LIVE: Russian airspace left unprotected, key development in Lyman and Putin bleeds troops and money

Recorded live at Carls in Oslo in cooperation with the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), host Tormod Malvin Sæther moderates a panel featuring senior researcher Tor Bukkvoll from the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), innovation specialist and former Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandra Azarkhina, and missile and defense researcher Fabian Hoffmann from IFS.

The panel explores the military realities along the frontline in Donbas. Despite Russia's demographic advantage, Moscow's advance has ground to a near-complete halt, with Ukrainian forces successfully blocking encirclement attempts around key logistical strongholds near Lyman. Meanwhile, Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov repeatedly fabricates claims of full control over territories without Russian presence. Bukkvoll assesses whether Vladimir Putin has privately realized that a total victory over Ukrainian independence is unattainable, and what talk of a frozen frontline actually implies.

The discussion shifts to the skies, where Ukraine faces nightly barrages of glide bombs and Shahed swarms striking civilian infrastructure in Kyiv. Hoffmann outlines the structural dilemma of air defense: offensive saturation strikes hold a built-in economic and operational advantage over Western interceptor systems, leaving Western production lines under severe strain.

Simultaneously, Russia's own airspace has become porous. Armed with Starlink-enabled mid-range strike drones, Project Freya air defenses, and developing ballistic systems like the FP-7 and FP-9, Ukraine is aggressively targeting the financial lifeline of the Russian invasion: oil refineries and fuel depots deep behind the frontline. Azarkhina shares frontline perspectives from the Air Force, civil endurance in Kyiv, and the transformation of the armed forces under Commander Mykhailo Drapaty.

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