Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

What if making better decisions has less to do with being right and more to do with thinking in probabilities?

In this episode, Dave and Poppy explore Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a fascinating book that challenges the way we make decisions by showing that uncertainty is a part of everyday life, not something to fear.

They unpack Duke’s approach to decision-making, explaining why even the best choices can sometimes produce poor outcomes, while bad decisions can occasionally seem successful.

The conversation explores the importance of separating the quality of a decision from the result, helping us learn from experience without being misled by luck or chance. Dave and Poppy discuss how adopting a probabilistic mindset can reduce overconfidence, improve judgement, and lead to wiser choices in business, relationships, and personal life.

The hosts also reflect on the value of curiosity, intellectual humility, and being willing to change your mind when new evidence emerges. They explore how questioning assumptions and embracing uncertainty can strengthen confidence rather than weaken it.

This episode is thought-provoking, practical, and full of valuable insights. If you want to make smarter decisions, think more clearly under pressure, and navigate uncertainty with greater confidence, this conversation is one you won’t want to miss.

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Read the full deep dive and more on The Cognitive Blog, explore everything we make at biglrizmedia.com, or suggest a book for a future episode.

Until next time, keep your mind set in stone and your curiosity open.

Mind Set in Stone is a Big L Riz Media Group podcast.