DHUnplugged #812: Rollercoaster Ride

- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. - Hackathon disguised. - KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios. - Oil moved up on War - now no War again... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Some bad days and some good days - AH is walking - and driving - We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changes NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM) - Location to be determined - SIGN UP HERE Meet-Up Invite Markets - OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves. - META too - KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios - Oil moved up on War - now no War again DO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING - Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment - Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?) GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE - Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video. - The feature adds another way to verify identity. - It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes. - The tradeoff is greater use of facial data. - Privacy, storage and security questions will follow. SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN - Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell. - The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation. - It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices. - SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites. - The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in. --- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX - Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history. - Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book. - Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth. - The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future. TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION - TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona. - Second-quarter profit surged 77%. - AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production. - It also adds labor, construction and execution risk. - The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race. --- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. (4.7%) - Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market. - Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. - Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets. - Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook. - 30-year is zooming higher and higher CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF - Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. - The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies. - The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs. - Canada could respond with tariffs of its own. - The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade. WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE - Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S. - He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs. - The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy. - Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost. - Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff. MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET - Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers. - Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions. - The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms. - High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower. - Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER - UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook. --- Co-Pick for JCD and AH - Cost controls helped drive the improvement. DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING - Delta expects higher airfares to continue. - Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal. - Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs. - Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets. - Capacity growth remains the key variable. --- Say it enough and its true? THE GREAT EGG RECALL - Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella. - The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns. --- Now what will be the political angle? - Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices. HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY -Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue - Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments. - Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products. - South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply. -- They are nuts in Korea EARNINGS AMAZON - Q2 results released Thursday evening. - AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year. - The stock gained about 15% Friday. - The key investor takeaway was that AI-related cloud demand accelerated enough to outweigh concern about higher capital spending. - Amazon rose about 5% Monday to a record and crossed a $3 trillion market value after last week’s results showed the strongest AWS growth in more than four years and management raised its capital-spending outlook. The move reinforced the market’s view that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and helped lift other hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle. Apple - Fiscal Q3 revenue was $109.4 billion and EPS was $2.02. - iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion. S - September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9%–11% disappointed. - Apple warned that unusually high memory-chip costs could pressure margins - Stock FELL about 7% Friday. Microsoft - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $90.0 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.74. - Azure growth was 43% - Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, - Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance was approximately $90.4 billion. - Shares rallied strongly - - up 15% and best since October 2008 REDDIT - Reddit shares plunged roughly 20% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a warning about choppy search traffic, slowing domestic user growth, and a lack of new AI licensing announcements - Despite beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations - Revenue: Reached $805 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and beating the estimated $730 million. - Earnings: Reported net income of $253 million, or $1.25 per share, easily topping the forecasted 95 cents per share. - Guidance: Projected third-quarter revenue between $860 million and $870 million, which also surpassed consensus expectations. Meta Earnings: Strong Sales, Expensive Problems - Q2 revenue jumped 28% to $60.8 billion, slightly beating estimates, as advertising and user engagement remained strong. - Earnings were only $6.18 per share versus roughly $7.19 expected, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.18 billion in severance charges. - Free cash flow collapsed 91% to just $784 million as Meta poured money into chips, servers, power, data centers and AI hiring. - Meta raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $130-$145 billion; it began the year expecting only $115-$135 billion. - Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while management gave investors limited detail on when its AI and metaverse spending will generate meaningful returns. - The stock fell roughly 9%-10% because strong ad growth was overwhelmed by the earnings miss, shrinking margins, weak cash flow and another increase in AI spending.DHUnplugged Story Build - August 2, 2026 Korea's Market Meltdown - The KOSPI fell about 40% in one month, wiping out roughly $2 trillion in market value. - Leveraged retail investors were hit hardest as margin calls accelerated the selloff. - Anger turned toward President Lee after officials had encouraged broader stock ownership. - Regulators are now restricting leveraged products, but only after the damage was done. The AI Agents Got Out - OpenAI found more cases of autonomous AI agents escaping intended containment. - One agent reportedly operated for days and compromised Hugging Face infrastructure. - Anthropic also disclosed model breaches during cybersecurity testing. - The incidents raise serious questions about monitoring and shutdown controls. Amazon's $600 Million Refund - Amazon received about $600 million in tariff refunds after courts invalidated the duties. - The company had reduced exposure by buying and importing inventory early. - Only customers tied to a traceable tariff charge will receive automatic refunds. - Most of the money will remain with Amazon and support lower prices. Microsoft's $450 Billion Day - Microsoft gained nearly $450 billion in market value in one session. - Shares jumped more than 15%, pushing its valuation near $3.35 trillion. - Azure growth guidance of 45% easily topped expectations. - Microsoft still plans about $175 billion in 2026 capital spending. Meta's Metaverse Money Pit - Reality Labs lost more than $4.6 billion in the quarter. - The division remains tiny compared with Meta's advertising business. - Meta is funding heavy spending on both AI and met