The Strongman Loser
Show notes
Mailbag episode next week!!! This week - Elections. Everywhere. Everybody wants a strongman story but the strongmen keep losing and going home! Lula came back from behind against Flávio Bolsonaro. Israel turned out 77.7% of their entire voter base and still nobody has 61 seats. The US is about to do some real soul-searching, and Cousin Matt Gertken of BCA Research joins the cousinly love to call the Senate. My cousin in Christ, polls can't model turnout. And this year, turnout is angry.
Important Notes:
Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on October 25. The Student List, a slate of non-party experts assembled by the movement that formed after the November 2024 canopy collapse at Novi Sad's railway station, won a majority of the 250 seats. Aleksandar Vučić, who had stepped down as president in September to lead his party's campaign, conceded that night.
Brazil's runoff was the same day. Lula, who trailed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair's son, in the first round, won about 51.7% to 48.3%. Flávio has disputed the result.
Israel voted on October 27. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the opposition around Gadi Eisenkot about 48 and the Arab parties 19, so no camp has the 61 it needs to govern.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro/Welcome
(01:03) - Serbia's students beat Vučić
(06:59) - Strongmen, autocrats and who leaves office
(13:14) - Brazil and the "strongman loser"
(30:33) - Israel: record turnout, no majority
(43:51) - Geopolitical QE and Israel's next decade
(51:46) - Where polls come from
(55:43) - Quick-fire Senate predictions
(01:07:28) - Final thoughts: the midterms and 2028
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Referenced in the Show:
Matt Gertken - https://www.bcaresearch.com/strategists/matt-gertken
Elections - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro