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一轮反弹看透完整猪周期:周期运转规律梳理与普通投资者实操方法

July 20, 2026 · 1 h

Show notes

本期嘉宾:
国泰海通农业分析师 巩健
大家好,欢迎来到《大方谈钱》,这是一档由华夏基金出品的播客栏目。
近期猪价有一波非常明显的反弹,引起了很多投资者的关注。
我们特别邀请到了国泰海通农业分析师巩健巩总来帮我们分析一下猪价背后所对应的猪周期的投资逻辑,欢迎!
Timeline:
猪价反弹的三重逻辑与全行业深度亏损
01:50 反弹背后的三股力量:恐慌情绪、季节规律与补库需求
03:20 猪价为何一度跌至 2007 年以来最低点?
04:19 反弹到 11 元,为什么全行业仍在亏损?
04:58 十个月生产滞后期:理解猪周期的起点
供给端的结构变化如何改写养猪业
07:29 洪水、极端天气和厄尔尼诺,还能显著影响生猪供给吗?
09:32 国内养猪效率和水平,以及饲料成本为何仍是短板?
11:35 从农村散养到专业养殖:生猪产业的 4∶3∶3 格局
13:43 成本与防疫对全国养殖地域分布的改...去小宇宙查看完整单集简介
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