Is NVIDIA About to Guide Down? The AI Credit Crunch Explained
Notas do episódio
Fabio from MenthorQ (options and gamma data, ex-Bloomberg) joins Avi Mash, JFDI and Father of Trades on The Daily Stack.
Could NVIDIA ($NVDA) guide down for the first time? With Treasury yields hitting 5%, the panel covers the AI credit crunch, Nebius ($NBIS) before Thursday's earnings, options volume at a 20-year high and the Anthropic IPO.
Treasury yields hit 5% and NVIDIA is getting crushed. Father of Trades explains how the AI credit crunch is reaching NVIDIA's customers and asks whether data center cancellations could lead to NVIDIA's first guide down in a long time. Fabio reads the options data on Nebius, ICE and the Nasdaq, the panel asks whether neoclouds can keep borrowing to buy GPUs that lose value fast, and Fabio says some of these selloffs could become generational opportunities. Father of Trades explains his Rigetti ($RGTI) short, and the panel closes with the Fed, shorting gold into the rate decision and their favorite shorts.
Key takeaways:
- Fabio said options volume is about 70 million contracts a day, the highest level in 20 years and seven or eight times bigger than in 2006.
- Fabio said investment banker friends tell him about 20% of data center projects are being put on hold.
- Father of Trades said a lot of NVIDIA's customers are struggling to be funded, so a first guide down is at least a reasonable question, and the Anthropic IPO could suck a lot of liquidity out of the market.
- Father of Trades called Rigetti a $4 billion company that makes about $2 million per quarter.
- The panel expects metals to get hit again into the next rate decision and talked about shorting gold and silver.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: the cold open
0:31 Treasury yields at 5%, NVIDIA getting crushed
1:19 Father of Trades: the AI credit crunch hits NVIDIA
3:26 Buying NVIDIA shares while trading puts
3:56 Fabio from MenthorQ: reading the options data
5:41 Nebius before earnings: how MenthorQ differs from flow tools
8:15 Can neoclouds keep borrowing to buy depreciating GPUs?
11:55 Data center projects on hold: 20% paused
12:08 Nebius risk: Microsoft's Vineland deal slips to 2027
13:22 Father of Trades shorts Rigetti: a $4B company with $2M revenue
15:15 Ledn sponsor break
16:01 Rates, Iran and NVIDIA earnings next week
16:21 Could NVIDIA guide down? Anthropic IPO and liquidity
17:59 Is the Anthropic IPO bad timing?
19:07 OpenAI IPO timing and AI monetization
20:18 Can AI replace developers?
21:14 Closer to the bottom? Mini monsters: LMT, SharkNinja, CKX
24:01 BlackBerry holding steady
24:40 Fabio: hunting 52-week lows; Coinbase and AXON
27:27 ICE breakout and MenthorQ's AI read
28:36 Nasdaq, Visa, Mastercard and XLF
30:39 Will the Fed hike? Shorting gold into the decision
31:19 Fabio's catalysts into year-end
32:18 Favorite shorts: NBIS, GLW, FEIM, RGTI, QBTS, IREN
34:33 Next on the show and wrap-up
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