Uncapped #48 | Tarek Mansour from Kalshi
Notas do episódio
Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market exchange valued at $22B in 2026 where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events – things like inflation prints, Fed decisions, elections, or weather events. Instead of betting against a house, users trade against each other in a market, and prices reflect the collective probability of an outcome happening.
Before starting Kalshi, Tarek worked as a quantitative trader at Goldman Sachs as a structured credit and equities analyst and at Citadel as a global macro trader. During his time at these firms, he realized a common thread: a lot of trading stemmed from an opinion on a future event.
We covered the idea behind prediction markets and how they offer a more direct way to trade on beliefs about the future. The conversation follows the long, difficult path to building a regulated exchange in the U.S., from early skepticism to ultimately winning a landmark legal battle. We also discuss how these markets can improve forecasting, enable new forms of hedging, and change how information gets priced.
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Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:23) Kalshi’s genesis
(5:05) Regulation-focused from inception
(11:06) Suing the government
(18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets
(20:58) Defining insider trading
(25:38) Incentive structure of the system
(32:40) Investing vs. trading
(35:31) Hedging use cases
(41:38) Scaling a lean team
(44:02) Defining Kalshi’s culture
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Links:
https://x.com/jaltma
https://x.com/mansourtarek_
https://kalshi.com/
https://uncappedpod.com/
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