The Convergence – The Army’s Mad Scientist Podcast
- Episódios
- 118
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- irregular
- Último episódio
- 1 out 2026
Sobre o podcast
The Convergence is an Army Mad Scientist podcast with a distinct focus on divergent viewpoints, a challenging of assumptions, and insights from thought leaders and subject matter experts. The purpose of "The Convergence" is to explore technological, economic, and societal trends that disrupt the operational environment and to get a diversity of opinions on the character of warfare.
Episódios 118
120. Mapping the Future: Battlefield Dominance from Geospatial Data
[Editor’s Note: Today’s post welcomes Lieutenant General Jim P. Isenhower. and Mr. Jason Feser, for a podcast discussion on geospatial intelligence and its implications. In this episode of The Convergence …
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[Editor’s Note: Today’s post welcomes Lieutenant General Jim P. Isenhower. and Mr. Jason Feser, for a podcast discussion on geospatial intelligence and its implications. In this episode of The Convergence podcast, they explore the critical role of geospatial intelligence, the challenge of battlefield transparency in Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), and how emerging technologies are reshaping tactical maneuver. — Enjoy!]
Lieutenant General Jim P. Isenhower was commissioned in 1992 from the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York. He served in the 1st Armored Division, 1st Cavalry Division, 25th Infantry Division, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment, U.S. Army Pacific, 1st US Army, and at the Pentagon on the Joint Staff and the Army Staff. Lieutenant General Isenhower has commanded echelons through the Division level.
He also served as an assistant professor in the Department of History at the United States Military Academy, and as the executive officer to the Commanding General, US Army Pacific and to the Director of the Army Staff. He most recently served as the assistant Deputy Chief of Staff, G357 at Headquarters, Department of the Army. He currently serves as the Commanding General of the Combined Arms Command and Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. LTG Isenhower has participated in operational deployments in Panama, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and throughout the IndoPacific. He served three combat tours in Iraq in Mosul, Baghdad, and the Diyala Province.
LTG Isenhower’s military education includes the Infantry Officer Basic Course, the Armor Officer Advanced Course, the Command and General Staff College, and the National War College. He holds a BS from the U.S. Military Academy, an MS from the National War College and an MA and PhD from Duke University.
CW4 Jason Feser (ret.) currently serves as the Branch Chief for the Data Generation and Production Branch, Warfighter Support Division within the U.S. Army Geospatial Center (AGC). In this role, Mr. Feser oversees a staff of fifteen civilians and contractors that enable geospatial data collection, processing, and dissemination to the U.S. Army’s generating and operating force. Mr. Feser is responsible for three critical product lines, at various scales, to meet the Army’s requirements for digital mapping and geospatial analysis for customers at all echelons.
Prior to coming to the Army Geospatial Center as a civilian, Mr. Feser spent 27 years in the Army as a Geospatial Engineer, and Geospatial Engineering Technician, before retiring in 2019. Mr. Feser’s career included deployments to Bosnia, Kosovo, Jordan and multiple deployments in Iraq. Throughout his career, Mr. Feser’s has been devoted to bringing advanced geospatial techniques, resources and tools to the lowest tactical level. He has been a part of several Army initiatives focused on transformation and innovation, to include Stryker Brigade Combat Team transformation, and fielding the first Buckeye High Resolution Mapping System in Mosul, Iraq.
Mr. Feser is currently engaged in transforming AGC’s Engineer Route Study, Regional Terrain Planner, and Urban Tactical Planner Product lines. This transformation includes updating production pipelines, managing federated finishing amongst Army Geospatial Engineer Teams, and leveraging exquisite capabilities and tools found within the broader U.S. Army Corps of Engineer Research Development Centers.
The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- The convergence of proliferated commercial and military remote sensing, and pervasive network connectivity has created an unprecedented level of battlefield transparency. Sensing capabilities across multiple domains now empower forces to detect and track surface activity down to an eight-digit grid coordinate in near-real time. This evolution has turned modern Large-Scale Combat Operations into an unforgiving competition between "the hiders and the finders," establishing a battlefield dynamic where any asset that can be seen will be targeted and destroyed.
- Embedded geospatial engineers within Army formations provide the vital link that translates raw imagery and sensor feeds into structured, actionable Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT). By synthesizing foundational raster layers, vector terrain features, and web-based services, analysts build the comprehensive operational picture required for effective command and control. Geospatial analysis must penetrate multiple layers of physical, environmental, cultural, and infrastructural data so commanders understand the full multi-domain complexity of the battlespace.
- Real-world tactical maneuver experiences, such as operating within canal-dense agricultural networks like Iraq's "bread basket," illustrate the lifesaving value of granular micro-terrain intelligence. In environments where off-road mobility is constrained by soil composition, irrigation ditches, or concealed natural obstacles, high-resolution route and terrain planning directly mitigates operational risk. This tactical reality proves that exquisite strategic-level terrain data is only valuable if it can be rapidly tailored, shared, and exploited by tactical Warfighters at the bleeding edge before they cross the line of departure.
- The sheer volume of geospatial and sensor data flowing into operational command posts routinely exceeds human analytic capacity, necessitating the immediate integration of artificial intelligence with this data. Automated feature extraction, computer vision, and change-detection systems can rapidly identify critical terrain modifications and enemy positions from massive imagery streams. Harnessing these automated processing pipelines shifts military geospatial analysts away from manual digitizing, allowing them to focus on predictive reasoning and drastically compressing the sensor-to-shooter cycle.
- Realistic operational preparation and mission rehearsal depend heavily on high-fidelity, authoritative geospatial data feeding advanced military simulations. The Army's Synthetic Training Environment (STE) and Next-Generation Constructive (NGC) simulations rely on this data to accurately replicate the complex friction, geometry, and obstacles of real-world terrain. By embedding accurate terrain data into these advanced training architectures, the Army ensures Warfighters can experience "safe failure" and hone collective decision-making against realistic adversary capabilities before entering actual combat.
Key Terms and Definitions:
- Raster Data: This is a type of data that consists of a matrix of cells (or pixels) organized into rows and columns (or a grid) where each cell contains a value representing information, such as temperature.
- Vector Data: This type of data is represented by points, lines, and polygons and is used to represent geographic features in the real world.
- Geospatial Services: These are web-based services that provide access to geospatial data and functionality, such as online maps and routing services.
- Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT): This is intelligence about the human activity on earth derived from the exploitation and analysis of imagery and geospatial information.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the T2COM G-2’s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of War, Department of the Army, or the U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (T2COM).
119. No Winning Without Fighting: How China’s View of Hybrid Warfare Has Evolved with Dr. Howard Wang
“The PLA expected Russia to run the same playbook it did with Crimea on a larger scale. And it didn’t work.” [Editor’s Note: Today’s post welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Howard Wang, who recently …
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“The PLA expected Russia to run the same playbook it did with Crimea on a larger scale. And it didn’t work.”
[Editor’s Note: Today’s post welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Howard Wang, who recently served as a subject matter expert on our Ukraine, the Middle East, and Proxy Wars around the Globe: Emergent Trends and Associated Implications for the Joint Force panel discussion during the T2COM G-2’s Mad Scientist / William and Mary Great Power Competition & Conflict in the Age of Authoritarian Collusion virtual event on 27 January 2026 — check out the top ten take-aways from this informative event here.
In this episode of The Convergence podcast, Dr. Wang explores how China’s observations of Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine have transformed their approach to contemporary conflict, challenging their long-held precept of “winning without fighting” and forcing the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) re-calibration of its hybrid warfare concept — with cognitive warfare now being harnessed to complement kinetic operations to achieve battlefield success. Dr. Wang also describes how the U.S. can harden itself against the PLA's "systems destruction warfare" -- Enjoy!]
Dr. Howard Wang is a political scientist at RAND. From 2024-2025, he was detailed to the Office of the Secretary of Defense as a China Policy Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. Prior to RAND, he was a policy analyst for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he researched U.S.-China military competition and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
Dr. Wang’s primary research interests include Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political decision-making and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strategy and doctrine. He completed his Doctorate in International Affairs (DIA) at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he was awarded distinction for his thesis research on the CCP’s sea power strategy. Dr. Wang completed his Master’s in Public Policy at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy and his bachelor’s degree at Boston University. Dr. Wang co-authored China’s Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War: Perceived New Strategic Opportunities and an Emerging Model of Hybrid Warfare, RAND Report, 22 May 2025.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Dr. Wang to discuss China’s approach to hybrid warfare, the implications of their “win without fighting” strategy, and what this means for the U.S. Army and Joint Force. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation with him:
- Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine led China’s PLA to shift its thoughts on hybrid warfare. Following Russia’s failed gambit to rapidly seize Ukraine in 2022, the PLA became more accepting of the idea that a confrontation with the U.S. may result in a large-scale conflict. Rather than abandoning their hybrid warfare concept, they adjusted it to incorporate a number of non-kinetic methods to help the PLA achieve kinetic success on the battlefield.
- The PLA is resigning itself to the idea that winning without fighting will fail, and believe that the U.S. may in fact instigate conflict in any confrontation over Taiwan, especially as China grows closer to power parity with the U.S. It is impossible to say whether the CCP will have the political will to engage in a protracted conflict with the U.S., but the PLA has been steadily preparing for it — with the CCP calling on the Chinese people to prepare for total war. The CCP has sharply stepped up this rhetoric, especially given Russia’s stalemated war of attrition in Ukraine.
- The PLA will seek to use the Cognitive Domainto exploit seams in U.S.-Western alliances and partnerships and sow domestic discord across the U.S. The PLA will also employ cyberattacks to target U.S. Command and Control systems and deepfakes of U.S. Joint Force commanders giving fake orders to undermine unity of command. They may even seek to generate ethnic strife between the U.S. and its Allies and partners through its disinformation machine. The objective of these gray zone tactics is to disrupt U.S. Joint Force decision making at all levels and echelons, in the event of a conflict.
- The PLA has an inflated perception of Starlink’s capabilities and has a worst-case mindset regarding its role the Space Domain. They believe, through Starlink’s modular payloads, that the U.S. has achieved real-time sensing, processing, and transmission of battlefield data -- seamlessly integrating data links to achieve precise position, navigation, timing, and target surveillance. The PLA believes this satellite constellation provides the U.S. with one-way battlefield transparency — an asymmetric advantage. The PLA will likely adopt a comprehensive strategy to counter Starlink, including electronic warfare, cyber warfare, and anti-satellite lasers and microwaves.
- While the PLA sees fewer opportunities to deter any future conflict with the U.S., this does not mean war is inevitable. Still, the U.S. can posture itself for any potential conflict with China by continuing to develop capabilities that harden us against the PLA’s “systems destruction warfare” — i.e., its ability to disrupt our understanding and perception of the battlespace, induce paralysis, neutralize our ability to function, and negate our ability to project power and wage warfare — by building redundant communications capabilities and procedures to combat disinformation across all echelons.Plans like the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR) can also identify concrete opportunities that enhance combined lethality, leverage shared capabilities, and strengthen the defense industrial base amongst the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific Allies and partners, presenting a formidable challenge to China, should deterrence fail.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence podcast!If you enjoyed this post, check out the T2COM G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1.0, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1.1, How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team, 10 Things You Didn’t Know About the PLA, and BiteSize China weekly topics.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-2, How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023 and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE (including Russia’s war in Ukraine war since 2024 and other ongoing competitions and conflicts around the globe). Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment Intelligence Posts.
… as well as previous Mad Scientist Laboratory content, exploring this aspect of the Operational Environment:
Challenging Reality: Chinese Cognitive Warfare and the Fight to Hack Your Brain, by Dr. John Ringquist
A Katechon for the Cognitive Domain, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Kevin Williamson
In the Cognitive War – The Weapon is You! by Dr. Zac Rogers
An Intelligentized PLA: A FICINT Scenario for INDO-PACOM, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano
AI as a Propaganda Accelerant, by Aldrin Yashko
Influence at Machine Speed: The Coming of AI-Powered Propaganda by MAJ Chris Telley
The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling
Damnatio Memoriae through AI and What is the Threshold? Assessing Kinetic Responses to Cyber-Attacks, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy
China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan
Information Advantage Contribution to Operational Success, by CW4 Charles Davis
Gaming Information Dominance and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1) by Kate Kilgore
Sub-threshold Maneuver and the Flanking of U.S. National Security and Is Ours a Nation at War? U.S. National Security in an Evolved — and Evolving — Operational Environment, by Dr. Russell Glenn
The Erosion of National Will – Implications for the Future Strategist, by Dr. Nick Marsella
A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat, by 1LT Carlin Keally
Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated videos
Weaponized Information: One Possible Vignette and Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes
LikeWar — The Weaponization of Social Media
The Death of Authenticity: New Era Information Warfare
Active Defense: Shaping the Threat Environment and The Information Disruption Industry and the Operational Environment of the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Vincent H. O’Neil , as well as his associated video presentation from 20 May 2020, part of the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events.
Non-Kinetic War, Global Entanglement and Multi-Reality Warfare and associated podcast, with COL Stefan Banach (USA-Ret.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of War, Department of the Army, or the U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (T2COM).
118. Sinews of War: A gaming Approach to Sustaining the Force
[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory blog site know that wargaming is a vital cognitive tool for understanding the complexities of the evolving Operational Environment (OE). Wargaming …
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[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory blog site know that wargaming is a vital cognitive tool for understanding the complexities of the evolving Operational Environment (OE). Wargaming helps facilitate “cognitive warfighting proficiencies” among its practitioners. Unlike passive classroom lectures, wargames provide an immersive environment where Soldiers and Leaders can follow their ideas to their logical conclusions, test new concepts, and—crucially—experience failure in a safe, consequence-free setting. This “safe failure” is seen as essential for developing the creativity and agility required to avoid operational surprise on the actual battlefield.
Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features COL Mike Barnett and returning proclaimed Mad Scientist Joe Chretien, both from the Sustainment Exercise and Simulation Directorate, Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM), Fort Lee, Virginia. We discussed how they incorporated their Sinews of War: Theater Sustainment Operations wargame into Practical Exercises in the Sustainment Center of Excellence’s Programs of Instruction (POIs). Read on to learn how wargaming is providing our Sustainment Soldiers and Leaders with fail-safe experiences to learn critical warfighting skills — enabling them to reflect on experiential, shared events with their peers during Professional Military Education (PME)].
[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]Following 15 years in various Armor enlisted and officer assignments, COL Mike Barnett became a Functional Area 57, Models and Simulations (M&S) Officer in 2011. He served as the Chief of Knowledge Management at the First Infantry Division and 8th Army, in both deployed and garrison operating environments. COL Barnett is a graduate of the Command and General Staff College and the U. S. Army War College at Carlisle, Pennsylvania. In his current assignment, COL Barnett leads the Sustainment Exercise and Simulation Directorate at Ft. Lee, Virginia, where he and his team support Army-wide sustainment simulations for Division, Corps, and Army Service Component Command collective command post training events.
Joe Chretien is a retired M&S Army Lieutenant Colonel who has served in multiple roles — including wargame developer and facilitator for the U.S. Army War College, where he incorporated experiential educational methodologies into the curriculum. Of note, Mr. Chretien is the co-author of several Matrix Wargames such as Kaliningrad, One-Belt-One-Road, Crisis in the South China Sea, First Contact, and Sinews of War: Theater Sustainment Operations. He currently serves as a Department of the Army Civilian assigned as the Deputy Director, Logistics Exercise and Simulation Directorate (LESD) for the National Simulation Center. He is responsible for managing, planning, organizing, and directing an authorized workforce of military and Department of the Army Civilians. He additionally oversees contractor deliverables in support of the LESD mission.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with COL Barnett and Mr. Chretien to talk about Sinews of War — a new game they designed to help teach and train Army Sustainers, their experience play testing it, and what they see as the future of wargaming in the Army. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation with them:
- Within the Sustainment Exercise and Simulation Directorate at the Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM), COL Barnett and Mr. Chretien created the Sinews of Warwargame that helps U.S. Army Sustainers (e.g., Ordnance, Transportation, Quartermaster, and Logistics Corps Soldiers and Leaders) visualize the fight and think critically about their role sustaining combat operations and making decisions on the battlefield.
- They argue that wargames like Sinews of Warenhance training and education because students are actively invested in the learning via engaging practical exercises, as opposed to more passive learning methods (e.g., lectures via presentations — aka “death by PowerPoint”). Wargaming is experiential learning — providing students both agency and motivation that boosts their critical thinking and problem solving.
- One of the biggest lessons learned from this game is just how vital protection is as a Warfighting Function — critical to mission success at all echelons on the battlefield. Sustainers experienced how assets positioned or emplaced without the requisite protection inevitably led to their loss and, eventually, a breakdown in the rearm/refuel/resupply chain. Gaming provides students an iterative process within a safe-to-fail environment, enabling them to learn from their mistakes and develop the requisite skill sets to win decisively on the battlefield.
- COL Barnett and Mr. Chretien theorized that a wargame — possibly one that is digitized — could be a more effective learning tool since that’s what younger Soldiers and the next generation of recruits will be comfortable with. Soldiers are quick to adopt the gaming aspect of learning — a connection that past instructors may not have been able to establish as effectively through traditional methods of instruction.
- However, Mr. Chretien is not overly sanguine regarding the future of wargaming in the Army — he senses the institutional will to embrace it as an effective learning mechanism doesn’t exist throughout the force. If the Army values this type of learning, it has the opportunity to increase its reliance on wargaming across PME — integrating it into POIs within its Centers of Excellence and Schools. In contrast to the Army, he noted that the U.S. Air Force and the Marine Corps have embraced and successfully integrated wargaming into their respective curricula.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence podcast!
If you enjoyed this post, check out the T2COM G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1.0, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-1, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, 10 Things You Didn’t Know About the PLA, and BiteSize China weekly topics.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including T2COM OE Threat Assessment 1-2, How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023 and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE (including Russia’s war in Ukraine war since 2024 and other ongoing competitions and conflicts around the globe). Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment Intelligence Posts.
Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:
Seven Reflections of a “Red Commander” — Lessons Learned Playing the Adversary in DoD Wargames, Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check, and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
From Campus to Command: The William & Mary Wargaming Lab and associated podcast, with Luke Miller.
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)
Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Arnel David
Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates
Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Sebastian Bae
Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Andrew Olson
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
>>>Announcement: Annotate your calendars now — the Army Mad Scientist / William & Mary Great Power Competition & Conflict in an Age of Authoritarian Collusion Virtual Event, on Tuesday, 27JAN26:
Who: The Army Mad Scientist Initiative and William & Mary’s Whole of Government Center of Excellence
What: A virtual event exploring the Operational Environment implications of emerging trends gleaned from contemporary conflicts and proxy wars, as well as the expanding adversarial influence and presence in the Global South and polar regions, through the lens of authoritarian collusion
When: Tuesday, 27 January 2026
Where: Virtual via Zoom.gov; in-person on campus for local T2COM G-2 and FCC participants
Why: To learn from subject matter experts within academia and the Department of War about the implications of authoritarian collusion, ultimately expanding our understanding of the Operational Environment
Register to attend this informative event virtually at our EventBrite site.
>>>Reminder: Army Mad Scientist is CALLING ALL CREATORS with our Multi-Media Contest for imaginative thinkers who seek to showcase their ideas about Army Transformation in novel, alternative ways. Check out the contest’s guidelines here, consult your inner muse, unleash your creative talent, get cracking developing your entry, and submit it to [email protected]</
117. From Campus to Command: The William & Mary Wargaming Lab with Luke Miller
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society co-hosted our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, last …
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[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society co-hosted our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, last November, exploring:
- Trends in hobbyist wargaming;
- How wargames can address unconventional and neglected aspects of the Operational Environment;
- How wargaming can provide experiential learning for Professional Military Education (PME); and
- How technology is enhancing wargaming.
Attended by approximately 150 participants, with an additional 20-odd virtual participants live streaming it remotely, the conference facilitated an open dialogue with wargamers from both inside and outside the military (e.g., professional, commercial, and hobbyist gamers).
At that conference, we hosted a Gen Z & Wargaming Round Table for the sizeable contingent of students attending the conference from Georgetown University, the University of Nebraska Omaha, and the College of William & Mary.
Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features Luke Miller, who attended our conference last year, is a wargame designer, and is this academic year’s Director of the William & Mary Wargaming Lab. Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Miller to discuss the role of wargaming and the university’s on-going wargaming projects with the War Department, his thoughts on wargame design and education in the military, and the future of wargaming — Read on!]
[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]
Luke Miller is an undergraduate student at the College of William and Mary, studying International Relations and Economics. During the Summer of 2024, he was an e-Intern with the TRADOC G-2, where he researched national security threats to the U.S. and proposed solutions for Army adaptation to emerging challenges. Specifically, Mr. Miller conducted focused research on U.S. Army preparedness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. Mr. Miller is also a member of The Alexander Hamilton Society, a Global Scholar with the William & Mary Global Research Institute, and game designer and now Director of the William and Mary Wargaming Lab.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Luke Miller to discuss the value of wargaming as part of higher education, designing games for both students and defense partners, and emulating an accurate and realistic red team. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- The College of William and Mary’s Wargaming Lab, within their Whole of Government Center of Excellence, is known as the first fully undergraduate-led wargaming design initiative in the country. Through support from subject matter experts in the defense and national security fields, the Lab creates wargames and games for national security policy analysis and career professionals.
- The Wargaming Lab designs wargames from the ground up, including researching content, game mechanics, and Specifically, the team has created various scenario-based micro-games, table-top games, and boardgames, focusing on qualitative results that can support policy analysis for specific customers, such as General Mark Matthews (USAF-Ret.).
- The beauty of working through this problem set in an academic forum are the different perspectives brought by each individual student, using background knowledge from their varying degrees, such as international relations, economics, and physics, to create a well-rounded and effective tool to help make decisions.
- The resurgence of great power competition has played a pivotal role in the national defense and security field’s growing focus on wargaming, as wargames can be a useful way to abstract many major aspects that feed into large-scale combat operations (LSCO). Wargames are inherently better at representing two or more great powers in a LSCO fight than counterterrorism or counterinsurgency.
- As academic wargaming labs are becoming more abundant and established, the U.S. Army has the opportunity to partner with these groups as an inexpensive and productive way to leverage their broad sets of expertise and alternative, innovative approaches to tackling hard problems.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 02 October 2025!
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including How Russia Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations and the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then review the following related Mad Scientist content:
From Data to Dominance: AI & Gaming to Create Decision Advantage and associated podcast, with Jonathan Pan
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)
The agenda, presenter and panelist biographies, their respective presentations, and associated videos from Army Mad Scientist’s Game On! Wargaming & the OE Conference at Georgetown University, 06-07 November 2024, as well as the Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024
Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
116. Do Androids Dream of Electric War: The Reality of Autonomous Weapons with Dr. Mark Bailey
“I think there’s a moral question that one has to ask in general about whether it’s appropriate for a machine to make a decision as to whether or not a human ought to live or die” [Editor’s Note: As observed in …
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“I think there’s a moral question that one has to ask in general about whether it’s appropriate for a machine to make a decision as to whether or not a human ought to live or die”
[Editor’s Note: As observed in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:
“The increase in the production, employment, and success of uncrewed systems means the Army can expect to encounter these systems across the breadth and depth of LSCO.”
Contemporary conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East have witnessed the burgeoning use of autonomous weapons — empowering lesser states (i.e., Ukraine) and non-state actors (i.e., the Houthi Movement in Yemen) to conduct asymmetric strikes against nations with more robust military capabilities (i.e., Russia and Israel, respectively). These capabilities are transforming warfighting in both the air/land and land/sea littoral, eroding and possibly negating traditional concepts of air and naval superiority. The battlefield successes achieved using these autonomous technologies has led to them being rapidly proliferated around the globe, with Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCO) like the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) effectively employing armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) against both their criminal competitors and the Mexican authorities alike.
In the ongoing race to develop more effective (read lethal) combat systems capable of overcoming kinetic and electromagnetic countermeasures, some nations are integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Vision (MV) with Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) — in essence removing human operators from within or on the OODA loop. U.S. policy on LAWS is documented in DoD Directive 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, which includes the following statement:
“Autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems will be designed to allow commanders and operators to exercise appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force.”
Per the U.S. Congress’s Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems:
“U.S. policy does not prohibit the development or employment of LAWS. Although the United States is not known to currently have LAWS in its inventory, some senior military and defense leaders have stated that the United States may be compelled to develop LAWS if U.S. competitors choose to do so. At the same time, a growing number of states and nongovernmental organizations are appealing to the international community for regulation of or a ban on LAWS due to ethical concerns.”
Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features Dr. Mark Bailey, Department Chair, Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, National Intelligence University, exploring the tension that exists between the rapid convergence of AI and battlefield autonomy and our national values requiring transparency and oversight in our use of lethal force. With this tension, there is also an associated asymmetry in ethics — our adversaries are racing ahead with their plans to harness the power of AI on the battlefield. Military thinkers within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) embrace its prospects as a leapfrog technology that could allow China to skip technological development stages and rapidly overmatch U.S. capabilities. Russia’s Vladimir Putin proclaimed “Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all of mankind… Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” Read on to learn more about the implications of LAWS in the Operational Environment!]
Dr. Mark Bailey writes about the intersection between artificial intelligence, complexity, and national security. He is an associate professor at the National Intelligence University, where he is the Department Chair for Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, as well as the Director of the Biological and Computational Intelligence Center. His work has appeared in publications such as the journal Futures, Nautilus, and Homeland Security Today, and he was named to Homeland’s 50 Trailblazers of 2023. Previously, he worked as a data scientist on several AI programs in the U.S. Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community. He is also an Officer in the U.S. Army Reserve.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Bailey to discuss his thoughts on AI and autonomous weapons, how their rise is impacting the U.S. Army, and how our adversaries may be poised to use them against us. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- Contemporary AI systems that rely on large quantities of parameters present a challenge when attempting to decipher their “thought process” for making predictions – the “black box” issue. The military acquisition system is predicated on the notion that technology will perform reliably and predictably in different types of operational environments. If AI systems cannot be aligned to human expectations, it becomes much more difficult to control which is a critical aspect of military applications, such as LAWS.
- When addressing the link between AI and lethal weapons, a larger discussion becomes whether it’s appropriate for a machine to decide whether a human ought to live or die. Removing this aspect of humanity or cost of war makes way for a much more brutal battlefield.
- Overwhelmingly, the speed at which technology is developed far outpaces our ability to reflect on its appropriate use. Updating the military’s acquisition process to respect the uncertainty around AI systems will support an improved defense innovation structure that can successfully leverage these emerging technologies. Our acquisition process must account for aspects of AI, such as explainability and alignment, to ensure its application is effective and suitable.
- According to the AI community, artificial general intelligence (AGI) – AI that is cognitively equivalent to a human in all areas – is on the horizon, leading to artificial super intelligence (ASI) – AI that far exceeds human capability. The line between weak AI systems that do one thing well and this more general type of intelligence will continue to be blurred with significant improvements to Large Language Models (LLMs) that fall in the middle.
- Adversaries will likely view the morality of using LAWS differently than the U.S. — we must be prepared for this asymmetry of ethics in planning to achieve strategic outcomes. Ideally, a global consensus on the appropriate use of AI in military applications, similar to that of nuclear weapons, will act as a deterrent. Ironically, with the democratization of AI technology, nuclear components are much easier to interdict, creating an additional challenge for the global community.
- The integration of AI into lethal military applications, such as autonomous weapons, is happening now. The Operational Environment is becoming much more dangerous, creating a challenge the U.S. Army must grapple with, while remaining true to our national values and ethical standards.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 11 September 2025, when we sit down with Luke Miller, Director of the College of William and Mary’s Wargaming Lab, to discuss the university’s on-going wargaming projects with the DoD, his thoughts on wargame design and education in the military, and the future of wargaming.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then review the following related TRADOC G-2 and Mad Scientist Laboratory content:
Adaptation… Ukraine Conflict’s UAV Evolution, by Colin Christopher
Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps, by Dr. Nathan White
On the Ground and In the Air in Ukraine, and associated podcast with Wolfgang Hagarty
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore
Asymmetric Warfare across Multiple Domains, by Ethan Sah
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas
“Own the Night,” as well as Former Deputy Secretary of Defense and proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work‘s presentation from the Disruption and the Future Operational Environment Conference on AI and Future Warfare: The Rise of the Robots (and Army Futures Command), and his Modern War Institute podcast assessing the future battlefield.
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)
Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back! by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown
Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos
Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast
“Intelligentization” and a Chinese Vision of Future War
The PLA and UAVs – Automating the Battlefield and Enhancing Training
115. 15 Layers Deep: Supporting Soldiers with Geospatial Intelligence
[Editor’s Note: As observed in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations: “LSCO will be marked by the democratization and proliferation of advanced …
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[Editor’s Note: As observed in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:
“LSCO will be marked by the democratization and proliferation of advanced technologies and hyperconnected global communications, creating an increasingly transparent battlefield that makes it difficult to hide from the enemy.”
Today’s The Convergence podcast features Jason Feser from the U.S. Army Geospatial Center exploring just how transparent the contemporary battlefield has become. With the convergence of sensing technologies, democratized space, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML), this capability is empowering our Soldiers with a granular situational awareness of the Operational Environment, down to an eight-digit (plus!) grid reference. Modern LSCO is now a competition between the hiders and the finders — if a target can be seen, it can be killed! Our adversaries have similar sensing capabilities — but in the contemporary Operational Environment, warfare favors those who can innovate tactically. The tactical advantage offered by this granular level of battlefield transparency is lost if it can’t be shared with and used by Warfighters at the bleeding edge of the fight — Read on!]
CW4 Jason Feser (USA-Ret.) currently serves as Branch Chief for Data Generation and Production, Warfighter Support Division, within the U.S. Army Geospatial Center (AGC). In this role, Mr. Feser oversees a staff of civilians and contractors that enable geospatial data collection, processing, and dissemination to the U.S. Army’s generating and operating force. Mr. Feser is responsible for three critical product lines to meet the Army’s requirements for digital mapping and geospatial analysis for customers at all echelons — the AGC’s Engineer Route Study, Regional Terrain Planner, and Urban Tactical Planner. This includes updating the production pipelines, managing Army Geospatial Engineer Teams, and leveraging capabilities and tools found within the broader U.S. Army Corps of Engineer Research Development Centers and Joint Communities.
Prior to joining the AGC as a civilian, Mr. Feser spent 27 years in the Army as a Geospatial Engineer and Geospatial Engineering Technician, before retiring in 2019. Mr. Feser spent over fifteen years at the tactical level before moving on to Joint and Strategic assignments. His assignments included serving in multiple Engineer Brigade Headquarters in Heavy Divisions; a Branch Chief in the IDG at JAC Molesworth; NATO Special Operations Intel Branch at the NATO Intel Fusion Center; Senior Geospatial Officer and Commander at the 512th Geospatial Planning Cell; and Military Advisor to the AGC Director. Mr. Feser’s career included deployments to Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Jordan. He holds an Undergraduate degree in Applied Science, with an Emphasis in Geospatial Information Systems, and he has completed professional military technical training throughout his career.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Feser to explore the AGC, the role advanced technologies play in battlefield transparency, and our adversaries’ capabilities to observe and sense the Operational Environment. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.
- Geospatial engineers are embedded within U.S. Army formations to conduct Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) analysis on elements of the Operational Environment that will impact operations, including cultural, institutional, and physical aspects that may challenge our forces across multiple domains. The Army Geospatial Center (AGC) supports these geospatial engineers by providing critical data sets and services necessary to support command and control systems, broad area analysis, and specialized products.
- AGC uses numerous Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) to analyze imagery, tabular data, and unstructured data to build databases of information that are tied to the Earth’s surface. This information consists of many different categories of data – for example, vector data that can describe the road material composition and durability of a Main Supply Route (MSR), along with its width, changes in elevation (from laser Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR]), and satellite imagery of choke points and potential ambush sites.
- Terrain is of vital importance to any unmanned system employed in the Operational Environment. Unmanned Ground Vehicles and Aerial Systems (UGVs/UAVs) require a detailed, high–resolution understanding of terrain so that these autonomous systems can conduct specific missions — even with limited access by a remote operator. Unmanned systems will also enable the U.S. Army to collect extensive geospatial information — specifically from the intersection of modality sensing (e.g., Electro-Optical [EO], LiDAR, and radar) — to create an improved, granular understanding of the Operational Environment.
- In the commercial space, efforts are underway to embed 15 modalities into a single satellite image (e.g., LiDAR, elevation, EO, radar, gravity, etc.) for every 10–meter pixel. This creates a 64-bit description of that 10m space that informs the Warfighter regarding battlefield conditions impacting on operations.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) will impact our ability to generate detailed data on key terrain features at a faster and cheaper rate. These capabilities will also provide discrete data classification and additional fidelity — enabling us to produce more accurate assessments for operations — at machine speed.
- In Ukraine, both Russian and Ukrainian forces are employing Electronic Warfare (EW) to disrupt UAV and UGV operations. With increased fidelity from AI/ML support, autonomous systems can continue to operate in EW-jammed environments, relying on accurate geospatial information onboard to guide their navigation.
- China and Russia have similar geospatial technology, but they do not have the same mission command mentality as the U.S. — Russian soldiers below the O-6 level do not have access to geospatial information or maps. Neither China nor Russia empowers their soldiers at the lowest echelons to make decisions. Geospatial information grants the U.S. Army and its Warfighters an operational advantage by empowering mission command in a LSCO fight.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 28 August 2025, when we sit down with Dr. Mark Bailey, Department Chair, Cyber Intelligence and Data Science, National Intelligence University, and author of Unknowable Minds: Philosophical Insights on AI and Autonomous Weapons. We’ll talk with Dr. Bailey about the “black box” implications of AI, the legality and ethics of autonomous weapons, and how our adversaries are approaching and responding to these same issues.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post content:
Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization and War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader
Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target, by Team Sullivan’s Travels
Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors
The Future of Ground Warfare, and associated podcast
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)
114. Data to Dominance: AI & Gaming to Create Decision Advantage with Jon Pan
“Agentic warfare is here, whether we welcome it or not. The era of military planners manually gathering limited data and compiling static crisis response options on briefing slides is over. In the next few …
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“Agentic warfare is here, whether we welcome it or not. The era of military planners manually gathering limited data and compiling static crisis response options on briefing slides is over. In the next few years, the defense community will see the emergence of AI agents representing military planners, logisticians, intelligence officers, and operators that harness centuries of stored experience in real-time digital collaboration, generating uniquely effective crisis solutions for human decision-makers in seconds…. First-mover advantage in leveraging this capability will not merely ensure battlefield dominance — it will be overwhelmingly decisive at every level of warfare. It could herald the dawn of a new defense paradigm, supplanting the outdated defense-industrial complex with an agile, AI-driven agentic base. The stakes could not be higher….” — Agentic Warfare Is Here. Will America Be the First Mover? War on the Rocks, 23 April 2025.
[Editor’s Note: The article cited above predicts that agentic capabilities — i.e., those Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems that can operate independently, making decisions and executing actions without constant human supervision — when “employed by [our] adversaries… will dramatically outperform traditional Western paradigms of 24- to 72-hour decision cycles and wartime initiative.” While not specifically using the term “agentic warfare,” today’s The Convergence podcast features Jonathan Pan describing how this capability could accelerate the Army’s Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), enabling us to achieve decision advantage and fight at machine speed — Enjoy!]
Jonathan Pan is the co-founder and CEO of Exia Labs, a defense technology startup. Exia’s products include Blue, an Army brigade decision support tool, and Recon, an Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment Artificial Intelligence (AI) agent. Prior to founding Exia, Mr. Pan was Senior Director of Product Management at the innovation unit of Walmart, where he led AI projects focused on shopping search and immersive shopping. He also led product and content teams at Amazon, Meta, and Riot Games, and served as an advisor for the SXSW Conference Internet and Gaming tracks between 2017 – 2022.
Prior to joining industry, Mr. Pan served in the U.S. Army, beginning his career as a platoon leader in the 2nd Infantry Division in the Republic of Korea. He deployed to Afghanistan as part of 5th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division. After leaving active duty, he briefly served in the New York Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 69th Infantry Regiment. His awards and decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, the Combat Infantryman Badge, the Expert Infantryman Badge, and the Parachutist Badge. He continues his service in the Army as a civilian Army Reserve Ambassador for the state of Washington, where he focuses on increasing awareness of the United States Army Reserve among local communities, civic leaders, and state legislators, with the goal of enhancing support for the Army Reserve, its personnel, and their families.
Mr. Pan is also a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, where he conducts research on the intersection of artificial intelligence and wargames. He has a Master of Business Administration from New York University and received a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Baruch College, City University of New York.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Pan to discuss the impact of AI on achieving decision advantage and explore how our adversaries are innovating in this space. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.
- Decision advantage is the ability to make better and faster decisions than an opponent. At brigade and below echelons, where staffs are smaller with more junior Soldiers, the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) is slow and will only become harder in the case of staff reductions. AI offers the opportunity for machine speed to assist humans with quickly executing processes that could be automated and fosters human creativity and judgement. Currently, these tools have not been focused on brigades and below as much as they have been geared toward the Army enterprise at higher echelons (e.g., division and above).
- China is well positioned to succeed in the AI field for two reasons: 1) their talent pool for AI research is deep, and 2) Chinese gaming culture is prolific and extensive. China – a country that has not had combat experience for decades – hosts a National Wargame E-Sports competition in which participants compete on how best to invade Taiwan. For the U.S., ensuring that wargames and simulations are engaging and fun will increase the likelihood that Soldiers will be interested in participating and learning from their repetitions for a specific proficiency.
- Currently, no AI system can replicate what is known as “the art of war.” Decision support products with human review and approval at each step maintains a human-in-the-loop for decision-making – building trust between humans and the AI tool.
- In the future, we may not need humans to command groups of autonomous systems. AI and Machine Learning (ML) may be advanced enough to lead an autonomous squadron without human intervention. This may shift the way data is created – from humans generating data and machines learning to machines generating data themselves and learning from it.
- If the U.S. Army wants to pursue decision advantage, it must embrace the integration of AI and ML across the force. Current DoD command and control systems and processes have been optimized for low intensity conflict and do not accurately address decision advantage over a near peer competitor. AI, ML, and software could help improve and accelerate the Army’s MDMP to machine speed.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next insightful episode of The Convergence on 14 August 2025, when we sit down with Jason Feser, Data Generation and Production Branch Chief at the Army Geospatial Center, to discuss the importance of Geospatial Analysis, how emerging technologies are being integrated into this field, and how our adversaries are incorporating this capability into how they fight.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post related content addressing the transformative power of AI:
Winning the Future: The U.S. Military’s Need for Technological Dominance and Defined Strategic Vision, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano and Elise Annett
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
Beyond Venture Capital: How the Government is Investing in Innovation, and associated podcast, with Murali Kannan and Coley Lewis
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper
Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer
Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)
Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry
Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo
Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite
Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC
Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas
“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work
Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis
Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps
Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird
Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano
Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast
113. Beyond Venture Capital: How the Government is Investing in Innovation
[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory understand the transformative potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have on the character of warfare — for a …
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[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory understand the transformative potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have on the character of warfare — for a comprehensive list of previously published blog posts and podcasts exploring the potential application of these technologies across the Operational Environment, scroll to the bottom of this post and explore the content associated with each of the associated links.
Today’s The Convergence podcast features two senior leaders from In-Q-Tel (IQT) discussing how their not-for-profit company is accelerating the introduction of groundbreaking technologies to facilitate innovation within the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Intelligence Community (IC), enhancing the national security and prosperity of the United States and its Allies — Enjoy!]
Murali Kannan leads Enterprise Technologies at In-Q-Tel (IQT) as Vice President and Practice Lead, where he directs investment strategy for enterprise data infrastructure, generative AI applications, and AI-enabled vertical solutions. Working closely with venture partners and government stakeholders, he identifies and invests in innovative startups addressing critical national security challenges for the U.S. and allied intelligence and national security communities.Prior to joining IQT, Murali built his expertise at Accenture, Mythics, and GDIT, where he spearheaded teams delivering transformative data analytics initiatives across commercial and government sectors. His educational background combines business acumen with technical expertise, including an MBA from MIT Sloan, a Master’s from Northeastern, specialized certifications from Georgetown and Columbia, and leadership training from Harvard Business School.
Coley Lewis’ career at IQT spans over 10 years and he has served in various capacities over his tenure. He currently serves as Vice President of Growth Partnerships, where he leads a team responsible for the identification, development, and execution of new partnerships within the national security community. Coley sets the growth strategy for IQT and works across IQT teams to successfully onboard new partners and maximize impact to mission.
Prior to joining IQT, Coley was the Senior Policy & Management Analyst for the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri (USDC-MOED), where he led data analytics for the Clerk’s Office, particularly the collection, analysis, and reporting of judicial business. Lewis holds a bachelor’s degree in history from Truman State University and a master’s degree in public administration from Saint Louis University.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Messrs. Kannan and Lewis to discuss IQT’s mission and history, explore how it is helping the Government foster innovation, and obtain their insights regarding the boom of LLMs permeating the Federal Government. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.
- In-Q-Tel fills a critical gap by investing in start-up companies that develop cutting-edge AI technology tailored for public-sector use cases. Public-private partnerships are critical to the DoD’s ability to fully utilize emerging technologies.
- AI is improving at an incredible rate. The time between research and implementation of new AI products and techniques is now measured in the space of months as opposed to years. This increasing tempo of innovation poses a challenge for the DoD’s ability to adapt and keep pace with new technology. Progress in AI is a compounding phenomenon, and the farther the DoD falls behind, the harder it will be to catch up.
- The focus of AI-development remains squarely on assisting, not replacing, human analysis. The key challenge is to identify areas where humans must be positioned as ‘in-the-loop’ decision-makers in the context of a fast-paced and machine-augmented analytical production process.
- Integrating AI into the DoD and IC represents a unique challenge, because these institutions handle sensitive and often classified data. This requirement requires specially tailored AI models that are as secure as current accredited networks. By presenting these kinds of problem sets to private companies, entities such as In-Q-Tel can deliver tailored solutions that will facilitate faster AI-integration throughout the military and intelligence spheres.
- AI presents a disruptive challenge in multiple areas, including exacerbating the threat of UAV warfare by fostering innovations such as drone swarms and facilitating a ‘democratization’ of technological knowledge that lowers the bar for lone wolves and weaker adversaries to engage in activities such as cyberattacks. Working in close collaboration with private partners, the DoD and IC can continue to meet and counter these emerging challenges.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for future insightful episodes of The Convergence.
If you enjoyed this post, review the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, How China Fights in Large-Scale Combat Operations, BiteSize China weekly topics, and the People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide.
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our North Korea Landing Zone, including Resources for Studying North Korea, Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in North Korea, and Instruments of Russian Military Influence in North Korea.
Our Irregular Threats Landing Zone, including TC 7-100.3, Irregular Opposing Forces, and ATP 3-37.2, Antiterrorism (requires a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the quarterly OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then read the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content addressing the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper
Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer
Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry
Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo
Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite
Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas
“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work
Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis
Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps
Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird
Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano
Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast
The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda
AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas
The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi
An Appropriate Level of Trust…
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
112. Battle Tested: Revolutionizing Wargaming with AI featuring Dr. Billy Barry
Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry, Professor of Emerging Technology at the U.S. Army War College, to discuss his latest innovation — an Artificial …
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Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry, Professor of Emerging Technology at the U.S. Army War College, to discuss his latest innovation — an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled digital war game. We tested this capability with two of the TRADOC G-2’s most experienced wargamers to get their thoughts on how it performed and its potential to democratize access to wargaming and potentially revolutionize Army training and strategic planning — Read on!]
Dr. Billy Barry is a Professor of Emerging Technology and Principal Strategist of the Artificial Intelligence/Intelligence Augmentation (AI/IA) Program for the Center for Strategic Leadership at the United States Army War College. Before working at the Army War College, Dr. Barry was a visiting professor of Philosophy and Just War Theory at the United States Military Academy at West Point. A pioneer in Human-AI/Intelligent Augmentation (IA) teams, he is the first to introduce AI-powered IA androids, robots, digital virtual beings, and strategic advisors as teaching and learning partners in civilian university and Professional Military Education classrooms. A sought-after TEDx and international keynote speaker, Dr. Barry’s influence extends to Fortune 500 companies and global leadership symposiums and conferences. His current research interest centers on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, driving the conversation on ethical technology interactions. His contributions to academia and industry establish him as a leading authority on the future of human relationships with emerging technology.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Dr. Billy Barry visited TRADOC to demonstrate his custom-made digital war game using his new Deterministic Constraint Processing (DCP) idea. Seasoned TRADOC G-2 wargamers Kate Kilgore and Dorsel “Flip” Boyer II tested several scenarios of Dr. Barry’s wargame and provide their insightful feedback regarding how this tool could be used by the Army. The following bullet points highlight the key insights from this conversation.
- Barry created a custom-made digital war game using DCP on top of the ChatGPT framework. Using DCP as a methodological framework to transform probabilistic Generative AI(Gen AI) systems into deterministic, rule-bound models, Dr. Barry’s Hybrid Deterministic Generative AI (HDGAI) system rigorously enforces semantic validity, epistemic integrity, and ethical logic through structured token selection processes, preventing semantic drift and computational inaccuracies typical in traditional Gen AI. HDGAI is designed to be auditable, transparent, and free from “hallucinations” or unpredictable outputs, making it a more reliable tool for exploring the viability of courses of action and strategic decision-making.
- Digital wargame scenarios using the HDGAI system — e.g., FLASHPOINT 2042: Taiwan Strait and ASCENDANCY 2050: The AI Uprising— significantly reduce the cost and logistical barriers associated with traditional war gaming — anyone with a computer or mobile device can access and play through these games. This accessibility democratizes wargaming and allows for wider participation, including the tool’s potential use in education and training.
- When tested by experienced wargamers, the HDGAI system’s intuitive design fostered a faster learning curve and enhanced player The ability to directly ask the system a clarifying question during gameplay – or modify the rules and structure – and receive clear explanations of outcomes enhanced players’ understanding and strategic thinking.
- The HDGAI system’s transparency allowed for the identification of subtle differences and novel insights into strategic thinking. Analyzing gameplay revealed discrepancies between historical perspectives and strategic goals, highlighting nuances often missed in traditional war games.
- While designed for wargaming, the HDGAI system’s principles of transparency, auditability, and reliability hold promise for other fields beyond a military context, such as intelligence analysis, threat assessment, legal fields, and education.
- Integrating an HDGAI approach to wargaming, with its simplicity, accuracy, and trainability, could help revolutionize Army training and strategic planning. Democratizing access to sophisticated wargaming with a solid database of historical data for everyone — not just expert wargamers who have mastered arcane rules — could improve Soldiers’ military decision-making skills, provide increased opportunities for critical thinking and collaboration, accelerate learning across all ranks, and ultimately result in more agile, better informed decision making in a rapidly evolving and increasingly complex Operational Environment.
- Barry is currently coordinating with both the U.S. Army TRADOC and Army Futures Command (AFC)to bring the power of his HDGAI system to these commands’ respective mission sets.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 10 April 2025.
If you enjoyed this post, review the TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access) — documenting what we’re learning about the evolving OE. Contains our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content exploring wargaming…
Report from Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, 06-07 November 2024
Seven Reflections of a “Red Commander” — Lessons Learned Playing the Adversary in DoD Wargames, by Ian Sullivan
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)
Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with COL Arnel David
Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates
Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae
Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with Andrew Olson
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
… and the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper
Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer
Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges and Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race and associated podcast, with Ben Van Roo
Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite
Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by <
111. Tactical Tech: How Smartphones are Countering Jamming in Ukraine with Dr. Sean Gorman
“The hope is that we can begin to profile what the capabilities of the jammer are that we’re seeing out in the field with enough measurements from enough devices” [Editor’s Note: In last week’s post, Sherman L …
Notas do episódio
“The hope is that we can begin to profile what the capabilities of the jammer are that we’re seeing out in the field with enough measurements from enough devices”
[Editor’s Note: In last week’s post, Sherman L. Barto posited a fictional intelligence (FICINT) scenario detailing China’s swift victory over Taiwan and the United States — achieved in part by the People’s Liberation Army’s use of
“… jam-resistant swarms utiliz[ing] permissioned blockchain encryption and … onboard AI adjust[ing] Software Defined Radio (SDR) receivers in real time to ignore interference that does not transmit with proper encryption and authentication. The loss of GNSS satellite navigation was assumed by PLA military planners and is replaced with a ship-based Long Range Navigation (LORAN) system providing the location of the three PLAN aircraft carriers to UAVs which is then paired with UAV computer vision trained on detailed maps of Taiwan to recognize where they are. Each UAV transmits a location tag every second to each adjacent node in the swarm, enabling precision location within 20 meters. The one pulse per second geolocation tags perform double duty as a network timing protocol, ensuring all PLA networks remain in synch despite the loss of GNSS timing.”
A U.S. Army maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) — precision strikes and the convergence of massed fires depend on accurate and resilient PNT data. However, as we’ve seen in Russia’s on-going war in Ukraine, access to this PNT data is increasingly being disrupted or spoofed by Electronic Warfare (EW) jammers.
Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes Dr. Sean Gorman, CEO and co-founder of Zephr.xyz, to discuss how his company is “crowdsourcing [GPS] measurements across a bunch of phones to get a better version of reality by looking at more satellites and getting more measurements.” Zephr is also harnessing this capability as a counter-EW jamming capability, turning everyone with a cellphone into a sensor to detect, identify, catalog, and locate these emitters. These capabilities, conceptually proven in Ukraine, may soon be tested in Taiwan against our most capable adversary — the People’s Liberation Army — Enjoy!]
Sean Gorman is the CEO and co-founder of Zephr.xyz, a developer of next-gen networked positioning technologies. Gorman has a more than 20-year background as a researcher, entrepreneur, academic, and subject matter expert in the field of geospatial data science and its national security implications. He is the former engineering manager for Snap’s Map team, former Chief Strategist for ESRI’s DC Development Center, founder of Pixel8earth, GeoIQ, and Timbr.io, and held other senior positions at Maxar and iXOL. Gorman served as a subject matter expert for the Department of Homeland Security’s Critical Infrastructure Task Force and Homeland Security Advisory Council, and he’s been awarded eight patents. He is also a former research professor at George Mason University.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Dr. Sean Gorman to discuss countering Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) jammers, how he came to work with the Ukrainian military, and commercial solutions in a Global Positioning System (GPS)-denied environment. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.
- Zephr builds Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technologies to improve and enhance Precision, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) accuracy and resiliency, while also providing countermeasure capabilities to help detect adversarial GNSS jamming/spoofing and locate their emitters. Their concept utilizes ensemble optimization — taking measurements from geographically dispersed devices, such as mobile phones, pinging their GPS measurements to satellites, then using a software server to calculate error corrections, which are then sent back to the phones and used to improve each device’s positioning accuracy — to locally determine positioning. This capability provides a democratized, inexpensive method to mitigate EW jamming of PNT.
- Citing their challenges in executing battlefield medical evacuation and logistics operations in a GPS-denied environment, a group of Ukrainian soldiers contacted Zephrdirectly for assistance in mitigating Russian jamming. Using a few Android devices to begin collecting data, additional phones provided further resiliency to positioning, the ability to map the jammed area, and the possibility of calculating the signals’ angles of arrival to determine the emitter’s location.
- In the future, the intent is to profile the capabilities of distinct jammer types based on collected data. Starting with data collected from Ukrainian jammers, the group calibrates and profiles signals to determine what the area of effect will look like for each emitter type, then consolidates the data into baseline calibration data. They hope to use this concept to compare this data to Russian jammers’ capabilities — enabling them to calculate the distance from the emitter and determine what kind of signal and disruption effects they’re getting.
- This capability uses off-the-shelf Android devices, but any GNSS-receiving device could be used. Android devices were easy to test because of their ubiquity and the ease with which they can be delivered around the world. This will make further testing in INDOPACOM with our Taiwanese partners possible — the idea is to turn every phone across the island into a sensor that can detect EW events.
- One of the keys to succeeding in an alt-PNT environment is a layered approach, as the integration of GNSS with commercial and military capabilities is critical. The Ukrainians struggled to gain independence from GPS. Zephr is currently working with Air Force Research Labs to provide this capability in theTactical Assault Kit (TAK) ecosystem.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 Mar 2025, when Army Mad Scientist sits down with returning guest Dr. Billy Barry to discuss his latest invention — an AI-enabled digital wargame! We tested this capability with two of the most experienced TRADOC G-2 wargamers and get their thoughts on how it performed.
If you enjoyed this post, check out TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations, laying out the 12 LSCO Conditions and 5 LSCO Implications of the Operational Environment, several of which expand on aspects of this podcast and blog post (e.g., Transparent Battlefield and Mass vs. Precision).
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content addressing PNT, EW, and the transparent battlefield:
LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow
Space: Challenges and Opportunities
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore
Operation Northeast Monsoon: The Reunification of Taiwan
China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare
Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target
Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age, by Chris O’Connor
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
110. Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race with Ben Van Roo
[Editor’s Note: Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back Ben Van Roo, recent author of our Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges blog post, to continue our exploration of …
Notas do episódio
[Editor’s Note: Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back Ben Van Roo, recent author of our Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges blog post, to continue our exploration of the transformative potential of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) — specifically its ability to democratize access across the U.S. Army to the vast reservoirs of Operational Environment information. In ingesting all of the OE Data Integration Network’s (ODIN) content — including the Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG), Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and accompanying Force Structures, the Army Techniques Publication (ATP) 7-100 series, and the Training Circular (TC) 7-100 series — Gen AI offers the potential to respond to conversational queries from individual Soldiers with the TRADOC G-2’s aggregated and authoritative OE knowledge. Operationally, Gen AI could also help accelerate the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) loop, the intelligence cycle, and even kill chains — powerful stuff, indeed…. Read on!]
Ben Van Roo is the Co-Founder and CEO of Yurts, a generative AI company partnering with the U.S. Department of Defense to advance mission-critical systems. He holds a PhD in Operations Research and has significant experience developing AI solutions for defense and national security applications.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Ben Van Roo to discuss Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) models, how they can be integrated into secure networks, and how TRADOC can use them to enhance Army training. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation.
- Classic AI models could provide rudimentary identification abilities, whereas Gen AI is a newer class of modelswith the capability to produce long form documents, generate and critique ideas, and create new images, video, and music.
- The technology enabling Gen AI is moving at a rapid pace. As soon as a new model is available, competitors and adversaries will use that newer model to upgrade their own, fostering a rapid learning and adaptation cycle. When thinking about the geopolitical implications and competition, there is a very tight timeline of advantagebetween open-source communities, proprietary model vendors, and the U.S. and other countries.
- Where Gen AI is useful today is plugging into pre-existing systems andaugmenting the processes that already exist. TRADOC’s mission of preparing the Warfighter in basic aspects of readiness, for different environments (e.g., Decisive Action Training Environment [DATE]), understanding our adversaries’ materiel capabilities in the Worldwide Equipment Guide, and much more is a perfect use case for employing the current state of Gen AI technology.
- While DoD is experimenting with Gen AI in aspects such as computer vision or Course of Action development, it is more suited to bridge the gap between the technology vendors and the Warfighters. The Government lacks what a large venture-backed company with a sole focus on writing Gen AI software can provide.
- For large organizations like the DoD, within the next 2 to 3 years, the fundamental focus will be on how to bring Gen AI into production— how it’s integrated, where it shouldn’t be, and how management, costs, and analytics will be conducted. In the commercial technology space, generative AI technology will be ubiquitous in 7-10 years.
- Using Gen AI, the Army has the potential opportunity to rapidly learn and understand the conditions of an evolving Operational Environmentby querying a digital subject matter expert – e.g., the TRADOC G-2’s OE Data Integration Network (ODIN) authoritative digital resource — to access and process TRADOC’s corpus of relevant Army Techniques Publications (ATPs) and training circulars (7-100 series), insights, and intelligence reports – via plain language queries.
- In an operational setting, Gen AI could help accelerate the pace of our OODA loop(Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act), shortening the cycles between Observation and taking Action – affecting everything from the intelligence cycle to the kill chain itself.
If you enjoyed this post, check out Ben Van Roo‘s previous Mad Scientist Laboratory post — Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges
Read TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content exploring the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper
Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer
Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite
Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC
Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox
Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas
“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work
Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis
Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC
Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird
Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano
Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast
The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated
The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda
AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas
The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi
An Appropriate Level of Trust…
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
109. Ghosts in the Battlespace: The UAP Threat with the James Gang
“We have craft that defy physics as we know it and are moving at speeds that are at least a hundred times faster than anything a human or robot… can produce on the planet.” [Editor’s Note: Today’s The …
Notas do episódio
“We have craft that defy physics as we know it and are moving at speeds that are at least a hundred times faster than anything a human or robot… can produce on the planet.”
[Editor’s Note: Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back our very own James Gang — proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — discussing a topic featured prominently in recent news stories and Congressional testimony: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs, now referred to by Drs. Giordano and Canton as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued a preliminary assessment to Congress several years ago. This assessment documented the findings of the Department of Defense’s UAP Task Force (UAPTF) and the ODNI National Intelligence Manager for Aviation — focusing on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and collected from systems considered to be reliable. These reports described incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021 — 144 reports originated from U.S. Government sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors. This preliminary assessment states:
“Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.”
UAPs represent a currently unknown aspect of the Operational Environment — all the more troubling, given the possibility that they could be foreign adversarial systems, operating freely within U.S. territorial spaces. Drs. Giordano and Canton dismiss the “woo” factor often associated with this topic, describe what we do know about UAPs, and lay out three recommendations to better understand these phenomena — Enjoy!]
Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC. Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC, think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.
Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books, and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps.
Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high-tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community, and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government.
Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart, The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, and been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) and the potential threat they pose. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- What were once called Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs, are now referred to as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena as they have been witnessed in multiple dimensions and domains, including the sea. They operate at speeds that seem to defy known physics, and their origins and attribution are currently unknown.
- There is an abundance of evidence to support the UAP claims, much of which comes from highly credentialed individuals in the Department of Defense and Government at-large. The corroboration of these accounts further cements the veracity that “something” is encroaching on sovereign spaces, but what that “something” is – and what its intent is – remains a mystery.
- There are various potential explanations for these phenomena – ranging from the plausible to the absurd. More sober possibilities include field tests by our own Government or friendly governments that haven’t been made public, adversaries or industry showcasing new technology, or experimentation by rogue actors.
- Regardless of the owner – whether that be Nation State, Government, industry, or rogue actor – the capabilities of these phenomena represent a critical and potential threat to our national security. The craft are able to maneuver in ways that significantly outpace our own technology and capabilities – as well as those of our allies and partners – and have been witnessed around critical national security assets.
- Preparing for these potential threats is difficult, due to the lack of information surrounding them. Giordano and Canton provide three recommendations to help address the nature of these phenomena:
1) The appointment of a subject matter expert on the dimensionality of these events. This individual should be able to work within a whole-of-government approach that extends internationally.
2) Increased transparency of any and all information (excluding classified information) that are relevant to public health and safety.
3) The creation of a multi-disciplinary committee that sustains oversight on actionable information acquisition, analysis, and provision of a strengthened relationship between the “boots on the ground” investigators and whole-of-nation assets – to include being read on with national security clearances.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the following previous blog posts and podcasts from our Mad Scientist “James Gang”:
Threat #49: I Think There’s Trouble Brewin’ and associated podcast
One Brain Chip, Please! Neuro-AI with two of the Maddest Scientists and associated podcast
Review our TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
108. Soldier Dominance and Battlefield Primacy
Soldier Dominance and Battlefield Primacy “What we’ve got to think about is, how do we make our Soldiers more effective, how do we maintain that battlefield primacy for our commanders, for our Soldiers, and for …
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Soldier Dominance and Battlefield Primacy
“What we’ve got to think about is, how do we make our Soldiers more effective, how do we maintain that battlefield primacy for our commanders, for our Soldiers, and for our units.”
[Editor’s Note: At the conclusion of Ian Sullivan‘s insightful blog post from almost four years ago, we were provided with a sage and cautionary admonition:
“… I think it is important to ask ourselves which approach are we [the U.S. Army] following on our path to modernization? Are we are trying to revolutionize our approach to warfare, or are we simply trying to modernize a force based on yesterday’s ideas? Is our preferred way of war capable of standing up to our pacing threats’ transformations, or do we need to refine it? ... We must answer the question “Are we doing enough fast enough?” — but we also must inexorably link that answer to an even more fundamental question: “Are we building the right force, with the right people to prevail over adversaries who have thought long and hard about how to defeat us?”
In our latest episode of the Army Mad Scientist’s The Convergence podcast, we sat down with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw, Director, Maneuver Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate (MCDID), to learn how the Army Futures Command’s presence at the Maneuver Center of Excellence (MCoE), Fort Moore, Georgia, is accomplishing this challenge — helping transform the Army’s maneuver capabilities to ensure our war-winning future readiness — Read on!]
[If the podcast dashboard above is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]
COL Scott Shaw, U.S. Army, is a graduate from the University of Arkansas in August 1996 and was commissioned as an Infantry officer. Prior to his current assignment as the Director, MCDID, COL Shaw was Assistant Chief of Staff, G3, I Corps and Joint Base Lewis McChord. COL Shaw also commanded the U.S. Army Asymmetric Warfare Group, Ft Meade, Maryland, from July 2019 to the unit’s deactivation in May 2021.
COL Shaw has held two combat commands — as the Commander, Headquarters and Headquarters Company, 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division deploying to Kabul, Afghanistan, and as Commander, Company A, 2nd Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment deploying to Baghdad, Iraq. He has had three additional combat tours in Iraq, plus another in Afghanistan, and has served abroad in the Sinai in Egypt, in Kuwait, and in Korea. COL Shaw holds three Master’s degrees – Military History (With Honors) from Norwich University, Military Art and Science from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and Strategic Studies (Distinguished Graduate) from the Marine Corps War College.
COL Shaw has also been a frequent guest of The Convergence podcast and is a proclaimed Mad Scientist.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL Shaw to talk about the Maneuver CDID, how it supports Army innovation, and how you can contribute to its mission. The following bullet points highlight the key takeaways from our conversation:
- A capabilities development and integration directorate (CDID) is the Army Futures Command’s lead for an Army force modernization proponent. The Maneuver CDID (MCDID), specifically, determines and develops future force capabilities and future infantry, armor, and robotic requirements. This allows for a trained and ready maneuver force that will be fully integrated in Army Combined and Joint operations in order to maintain the battlefield primacy of our Soldiers and the formations in which they fight. The MCDID works to deliver the maneuver force of 2030 and design the maneuver force of 2040.
- A major focus for the MCDID is “transformation in contact” – evaluating and refining technologies for use in combat through troop rotations and deployments. This ensures that requirements are captured and doctrine is written so Soldiers can fight a transform-in-contact-organized, equipped, and led Brigade Combat Team (BCT) across the DOTMLPF-P capabilities spectrum. Other initiatives include improved strategic and tactical mobility, integrating robotics, and simplifying command and control for all BCTs.
- As concepts and technology mature within the next 10 years, the MCDID will shift its focus to other initiatives, such asformation based layered protection, treating the squad as a system vice just Soldier load, and several signature modernization efforts. In addition to these efforts, an important initiative is captured under the situational awareness strategy which includes new night vision capabilities for the close combat force and the close combat support force.
- Beyond 10 years, the MCDID is striving to “never again trade blood for first contact.” Integrating robotics further into formations for robotic-enabled maneuver is how Soldiers will be relieved of dull, dirty, and dangerous tasks so they can focus on what humans do best – making ethics-based decisions.
- All Soldiers, Commanders, and Leaders have the opportunity to be a part of the innovation and modernization process! The MCDID is actively soliciting ideas, suggestions, and comments from the field. Many divisions and installations have innovation efforts with direct and regular connection to the MCDID. This is a Mad Scientist call to action!
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 16 January 2025, when Army Mad Scientist’s own “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — returns to discuss Unidentified Anomalous (vice Aerial) Phenomena, or UAPs, and their associated National Security implications!
If you enjoyed today’s podcast and blog post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s new OE Assessment — The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, and 4QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:
“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel by Ian Sullivan
China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling
The Future of Ground Warfare and associated podcast, with Proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw
The Case for Restructuring the Department of Defense to Fight in the 21st Century, by LTC Christopher J. Heatherly
Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast
Strategic Latency Unleashed!, Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future, and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis
Tactical Innovation: The Missing Piece to Enable Army Futures Command, by LTC Jim Armstrong
Mission Engineering and Prototype Warfare: Operationalizing Technology Faster to Stay Ahead of the Threat by The Strategic Cohort at the U.S. Army Tank Automotive Research, Development, and Engineering Center (TARDEC).
Innovation Isn’t Enough: How Creativity Enables Disruptive Strategic Thinking, by Heather Venable
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)
107. Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch with Dr. Billy Barry, LTC Blair Wilcox, & TIM
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University …
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[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the links to the conference agenda and registration site may be found at the end of this post (below).
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back Dr. Billy Barry, who is joined by LTC Blair Wilcox from the Army War College (AWC) to discuss their recent case study using their “AI Study Buddy” — TIM — to pass an AWC class, explore how hybrid intelligence can augment human cognition, and address how AI could be used to amplify learning during Army wargames — Enjoy!]
Dr. Billy Barry is a Professor of Emerging Technology and Principal Strategist of the Artificial Intelligence/Intelligence Augmentation (AI/IA) Program for the Center for Strategic Leadership at the United States Army War College. Before working at the Army War College, Dr. Barry was a visiting professor of Philosophy and Just War Theory at the United States Military Academy at West Point. A pioneer in Human-AI/IA teams, he is the first to introduce AI-powered intelligent augmentation androids, robots, digital virtual beings, and strategic advisors as teaching and learning partners in civilian university and Professional Military Education classrooms. A sought-after TEDx and international keynote speaker, Dr. Barry’s influence extends to Fortune 500 companies and global leadership symposiums and conferences. His current research interest centers on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, driving the conversation on ethical technology interactions. His contributions to academia and industry establish him as a leading authority on the future of human relationships with emerging technology.
Blair Wilcox is a lieutenant colonel, U.S. Army Strategist (FA59), and Assistant Professor currently assigned as the Deputy Director in the Strategic Landpower and Futures Group in the Center for Strategic Leadership at the U.S. Army War College. Before his current assignment, he taught in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy from 2016-2020. His first functional assignment as a Strategist was at V Corps where he was the lead author for the Corps Subordinate Campaign Plan and Operational Approach. LTC Wilcox helped stand up the Corps, deployed with the Corps during crisis, and served as the Chief of Plans during his final year in the G5.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Barry and LTC Wilcox to discuss their fascinating use case of pairing with an artificial intelligence (AI) to pass an AWC course, how hybrid intelligence can amplify a Soldier’s cognitive abilities, and how AI is a wargaming game changer. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- Hybrid intelligence takes the concept of human/AI teaming to a whole new level, requiring both sides of the partnership to accomplish a task.One major benefit of hybrid intelligence is the ability for the machine to continuously learn through its interactions with humans, as opposed to static AI which has a pre-determined and finite base of knowledge.
- The application of hybrid intelligence will be extremely useful to the Army and Joint Force at the strategic level – corps through theater. Trustin machine augmentation to support decision making must become standard for Senior Leaders. The strategic application of hybrid intelligence into commanders’ decision making will help them achieve decision dominance faster.
- As a civilian with no military experience, Dr. Barry illustrated the power of hybrid intelligence by participating in and completing a seminar course at the U.S. Army War College as a student with AI support from his machine, TIM(Technically Impossible Maneuver). While both Dr. Barry and TIM had limitations throughout the course, Dr. Barry was a “super student” – interacting dynamically with his AI to achieve a higher level of cognition that would not have been achieved otherwise — with TIM‘s instantaneous access to course material and relevant historical data prior to the class as well as during class discussions.
- The Army War College classroom was a useful space to see how hybrid intelligence could work, as it mirrored the same type of environment with military senior leaders that would be found at any strategic-level command. If trust could be achieved in the classroom, it can likely be achieved inside a corps and theater-level command’s staff with the replicated processes.
- TIM’s role during wargames provided players the ability to consult with an AIthat knows and can recall the specific rules and mechanisms of the game universe, in real time, to optimize game play. TIM was beneficial for players to achieve quick analyses on the science of war, but also helped them achieve a greater appreciation for the art of war, as well [Editor’s Note: check out the associated LSCO implications of this in the “The Art vs. the Science of War” section on page 24 of the TRADOC G-2′s latest Operational Environment].
- In the next few years, Dr. Barry and LTC Wilcox envision building an AI-enabled strategic advisor that can graduate with a student partner as an augmented pair through the Army War College. The second phase is to send this concept to BSAP, Basic Strategic Arts Program, to be a functional AI-enabled strategic advisor for Functional Area 59 (FA59) Strategists. In 10 years, it will be ideally networked throughout various Army commands and staffs at the strategic level to quickly coordinate, collaborate, share, and advise Army Senior Leaders with authoritative, crafted, and curated knowledge. The way for the Army to achieve dominance and maintain cognitive advantage is by employing hybrid intelligence-enabled decision making that ensures U.S. adversary-overmatch.
Dr. Barry will address how hybrid intelligence tools like TIM can augment and amplify learning during wargames and Professional Military Education in the Next Gen Wargaming – New Technological Advances panel discussion on Day 2 of our Game On! Wargaming in the Operational Environment conference on November 7th in Washington, DC. — Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society cordially invite you to attend:
What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment
When: 6-7 November 2024
Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057
Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.
***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to [email protected]
In the meantime, check out Dr. Barry‘s The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast
… and the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2)
Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with COL Arnel David
Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates
Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae
Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with Andrew Olson
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
106. Whipping Wargaming Into NATO SHAPE with COL Arnel David
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University …
Notas do episódio
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the link to our registration site may be found at the end of this post (below).
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back COL Arnel P. David, a frequent contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory and returning podcast guest, to learn how NATO is injecting new technologies into wargaming to integrate and build staff proficiency across the Alliance’s 32 member nations’ militaries — Enjoy!]
[If the podcast dashboard above is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]
COL Arnel P. David is the Director of the Strategic Initiatives Group at NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE). He is a distinguished military graduate from Valley Forge Military College, completed a Master of Arts from the University of Oklahoma, a Master of Military Art and Science in the Local Dynamics of War Scholars Program at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and is a distinguished graduate of the Joint Advanced Warfighting School (JAWS) where he was a National Defense University Scholar and completed a Master of Science in Joint Campaign Planning and Strategy. COL David is a PhD candidate with King’s College London. He is the cofounder of Fight Club International, a global gaming network seeking to improve the efficacy of warfighting across the spectrum of conflict and competition — find information on Fight Club‘s current online Tactical Decision Game at the end of this post.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL David to discuss his views on wargaming in the U.S. Army and NATO, how technology is shaping its evolution, and how to push it to the forefront of Professional Military Education (PME). The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- NATO SHAPE recently stood up a wargaming department. They are creating and prototyping games at the strategic level that can incorporate many of the 32 member countries as well as counter-terrorism games.This nascent team is just beginning to build out its wargaming capability and is looking for experts to contribute to its mission.
- The aforementioned wargaming department is crowdsourcing input to help better understand “what Multi-Domain Operations(MDO) looks like.” They plan to take the information they collect and use it to construct games that will help explore the crowdsourcing prompt. Additionally, the best ideas will be evaluated and briefed out to Senior U.S. Army and NATO leaders.
- A mixed-method approach to wargaming is best. The wargame itself is not the end state; rather, the post-game analysis and the lessons learned from multiple iterations is what is important. For wargames that focus on the Balkans, NATO incorporated large-language models (LLMs) to create psychometric profiles on different ethnic groups in the region to help better understand customs, traditions, and norms to be played in a contested-narratives environment within the game.This not only allowed them to test out military operations, but also to test out specific narratives to see what is effective and what is not in countering an adversary’s information operations.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not supplanting human expertise in wargaming, but rather allowing much of the preparation to be completed more quickly. Orders of battle, rules, and doctrine can be loaded into the system and incorporated instantly, allowing more iterations of games to run and reducing the time spent during games discussing semantics and administration.
- There are still significant challenges in incorporating advanced technology onto secure systems.However, there is urgency to seek solutions as potential adversaries are already working toward the same end. Ceding this advantage would allow them to gain more out of wargaming and potentially adapt their fighting more quickly and more effectively.
- Wargaming is an effective way to improve critical thinking and decision-making skills. A combination of conventional, table-top games with physical pieces and cards and digital counterparts might be the best solution to approaching the margins of learning from wargaming. This will require a conscious effort from Senior Leaders to push for wargaming as a part of PME at all levels, as well as a change in mindset from current wargamers to accept technological innovation.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 25 October 2024, when we will feature returning guest, Dr. Billy Barry, and LTC Blair Wilcox from the Army War College (AWC) discussing their recent case study using their “AI Study Buddy” T.I.M., to pass an AWC class, how hybrid intelligence (HI) can augment human cognition, and how AI could be used to amplify Army wargames.
Fight Club’s new Online Tactical Decision Game (TDG), ‘Operation Parry’, recently went live on the Fight Club website. The game — played via the submission of text-based orders — features a mixed Estonian-United Kingdom Task Force launching a spoiling attack on a Donovian Tactical Assembly Area.
Orders submitted by each player will be executed in-game against a single ‘AI Plan,’ and a winner declared based on final score and tactical outcome.
The scenario has also been created to provide an example of an ad-hoc multinational formation (Estonian Mechanized Infantry with British Recon and Maneuver Support), operating under challenging conditions.
Simulated tactical problems such as this can provide a good opportunity to bring together allied forces within a virtual environment to familiarize tactics, doctrine, communications protocols, terminology, and other critical interoperability factors.
Fight Club is exploring a range of interoperability-based simulation projects; aiming to develop low-cost resources that can be used ahead of combined arms exercises in the field. It seeks to enable units to ‘pre-familiarize’ with foreign partner formations in detail, enabling smoother, more efficient maneuvers out in the real world.
The Operation Parry TDG will be demonstrated at Game Night scheduled on the Day 1 of Army Mad Scientist’s Game On! Wargaming in the Operational Environment conference on November 6th in Washington, DC (more below).
We hope today’s podcast and post piqued your interest regarding how wargaming can inform us about the Operational Environment and support Professional Military Education. Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society invite you to learn more about this topic at our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference.
What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment
When: 6-7 November 2024
Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057
Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.
***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to [email protected]
In the meantime, check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:
Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates
Taking the Golf Out of Gaming and associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Part 1)
Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with Andrew Olson
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
105. Taking the Golf Out of Gaming with Sebastian Bae
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University …
Notas do episódio
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the link to our registration site may be found at the end of this post (below).
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist interviewed Sebastian Bae, Senior Wargame Designer at CNA, adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University teaching graduate wargame design, and designer of the phenomenally popular Littoral Commander: Indo-Pacific — the single most cited game in the host of responses we received from our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing exercise last spring. In this fascinating conversation, Mr. Bae explores how wargaming can help better prepare our Soldiers and Leaders for a complex Operational Environment — Read on!]
Sebastian Bae is a Research Scientist and Senior Game Designer at CNA’s Gaming & Integration program — working in wargaming, emerging technologies, the future of warfare, and strategy and doctrine for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. He is the game designer for Littoral Commander: Indo-Pacific, a commercially available, professional military educational wargame exploring peer conflict and future technologies. Sebastian also serves as an adjunct assistant professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, where he teaches a graduate course on designing educational wargames. He has taught similar courses at the U.S. Naval Academy and the U.S. Marine Corps Command & Staff College. He is also the faculty advisor to the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, the Co-Chair of the Military Operations Research Society Wargaming Community of Practice, and a former Non-Resident Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity. Previously, he served six years in the Marine Corps infantry, leaving as a Sergeant. He deployed to Iraq in 2009.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Sebastian Bae to discuss his views on wargaming in the military, his thoughts on the various technology evolutions, and how the Department of Defense can better harness this unique tool. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- “Wargaming is sort of like golf –it is often the refuge of the “wealthy” — the senior leaders — and it does not get lots of play at different echelons typically.” Wargaming capabilities are rarely pushed down to the lowest echelons and tactical level. They tend to be concentrated at the Combatant Command-level, creating a unique challenge as the games often only serve a specific viewpoint on any given problem.
- Integrating different types of wargames throughout different echelons allows Soldiers to practice decision making at all levels of their careers.This is critical because a Soldier’s decision space and perspective changes as they move from echelon to echelon. Ideally, the games should evolve as the Soldier moves up through their career path to represent the changes in their decision-making requirements.
- Establishing a wargaming ecosystem consisting of both microgames and larger wargames creates an opportunity to explore topics outside of the typical kinetic, combat-centric wargames, such as Medical Services and CASEVAC, water distribution, and maintenance, that may be better suited for smaller games that can be played in 20-minutes. Additionally, a wargaming ecosystem with microgames provides additional opportunities to expose younger Soldiers to wargaming. Increasing wargaming literacy across the force enhances the quality of larger, kinetic games as the player pool improves.
- Certain aspects of wargaming can benefit from advanced technology now available. However, integrating new technology into government or military wargaming comes with inherent limitations. Innovation with technology is difficult due to security risks, network incompatibility, and trademark, copywrite, and intellectual property constraints.
- Collaboration between the professional and commercial sectors of gaming is possible with effective processes and exploration, specifically in publishing and education.The military can utilize commercial game publishers to produce games on a larger scale that can be proliferated throughout the force at different echelons.
- Sebastian Bae’s educational wargame, Littoral Commander – Indo Pacific, began as a project during the COVID pandemic to inform the broader force about future force design and multi-domain concepts at scale. Over time,the game has become a critical part of education across the Joint force and partner nations.Originally designed for the Marine Corps, the Air Force uses Littoral Commander to teach their six-step dynamic targeting process — “find,” “fix,” “track,” “target,” “engage,” and “assess” or F2T2EA — while a German Officer training at the Marine Corp’s Expeditionary Warfare School has adapted the game to create a German version now utilized throughout the German Army.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 17 October 2024, when we explore how NATO is employing wargaming to integrate and build staff proficiency across the Alliance’s 32-member nations’ militaries.
We hope this post has piqued your interest regarding how wargaming can inform us about the Operational Environment and support Professional Military Education. Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society want to invite you to learn more about this topic at our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference.
What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment
When: 6-7 November 2024
Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057
Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.
***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to [email protected]
In the meantime, check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:
“Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Part 1)
Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associated podcast with Andrew Olson
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
104. Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones with Andrew Olson
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist first introduced Andrew Olson to our community of action with his insightful submission to our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing effort entitled Civilian Harm Mitigation and …
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[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist first introduced Andrew Olson to our community of action with his insightful submission to our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing effort entitled Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO. In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Mr. Olson to learn more about CHMR — now a DoD priority with the implementation of DoDI 3000.17 on 21 December 2023 — and how incorporating it into the Army’s wargaming activities can help our Leaders understand how it “supports U.S. national security interests… furthering strategic objectives to achieve long-term strategic success, enhancing the effectiveness and legitimacy of military operations, and demonstrating moral leadership.” CHMR helps ensure we retain the moral high ground when executing military operations, are more precise with our application of lethal force, and are more effective at the operational level — all essential components of achieving victory — Enjoy!]
Andrew Olson is an Associate Research Analyst at CNA, specializing in wargaming. He has experience with a variety of educational and analytical approaches, with a particular interest in wargaming policy challenges, climate change wargames, and emerging technologies wargames. He has facilitated wargames for the National Academies, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, Pew Charitable Trusts, U.S. State Department, and the Joint Staff, among others. Prior to joining CNA, Mr. Olson worked for the Department of State examining technology cooperation challenges. He has managed several print publications, including the Science and Technology section of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, and served as lead researcher and lab manager for a biological research lab examining the genetic foundations of empathy. Mr. Olson holds a Master of Science in foreign service from Georgetown University and Bachelor of Arts degrees in biology and political science from Westmont College in Santa Barbara, California.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Andrew Olson to discuss CHMR, its evolution within wargames, and its impact on Army planning. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) is not a constraint – it is how we win. Effective CHMR is a part of how the U.S. can achieve its strategic and operational outcomes. Wargaming provides Leaders with the opportunity of exploring unfamiliar scenarios in a fail-safe environment. Future conflicts are likely to include the possibility of civilian harm – integrating CHMR into wargaming is essential in allowing our decision-makers the space to understand the full consequences of their decisions and actions.
- CHMR is not a single inject to tack on at the end of a wargame – it must be a consistent approach that is incorporated into the development of commanders’ guidance, mission planning, courses of action, and targeting plans. Diffusing CHMR throughout every step of a wargame forces every player to account for civilian harm in decision-making at all levels and steps of mission planning and execution. The importance does not fall on CHMR simply being injected into every step of a wargame, but in making informed decisions towards a strategic outcome, of which CHMR is a part.
- The wargaming community is currently grappling with a form of “systems thinking” – how to deal with cascading effects, how to think about interconnected digital and electrical environments, and how to understand the information environment. Unintended consequences resulting in civilian harm are possible due to the interconnectedness of many “systems.”
- Challenges presented in Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) — communications disruptions, volume and speed of targets, logistics, and distance — all play into CHMR, making it a critical aspect of operations. Although CHMR must be a priority regardless of adversary actions or thinking, adversaries in LSCO are likely to exploit instances of civilian harm and the associated disinformation opportunities that arise.
- CHMR doesn’t prevent us from taking military actions — it means we consider the risks to civilians that exist and work to mitigate them where possible. That is a part of our theory of victory and additionally helps us become more effective on the operational level. “It is far better to hit the target that we wanted and the thing that is in fact a high value target, rather than a civilian fishing boat – we shouldn’t think about CHMR as a constraint, rather as a next level of precision.“
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, when we sit down with Sebastian Bae, Senior Game Designer at CNA’s Gaming Program and wargame design instructor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, to discuss how wargaming can help prepare our Leaders for a complex Operational Environment.
Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society want to invite you to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference.
What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment
When: 6-7 November 2024
Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057
Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.
***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to [email protected]
In the meantime, check out Andrew Olson‘s submission to our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing effort — Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO — as well as the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:
Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
103. On the Ground and In the Air in Ukraine with Wolfgang Hagarty
“I don’t think America, or the West in general, is prepared in any sort of way to fight a static war like we’re seeing over there in Ukraine.” [Editor’s Note: One of the twelve key conditions driving the …
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“I don’t think America, or the West in general, is prepared in any sort of way to fight a static war like we’re seeing over there in Ukraine.”
[Editor’s Note: One of the twelve key conditions driving the Operational Environment (OE) in the next ten years is its increased lethality. According to the TRADOC G-2‘s recently published The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:
“LSCO will be increasingly lethal due to the intersection of sensor ubiquity, battlefield automation, precision strike, and massed fires.”
We’ve seen an increase in the production, employment, and success of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) on the battlefield in recent years. These systems were integral components of the Azeri victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War – specifically the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop – and are proving vital in the on-going Russo-Ukrainian war. Indeed, during this latter conflict, the ever evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/Counter-UAS (C-UAS) fight has led to rapid adaptations on both sides as they seek to achieve battlefield advantage. Yet any advantage achieved is fleeting — as observed by Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, “The peak efficiency of a new weapon system is only about two weeks before countermeasures emerge.”
In our latest episode of Army Mad Scientist’s The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Wolfgang Hagarty to learn first-hand about the on-going war in Ukraine, its rapidly evolving UAS/C-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare — Enjoy!]
Wolfgang Hagarty — a United States Marine Corps veteran — joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in 2022 as an intelligence officer. He took part in the UAF’s Kharkiv offensive as well as the Kherson offensive. He became a team leader and focused primarily on the UAS/C-UAS fight as well as Electronic Warfare (EW) and counter-EW.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Hagarty to talk about his experiences fighting in Ukraine, his opinions on the rise of UAS, and his thoughts on the evolution of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- First-Person View (FPV) drones have become a very cost-effective way for Ukraine to achieve precision strikes. Their ubiquity on the battlefield initially arose from Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells. The UAF soon realized dismounted infantry teams could find and finish Russian targets with precision strikes using fewer drones than conventional artillery firing masses of ordnance.
- To counter Russian reconnaissance UAS, like the larger Orlan-10and -30, the Ukrainians would identify the systems through direction finding means and pass that information on to mobile anti-aircraft units to shoot them down. Russian FPV UAS presented the UAF with a much more difficult C-UAS conundrum. These smaller UAS have shorter ranges and flight times, so an individual UAF soldier or unit would have to already be in the vicinity of where the Russian FPV UAS were operating to effectively target and neutralize them using a man-portable EW C-UAS jamming gun.
- The vast majority of the materiel Mr. Hagarty and his teams relied on employed open-source software and hardware. Occasionally, they would receive commercial products to test and employ, but the effectiveness of those systems was too inconsistent to be useful. For example, the only effective EW C-UAS jamming gun he employed was manufactured in Ukraine. Mr. Hagarty found that all EW C-UAS jamming guns manufactured in the West (that he used) were ineffective. Further, he recounted that no western-manufactured drones (that he used) lasted more than one mission — instead, his units relied on either Mavic drones produced by China’s DJI or custom-built (i.e., domestically-produced Ukrainian) systems.
- The UAF have established a live-streaming system so that all relevant units can see live feeds from systems currently in the air. This common operating picture reduces overlap, allows operators to identify targets, and enables shooters to correct missed shots in real time without being told or waiting for observers to relay new targeting information. Now everyone in the UAF — not just special forces units — have “eyes in the sky.”
- The future fight will allow for maneuver warfare or static warfare. Maneuver warfare requires air superiority or artillery superiority. In Ukraine, it’s largely been a static war of attrition. With adversaries able to produce effects in all domains, the U.S. may not have air superiority in the next fight. Mr. Hagarty also doesn’t believe the U.S. is prepared for a static fight, nor does he think the U.S. and its citizens are prepared for the combat losses associated with a protracted static fight.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 19 September 2024, when we sit down with Andrew Olson to discuss how wargaming can provide our Leaders with the requisite situational understanding of how they can successfully execute combat operations, achieve mission objectives, and win decisively on the battlefield, while simultaneously complying with our Nation’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) policy.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s new OE Assessment — The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)
Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back! by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown
Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast
The PLA and UAVs – Automating the Battlefield and Enhancing Training
A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations
China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare
The PLA: Close Combat in the Information Age and the “Blade of Victory”
“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan.
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
Turkey and the TB-2: A Rising Drone Superpower and its associated podcast, with Karen Kaya
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
102. War, Inc: The Private Sector in Contemporary Conflict with LTC Kristine Hinds
[Editor’s Note: The Mad Scientist Laboratory featured LTC Kristine M. Hinds‘ assessment of private sector involvement in future conflicts in “Sixth Domain” – Private Sector Involvement in Future Conflicts last …
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[Editor’s Note: The Mad Scientist Laboratory featured LTC Kristine M. Hinds‘ assessment of private sector involvement in future conflicts in “Sixth Domain” – Private Sector Involvement in Future Conflicts last June. While some Army purists have taken exception to the Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security‘s use of the term “Sixth Domain” to describe the private sector’s sphere of activities supporting warfighting, no one disputes the vital role that the private sector has played in providing corroborative intelligence via space imagery, effective cyber security, and resilient Command and Control networks — heretofore the domain of public sector defense services and intelligence communities — in Ukraine’s on-going fight against Russian imperialism.
In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Hinds to address Fifth Generation Warfare, the Sixth Domain, and how we may need to adapt to defend ourselves and the Nation in the evolving Operational Environment.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Kristine Hinds — a 90A Logistics Corps officer in the U.S. Army Reserve and Future Seminar student at the Army War College — to discuss her work on Team Sullivan’s Travels, what her research revealed, and the implications of a Sixth Domain and Fifth Generation Warfare. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- In focusing on the central theme of “how innovations from contemporary conflicts impact the future dynamics of warfare,” LTC Hinds explored the impacts of non-military or non-federally governed entities in crisis and conflict, specifically those of the private sector.
- Per The Atlantic Council, the sixth domain refers to the private sector’s role in warfare. In its on-going fight with Russia, Ukraine continues to receive private sector support in cyber, communications, and data migration services. The “sixth domain” has emerged as a critical consideration for operational planning and warfighting, not only for the assets and capabilities it can deliver, but also for its associated risk in blurring the distinction between noncombatants and combatants.
- Private sector support is not guaranteed – it can be pulled or even turned into a threat.There is risk in relying too heavily on support that can be easily turned off. The private sector’s ability to deny services or withhold information creates the possibility of them adversely impacting strategic, operational, and tactical operations, such as targeting.
- Fifth generation warfare loosely describes contemporary conflicts in which tactics like social media influence operations and cyberattacks play a more prominent role in warfare – essentially, the role of the citizen. Early coordination, collaboration, and planning for integrating the private sector and citizens into warfare is necessary prior to the onset of any conflict.
- Everyone is a player, and everything is a target.A major consideration of integrating the private sector and citizens into warfare is the willingness for these traditional noncombatants to potentially become involved kinetically or non-kinetically in a conflict that seemingly no longer has any rules.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 05 September 2024, when we sit down with “Wolfgang Hagarty” (a nom-de-guerre) to discuss the on-going war in Ukraine, the rapidly evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/ Counter-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare.
If you enjoyed today’s post and podcast, check out LTC Kristine Hinds‘ “Sixth Domain” – Private Sector Involvement in Future Conflicts, as well as Team Sullivan’s Travels‘ Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target and their comprehensive Final Report.
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming content:
Democratized Intelligence and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
The OSINT Odyssey: Unmasking Digital Clues and associated podcast, with Shawn Nilius
Space: Challenges and Opportunities
War Laid Bare and What the Joint Force can learn from K-Pop “Stans”, by Matthew Ader
LET’S TWEET, GRANDMA – Weaponizing the Social to Create Information Security, by CDR Sean M. Sullivan
The Future of War is Cyber! by CPT Casey Igo and CPT Christian Turley
101. Precursor to Victory: Understanding the Operational Environment with Mr. Ian Sullivan
[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to publish its 500th post! Since its inception on 09 November 2017, the Mad Scientist Laboratory has continuously sought to explore the Operational Environment (OE) …
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[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to publish its 500th post! Since its inception on 09 November 2017, the Mad Scientist Laboratory has continuously sought to explore the Operational Environment (OE) and the changing character of warfare on behalf of the U.S. Army. Given this enduring mission, it’s fitting that this milestone post features the highlights from our latest episode of The Convergence podcast. Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence (DCSINT) G-2, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), to discuss the TRADOC G-2’s newly published The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.
The OE underpins how the U.S. Army is organized, trained, equipped, and operates — it is foundational in ensuring the Army’s mission success — fighting and winning our Nation’s wars. This latest OE assessment focuses on how our adversaries are learning and adapting how they fight from recent and on-going conflicts around the globe (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Gaza, and the Gulf of Aden). It describes the twelve conditions that contribute to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) and five resulting implications for the U.S. Army.
This new OE assessment is central to how the U.S. Army integrates the threat within our Leadership Development Training and Education system, our doctrine, and our modernization efforts across the DOTMLPF-P spectrum of capabilities. In preparing for LSCO against our pacing and acute threats (China and Russia, respectively), it represents the “gold standard” for which the Army must ready itself as a “precursor to victory.” Any and everyone associated with defending this great Nation should familiarize themselves with its contents — Read on!]
Mr. Ian Sullivan is the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, G-2, TRADOC. He holds a BA from Canisius University in Buffalo, New York, an MA from Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies in Washington, D.C., and was a Fulbright Fellow at the Universität Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany. A career civilian intelligence officer, Mr. Sullivan has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence; Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) at the National Counterterrorism Center; the Central Intelligence Agency; and TRADOC. He is a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and was first promoted to the senior civilian ranks in 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service. Mr. Sullivan is a frequent and valued contributor to both the Mad Scientist Laboratory and The Convergence podcast.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Sullivan to discuss the newly released The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations, the twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO, and the five implications for the U.S. Army and the larger Joint Force. The following bullet points highlight the key takeaways from our conversation:
- While the Army continues to study conflicts from around the globe illustrating aspects of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), TRADOC’s updated Operational Environment (OE) describes LSCO through the lens of our adversaries, highlighting what they are learning.This foundational document departs from previous OE assessments’ focus on the broad capabilities and environmental factors (e.g., technologies and demographics) to a threats-based focus that serves as the center point for integrating threat knowledge across the spectrum of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy (DOTMLPF-P) capabilities.
- This new OE describes twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO and five resulting implications. Several LSCO conditions highlight threat actors’ abilities to challenge the Army through anti-access/area denial, potential use of weapons of mass destruction, and threats to the U.S. homeland. Additional conditions speak to concepts highlighted in FM 3-0, Operations — multidomain threats on an increasingly transparent battlefield, the proliferation of uncrewed systems, the impact of information operations, increased lethality, and the potential for dense urban warfare.
- The new OE also assesses possible implications for the Army that may result in organizational, training, or equipment changes. Among these is the relationship between maneuver, fires, and protection as a defense from overhead observation and precision fires, the dichotomy that exists between the art and science of war, understanding annihilation versus attrition, and the paramount requirement for rapid adaptation. Additionally, the assessment recognizes the warfighting advantage of highly trained Soldiers and Leaders.
- Everyone will benefit from reading this assessment — from Soldiers across the Army to fellow Service members of the Joint Force and our Allies and Partners. No matter where you are within the DoD, the OE underpins everything that you do professionally on a daily basis. It is critical for the Army to understand how our adversaries are preparing for LSCO and the full weight of its associated conditions and implications.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 22 August 2024, when we sit down with “Wolfgang Hagarty” (a nom-de-guerre) to discuss the on-going war in Ukraine, the rapidly evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/Counter-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare.
If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:
Know Your Enemy: Army Doctrine Starts with the Threat and associated podcast, with General Gary M. Brito, Colonel Rich Creed (USA-Ret.), and Mr. Ian Sullivan
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore
Insights from the Israel-Hamas War and associated podcast, with LTC Kenneth Hardy
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics
Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target, by Team Sullivan’s Travels
Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050
China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan
WMD Threat: Now and in the Future
Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast
100. The Dictator's Dream: A Conversation with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)
[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post featured a timely “what if?” nightmare scenario by COL John Antal (USA-Ret.), set in a not-too-distant-future — imagining an Operational …
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[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post featured a timely “what if?” nightmare scenario by COL John Antal (USA-Ret.), set in a not-too-distant-future — imagining an Operational Environment where today’s National Defense Strategy threat members, colluding as a coalition of autocracies, launched simultaneous surprise strikes against United States’ Joint forces around the globe.
In today’s 100th episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back COL Antal to read his scenario for our listeners and discuss its associated implications for the U.S. Army — Enjoy!]
COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) is a Soldier, military historian, and leadership expert. He served 30 years in the U.S. Army as a combat arms officer, senior staff officer, and commander. He is the author of two recent books on modern warfare: Next War: Reimagining How We Fight (September 2023) and 7 Seconds to Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022).
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL Antal to review and discuss his troubling scenario and the associated implications for the U.S. Army. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- The Dictator’s Dreamis a fictional story written as a wakeup call for Army Leaders to focus on a worst-case scenario. “Useful fiction” presents possible scenarios intended to develop creativity and strengthen foresight — solving problems in the short term and creating solutions for the long-run. The U.S. could end up in a war for national survival — something most people cannot imagine. This scenario helps our Leaders to imagine and think about how to respond to such an existential threat.
- The increasing speed of battlefield adaptation requires the U.S. Army to innovate and develop courses of action very rapidly. We can use lessons from history, specifically recent history, to help inform our decisions on how to adapt our forces. Wargames and thought experiments are also essential, enabling our Leaders to engage in productive dialogues on creative, timely solutions.
- We are living in a precarious time – possibly more dangerous than at any other time in the 21st century. American deterrence has been dramatically affected by events in the past several years, providing our adversaries with opportunities to exploit. These threats are now colluding in ways we have not previously seen – becoming allies.
- Training rotations at our Combat Training Centers are capstone training events for our maneuver brigade combat teams. They must accurately depict the Operational Environment(OE), specifically regarding the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle/Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (UAV/C-UAS) fight and the dispersed battlefield. You do not rise to the level of your expectations; you fall to the level of your training.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 01 August 2024, as we continue to explore the Future Dynamics of Warfare project with Army War College student LTC Kristine Hinds — addressing 5th Generation Warfare, the 6th Domain, and how we might need to adapt to defend ourselves and our Nation from these evolutions to the OE.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the following previously published Army Mad Scientist content featuring COL Antal: The Dictator’s Dream, Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, and Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and associated podcast.
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).
Read the following Army Mad Scientist OE and threat content:
Realer than Real: Useful Fiction and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientists P.W. Singer and August Cole
Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
WMD Threat: Now and in the Future
The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
99. Blending: The Art of Hiding in Plain Sight with LtCol Erik Keim
[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory post featured an assessment by U.S. Army War College student LtCol Erik Keim (USMC) that “militaries will blend with civilian transmissions instead of …
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[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory post featured an assessment by U.S. Army War College student LtCol Erik Keim (USMC) that “militaries will blend with civilian transmissions instead of relying solely on the specific military electromagnetic spectrum by 2030 due to the availability of Software Defined Radios (SDRs) and the proven success of digital camouflage.”
In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with LtCol Keim to discuss the Future Dynamics of Warfare project he and his U.S. Army War College classmates collaborated on, his research on blending in the electromagnetic spectrum, and how the Army can adapt to the modern battlefield — Enjoy!]
LtCol Erik Keim is currently a resident student at the U.S. Army War College. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science from the University of Wyoming and a Master’s Degree in Information Technology Management from the Naval Postgraduate School. He is the recipient of the 2015 Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper Award from the Naval Postgraduate School. LtCol Keim is a Marine Corps Communications Officer with over 20 years of service and deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and throughout the Western Pacific.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LtCol Keim to talk about his work on the Team Sullivan’s Travels project at the U.S. Army War College, what his research showed for the U.S. Army, and how blending might be a viable course of action on a cluttered battlefield. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- Current military tactics use reserved frequencies and high-powered transmitters for communications. These actions stand out in the electromagnetic spectrum and make it easy for the enemy to triangulate and pinpoint the origin of the emissions for targeting and destruction.
- The on-going war in Ukrainehas shown that both sides are able to very quickly and easily identify and locate the source of communications transmissions and use a variety of kinetic attacks on those locations. Blending would be a viable alternative to using traditional military frequencies, with military communications “hiding within the noise” of commercial and civilian transmissions – e.g., WiFi, 4G and 5G, and Bluetooth.
- Blending in with the background electromagnetic spectrum “noise” makes it much harder for an adversary to detect and discern specific military communications from normal environmental transmissions. This may come with added risk — Russia, for instance, transitioned to using cell phone communications but used unencrypted signals that Ukraine was able to intercept and act on.
- The contemporary battlefield shows that if you are operating anywhere in the world, you can be seen, and if you can be seen you can be hit.Military operations require diligence when emitting and transmitting. Following the principles of shoot, move, communicate, and move again will help ensure survivability, but a mix of old and new techniques might be needed. Military software applications on cell phones that use cellular frequencies but protect transmissions may be key. High-fidelity decoys that can trick ISR systems might give forces just enough time to move before the enemy can discern what is real from battlefield deception.
- New or modified Military Occupational Specialties may be necessary as the role of Frequency Manager evolves. Instead of ensuring that forces have the requisite frequencies reserved for operations and working with host-nations to deconflict, they will instead need to become more proactively tactical — sensing the EM spectrum to understand what “normal” looks like, identifying anomalies that may indicate enemy operations, and knowing what ambient conditions are so that they can seamlessly blend in to hide their signals.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 20 June 2024, as we continue to explore the Future Dynamics of Warfare project with Army War College student LTC Kristine Hinds — addressing 5th Generation Warfare, the 6th Domain, and how we might need to adapt to defend ourselves and our Nation from these evolutions to the Operational Environment.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out LtCol Erik Keim‘s Hiding in Plain Sight: Blending in the Electromagnetic Spectrum, as well as Team Sullivan’s Travels‘ Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target and their associated Final Report.
Review our series of blog posts exploring what we’re learning about the Operational Environment:
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
WMD Threat: Now and in the Future
The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment (OE) and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Information Paper (TIP).
Read the following related posts:
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Pattern Detected! Masking by Injecting Randomness, by Chris Butler
Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization
War Laid Bare and Decision in the 21st Century, by Matthew Ader
Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age, by Chris O’Connor
Battlefield sensing and AI discussions in The Future of Ground Warfare and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw
Battlefield transparency and masking discussions in Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, as well as Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and associated podcast, both with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
98. The OSINT Odyssey: Unmasking Digital Clues with Mr. Shawn Nilius
[Editor’s Note: The TRADOC G-2 appreciates the value of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in informing us about emergent trends across the Operational Environment (OE). For almost two years, analysts within the …
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[Editor’s Note: The TRADOC G-2 appreciates the value of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in informing us about emergent trends across the Operational Environment (OE). For almost two years, analysts within the G-2 ACE collated insights on Russia’s on-going “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine to learn about the contemporary Russian way of war, understand how they were adapting and innovating across enduring Large Scale Combat Operations, and identify potential ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P. The associated weekly “scrum” methodology generating weekly TRADOC Running Estimates and associated Narratives is described in greater detail in this Red Diamond article.
Beginning in January 2024, the G-2 ACE adapted this methodology to address its FY24 Program of Analysis key intelligence questions spanning the OE and conducted bi-weekly “scrums” to generate monthly OE Running Estimates and associated Narratives, and quarterly OE Assessments.
Each of these weekly TRADOC Running Estimates and monthly OE Running Estimates were “synchronized” with corresponding classified products prior to their publication to ensure the highest fidelity and accuracy in OE reporting. Capturing these insights has proven invaluable in the G-2 describing the evolving OE — foundational to TRADOC’s mission of training Soldiers and supporting unit training; developing adaptive Leaders; guiding the Army through doctrine; and shaping the Army by building and integrating formations, capabilities, and materiel. Links to our archives of these TRADOC and OE Running Estimates may be found at the end of this blog post.
In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, to discuss why OSINT is important to the Army, how it is being used in contemporary operations, and how he sees it evolving over the next 10 years — Enjoy!]
Mr. Shawn M. Nilius was appointed Director, Army Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) Office in March 2022. The Army OSINT Office (AOO) serves as the OSINT operational support lead for Army OSINT and provides technical oversight, compliance, management, and governance of open-source activities while synchronizing resourcing and requirements across the Army Intelligence and Security Enterprise (AISE). Prior to becoming a Department of the Army civilian, Mr. Nilius served as a career Army Military Intelligence Officer, whose previous assignments included Director of Intelligence (G-2), U.S. Army Africa; Director, Combined Joint Intelligence Operations Center, U.S. Forces Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan; Director, Joint Intelligence Center Special Operations Command, U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida; and Director of Intelligence (J-2), U.S. Forces – Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq. Mr. Nilius has a Masters of Science, Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania; a Masters of Science, Strategic Intelligence-Middle Eastern Studies, National Intelligence University, Washington, DC; and a Bachelors of Arts, Political Science, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, to learn what OSINT is, how it is collected, and how it is having an impact on current conflicts. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:
- OSINT is not the same as Publicly Available Information (PAI). Around 85% of the information available worldwide is PAI – this includes content on the internet. However, the general population spends most of their time being exposed to only 4% of the entirety of the internet – the tip of the iceberg. Below the surface, in the deep and dark web, is where the Army goes to counter nefarious actors.
- Not everyone can collect OSINT. Only intelligence professionals with an assigned mission, authorities, and a collection requirement from the Commander can retrieve open-source information and process it into finished intelligence.
- Training intelligence professionals in OSINT collection is vital. The Armywas the first service to put OSINT training into the training program at the Intelligence Center of Excellence. After completion, collectors are given a set of ‘tools’ to use on the open internet to aid in their search. The Army OSINT office also monitors all collectors’ actions to ensure compliance with guidance, rules, and applicable laws.
- OSINT is not new, but changes in the character of warfare have impacted OSINT collection – predominantly the increase in the speed of the battlefield. Recent conflicts have shown that information from the battlefield can be communicated in near real-time. For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was first shown through a civilian with a cellphonelive-streaming the Russian tanks crossing the border – publicly available information, captured by a collector, and turned into intelligence.
- Misinformation and disinformationwill flood a collector’s search. Properly trained, they will be able to identify fact from fiction.Early in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, video surfaced online of troops parachuting into the battlefield, purporting to be a recent development. A seasoned OSINT collector correctly identified the video as footage from the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
- OSINT should be the ‘INT’ of first resort. The speed at which it can be collected, processed, exploited, and disseminated means that it should be used to ‘tip’ or ‘cue’ the other INTs early in the planning and operations stages. The Army can use OSINT to quickly and effectively orient their decision making in the right direction to ultimately achieveinformation advantage.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 30 May 2024, featuring LtCol Erik Keim (USMC) discussing the Future Dynamics of Warfare project he and his AWC classmates collaborated on, his research on blending in the electromagnetic spectrum, and how the Army can adapt to the modern battlefield.
If you enjoyed this post, check out our series of blog posts exploring what we’re learning about the Operational Environment:
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
WMD Threat: Now and in the Future
The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment (OE) and how our adversaries fight, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).
Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our RUS-UKR Conflict SharePoint site’s weekly TRADOC Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.
Our OE Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Information Paper (TIP).
Read the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory posts:
Democratized Intelligence and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore
Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare
Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore
Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated content and videos
China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan
97. Threat #49: I Think There's Trouble Brewin' with Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton
[Editor’s Note: Humanity is entering an era of hyper-innovation as the potential of Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Neurocognitive Sciences are harnessed to revolutionize human endeavors. As these …
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[Editor’s Note: Humanity is entering an era of hyper-innovation as the potential of Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Neurocognitive Sciences are harnessed to revolutionize human endeavors. As these exponential convergences of technologies spin ever faster cycles of adaptation and innovation, the quest for dominance and advantage will favor those who jettison outdated industrial age processes and implement (and resource!) whole-of-nation strategies integrating private and public sector science and technology enterprises.
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, our “rock star” proclaimed Mad Scientists — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — return to discuss the transformative convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence and its implications for the Operational Environment — Read on!]
Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC. Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC, think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.
Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books, and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps.
Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high-tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community, and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government.
Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart, The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, and been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss a new threat that combines neuroscience and artificial intelligence. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- Big Datais underpinning advances in both neurocognitive sciences and artificial intelligence – especially machine learning and deep learning. The exponential convergence of technologies (Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Information Technology, Cognitive Science and Neuroscience, and Quantum Science) is leading to revolutionary achievements – we’re on the cusp of realizing neuromorphic chips that mimic brain function.
- The private sector has made significant leaps forward in the advancement of big data, synthetic intelligence, and neuroscience, while the Government is just now catching up to integrating the convergence of these technologies into our capabilities.
- We are currently in an era in which innovation is happening near simultaneously, facilitated by the exploitation of entirely new kinds of artificial intelligence. “AI time” is infinitely collapsible – computing time has become exponentially quicker than human labor.Large Language Models and pattern recognition algorithms are revolutionizing creativity and innovation across all human endeavors, including competition and conflict.
- Due to the rapid pace of science and technology advancements and convergences, we must be on the other side of perfect — better is truly the enemy of good enough! Twentieth century industrial age processes taking multiple years or even decades to yield exquisite and expensive capabilities are no longer viable in an era of rapid adaptation— we will compete and fight in an Operational Environment where adversarial systems will be smaller, faster, cheaper, and more disposable. Moore’s Law is out – instead of 18 months for advancements to double, it’s now 18 days.
- Our previous fights have been asymmetrical — the next war will be far more symmetrical as advances in science and technology continue.While our international peer competitors have well-defined strategic scientific and technological plans, the U.S. lacks a strategic plan of the same caliber. A whole-of-nations approach is necessary to define a unified government posture and strategic plan for science and technology, married to a governmentally-sponsored effort to join the research and commercial communities to realize this plan -– absent this, we will fail.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 16 May 2024, featuring Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, discussing why OSINT is important to the Army, how it is being used in contemporary operations, and how he sees it evolving over the next 10 years!
If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out our previous pairing featuring Mad Scientist’s “James Gang” — One Brain Chip, Please! Neuro-AI with two of the Maddest Scientists and associated podcast
… review the following related content:
Speed, Scope, and Convergence Trends
There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Dr. Inderpal Bhandari
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC
The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC
Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast
Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas
“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
WMD Threat: Now and in the Future
The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS
… then crank up the original James Gang‘s Funk #49 !
>>>>REMINDER: Army Mad Scientist wants to crowdsource your thoughts on asymmetric warfare — check out our Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest.
All entries must address the following topic:
How have innovations in asymmetric warfare impacted modern large scale and other combat operations, and what further evolutions could take place, both within the next 10 years and on towards mid-century?
We are accepting three types of submissions:
- 1500-word Non-Fiction Essay
- 1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story
- Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette
Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged!
All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: [email protected]
Click here for additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
96. Calling All Wargamers and Mad Sci Update!
[Editor’s Note: Crowdsourcing remains an effective tool for harvesting ideas and concepts from a wide array of individuals, helping us to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions. Army Mad …
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[Editor’s Note: Crowdsourcing remains an effective tool for harvesting ideas and concepts from a wide array of individuals, helping us to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions. Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with two concurrent opportunities this Spring. In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we explore these crowdsourcing opportunities — Read the highlights here, listen to the podcast, then get busy crafting your inputs to both!]
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientists Matthew Santaspirt and Raechel Melling discuss our two concurrent crowdsourcing opportunities: Calling All Wargamers and Wicked Problems Writing Contest — check out the highlights from this conversation below.
[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]
- Calling All Wargamers!
Regular consumers of Army Mad Scientist content — via this blog site and The Convergence podcast — understand how wargaming can enhance Professional Military Education (PME), hone cognitive warfighting skills, and broaden our understanding of the Operational Environment. Wargaming removes hierarchies and encourages players to attempt innovative solutions, while also creating a safe environment in which to fail repeatedly and learn from mistakes. Wargaming can also help us assess concepts and capabilities with a reasonable degree of verisimilitude — before committing the Nation to costly, and in some instances, irrevocable courses of action. In challenging our assumptions and reinvigorating our thoughts about Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), wargaming can be a useful tool in facilitating life-long learning and guarding against that most fatal of flaws in assessing the Operational Environment — the failure of imagination!
Army Mad Scientist wants to hear from you about your wargaming experiences:
- What are you learning about LSCO?
- What wargames do you find useful for learning about military operations?
- If you could imagine the perfect wargame, what would it look like?
- What Great Power peripheral flashpoints are you gaming?
- What emergent technologies (or convergences) are you integrating into your wargaming?
- What compelling insights from gaming would you most like to share with the U.S. Army?
Submit your responses to these questions and more at: [email protected] NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 1, 2024.
Check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog posts on wargaming:
Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts One and Two)
Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan
Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth
Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges
A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle
From Legos to Modular Simulation Architectures: Enabling the Power of Future (War) Play, by Jennifer McArdle and Caitlin Dohrman
The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY
The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives with Cathy Hackl and associated podcast
Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast
Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast
- Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest
During the past decade, conflicts around the globe have shaped our understanding of Twenty-first Century warfighting. The convergence of battlefield transparency, autonomous systems, and massed and precision fires have resulted in an increasingly lethal OE. Inexpensive, expendable, man-portable precision munitions in the hands of dismounted infantry are attriting exquisite, expensive, and finite combat systems — main battle tanks, capital warships, and strategic bombers — once the “gold-standard” of global military strength and dominance.
Army Mad Scientist is hosting a writing contest to explore this aspect of the OE. All entries must address the following topic:
How have innovations in asymmetric warfare impacted modern large scale and other combat operations, and what further evolutions could take place, both within the next 10 years and on towards mid-century?
We are accepting three types of submissions:
- 1500-word Non-Fiction Essay
- 1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story
- Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette
Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged!
All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: [email protected]
Click here for additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation!
Check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog posts associated with previous writing contests:
The Future of the AI Battlefield:
Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield
The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda
The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi
Back to the Future:
Task Force Wolf, by proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez
The Operational Environment: What Will Change and What Will Drive It – Today to 2035?
Splinternets, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Howard R. Simkin
The Operational Environment in 2035 Writing Contest:
Louisiana Maneuvers for the Age of Artificial Intelligence, by proclaimed Mad Scientist MAJ Michael B. Kim
The Information Disruption Industry and the Operational Environment of the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Vincent H. O’Neil
Military Implications of Smart Cities, by Alexander Braszko, Jr.
Information Warfare Vignettes Writing Contest:
Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Davis Ellison, Tony Stark, and Rob Kunzig
Competition, Crisis, Conflict, and Change Writing Contest:
The U.S. Joint Force’s Defeat before Conflict, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Anjanay Kumar
The Future of War is Cyber! by CPT Casey Igo and CPT Christian Turley
A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat, by 1LT Carlin Keally
CALLING ALL CREATORS ~ An Army Mad Scientist Multi-Media Contest:
Kryptós, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Katherine Hathaway
2nd Dense Urban Armored Brigade (DUAB) Personnel Evaluations, by Ed dos Santos, Jr.
Fall / Winter 2021 Writing Contest:
OASIS: A North American Proving Ground, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Steve Pomper
The Army’s Next Failed War: Large Scale Combat Operations, by proclaimed Mad Scientist MAJ Anthony Joyce
On Surprise Attacks Below the “Bolt from the Blue” Threshold, by Lesley Kucharski
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 2 May 2024, featuring Dennis Eger, Senior OSINT Advisor, and Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, discussing why OSINT is important to the Army, how it’s being used in contemporary operations, and how they see it evolving over the next 10 years!Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
95. African Skies: Space Exploration and National Security Perspectives with Selina Hayes
“China sits in INDOPACOM, but the playground is Africa.” [Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) reported …
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“China sits in INDOPACOM, but the playground is Africa.”
[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) reported, “Relatively poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will account for almost all global population growth during the next two decades…” The World Economic Forum supported this assessment, projecting that Africa’s population is likely to triple by 2100. Specifically, Nigeria is set to become the second most populous country in the world by 2100, trailing only India.
The significance of this growth is not lost on China — our pacing challenge has already established a permanent military presence in Djibouti and it is seeking to establish another military base at Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. China is investing strategically throughout sub-Saharan Africa — it is now Africa’s biggest trading partner, with Sino-African trade exceeding $200 billion per year, and Africa has surpassed Asia as the largest market for China’s international construction projects. China continues to exert its influence across the continent via its Belt and Road Initiative.
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Selina Hayes, Founder and CEO of The Hayes Group International, to discuss the nexus of space investment and operations in Africa — a critical region of focus for our adversaries — and the potential implications for the U.S. Army — Enjoy!]
Selina Hayes founded Hayes Group International (HGI) to provide unique access to people, places, and data. Designed to disrupt, Ms. Hayes has access to strategic partners and networks across Africa and the Pacific. With her intelligence background and unique on-the-ground experience, HGI has developed and delivered solutions involving multiple intelligence sensors, information gateways, information operations, cultural intelligence, data collection, geospatial, ISR, and Space-as-a-Service. Ms. Hayes has extensive experience leading defense and international business development strategies for emerging and disruptive ISR, PED, and geospatial technologies. She successfully combined the innovation of Silicon Valley with Washington, having successfully launched three new technologies in the DoD ecosystem to expand the capabilities of our country. As HGI’s CEO, Ms. Hayes has introduced her connections in Africa and the Pacific with this unique access to exquisite data sources and nonconventional methodologies.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Ms. Hayes to discuss her work in creating access to the Space Domain in Africa and why the DoD should pay more attention to that continent. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- The Hayes Group International is a team of individuals that problem solves in unique parts of the world, specifically the continent of Africa, focusing on disruptive technology and how that tech is integrated into society.
- Africa has become less of a focus with the U.S. national security shift from counterinsurgency to strategic competition— however, Africa is a playground for our adversaries. From a national security standpoint, it is critical to assess Chinese and Russian influences on the continent.
- Financial institutions and commercial entities play an influential role in most African countries. Companies, such as Walmart and Amazon, are often more influentialto Africa than some nations. DoD has an opportunity to evaluate the role these organizations could play in national security and possible prospects for future collaboration in the region.
- Africa is home to natural reserves of several rare earth materials needed for satellites and other critical military and commercial technology. More than 950 pounds of rare earth and critical minerals go into every F-35 combat aircraft and Cobalt is used as a vital component of lithium-ion batteries, of which 68% of the world’s supply of cobalt sits in the ground in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- The Hayes Group International, along with partners in Kenya, are working to establish a space port on the east coast of Africa.A space port would economically and strategically benefit Kenya, Africa, and surrounding nations, as many countries and organizations, including the U.S. and DoD, heavily depend on space-based capabilities. Today’s maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). The Army can explore this region cooperatively, and gain access to a new set of capabilities in a geographically and strategically important area.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 18 April 2024.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page, brimming with threat content, including:
Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link);
… our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we have been learning about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P;
… and our Iran and North Korea Products pages, with additional threat information.
Also review the following Mad Scientist Laboratory space and technology content:
Building Beyond: Preparing the Army for Lift-Off and associated podcast, with Dr. Olga Bannova
LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow
Space: Challenges and Opportunities
Star Wars 2050, The Final Frontier: Directed Energy Applications in Outer Space, and The Evolution of Nation-States and Their Role in the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy
Beyond Space and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Kara Cunzeman
Space 2035: A Surplus of Uncertainty and a Deficit of Trust, by Maj Rachel Reynolds
Accelerating American Space Settlements, by Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos
Table of Future Technologies: A 360 Degree View Based on Anticipated Availability, by Richard Buchter
… as well as the Dr. Moriba Jah on What Does the Future Hold for the US Military in Space? podcast hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute
94. A surprise Interview With a Mystery Guest
This is a special off-schedule episode of The Convergence where we talk with a mystery guest, possibly for the last time!
93. Insights from the Israel-Hamas War with LTC Kenneth Hardy
[Editor’s Note: It has almost been a decade since U.S. forces and coalition partners assisted Iraqi government forces in dislodging ISIS fighters from Mosul in what some observers described as the toughest …
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[Editor’s Note: It has almost been a decade since U.S. forces and coalition partners assisted Iraqi government forces in dislodging ISIS fighters from Mosul in what some observers described as the toughest urban battle since World War II. With the Islamic Resistance Movement’s (aka Hamas) October 7, 2023 cross-border terror attacks on Israel and subsequent Israel Defense Forces’ combat operations in Gaza, new lessons are emerging about engaging an entrenched adversary across 360 square kilometers of densely populated (over 2 million Palestinian civilians) and highly urbanized terrain.
As Dr. Brent Sterling reminded our readers and listeners, other observers are also watching and learning — especially our pacing challenge China with regard to potential operations in dense urban centers on Taiwan, North Korea with its subterranean operations beneath the Demilitarized Zone, and Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” in continuing to target U.S. and Israeli interests.
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with LTC Kenneth Hardy, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) liaison officer to the Israel Defense Forces, and discusses the on-going Israel/Hamas Conflict and key lessons the U.S. Army is learning about contemporary asymmetric warfare in dense urban terrain — Read on!]
LTC Kenneth Hardy currently serves as the U.S. Army TRADOC Liaison Officer to the Israel Defense Forces. A Middle East Foreign Area Officer, LTC Hardy’s previous assignments have included In-Region Training (IRT) as a U.S. Security Cooperation Officer to the Moroccan Military in Rabat, Morocco; Political/ Military advisor to the Commander, USARCENT, and Security Cooperation/Liaison Officer to Kuwait and Qatar Armed Forces; Security Assistance Officer to the Egyptian Land Forces and Border Guard in Cairo, Egypt; and Middle East Analyst and CENTCOM J2 International Engagements, Tampa, Florida. LTC Hardy has a Bachelor’s Degree in Chemistry from the University of Central Oklahoma, an Associate’s Degree in Arabic from the Defense Language Institute, and a Master’s Degree in International Relations and Policy from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Hardy to discuss his observations regarding the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel and insights into how this larger conflict is informing the U.S. Army about the Operational Environment. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas showcases the battle between low-tech and high-tech — for example Hamas employed massed salvoes of inexpensive, home-made Qassam rockets and grenades dropped by drones to defeat parts of Israel’s multi-million-dollar Iron Dome missile defense system.
- Close integration of maneuver and specialized units is vital to any future conflict — especially so on complex terrain. The mobility of the IDF’s mechanized forces is being challenged in Gaza’s dense urban environment, with rubble further hampering maneuver, forcing them to learn on the fly from already thinly-stretched combat engineers.
- Subterranean operationsis a huge force multiplier. Hamas leveraged years of experience excavating and improving its network of tunnels to maximize their survivability, incorporating twists and turns to baffle blast effects and create chokepoints to slow the IDF’s infiltration.
- Air superiority needs to be redefined. The IDF assumed air superiority through its investment in exquisite, finite, capital-intensive, manned aircraft, but have been significantly challenged to identify, track, and target the host of small Unmanned Aerial Systems employed by Hamas.
- The U.S. Army cannot assume success. The IDF’s overconfidence in their air and subterranean superiority blinded them to a low-tech ground invasion across the border. Adaptation is a critical element of victory that requires innovation and innovative thinking. The U.S. Army will be challenged to keep pace with any adversary that can adapt at a rapid rate on the battlefield.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 28 March 2024, featuring Selina Hayes, Founder and CEO of The Hayes Group International, discussing space investment and operations in Africa — a critical region of focus for our adversaries — and the potential implications for the U.S. Army.
>>>>REMINDER: Army Mad Scientist wants to crowdsource your thoughts on asymmetric warfare — check out our Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest.
All entries must address the following topic:
How have innovations in asymmetric warfare impacted modern large scale and other combat operations, and what further evolutions could take place, both within the next 10 years and on towards mid-century?
We are accepting three types of submissions:
- 1500-word Non-Fiction Essay
- 1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story
- Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette
Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged!
All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: [email protected]
Click here for additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation!
If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:
TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92-1, The Changing Character of Warfare: The Urban Operational Environment, April 2020.
Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore
Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace
Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)
The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality
Extremism on the Horizon: The Challenges of VEO Innovation, by Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin
Current and Future Operations in Megacities Conference: Observations and Recommendations, facilitated in Tokyo on 16-19 July 2019 — also review this conference’s complete Proceedings, as well as select speakers’ slide decks, presenter biographies, and conference agenda.
Megacities: Future Challenges and Responses, documenting key insights from the Multi Domain Battle (MDB) In Megacities Conference, facilitated at Fort Hamilton, New York, on 3-4 April 2018, as well as the agenda, presenter biographies, slide decks, associated videos of presentations, and conference Proceedings.
War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now and associated podcast, and Ukraine: All Roads Lead to Urban and associated podcast, with MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.)
A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations
Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050
Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation
2nd Dense Urban Armored Brigade (DUAB) Personnel Evaluations, by Ed dos Santos, Jr.
Fifth Generation Combat: SubTerranean Ops in Singapore, by the Radio Research Group
Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
92. Know Your Enemy: Army Doctrine Starts with the Threat
[Editor’s Note: Grizzled readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall their well-thumbed copies of the forty-year-old FM 100-2 series, The Soviet Army. U.S. Army Soldiers and Leaders from the Cold …
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[Editor’s Note: Grizzled readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall their well-thumbed copies of the forty-year-old FM 100-2 series, The Soviet Army. U.S. Army Soldiers and Leaders from the Cold War-era were expected to know their Soviet adversaries’ Operations and Tactics; Troops, Organization, and Equipment; and Specialized Warfare and Rear Area Support cold — as international tensions and crises could (and frequently did!) escalate to trigger alerts at a moment’s notice, sending units racing forward from their garrisons to occupy their GDP positions… ready and prepared to counter Soviet and their Warsaw Pact allies’ forces advancing across the Inner German Border (IGB)!
Flash forward to today’s Army, where knowledge of the Operational Environment (OE) and the five National Defense Strategy Threats — China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) — remain critical competencies within the Profession of Arms.
In this episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist partnered with the Breaking Doctrine podcast from the Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate, U.S. Army Combined Arms Center (CAC), to co-host a fascinating discussion with General Gary M. Brito, Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Colonel Rich Creed (USA-Ret.), Director, Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate, U.S. Army CAC, and Mr. Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, TRADOC G-2, exploring how understanding the OE and knowing Threat Doctrine remain core Soldier and Leader competencies, underpinning how the Army will fight and win decisively in the 21st century battlespace — Read on!]
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General Gary M. Brito assumed duties as the 18th Commanding General, United States Army TRADOC, on September 8, 2022. He is responsible for building and sustaining a highly trained, disciplined, and fit Army by acquiring the best people, training the most lethal Soldiers, developing the most professional leaders, guiding the Army’s culture, and shaping the future force.
COL Rich Creed was commissioned an Armor officer in 1989 from the U.S. Military Academy and retired from active duty in 2021 after a variety of command and staff assignments from platoon to four-star level. Mr. Creed has been the Director of the Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate at Fort Leavenworth since December 2016, where he helped write and edit the last two versions of the Army’s capstone operations publication, FM 3-0. He was one of the authors and editors of ADP 6-22 (Mission Command: C2 of Army Forces) and ADP 3-13 (Information).
Mr. Ian Sullivan is the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, TRADOC G-2. He holds a BA from Canisius University in Buffalo, New York, an MA from Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies in Washington, D.C., and was a Fulbright Fellow at the Universität Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany. A career civilian intelligence officer, Mr. Sullivan has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence; Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) at the National Counterterrorism Center; the Central Intelligence Agency; and TRADOC. He is a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and was first promoted to the senior civilian ranks in 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service.
Army Mad Scientist and Breaking Doctrine sat down with GEN Brito and Messrs. Creed and Sullivan to explore competence in the Army Profession, the importance of Threat Doctrine, and how we can ensure our Army is prepared for the next fight. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
- Our doctrine works because it starts with the enemy. It drives our thought processes, our operations, and even our on-going modernization. Competence as an Army professional includes educating at every echelon and instilling a strong baseline understanding of the threats we face: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs).
- Aside from Professional Military Education (PME), Soldiers should be expected to rely on their own self-development – taking what was learned in PME and applying it to what is being observed on the battlefield, in the news, or regarding historical accounts. Leveraging historical fiction – Team Yankee or Red Storm Rising, for example – can contextualize the threat, make it more real, and help facilitate understanding.
- The Operational Environment (OE) is more complex and dynamic now than thirty years ago because it has more and varied actors – nation states, groups of nation states, trans-national alliances, large non-governmental organizations, VEOs, and super-empowered individuals. This means that all aspects of the DIME spectrum (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic) move faster and in a more rapid cycle. This necessitates U.S. Leaders who can accept confusion and discomfort and adapt quickly and dynamically.
- GEN Brito believes that everyone – all Army components and civilian professionals – needs to be “on board” to embrace this level of development in their respective skillset and a have true understanding of an enemy’s capabilities. For Soldiers that means PME at Basic Officer Leader Course to the Captains Career Course and through the Command and General Staff College.
- We will never get it exactly right, but if we’re constantly thinking about it, and studying it, we’ll never be surprised by the adversaries’ thought process. We must be able to close our eyes and visualize the fight over time and space. We cannot afford another failure of imagination.
91. Building Beyond: Preparing the Army for Lift-Off featuring Dr. Olga Bannova
[Editor’s Note: As longtime readers of the Army’s Mad Scientist Laboratory know, our adversaries are deploying capabilities to fight the U.S. Joint Force through multiple layers of stand-off in all domains …
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[Editor’s Note: As longtime readers of the Army’s Mad Scientist Laboratory know, our adversaries are deploying capabilities to fight the U.S. Joint Force through multiple layers of stand-off in all domains – space, cyber, air, sea, and land. Per the Defense Intelligence Agency‘s Challenges to Security in Space 2022: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition and Expansion:
“Between 2019 and 2021 the combined operational space fleets of China and Russia have grown by approximately 70 percent. This recent and continuing expansion follows a period of growth (2015–2018) where China and Russia had increased their combined satellite fleets by more than 200 percent. The drive to modernize and increase capabilities for both countries is reflected in nearly all major space categories—satellite communications (SATCOM), remote sensing, navigation-related, and science and technology demonstration. Since early 2019, competitor space operations have also increased in pace and scope worldwide, China’s and Russia’s counterspace developments continue to mature, global space services proliferate, and orbital congestion has increased.”
Preserving our advantage in the space domain is critical — a contemporary U.S. Army maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). This number of dependent systems will only increase as emerging technology on Earth demands increased bandwidth, new orbital infrastructure, niche satellite capabilities, and advanced robotics. Dominance in the space domain is vital to Joint Force and U.S. Army operations.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Dr. Olga Bannova, Director of the Space Architecture Graduate Program, University of Houston, to discuss designing vehicles and habitats for space, how we can use austere environments here on Earth as proving grounds, and what these environments can teach the U.S. Army. — Enjoy!]
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Dr. Olga Bannova, conducts research and design studies that address a variety of topics, including: planning analyses for a broad range of space vehicles, habitats, and systems; inflatable hydroponics laboratory and logistic modules; special design influences and requirements for different gravity conditions in space; and habitat concepts for extreme environments on Earth. She is a corresponding member of International Academy of Astronautics, IAC Space and Society Symposiums coordinator, senior member of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, a Chair of the AIAA Space Architecture Technical Committee, and an elected member of the ASCE’s Executive Committee on Space Engineering and Construction. She recently received 2019 Outstanding Technical Contribution Award from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Aerospace Division. Dr. Bannova earned her PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, in 2016, and Master in Architecture and M.S. in Space Architecture from the University of Houston in 2001 and 2005. She authored Space Architecture Education for Engineers and Architects (Springer, 2016) and Space Architecture: Human Habitats Beyond Planet Earth (DOM Publishers, 2021). Prior to arrival to Houston, she worked as a professional architect in Moscow, Russia, on industrial, office, and healthcare projects. Several of her designs have been built in Moscow city, and in the Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts.
Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Bannova to discuss designing vehicles and habitats for space, how we can use austere environments here on Earth as proving grounds, and what these environments can teach the U.S. Army. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:
When astronauts depart Gateway to return to Earth via the Orion spacecraft. / Source: NASA
- Space architecture entails designing and building habitable spaces for humans in outer space,ideally for extended periods of time. Mission planning is essential to the design process – understanding the details of the mission (purpose, location, duration) and the required engineering support.
- It is critical that systems designed for space integrate perfectly with the needs and ability of the crew, as well as the surrounding environment. Any design mistake can lead to loss of the structure, mission, and human life.
- Space architects attempt to replicate space characteristics for testing conducted on Earth. Air-tight facilities are used to test certain systems, such as life support systems, while operations and psychological effects can be tested in isolated or confined environments. Bannova’s lab recently constructed an extended reality facility combining low fidelity mockups with virtual habitat designs to test crew operations.
- As the Army looks to operate in varying environments from dense urbanto arcticconditions, systems must be designed through careful mission planning vice modifying or retrofitting current systems. Space conditions can be brutal to system integrity and employment, therefore space architecture concepts for robust structures, wheels, suspension, cargo and crew protection, and weight and payload restrictions can all be applied to Army system design for use in austere environments.
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 29 February 2024, in collaboration with the Breaking Doctrine podcast — featuring GEN Gary Brito, Commanding General, Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, TRADOC G-2, and Richard Creed, Director, Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate — discussing the importance of threat doctrine, changes in the Operational Environment that drive new doctrine, and strengthening the Army profession by understanding the threat.
If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related Army Mad Scientist content:
LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow
Space: Challenges and Opportunities
Star Wars 2050 and The Final Frontier: Directed Energy Applications in Outer Space, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy
Beyond Space and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Kara Cunzeman
Space 2035: A Surplus of Uncertainty and a Deficit of Trust, by Maj Rachel Reynolds
Table of Future Technologies: A 360 Degree View Based on Anticipated Availability, by Richard Buchter
… as well as the Dr. Moriba Jah on What Does the Future Hold for the US Military in Space? podcast hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
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