The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute

Canada’s latest federal budget comes with some very big numbers.  

A more resilient economy has left the government with stronger revenues and billions of dollars in expected savings. And Ottawa’s massive spending plan – roughly $151 billion in net new spending over the next five years – largely aims to invest in and strengthen the Canadian economy and its sovereignty.  

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s second budget includes spending aimed at attracting investment, advancing major projects, targeted support for high-growth businesses, the previously-announced Productivity Mega Deduction as well as details on immigration levels. 

It also includes measures intended to help households still struggling with the cost of living and some new funding to combat homelessness.  

Rebekah Young, Vice President of Economic Policy at Scotiabank, joins the podcast from the federal budget lockup in Ottawa to assess whether this budget meets the moment and Canada's overall fiscal trajectory. 

Read Rebekah’s full report on the 2026 federal budget: Canada’s 2026 Federal Budget: A Big Savings, Big Spend Budget 

Key moments this episode:  

00:01:41 - Rebekah's headline takeaway to sum up the budget 
00:02:01 - What the budget tells us about Canada's overall economic outlook 
00:04:22 - Rebekah's interpretation of the budget title, ‘Masters of Our Destiny’ 
00:05:55 - Rebekah's analysis of Canada's fiscal trajectory with this new spending 
00:06:35 - Other areas of investment such as tackling homelessness 
00:08:13 - What the budget does to address affordability concerns 
00:09:08 - How the budget builds on the previously announced Productivity Mega Deduction 
00:11:31 - What we know so far about the Canada Strong Fund 
00:12:34 - New details on meeting NATO's 2035 defence expenditure requirement 
00:14:16 - The new immigration plan 
00:15:18 - How immigration numbers meet labour force requirements for future major projects 
18:23 - Whether new expenditures raise inflation concerns as the Bank of Canada hikes rates 
00:20:34 - Will this budget spur investment? 
00:22:39 - What matters most for businesses and investors in this budget? 
00:23:55 - What Rebekah will be watching in the next six to 12 months 
00:25:04 - Rebekah's main takeaways from this budget 

For the first time in three years, the Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing it to 2.50%. 

The widely- expected move is aimed at containing inflation, which high oil prices have pushed up to around 3% – the upper limit of the central bank’s target range – since April. And while many businesses have absorbed high energy costs, Bank of Canada surveys suggest some may soon pass these increases onto consumers, spurring broader inflation concerns.  

This tightening comes amid ongoing trade uncertainty with the United States and as Canada pushes forward with major infrastructure and resource projects to bolster the country’s economy long-term.  

Olivier Gervais, the Director of Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank, says a rate hike was the right call given all of these factors. While this will increase the cost of capital for businesses, the impact will likely be small relative to transformative government policies like the Productivity Mega Deduction put forward to incentivize business investment and generate economic activity. Keeping inflation in check is also a far more important factor for fostering a positive business climate, he added. 

Gervais joins this episode of The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute, in partnership with the Perspectives podcast, to break down why the central bank decided to hike now, what it means for Canadian consumers, businesses, and why one rate hike is likely not enough. 

Key Moments: 

00:01:40 – Olivier's main takeaways from the rate increase decision
00:02:56 – What changed since the Bank of Canada's last decision?
00:04:25 – How the central bank weighs uncertainties like oil prices and ongoing trade talks
00:06:00 – The likelihood of future rate increases 
00:06:39 – What are the conditions for economic growth in Canada like?
00:08:31 – How much the rate hike tempers investment and how much recent policies incentivize it
00:09:51 – What the rate hike means for consumers
00:10:35 – What the rate hike means for businesses
00:11:05 – How different sectors will be affected
00:12:01 – Olivier provides an overview of the housing market in Canada
00:13:34 – What would need to happen for the Bank of Canada not to raise rates in the next decision
00:14:31 – What Olivier will be watching until the next decision
00:15:20 – Key points for Canadians to know from the decision

The proposed Pacific Link pipeline could significantly expand Canada’s ability to get its energy resources to global markets. But getting a project of this scale built will depend on how the country navigates questions around cost, construction, investment, Indigenous participation and execution. 

In this episode of The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute, presented in partnership with The Hub, Patrick Bryden speaks with Falice Chin, Alberta Bureau Chief for The Hub, about why Patrick sees the federal government’s decision to designate Pacific Link as a project of national interest as a “flashing green light”.  

They discuss three potential scenarios for the project, including how construction timelines, inflation, labour shortages and other pressures could affect its ultimate cost. They also examine Indigenous participation and ownership, the commercial framework needed to support the pipeline, and the potential economic and strategic benefits of expanding Canada’s access to global energy markets. 

The conversation also looks beyond Pacific Link to a much bigger question: whether Canada can turn its major-project ambitions into reality, while balancing regional interests and building projects effectively and responsibly. 

Related content: 

· ⁠Building Canada Initiatives: Pacific Link – A Flashing Green Light⁠ 

· ⁠Building Canada Initiatives: Year One Progress Report — The Shovels Are Calling⁠ 

Key Moments: 

00:01:28: Why Pacific Link is a “flashing green light”
00:04:50: Why Pacific Link is crucial for Canada’s economy
00:07:04: Three scenarios for building Pacific Link 
00:11:54: Managing inflation and major project cost pressures
00:13:48: The challenge of “scaling the expenditure wall”
00:16:24: Why Canada is in somewhat “uncharted waters” with so many projects
00:18:36: The importance of building meaningful Indigenous partnerships and participation
00:19:42: How the model is moving from agreements and more towards equity
00:24:46: How might uncertainties in the bond markets impact the cost of borrowing?
00:26:38: The economic and strategic benefits for Canada
00:29:46: Discussing tolls and the commercial case for Pacific Link
00:31:58: What Patrick will be watching for in the coming months

As part of a push to spur new business investment in Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the new Productivity Mega Deduction at the Canada Investment Summit. This proposed new tax incentive would apply to more than 65% of capital assets and allow eligible businesses to immediately deduct qualifying investments, effectively lowering the after-tax cost of investing. 

In this episode of The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute, Jean-François Perrault, Senior Vice-President & Chief Economist, speaks with Ravina Bains, Senior Vice President & National Head, Mid-Market, Canadian Commercial Banking to break down whether these changes could fuel meaningful growth in the Canadian economy as well as how the tax changes could affect decisions for the country’s businesses.  

They also discuss which businesses might benefit most, how factors like business confidence and access to capital could affect the success of the new measures, and how this all fits into Canada’s bid to boost its international competitiveness and improve productivity. 

Key moments: 

00:01:27 – JF provides an overview of Canada’s recent economic issues that prompted recent policy proposals 
00:02:59 – JF’s main takeaways from the measures announced at the Canada Investment Summit 
00:04:45 – JF explains how these changes affect our competitiveness relative to other G7 nations 
00:05:24 – Ravina on the ‘cautiously positive’ reaction she’s seen from businesses 
00:06:41 – Ravina explains the practical impact the changes could make for businesses looking to invest 
00:08:13 – Ravina identifies which businesses and sectors could benefit most 
00:09:09 – How these changes could impact Canada’s broader economic situation in JF’s view 
00:09:53 – The importance of business sentiment in investment decisions, even with new deductions 
00:11:43 – Ravina on how these changes address longstanding issues Canadian businesses have faced and what else is needed 
00:12:36 – How investment readiness will impact business outcomes in coming years 
00:13:02 – How Ravina sees the new tax measures fitting into wider strategic decisions for businesses 
00:13:51 – JF on whether the Productivity Mega Deduction will really boost productivity 
00:14:59 – What other factors JF thinks are necessary for the new measures to succeed 
00:16:06 – Ravina’s main takeaways for businesses in Canada 
00:16:58 – JF’s biggest takeaway from the proposed deduction

Canada has the resources and expertise to become an energy superpower. But realizing that potential will depend on whether the country can attract investment, build major projects and create the reliable energy system our economy will need in the years ahead. 

In the first episode of The Growth Lens by Scotia Growth Institute, Peter Tertzakian, leading energy economist with Studio.Energy and the Institute’s Strategic Advisor, sits down the Institute’s Global Head of Research Patrick Bryden to discuss the changing landscape for Canada’s energy sector and the impact of the landmark Canada Investment Summit on the road ahead.  

They discuss the main takeaways from the summit – where Tertzakian moderated the energy panel –  and what the federal government’s moves to court international investors could mean for Canada’s energy sector and broader economic resilience. 

They also discuss new policy proposals aimed at incentivizing investment, how Canada can shift from momentum to execution, moving quickly while upholding environmental protections and Indigenous consultation, and what the future holds for energy projects and other ambitious initiatives across the country. 

They also explore Canada’s progress on major projects so far and what else needs to be done for projects to go from ambition to reality. 

Related content: 

• Building Canada Initiatives: Year One Progress Report — The Shovels Are Calling 

• Building Canada Initiatives: The World Needs More Canada – Particularly its Critical Minerals and Mining Capabilities 

 Key moments this episode: 

00:01:45 – Peter’s takeaways from the Canada Investment Summit 

00:03:36 – Peter’s read of the changing attitude towards energy and major projects in Canada internally and to prospective international investors 

00:07:12 – Understanding the regulatory process in Canada and the importance of Indigenous participation 

00:08:54 – How regulatory streamlining and a competitive corporate tax structure can increase Canada’s economic resilience 

00:11:40 – The imperative for major changes in Canada and why it matters for all Canadians 

00:13:54 – Discussion of the report for the Scotia Growth Institute analyzing progress on major projects in Canada 

00:17:44 – How to actually assess the progress of major projects 

00:20:32 – Potential challenges Canada faces in executing its ambitious major projects agenda and how policymakers and institutions can respond 

00:27:03 – How Canada can differentiate itself to compete globally 

00:30:05 – How the Scotia Growth Institute’s work is providing informed perspectives on Canada’s growth ambitions 

00:32:25 – How sustainability and Indigenous consultation fit into conversations on economic growth 

00:35:00 – Peter and Patrick’s optimism about Canada’s ability to deliver on its ambitions 

00:37:54 – Peter compares Canada’s current situation to five to ten years ago 

Canada is at a pivotal moment in a time of rapid economic and geopolitical change, and the country’s next chapter will be determined by the path taken today.  

The Scotia Growth Institute is dedicated to advancing conversations about the ideas, policies, investments, and innovations that drive long-term economic growth.  

The Growth Lens, a new podcast by the Scotia Growth Institute, explores the forces shaping economic growth in Canada and North America. Through conversations with business leaders, policymakers, economists, researchers, and innovators, the podcast examines the ideas and decisions that influence prosperity, competitiveness, and long-term economic performance. 

Each episode takes an in-depth look at topics ranging from productivity and investment to trade, infrastructure, technology, housing and energy. Rather than focusing on short-term news cycles, the podcast examines what drives sustainable growth and what it will take to build a stronger, more competitive economy for Canadians. 

The goal of The Growth Lens by the Scotia Growth Institute is to foster thoughtful conversation, challenge assumptions, and highlight practical solutions that can support economic growth and opportunity. 

At a time when countries around the world are competing for talent, capital, and innovation, understanding the drivers of growth in Canada has never been more important. 

This podcast provides a forum for those conversations, helping listeners better understand the opportunities, challenges, and choices that will shape Canada's economic future.