Why Scaling Prediction Cannot Create Intelligence - Alexander Mattick
Show notes
Alexander Mattick is a researcher at Fraunhofer IIS and a PhD researcher at the University of Technology Nuremberg (UTN), and a regular on Yannic Kilcher's Discord. He first came on MLST in 2022, after helping research the Yann LeCun and Randall Balestriero episode on interpolation.
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Alexander treats inference as the thread running through modern machine learning: once you have a model, what does it cost to get an answer out of it? He works through Monte Carlo, GFlowNets, energy-based models, diffusion, normalising flows and flow matching, with four short explainers he recorded himself. He is blunt about energy-based models: you can sample from them in principle, but it is rarely worth the compute. JEPA and "world model", he says, are closer to branding than to technical categories.
Next: theories of deep learning, none of which he thinks predicts enough yet to guide practice, then reinforcement learning.
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0:00 Cold open: information is expensive
0:51 Welcome back, Alexander Mattic
2:08 Alexander's research background
2:50 Inference: densities, sampling and Monte Carlo
6:42 GFlowNets, energy functions and MCMC
9:45 Explainer: energy-based models
11:03 Why model a density at all?
17:30 From learned energies to flow matching
25:08 Explainers: diffusion and normalising flows
28:33 Are energy-based models generative?
33:22 JEPA, contrastive learning and collapse
41:13 Why non-language modalities need flows
44:51 Inference as search: branch and bound
49:43 Q-learning and delayed consequences
55:14 Flow matching, optimal transport, Fokker-Planck
1:00:03 Explainer: flow matching
1:01:49 AlphaFold, latents and scale versus architecture
1:07:52 Two families of deep learning theory
1:15:04 What a good theory would predict
1:23:53 The manifold hypothesis and compression
1:28:25 Is reward enough?
1:32:01 Control theory versus reinforcement learning
1:37:22 The Bitter Lesson and expensive information
1:42:08 Constrained RL: the constrained MDP toolbox
1:50:12 Creativity as constrained search
1:55:44 Reality is protean: when abstractions hold
2:00:32 What is a world model?
2:04:38 Prediction is not control
2:08:13 Robot demos, MPC and reliability
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REFERENCES:
[6:55] GFlowNets (Bengio et al., 2021)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.04399
[38:46] Contrastive Self-Supervised Learning (Anand, 2020)
https://ankeshanand.com/blog/2020/01/26/contrative-self-supervised-learning.html
[38:56] LeJEPA (Balestriero and LeCun, 2025)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.08544v3
[47:10] RL for Node Selection in Branch-and-Bound (Mattick)
https://openreview.net/forum?id=0ez68a5UqI
[56:20] Flow Matching for Generative Modeling
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02747v2
[1:12:41] Disentangling feature and lazy training in deep neural networks
https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08034v4
[1:31:05] Reward is enough (Silver)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2021.103535
[1:35:12] Learning ReLU networks to high uniform accuracy is intractable (Berner et al.)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.13531v2
[1:40:20] Dota 2 with Large Scale Deep RL
https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06680v1
[1:45:41] Constrained Update Projection for Safe Policy Optimization (Yang et al., 2022)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.07089
[1:46:11] SafeMPO (ICLR 2026)
https://openreview.net/forum?id=1m0EU6QXj6
[1:50:17] Why Creativity Cannot Be Interpolated
https://archive.mlst.ai/paper/why-creativity-cannot-be-interpolated/
[1:51:39] Invalid Action Masking (Huang and Ontañón)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14171
[2:00:04] Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (Jaynes, 2003)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/probability-theory/9CA08E224FF30123304E6D8935CF1A99
[2:01:53] Training Agents Inside of Scalable World Models (Hafner et al., 2025)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24527v1
[2:03:43] World Models (Ha and Schmidhuber, 2018)
https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.10122v4