UK Budget: What markets may be missing

Ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, the consensus view is that higher borrowing costs and a weaker fiscal backdrop have left the Chancellor of the Exchequer with little room to manoeuvre. But what if markets are focusing on the wrong part of the story?

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey sits down with Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, to examine why expectations of a sharp squeeze of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom may be overstated. While higher gilt yields have dominated the debate, stronger nominal earnings and tax receipts could leave the Chancellor in a more resilient position than many investors assume, at least for now.

The conversation explores the outlook for inflation, interest rates and the UK Budget, alongside signs of stronger business investment, the potential productivity benefits of AI and why the UK may be emerging as a relative source of stability in Europe.

For investors, businesses and households alike, the key question is whether the prevailing narrative on the UK has become too negative and what that could mean for growth, markets and policy in the months ahead.

This episode was recorded on Wednesday 7 October at 10:30am British Summer Time.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Brexit, Burnham and Britain's next decade

• French bonds: OAT of control

• Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Headwinds on the horizon

• The direct fiscal effects of quantitative easing and tightening

• UK Rates Strategy: Chancellor Healey meets the bond market: ‘let sleeping dogs lie’

Important Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.