Ten31 Timestamp: Gilt Trip

Oil flows through the Middle East are back near pre-war levels, but 10 year yields and the MOVE index are telling a different story.

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In this episode:

• Why Middle East crude flows are back to pre-war levels while diesel and refined products still lag
• What the US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls signals
• How the push for a China-free rare earth supply chain is going
• Why the MOVE index and French bond spreads are blowing out
• How stablecoins and Treasury bills could change what a dollar is
• Why Trump's comments on inflation and the debt point toward Bitcoin

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Back from the Ten31 portfolio retreat

00:00:47 - Middle East crude flows return to pre-war levels

00:03:19 - Diesel and refined products still lagging

00:04:25 - Tanker costs and Hormuz workarounds

00:07:06 - US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls

00:10:41 - Rare earths and the China-free supply chain

00:12:31 - Jamie Dimon calls for industrial policy

00:13:32 - 10 year yield and the MOVE index breakout

00:17:23 - Weak Treasury auctions and Judy Shelton

00:18:08 - France and Germany bond spread blowing out

00:22:08 - White House and the frontier AI labs

00:24:10 - Bessent, Shelton, and the Fed chair picks

00:26:27 - Trump says inflation could pay down the debt

00:27:20 - Stablecoins and demand for short term Treasuries

00:29:44 - How stablecoins could redefine the dollar

00:33:00 - Euro weakness and the Bitcoin to gold ratio

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