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The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup

July 3, 2026 · 47 min

Show notes

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.


This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.


We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!



TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking?

12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive

14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report

18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky?

24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed?

27:54 How We're Trading This

32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning?

38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech

40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto

44:17 July 4th And The World Cup



FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks



RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link



EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events



Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari



DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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