Benchmark Breakfast #2 | November 12, 2026
Notas do episódio
Let them eat pancakes! Jack and Ev give updates on the Anthropic IPO: the initial price range, the amended S-1 showing $81B run rate at the end of October, and what it means for how the stock actually trades. They get into the Jensen Huang spy allegations, what it costs the open source ecosystem if Nvidia’s most important advocate goes quiet, and why American open source just became a lot more strategically critical. They run through the AI trade unwind, the CapEx math behind it, and why the revenues from the AI ecosystem aren’t yet big enough to justify the buildout being contemplated. From the midterms: a Gallup poll showing the US at 36% AI optimism against China’s 93%, the Amazon HQ2 role reversal, and what the Metis, Louisiana data center deal shows about how that relationship can actually work. They close on the $60B VC fundraising wave hitting in the next 1–4 months from firms that raised just 12 months ago, reflexivity in private markets and why seed valuations may never fully reset, and what Sequoia’s restructure is really signaling about firm identity.
Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:42) Anthropic IPO pricing
(2:02) S-1 amended: $81B run rate
(4:08) Zooming out without Twitter
(5:10) Ev’s IPO prediction
(8:37) Structural volatility of AI labs
(10:31) Jensen Huang and the spy allegations
(13:22) Commoditize your complement
(15:31) Winners and losers from the Jensen news
(18:28) AI trade pulls back
(21:37) 70GW to 40–50GW
(23:00) Buyers of tokens and diffusion
(29:02) The RSI unlock
(30:37) Midterms: Democratic sweep
(31:47) America hates AI and data centers
(35:35) Amazon HQ2 role reversal
(38:13) Gallup poll: China vs. US on AI
(41:28) $60B in VC in the next 1–4 months
(43:08) Mega funds squeezing mid-size funds
(45:49) Reflexivity and the traffic wave
(51:03) Seeds are permanently expensive
(56:16) Sequoia’s restructure
(1:01:11) Product recs: Tesla YL and iPhone Duo
Links:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/state-of-the-themes-556
https://news.gallup.com/poll/714593/optimism-globally-widespread-despite-uneven.aspx