IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed
Notas do episódio
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.
-----
JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK!
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks
00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history
06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age
13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions
18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think
21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows
27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history
30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions
35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions
39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger
44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend
47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008
51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks
56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger
Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here