Skip to content

The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup

October 23, 2026 · 57 min

Show notes

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?


This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.


We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!


TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two

01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%

02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up

05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case

09:45 Reading The Oil Curve

12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs

16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries

20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through

23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions

29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan

36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices

39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?

44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?

54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto


FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks


SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto


RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing


› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era


› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api


EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events


DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

All episodes of Forward Guidance

Settings

Display

Language

Decides which stations you see first on the home page.

History

Recently played stations and episodes and your latest searches are only stored in this browser.

Notifications

A short notice when a podcast you follow has a new episode. Turn off single podcasts with the bell on their page.

Account

Save favorites – in the app and on the website.

Keyboard shortcuts

/
Open search
Space
Play or pause
← →
In the player: back 15 s, forward 30 s (episodes) · in a row: next tile
↑ ↓
In a row: target within the tile
Home / End
In a row: first or last tile
Esc
Close window or menu
?
This overview
Now playing

Go to station page

Play next

    Add episodes with “Play next” – they play after the current episode.