The Family Outlives the Company — Don't Wait Until You're 80 | The Gray Rhinos Every Wealthy Family Must Face & Why Shirt Sleeves to Shirt Sleeves Is a Myth
Find me on Substack!Daniel Kertesz is a Zurich-based second-generation family entrepreneur, integrated family advisor, and author of Family Mind: Overcoming the Three-Generation Myth, who draws on his lived …
Notas do episódio
Find me on Substack!
Daniel Kertesz is a Zurich-based second-generation family entrepreneur, integrated family advisor, and author of Family Mind: Overcoming the Three-Generation Myth, who draws on his lived experience selling his family's multi-decade business to help wealthy families build resilient, values-driven legacies that outlast any single company.
3:00 — Daniel traces his origins: father fled Hungary in 1956, mother fled Romania; both built a company in Switzerland. "I'm officially the first born, but actually not. The company was first."
5:00 — On inherited trauma and silence: father survived the Holocaust, never spoke of it. "These stories were kind of heavy on our shoulder without us knowing."
9:44 — The sale of the family business: "I was not happy. I was just relieved." His mother's first question days after signing: "Are you happy now?" The emotional toll on the whole family — parents, siblings, spouse — came later.
13:38 — Packing up his office after 20+ years, leaving keys on the table as COVID began. "I didn't think that it would be the last time I would be there."
18:00 — Introducing family mind: European families put the business at the center; the shift is to put the family at the center. "The family has a longer lifespan than the company."
22:50 — Debunking the "shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves" myth: it's not fate, it's a focus problem. When you center the company, the myth often holds. When you center the family, there's a different path.
36:33 — The "gray rhinos": death, divorce, and silence are the biggest risks to family wealth — far more destructive than market risk — yet almost no one addresses them.
44:48 — "The biggest entrepreneurial lie is that I did everything for you." First, you do it for yourself. Acknowledging that gets you closer to the real questions.
1:02:03 — On what separates families that thrive: courage. "No advisor can give them that courage. It's their courage." And: "Don't wait until you're 80."
1:06:11 — Closing definition of success: "Look around the table. Look at all these people here. This is your life."
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Jack Schwager & George Coyle: The Edge Moves. So Must You. Zero Evidence, Total Belief. How the Youngest Market Wizards Found Edge Where No One Was Looking
Jack Schwager is the legendary author of the Market Wizards series and one of the most influential figures in trading literature, whose decades of interviewing elite traders have made him the definitive …
Notas do episódio
Jack Schwager is the legendary author of the Market Wizards series and one of the most influential figures in trading literature, whose decades of interviewing elite traders have made him the definitive chronicler of exceptional market performance; George Coyle is a hedge fund manager and deep-dive trading historian whose years of original research into the patterns of great traders catalyzed their co-authored Market Wizards: The Next Generation.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 — Bogumil shares personal origin story: as a Polish grad student in Paris, Jack's books gave him the courage to manage money. Jack jokes: "Not the first one."
5:15 — George on his obsession: years of writing deep-dive papers on Soros, Marcus, Druckenmiller — getting inside feedback that he "hit the nail on the head."
7:30 — Jack's biggest surprise from the first Market Wizards: how many enormously successful traders had multiple initial failures before breakthrough.
9:10 — George on the youngest cohort: small-cap shorting is "the last rock you'd flip over" — yet that's precisely why these traders found edge where no one looked.
11:00 — Jack on edge decay: trend following was transformative in the 60s–80s but got crowded; today, all edges evolve, and no edge is permanent.
14:20 — Advantage of starting young: smaller capital means smaller losses. Simon Russo (pseudonym) and Frohlich both had failures early — with little money — then scaled correctly.
30:33 — Jack: "A good trade is not necessarily a winning trade. A bad trade is not necessarily a losing trade." The process defines quality, not the outcome.
33:00 — Position sizing as the great differentiator: Gudecker sizes A+ trades 5–10x larger; Marcus did the same. Ed Thorpe proved even a losing game can win with proper sizing.
39:04 — Are trading skills learnable? Jack: Yes — Kulamaji went from $5,000 to $100M learning from others, but molded it entirely into his own methodology.
42:09 — George's five questions for aspiring Market Wizards: clear goals, process that matches temperament, overcoming detrimental traits, belief in self, persisting despite failure.
50:40 — Jack dismantles volatility as risk proxy: the drunk under the lamppost analogy — measuring what's easy vs. what's true.
57:49 — AI debate: Jack argues markets are a complex adaptive system — unlike physics, the rules change constantly, which keeps the door open for human traders.
1:03:52 — Jack's closing: readers of any Wizards book will get at least one or two things meaningfully beneficial if they're open-minded. This book adds a rare theme — wizards who stopped to ask: Is this what I really want to do with my life?
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
100 Year Thinkers, Ep. 8: The Problem with Modern Portfolio Theory | Robert Hagstrom on How Investing Lost Its Way
In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom explains why modern portfolio theory pulled investors away from business analysis and toward portfolio math.We discuss Markowitz, beta, efficient …
Notas do episódio
In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom explains why modern portfolio theory pulled investors away from business analysis and toward portfolio math.
We discuss Markowitz, beta, efficient markets, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, business-driven investing, owner earnings, benchmarks, and why thinking like a business owner changes how investors understand risk.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio, 25th Anniversary Edition
https://amzn.to/4uz8sZ3Topics covered:
Why Hagstrom thinks modern portfolio theory changed investing’s objective
The difference between volatility, variance and real investment risk
How Benjamin Graham and John Burr Williams framed risk around intrinsic value
Why beta became the dominant shorthand for risk
How the 1973-74 bear market helped institutionalize modern portfolio theory
Why Berkshire preserved the business owner’s lens
The “cathedral and casino” distinction between owning businesses and trading stocks
Owner earnings, return on invested capital and cost of capital
Why business owners often make better long-term equity investors
Look-through earnings and building a “mini Berkshire”
The difference between making money and beating a benchmark
How benchmarks can distort investor behavior
Why knowing yourself and your clients matters in portfolio construction
Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.
Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧
I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from the Excess Returns team. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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